Hypothetical Scenario - India vs Pak -China War (Conventional)

[DESERT FIGHTER]

I came across this excellent analysis in Quora. Pretty realistic @MilSpec , @Irfan Baloch @Horus @Nicky G

Considering a full fledged war without nukes. And the UN does little.

China asks Pakistan to ready its forces a fortnight prior to the war. Chinese generals realize that it's not going to be a piece of cake, and they are suspicious about Vietnam and Japan.

"...that China must therefore, declare a state of war with India..."

Day 1 (Outbreak of Hostilities)

• Chinese air force pounds Indian frontier positions in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, followed by strikes on weapon factories in West Bengal.
• Chinese mass up their forces on their side of the border. The Chinese promise Pakistan some real action with India. (It's gonna be too real)

Day 2 (Enter Pakistan)

• The Chinese attack along the line in Ladakh, where they outnumber Indians by 3:1, which is quite low in such a treacherous area. They clearly require more efforts. Indians will hold their posts here... at least for a few days.
• US navy increases patrols in the Pacific. World leaders ask both sides to maintain peace, but are ignored.
• Pakistan come to aid to their iron brother. Looks like somehow Indians were prepared for this. Our mechanized units tear up the border from Rajasthan. Their sole purpose is to divide Pakistan into two. And they will do it soon.

Day 3

• Indians go on defensive against PLA. Dogfights all along the border.
• Evacuation of civilians starts from most of the bordering states in the north.
• Pakistan attacks vital Indian airfields. Indians retaliate by bombing Karachi.
• India positions its massive armies to defend against bigger Chinese armies near Siliguri.

Day 5

• Indian forces overcome tough resistance and take Gujranwala in Pakistan. Mechanized units take Bahawalpur. Indians rejoice.
• Indian navy blockades Karachi. Pakistan worried. Chinese spotted in the Indian ocean
• Chinese forces take Indian frontier posts in the North east, and outnumber Indians at 6:1 at various places.
• Militants on rampage throughout NE.

Day 7

• US issues a partial embargo on China.
• Most of the Islamic countries declare that they will back Pakistan.
• Chinese navy attacks Vishakhapatnam. Indians throw everything at them. Our blockade causes serious trouble in Pakistan by now. Their leadership vows to fight to the end.

Day 10

• Nepal denies military access to both India and China. Bhutan too.
• Indian air force bombs vital installations in Pakistan and special forces rampage throughout Baluchistan. China takes Tawang.
• India takes out Gwadar port after massive casualties.
• PAF bombs Amritsar, Bhatinda, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer and Sirsa.

Day 15

• Indians reinforce their positions in Ladakh quickly and send in some elite mountain troops to attack Chinese posts from Himachal border, to divert their attention.
• Indians act fast and block the Straits of Malacca. China may be in real trouble now. Stock markets become uneasy. Chinese armored units cross into ***.
• Indian air force bombs Karakoram Highway and take it out. This was really vital to Pakistan. Heavy losses to the Indians, but the job's done.

Day 17

• Indian forces finally take over Lahore and advance towards Islamabad.
• A Pakistani attack on Srinagar fails. IAF bombs Kashgar in China.
• China takes out major roads in J&K and raids all northern cities.

Day 20

• Indians take Sialkot in a surprise attack. Mechanized units rush towards Multan. Pakistan in real trouble
• Pakistan accepts peace and Indian forces recalled from Western front.
• The Chinese navy throw everything at Indians in Malacca Straits. Indians retreat.
• Indians counterattack in Ladakh sector and take back some of the posts. Another attack to take back vital choke points in the North east fails.

Day 22

• IAF takes out some airfields in Tibet.
• Chinese react by bombing Patna, Lucknow, Meerut, Kanpur, Ambala, Guwahati. Nepal angry about the Chinese crossing into its airspace, but there's nothing they can do. Indian public aroused by a patriotic zeal.

Day 24

• Indian economy starting to shake. Conscription further deteriorates the situation.
• The Chinese continue to bomb Indian cities, which leads to an international outcry.
• US and NATO countries issue a trade embargo on China
• Russians too issue a partial embargo on China and increase their presence along the border
• Indian navy tired by now of defending such a long coastline. They embark on one more heroic effort and load BrahMos missiles. I wonder what they are up to...

Day 27

• Indian navy launches a surprise attack on the naval bases in Southern China.
• Indian commandos raid Chinese bases deep inside Tibet.
• Chinese bomb NCR.

Day 30

• Indian air force bombs industrial ares in Chongqing, Guangzhou. China suspicious that Vietnam is involved. It is.
• Indians ask for military access from Taiwan and South Korea. They refuse.
• Someone convinces Uighur and Tibetan people to raid administrative offices and police stations. It's India.

Day 33

• Chinese say that they might consider a peace offer, with large parts of Arunachal Pradesh annexed plus reparations. Indians reject the peace proposal.
• Chinese navy attacks Chennai, Vishakhapatnam and Mumbai. Indian public beginning to get frustrated.
• Chinese air force attacks Vietnamese airbases in the north after Chongqing is raided again.
• Stock markets are falling at an amazing rate. All ASEAN countries are threatened after raid on Vietnamese airfields. Japan starts providing aid to India.

Day 36

• Indian navy is exhausted by now. The Chinese control upper Assam.
• The best weapon India has is its bad roads, which slow down the Chinese.
• Many of the Indian airbases are completely obliterated by now. Indian economy goes on a free fall.

Day 40

• The Chinese take Arunachal Pradesh. The Indian premier vows to take it back.

"...We'll take back every inch of our land back from the Chinese invaders..."

• Chinese navy attacks Andaman and Nicobar. ASEAN countries think about granting India military access.
• Chinese air force bombs NCR, Kolkata.
• A counterattack in Assam by India fails miserably. Indians blow up all major roads and railroads to slow down the Chinese.
• China issues conscription for everyone above 21.
• US thinks of a plan and grins...

Day 45

• US and NATO countries start funding rebels in China, Tibetans and Uighurs.
• Ferocious battles rage on in the mountains. Chinese take Dibrugarh in Assam.
• China attack Vietnamese positions to teach them a lesson (like they tried in 1979) and fortifies the islands it already occupies like the Senkakus.
• Vietnamese foil an attack on Haiphong in the north. China withdraws.
• Pakistan in turmoil even after the war. A civil war begins. The Grand Alliance funds the liberals.
• PLA overcomes Indian defences in Northern Sikkim at last and advances towards the Silguri Corridor, which will be heavily defended.

Day 47

• China evaluates it's gains and losses. It has gained large parts of Arunachal and Assam, but at a big cost.
• The Chinese know that if the war stretches on, the US will find an excuse to get involved .

Day 50

• Indian defenders race past the Silguri corridor and prepare to defend the mainland with whatever they got.
• Indian economy on verge of total collapse. Ceasefire announced by China. Pre war borders established.

Aftermath

• Stable and clear border between India, Pakistan and China. Hopefully.
• China's plans of world hegemony seriously hampered.
• Stature of US greatly increased. They will be the real winners.
• Indian economy goes back at least ten years. Colossal manpower losses, but our elephant will be back on track soon.
• Chinese growth story stopped. So China loses most in economic terms.
• Indian foreign policy undergoes a drastic change.
• Chinese leadership cracks down on Tibetans and Uighurs.
• India and Vietnam maintain their newfound alliance and are joined by Japan and ASEAN
• Baluchistan secedes from Pakistan. Pakistan engaged in another war with them soon after.
• A great loss of credibility of the UN.

Day 51:

You wake the fcuk up!

 

[Icewolf]

Forget 50 days India will not survive for a week

 

[Areesh]

This is how I see it:

A skinny starving individual with 56 kids raising fists at two other guys -- with none of em givin a sh1t.


Why does the skinny guy do that? To fool his 56 kids and divert their attention from his failure... That's modi ..

Lol after Mumbai Attacks best plan IA had was to capture Fort Abbas and then retain it, just to humiliate PA. Fort Abbas which is a very small town and has no military value and is situated very close Indo-Pak border. Even IA chief was full of doubts about that plan and was not confident. And here Indians are capturing Sialkot, Gujranwala, Lahore, Bahwalpur and are openly blocking and bombing Karachi, trying to divide Pakistan into two from the Sindh-Rajastan side, Destroy Gawadar, Destroy KKH, send special forces in Baluchistan and Pakistan's best response is that it is bombing Amritsar and few other small Indian towns.

Even if someone like Zardari would be head of this country, this is not possible.

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

It is not a war game scenario, it is more like a computer game scenario from Age-Of-Empires with cheat codes on.

Shhh... indian arnoured corps with spare shortage probe t-90s and 1500 blind t-72s tear apart Pakistan... Capturing gujranwala ,Bahawalpur eyc etc...


Meanwhile in reality:


Shits bricks .. Enough to provide material for 2.45 billion further population of ibdia.

 

[NKVD]

Our first thermonuclear test in 1967 had a yield of 3.3 megatons.

That was our FIRST thermonuclear test.

How can your test fizzle so badly that the explosive power is only as much as a regular 20kt fission warhead? There is a pretty obvious difference in terms of explosive power between a fission bomb and a thermonuclear warhead.

The exact yield of the blast was

Btw 45 kt to 58Kt Even Americans claims it



The nuclear weapon blast yields still remains highly debatable subject between the American physicists and their Indian counterparts.[42][43] Approximating the exact blast yields are difficult and the question of politicizing further disputes the numbers of the nuclear yields.[7] The BARC approximated the blast yields at 58 kilotons of TNT (240 TJ) that were obtained from the at the site 3 km from the test shafts on 11 May 1998. The BARC described the tests as a "complete success, and it was determined that all the devices and their components had performed flawlessly."[7] On 17 May 1998, Abdul Kalam and R. Chidambaram held the press conference to validates BARC data to remove all doubts.[7]
At this press conference, Indian nuclear physicists maintained that the two fission bombs produced the yields of 15 kilotons of TNT (63 TJ) and 0.31 kilotons of TNT (1.3 TJ).[7] The thermonuclear bomb's yield was predicted with energy equivalent of 45 kilotons of TNT (190 TJ); the 15kt force was generated from the fission bombs and 30kt from the fusion process. Abdul Kalam also claimed that the thermonuclear bomb's yield was was designed to be at 200 kilotons of TNT (840 TJ) but it had to reduced to 45 kilotons of TNT (190 TJ) to minimize seismic damage to villages near the test range; the closest village to the test range, Khetolai, was a mere 55 kilometres (3.1 mi) away.[7] American physicists contested the blast results and noted that thermonuclear bomb's yield was in the range between 29–35 kilotons of TNT (120–150 TJ) and fission bomb was nearly at 12 kilotons of TNT (50 TJ).

 

[NKVD]

Forget 50 days India will not survive for a week

I THINK Pakistan couldn't survive a day without nukes last time 90000 surrender against mere few thousand indian soilders

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The exact yield of the blast was

Btw 45 kt to 58Kt Even Americans claims it



The nuclear weapon blast yields still remains highly debatable subject between the American physicists and their Indian counterparts.[42][43] Approximating the exact blast yields are difficult and the question of politicizing further disputes the numbers of the nuclear yields.[7] The BARC approximated the blast yields at 58 kilotons of TNT (240 TJ) that were obtained from the at the site 3 km from the test shafts on 11 May 1998. The BARC described the tests as a "complete success, and it was determined that all the devices and their components had performed flawlessly."[7] On 17 May 1998, Abdul Kalam and R. Chidambaram held the press conference to validates BARC data to remove all doubts.[7]
At this press conference, Indian nuclear physicists maintained that the two fission bombs produced the yields of 15 kilotons of TNT (63 TJ) and 0.31 kilotons of TNT (1.3 TJ).[7] The thermonuclear bomb's yield was predicted with energy equivalent of 45 kilotons of TNT (190 TJ); the 15kt force was generated from the fission bombs and 30kt from the fusion process. Abdul Kalam also claimed that the thermonuclear bomb's yield was was designed to be at 200 kilotons of TNT (840 TJ) but it had to reduced to 45 kilotons of TNT (190 TJ) to minimize seismic damage to villages near the test range; the closest village to the test range, Khetolai, was a mere 55 kilometres (3.1 mi) away.[7] American physicists contested the blast results and noted that thermonuclear bomb's yield was in the range between 29–35 kilotons of TNT (120–150 TJ) and fission bomb was nearly at 12 kilotons of TNT (50 TJ).

Is that a joke, even our 1966 FISSION bomb test was 300kt, way out of the range of your fizzled "thermonuclear" test.

And our 1967 (very first) thermonuclear test was 3.3 megatons.

Your numbers indicate nothing more than a regular fission device, not even a boosted fission device.

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

Lol after Mumbai Attacks best plan IA had was to capture Fort Abbas and then retain it, just to humiliate PA. Fort Abbas which is a very small town and has no military value and is situated very close Indo-Pak border. Even IA chief was full of doubts about that plan and was not confident. And here Indians are capturing Sialkot, Gujranwala, Lahore, Bahwalpur and are openly blocking and bombing Karachi, trying to divide Pakistan into two from the Sindh-Rajastan side, Destroy Gawadar, Destroy KKH, send special forces in Baluchistan and Pakistan's best response is that it is bombing Amritsar and few other small Indian towns.

Even if someone like Zardari would be head of this country, this is not possible.

The reality:

This guy boasted about capturing lahore -- ended up hiding in sugarcane plantation .. And on the verge of losing punjab to Pak-- apart from getting 1/3 of IAF turned into spare parts:

The reality :

Is that a joke, even our 1966 FISSION bomb test was 300kt, way out of the range of your fizzled "thermonuclear" test.

And our 1967 (very first) thermonuclear test was 3.3 megatons.

Your numbers indicate nothing more than a regular fission device, not even a boosted fission device.

How dare you chinese liar..

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

How dare you chinese liar..

Apparently they invented a "thermonuclear" bomb with an explosive yield almost 10 times less than our fission bomb test in 1966.

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

I THINK Pakistan couldn't survive a day without nukes last time 90000 surrender against mere few thousand indian soilders

Quoting fake numbers and a gay argument...

You are a nation of 1.25 billion who always got owned by anybody with a sword... You should be the last one to even quoting a civil war or 71.. Ratio of indian hyenas vs Pak troops in East Pak itself tells us about it.. Aswell as the civil war .. And just 1 SQD of spare starved f-86s that made you shit bricks
Thank you come again.

Apparently they invented a "thermonuclear" bomb with an explosive yield almost 10 times less than our fission bomb test in 1966.

They also invented vedic inter galactic saucers 6000000000 million years ago... Apart from other stuff.

 

[ssethii]

You are correct India looses Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in this scenario but captures certain Pakistan territory.

I assume you have read the full thing?

NASR. Does it ring some bells?

 

[Spectre]

NASR. Does it ring some bells?

I am afraid not.

 

[Icewolf]

I THINK Pakistan couldn't survive a day without nukes last time 90000 surrender against mere few thousand indian soilders

Last time over 1200+ Indian soldiers got killed by faulty guns, faulty artillery exploding in face, friendly fire, and just mere stupidity

2001–02 India–Pakistan standoff - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[C130]

or we can skip right to the end,

 

[Caprxl]

Hypothetical scenario doesn't mean one puts all of his wet dreams in it , like the only role in this shot hypothetical (non nuclear) war scenario of Pakistan is to be there n Destroyed.
21 Guns ki salami us ki Aqal pay jis nay yay bnaya ha