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How's India Doing on Modi Government's First Anniversary?

Another junk thread in defence.pk
What more do you expect from this fellow Haq? His 'musings' are really amusing!

This one had me ROFL :rofl: and I spilled my coffee all over the keyboard! Damn! :hitwall:

It's impossible to be worse than the Indian Congress party for sure.
100% agree! Congress under the dynastic rule of the Congress Party has screwed up the country! But things are looking up, never mind what that silly OP has written which makes no sense at all. Haq must be getting orgasms at the moment posting this crap! He's a victim of his own delusions.
 
Haq's Musings: Is Modi's Honeymoon Over?

Things are not looking so rosy at home for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he continues his world tour with the latest stop in Beijing, China.



Is Modi government's honeymoon already over on its first anniversary at the helm? Has the Indian economy really turned around? Is it really growing faster than China? Are Indian businesses doing better under the new government? Are investors more excited about India's prospects? Has Indian currency recovered to levels before its collapse in 2013? Is India any cleaner than it was last year? To answer these questions, let's look at some data:

1. Revision of GDP methodology by India's Central Statistical Office (CSO) to show it is growing faster than China has drawn serious skepticism, even derision by serious economists around the world. While India's boosters in the West are not only buying but applauding the new figures, Indian policy professionals at the nation's Central Bank and the Finance ministry are having a very hard time believing the new and improved GDP brought to the world by Indian government. Dissenters include Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma, an Indian-American, who has called the new numbers a "bad joke" aimed at a "wholesale rewriting of history".

2. India's exports are continuing to drop. The trade data shows a sharper slowdown (21%) in exports than in imports (13%, due to lower oil prices) for the last reported month (March 2015). There is an overall decline in both for the year too, according toSeeking Alpha.

3. Large scale manufacturing in India continues to disappoint. Growth slowed in April 2015, according to HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. At 51.3 in April, down from 52.1 in March, the headline PMI points to slowing demand.

4. Mumbai stocks are among the worst performing in emerging markets. FII (foreign institutional investments) net outflows gave been of the order of Indian Rs 125 billion (about US$ 2 billion) over the past month. The stock market index has seen the biggest correction of 10 per cent in a short time, according to India's First Post.

5. In spite of Prime Minister Modi's high-profile campaign to improve hygiene, India has been ranked near the bottom on access to clean water and sanitation. India has ranked 92 on Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Index developed by The Water Institute at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Gillings School of Global Public Health in the US, far below Pakistan which ranked near the top in 5th position.

India's Economic Times has recently reported results of a survey of top CEOs. Majority of them say that demand is depressed. "The bonhomie and cheer that greeted the arrival of the Modi government is replaced by a sombre mood and a grim acknowledgement of the realities of doing business in India," reports ET, as it captures the sentiment of the CEOs. The largest engineering conglomerate L and T has said some of its plants are idle as demand for capital goods is very weak. The Aditya Birla Group had deferred its revenue target of $65 billion by 3 years, to 2018.

A recent piece titled "Why India is Not A Buy in Current Environment" published by Seeking Alpha summarizes the current Indian situation as follows:

"While there are some who consider India to be the best emerging market and recommend it as such, my own assessment is different. Whether it's relatively high valuations, weak fundamentals with persistent deficits, government bonds under pressure, weakening currency, rebounding oil prices, declining confidence in the government and so on, India is facing a ton of headwinds going forward. Far too many to be a number one pick among emerging markets."

Modi government has to turn some of its election promises into action. Mr. Modi cannot rely on the benefit of the doubt because his honeymoon period is now over. He will be judged on what he is able to accomplish.

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Haq's Musings: Is Modi's Honeymoon Over?
You had to search for the God pic only right? :D
 
What more do you expect from this fellow Haq? His 'musings' are really amusing!

This one had me ROFL :rofl: and I spilled my coffee all over the keyboard! Damn! :hitwall:
in short for mr riazhaq its a case of"sour grapes"us pe sitam ye ki inka apna mulk to kissi layak raha nahi to goya hindustan ki khilli le ke khud ko tassalli de rahe hain barre miya :D
 
Why exactly? He wrote a full article with sources, and he made many good points.

What makes you call it a "junk thread"? Because it's not pro-India?

By that standard the vast majority of threads in this forum are the same, the difference is that our own defence.pk member took his time to write up this article, using real numbers and sources.
Indian economy to grow at 81 in 201516 UN report
Now either you are with Mr.Haqs super analysis with cherry picked sources or you are with a body with international recognition and A Class analysts.

You decide and let us gauge your acumen. :)
 
At such an advanced age? :what:
Ok, if not orgasms, then it's brain farts of galactic proportions!!
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As you must know economy is not only about imports and exports, but there are many items such as savings, domestic investments, FDI and more. Until the time economy is growing at a faster rate, no need to bother on how to fund the deficit. I would rather bother on how much value is being created on the new investments than on the import-export deficit.

It is not like that India is only country that has this deficit, but there are many including US that has import-export deficit. I would rather take this deficit as opportunity to create more goods and services domestically to fulfill the demand. After all the deficit says there is more demand for goods and services than can be fulfilled by the domestic supply.

I have to give it you how u can portray a bleak picture of recurring yoy import-export deficit into something positive like demand supply equation. :D
 
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A balance of payment crisis can screw up the entire economy.

If you don't have enough US $, you can't import energy which drives the entire modern economy.


Haq's Musings: Goldman's O'Neill "Disappointed" as India "Explodes"

Go get a life man! You post some four year old articles despite the fact the CAD is on a decline in the same four years and is about to turn surplus for the first time after 2004. According to Morgan Stanley estimates, India’s current account will swing into a minor surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2015 on improving terms of trade and decline in gold imports.

India’s Current Account to swing into surplus for the first time since 2004 - Moneylife
 
India runs massive current account deficits. Its imports far outstrip exports year after year. According to the Reserve Bank (RBI) data, in the April-December 2014 period of last fiscal, India's current account deficit stood at $31.1 billion or 2.3% of GDP.

If the outflow of $2 billion a month continues a few more months, India will have very serious trouble funding its huge trade deficits.


Haq's Musings: Can Indian Economy Survive Without Western Money?

India is acturally relieved as oil price is down.

But yes I agree that it is such a farce seeing India is making economic wonder when its exports is falling acompanied by falling industrial output figure. I am just wondering what sectors are boosting the growth, hope it's not their CSO.

Again I am so confused by Indian economy as a whole and the adjustment by GOI made it worse. Those big investment/rating houses may be better positioned but I don't see them featuring their report by data as there's no reliable one out yet, or never.
 
India is acturally relieved as oil price is down.

But yes I agree that it is such a farce seeing India is making economic wonder when its exports is falling acompanied by falling industrial output figure. I am just wondering what sectors are boosting the growth, hope it's not their CSO.

Again I am so confused by Indian economy as a whole and the adjustment by GOI made it worse. Those big investment/rating houses may be better positioned but I don't see them featuring their report by data as there's no reliable one out yet, or never.
the biggest strenth of india is not just its exports but its internal marketwe just dont rely on textiles or agro products but many other things which..khair jane do uknow what i mean :D
 
Why exactly? He wrote a full article with sources, and he made many good points.

What makes you call it a "junk thread"? Because it's not pro-India?

By that standard the vast majority of threads in this forum are the same, the difference is that our own defence.pk member took his time to write up this article, using real numbers and sources.

Because it's no where related to defence or regional security :-/ . I don't even find a word defence on his post .

Yes, most of the post in defence.pk (recently) are totally junk and some of the good articles and debates are hijacked by trolls.
 
After a long run as the emerging market equity sweetheart, investors may be falling out of love with India stocks.

"Prime Minister Modi's victory last May set the stage for a significant amount of reform optimism and encouraged portfolio inflows," HSBC said in a recent note. Now "India is the most over-owned equity market in Asia by mutual funds," it said, citing EPFR data. It cut its rating on the market to underweight from overweight.

"As other markets become more interesting, India could be used as a funding market," HSBC said.

Funds had flowed into the market in a wave of optimism after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept into power promising much-needed reforms. Some of those reforms have hit speed bumps recently, with parliamentary bills aimed at making for businesses to buy land and to reform taxes getting deferred earlier this month.

That may cool some of the optimism of foreign investors whose portfolio flows sent the Sensex surging nearly 29 percent last year, with index shedding around 0.6 percent year-to-date.

The vagaries of portfolio flows aren't the only reason HSBC is looking askance at the market, with the bank also citing concerns about earnings.

"India is one of the markets across the region to have witnessed the highest number of earnings downgrades," HSBC said, noting consensus estimates for this year have fallen by more than 5 percent over the past three months.

"Weaker earnings growth expectations will, by definition, alter earnings based valuations for the market. India's price-to-earnings (P/E) valuations therefore remain elevated. India is currently the second-most expensive market in Asia in terms of 12-month forward P/E," it said.

Bemoaning that it didn't go underweight sooner, Credit Suisse said it appeared to be "paying the price for not heeding our valuation model."

India equities are among Asia's most expensive, the bank said in a note earlier this month.

"We had overridden our valuation model as we believed India combined rising ROE (return on equity) with falling COE (cost of equity). But the ROE recovery appears to have been delayed," Credit Suisse said.

"With investors asking whether it is time to buy India, we suggest not yet," it said, adding that the market's valuations remain among the region's most expensive and year-to-date foreigners remain net buyers.

"Given the downside risks to growth, heightened uncertainty around inflation outlook and slower than expected progress on reforms, we see risk of a more prolonged corrective phase," Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday. But it added, "We see our longer-term positive view on Indian equities firmly intact and remain overweight India in a regional context."

The country's economy is still broadly expected to improve, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in March forecasting growth of 7.8 percent in fiscal 2015-16, up from 7.4 percent in the previous fiscal year, and then rise to 8.2 percent in fiscal 2016-17 as planned reforms start to improve confidence and external demand appears likely to pick up.

India stocks: Is the passion fading?
 

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