How would a US + Allied military intervention in Venezuela crisis play out?

[bosanski vojnik]

I am looking at Venezuela's armed forces and they have a pretty impressive Air Defence network on paper for a Latin American country. Theoretically if a US led MNF force (including the likes of Brazil, Colombia, and Panama etc..) launch a military operation similar to the one that ousted Gaddafi in Libya in 2011 (Use of Air Assets + Cruise missiles mainly) with small number of US marines and NAVY Seals to help local anti-maduro rebels to seize towns, cities, key installations and such how do you think the conflict pan out?

Will it be a military/political success for the US or will Venezuelan legitimate government under Maduro manage to hold out? How will Maduro's allies respond? Will we get a situation similar to Libya conflict or will Russia make sure Venezuela's 100,000 strong military is adequately resupplied and supported in the international arena?

Here are some of the aircraft and weapons systems that may be involved by both sides in a hypothetical conflict:

Venezuela

S-300VM - 12 batteries
Buk M2 - 7 batteries
SA-3 Neva P2M - 24 batteries
TOR M1 - alleged?
ZSU-23-2 - 100 ~
Plus Various MANPADS

F-16
SU-30MK

US/MNF
F-35
FA-18
F-16
F-15E
B-1
B-52
F-22

+ numerous cruise missiles, sea launched, air launched, stand off weapons, glide bombs etc..

could the Venezuelan military hold out such a storm or is the prospect of facing numerous US led air assets and a rebel force on the ground too much for them to take?

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Probably a bloodbath. I could see Russia deliver thousands of Kornet ATGM by ship. American soldiers would pay with their lives. Like it or not, Maduro is legitimate elected president. America backed Guaido has no support in Venezuela.

 

[bosanski vojnik]

one weakness I see in Venezuela's Military is that for a country of their size they have a small amount of artillery systems consisting of:

57 SP artillery 152mm + 155mm
52 MLRS launchers
104 Towed Artillery pieces
plus numerous 120mm Mortars and SP vehicles

Now I know that in a conflict situation operating SP artillery and MLRS systems otuside of S-300 and BUK M2 umbrella would result in complete disaster surely they would need more? losing such systems in quick succession to US Air Strikes or even worse to rebel anti-maduro force would be a major blow and something the Venezualan goverment forces should look at avoiding at all costs.

Probably a bloodbath. I could see Russia deliver thousands of Kornet ATGM by ship. American soldiers would pay with their lives. Like it or not, Maduro is legitimate elected president. America backed Guaido has no support in Venezuela.

I think that Venezuelan government forces could survive a US air campaign but that would depend on Russian response. Putin does not even have to send major military systems to Caracas just resupply the Venezualan goverment army with SAM missiles, Manpads and ATGM's as you stated. I am sure Russia would be looking at interest to see S-300 system in use against US fighters for the first time. Just question is how skilled are Venezuala's SAM operators?

Probably a bloodbath. I could see Russia deliver thousands of Kornet ATGM by ship. American soldiers would pay with their lives. Like it or not, Maduro is legitimate elected president. America backed Guaido has no support in Venezuela.

I think that Venezuelan government forces could survive a US air campaign but that would depend on Russian response. Putin does not even have to send major military systems to Caracas just resupply the Venezualan goverment army with SAM missiles, Manpads and ATGM's as you stated. I am sure Russia would be looking at interest to see S-300 system in use against US fighters for the first time. Just question is how skilled are Venezuala's SAM operators?

 

[undercover JIX]

Important thing is Venezuelan Military is supporting Maduro, Russia is very close to Madoro, so USA Trump will not have an easy target and will try to avoid military intervention, once Russia start sending Ships, and fighters.

Recently Russia tested their long range bombers flights to Venezuela.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Important thing is Venezuelan Military is supporting Maduro, Russia is very close to Madoro, so USA Trump will not have an easy target and will try to avoid military intervention, once Russia start sending Ships, and fighters.

Recently Russia tested their long range bombers flights to Venezuela.

If you think Iraq or Vietnam is bad, Venezuela would be 100 times worse for Americans. Venezuela has biggest oil reserve in the world.

 

[undercover JIX]

If you think Iraq or Vietnam is bad, Venezuela would be 100 times worse for Americans. Venezuela has biggest oil reserve in the world.

I know, and after considering everything else Afghanistan and syria etc situation, USA will think 100000 time before doing all out military intervention.

rite now I am in an Island next to Vene and all are free to enter here, all Vene chicks all over...lol

 

[T-123456]

Many of the generals would turn on Maduro the minute the intervention starts.

 

[Cell_DbZ]

I think that Venezuelan government forces could survive a US air campaign but that would depend on Russian response. Putin does not even have to send major military systems to Caracas just resupply the Venezualan goverment army with SAM missiles, Manpads and ATGM's as you stated. I am sure Russia would be looking at interest to see S-300 system in use against US fighters for the first time. Just question is how skilled are Venezuala's SAM operators?

Usa is close to Venezuela; they would completely overwhelm Venezuela. They might take some losses due to Venezuela having modern systems, but I don't really think it serves as a deterrent for Trump. Also do not forget that Venezuela is now encircled by nations who support Usa, so it is likely they would add their assets as well.

Many of the generals would turn on Maduro the minute the intervention starts.

Venezuela has some capable systems, but it is very likely that a serious portion of their military would revolt against Maduro, so it very unlikely that their weaponry would be used to the fullest. Let alone that the Usa would still completely overwhelm Venezuela.

Important thing is Venezuelan Military is supporting Maduro, Russia is very close to Madoro, so USA Trump will not have an easy target and will try to avoid military intervention, once Russia start sending Ships, and fighters.

Up until now, only the generals have expressed their support for Maduro and those generals will likely bail before everything falls apart. It is questionable that the lower ranked soldiers would share the same loyality.
Last but not least, there's the population who have been starving for several years now. It seems to me that Maduro has significantly less support than Assad has in Syria.

As for Russia, Venezuela is very far away for them to really support Maduro, I really doubt that Russia would risk direct war or getting sucked into another proxy war, as they could save at least a little of their interests after Maduro would fall.
I am curious how China would react, but I highly doubt they will do anything.



Let's all hope that there won't be a civil war in Venezuela, it will be ugly. I fear the worst however.

 

[maximuswarrior]

Looks like another Syria in the making.

I don’t think China and Russia will let the US stage another Syria.

If you think Iraq or Vietnam is bad, Venezuela would be 100 times worse for Americans. Venezuela has biggest oil reserve in the world.

The Russians and Chinese would live to get the US embroiled into another conflict.

I am looking at Venezuela's armed forces and they have a pretty impressive Air Defence network on paper for a Latin American country. Theoretically if a US led MNF force (including the likes of Brazil, Colombia, and Panama etc..) launch a military operation similar to the one that ousted Gaddafi in Libya in 2011 (Use of Air Assets + Cruise missiles mainly) with small number of US marines and NAVY Seals to help local anti-maduro rebels to seize towns, cities, key installations and such how do you think the conflict pan out?

Will it be a military/political success for the US or will Venezuelan legitimate government under Maduro manage to hold out? How will Maduro's allies respond? Will we get a situation similar to Libya conflict or will Russia make sure Venezuela's 100,000 strong military is adequately resupplied and supported in the international arena?

Here are some of the aircraft and weapons systems that may be involved by both sides in a hypothetical conflict:

Venezuela

S-300VM - 12 batteries
Buk M2 - 7 batteries
SA-3 Neva P2M - 24 batteries
TOR M1 - alleged?
ZSU-23-2 - 100 ~
Plus Various MANPADS

F-16
SU-30MK

US/MNF
F-35
FA-18
F-16
F-15E
B-1
B-52
F-22

+ numerous cruise missiles, sea launched, air launched, stand off weapons, glide bombs etc..

could the Venezuelan military hold out such a storm or is the prospect of facing numerous US led air assets and a rebel force on the ground too much for them to take?

All of the above depends on Russian and Chinese support. Russia and China won’t let Venezuela fall like a house of cards because there is a lot at stake.

What we are seeing now is how US hegemony is being challenged all over the world. Little by little the divide and conquer game they have been playing is becoming ineffective. There are other big players on the scene who also want a slice. The Americans are too greedy and want to keep the whole pie.

We will see more of such proxy games being played all across the continents. Traditional US allies are now moving away from US influence and looking for alternatives. Russia and China is the alternative.

There is reason why the Western world has termed Russia and China as their main adversaries.

 

[T-123456]

Let's all hope that there won't be a civil war in Venezuela, it will be ugly. I fear the worst however.

Civil war,yes.
Outside intervention,unlikely(maybe some weapons).

 

[Feng Leng]

Mexico supports Venezuela. The best option is for Russia and China to land troops in Mexico with the government's support and cross the Rio Grande into Texas. Pelosi would really regret not funding the border wall.

 

[VCheng]

Mexico supports Venezuela. The best option is for Russia and China to land troops in Mexico and cross the Rio Grande into Texas.

But Venezuela is the OTHER way.

 

[Solomon2]

I am looking at Venezuela's armed forces and they have a pretty impressive Air Defence network on paper for a Latin American country. Theoretically if a US led MNF force -

Unlikely to happen, since that's not how regime changes happen in South America - even regime changes sponsored by the U.S.

[Still, it's Donald Trump, so you never know, I suppose...]

 

[maximuswarrior]

Mexico supports Venezuela. The best option is for Russia and China to land troops in Mexico with the government's support and cross the Rio Grande into Texas. Pelosi would really regret not funding the border wall.

We know what is coming. The CIA/Pentagon are planning for a regime change in Venezuela.

First use the covert traditional methods. Do another Syria and setup the structure on the ground. When the time is right strike like a chameleon behind the scene.

Syria taught us one very important lesson. When you do your homework right you can humiliate a superpower.

The Venezuelan case will be extremely interesting. This is much closer to home for the US. The US will be needing a very big wall.

Many of the generals would turn on Maduro the minute the intervention starts.

That is what they said about Assad too, but that turned out very differently.

The US is going to play the traditional covert game at best, but China and Russia are going to play along. That is something the US is losing appetite for. The Americans are used to zero intervention and an empty playing field with unmatched opponents.

The world has changed post Saddam Hussein. Back then the US could play desert storm. Times have changed.

Let me assure you. Every country the US sets its sight on Russia and China will be lurking in the shadows.

 

[T-123456]

That is what they said about Assad too, but that turned out very differently.

Really?
If not for Russia and Iran,Assad was finished,many ex-generals are in Europe.

The US is going to play the traditional covert game at best, but China and Russia are going to play along.

Words yes but more,i dont think so.
To far,to risky for both.
China cant/wont.
Russia busy in Syria.