How would a US + Allied military intervention in Venezuela crisis play out?

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Manduro is legitimate elected president in accordance with Venezuela constitution. The military does not support Guiado.

 

[maximuswarrior]

Really?
If not for Russia and Iran,Assad was finished,many ex-generals are in Europe.

Words yes but more,i dont think so.
To far,to risky for both.
China cant/wont.
Russia busy in Syria.

Most definitely. Of course it is Iran and Russia and that is exactly what I am trying to get across.

LOL at the ex-generals being in Europe. These pariah generals will die in Europe and never see the face of their home nation. That is hardly a feat to be proud of. Assad sits on his thrown.

China and Russia now understand the game. Spend little towards achieving your goal, but aim big. Bleed your enemy by adapting to his tactics. Send in strong tactical units for ground and air support. Play the covert game and support the opposition. Also breathe deeply and only let go if the other side says enough. It is a formula for success.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Russia busy in Syria.

Ha ha ha ha ha you think of couple of sandal wearers can beat the biggest country on the planet.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Manpads and ATGM's as you stated. I am sure Russia would be looking at interest to see S-300 system in use against US fighters for the first time. Just question is how skilled are Venezuala's SAM operators?

They will all be destroyed/expended before any manned aircraft fly over Venezuelan airspace. The US knows where they all are and will target them early. If missiles don't get them they'll send in as many drones circling at night as needed to have them expend them all trying to shoot them down. Plus there are plenty of US operatives in South America keeping an eye on things.

 

[nahtanbob]

Most definitely. Of course it is Iran and Russia and that is exactly what I am trying to get across.

LOL at the ex-generals being in Europe. These pariah generals will die in Europe and never see the face of their home nation. That is hardly a feat to be proud of. Assad sits on his thrown.

China and Russia now understand the game. Spend little towards achieving your goal, but aim big. Bleed your enemy by adapting to his tactics. Send in strong tactical units for ground and air support. Play the covert game and support the opposition. Also breathe deeply and only let go if the other side says enough. It is a formula for success.

The consequences of picking a fight with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru in addition to USA, Canada and Europe has not descended on you. All of them have supported Guiado.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The consequences of picking a fight with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru in addition to USA, Canada and Europe has not descended on you. All of them have supported Guiado.

Invading a country is far more difficult than conventional warfare between countries. Iraq and Afghanistan turned out to be nightmares. Let's see what 5000 Kornets can do to M1A2.

Taking Venezuela is easy. Keeping Venezuela won't be. Russia ships will be arriving to Caracas shipping Kornet missiles. America don't dare shoot at Russia ships.

 

[zectech]

Probably a bloodbath. I could see Russia deliver thousands of Kornet ATGM by ship. American soldiers would pay with their lives. Like it or not, Maduro is legitimate elected president. America backed Guaido has no support in Venezuela.

Putin would not do anything. Like with Saddam. That was another unlawful illegal war. Putin sanctions his friends, the only reason to help Assad, was it was a civil war against Muslims, who Putin hates. If Maduro was fighting against brown Asiatic Muslims, then Putin would be bombing Venezuela already with Maduro's support. Since this is a zog war against free people, Putin is cheering from the sidelines, fooling the neo-nazis Breitbarf and RT.

 

[nahtanbob]

Invading a country is far more difficult than conventional warfare between countries. Iraq and Afghanistan turned out to be nightmares. Let's see what 5000 Kornets can do to M1A2.

Taking Venezuela is easy. Keeping Venezuela won't be. Russia ships will be arriving to Caracas shipping Kornet missiles. America don't dare shoot at Russia ships.

the diplomatic costs of military involvement for Russia or China will be severe. it is not just USA, Europe punishing you. It will be all the major Latin American powers who will inflict damage on you. Individually they are not big. Collectively they can inflict considerable pain in conjunction with USA

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

the diplomatic costs of military involvement for Russia or China will be severe. it is not just USA, Europe punishing you. It will be all the major Latin American powers who will inflict damage on you. Individually they are not big. Collectively they can inflict considerable pain in conjunction with USA

China Russia Mexico Nicaragua Bolivia Cuba Turkey Iran backing ain't shabby either. Neither side wants a war.

 

[nahtanbob]

China Russia Mexico Nicaragua Bolivia Cuba Turkey Iran backing ain't shabby either. Neither side wants a war.

All I see is China, Russia and a bunch of nobodies

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

All I see is China, Russia and a bunch of nobodies

China has 1000 times the power of Brazil and Argentina and Colombia and Peru. Brazil and Argentina and Colombia and Peru are nobody. China is super power.

 

[nahtanbob]

Venezuela may 'spiral out of control' with at least 20 dead in protests, UN says
(CNN)As two declared presidents vie for power in Venezuela, a UN human rights official says at least 20 people have died in protest-related violence this week in the Latin American country, sparking her concern that the situation there "may rapidly spiral out of control."

The 20 people allegedly were shot to death by security forces or members of pro-government armed groups during demonstrations Tuesday and Wednesday, UN human rights High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet said Friday, citing "credible local sources."
This comes amid a mounting crisis inside and outside Venezuela over its future, with opposition leader Juan Guaido having declared himself acting president, openly rebelling against President Nicolas Maduro, whose opponents allege was illegitimately elected for a second term.


More than 350 demonstrators have reportedly been detained during the scores of protests that have occurred in Venezuela this week, Bachelet's office said.
"I am extremely concerned that the situation in Venezuela may rapidly spiral out of control with catastrophic consequences," Bachelet said.
"Any violent incident resulting in death or injury should be subject to an independent and impartial investigation to find out whether there was excessive use of force by the authorities, or if crimes have been committed by members of armed groups, whether pro-government or otherwise," she said.

Guaido, the head of Venezuela's opposition-led legislature, declared himself acting president Wednesday amid massive anti-government protests.
The power struggle has sparked a diplomatic row as well, with the United States and at least a dozen other countries saying they'll recognize Guaido, while Russia, China and others back Maduro.
Maduro, who accuses the United States of meddling, said Thursday he's closing Venezuela's embassy and all its consulates in the United States, and has given US diplomats until this weekend to leave his country.
"I believe there's no doubt that [US President] Donald Trump wants to impose a de facto government, unconstitutional government, a coup against the people and democracy in Venezuela," Maduro said Thursday in a lengthy speech that aired live on state broadcaster VTV. "There's no doubt that is Donald Trump with his craziness of believing he's the world's police."

Guaido wants diplomats to stay in US
Speaking at Venezuela's Supreme Court on Thursday, Maduro said Venezuela's diplomats and consulate personnel in the US will return to the Latin America country by Saturday.
Maduro reiterated his decision to cut diplomatic ties with the US and continuously slammed President Donald Trump, among other top US officials.


Who is Venezuela's Juan Guaido?
All non-emergency US employees were ordered to leave Venezuela on Thursday, according to a security alert. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had earlier brushed off Maduro's order that US diplomats leave the country, saying the US doesn't recognize his power to do so.
The US Embassy in Caracas opened Thursday but all visa appointments were canceled.
Late Thursday night, Guaido called on Venezuelan diplomats to stay in the US.
"You have in your hands the decision to stay and be recognized by the people of Venezuela and by the one who is writing you today [himself]," Guaido said in a series of tweets, adding that diplomatic staff have "legitimate, internationally recognized authority."
He said he and his cabinet "will be working on protecting the goods of the nation" as they have been "stolen" by the current regime.
"We have to remember that we are still in a dictatorship in Venezuela and that they are still withholding the weapons and that represents a threat," Guaido said in an interview with Univision television network.
Guaido also said he would consider amnesty for Maduro and his allies if they don't hamper Guaido's ascension to temporary power. He has called for elections.

Venezuela military loyal to Maduro
Top military brass still appear to back Maduro. Hours before his speech Thursday, military commanders and the country's defense minister expressed allegiance to him.
In military dress uniform and flanked by members of the military's high command, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said that Maduro was the country's legitimate leader -- and that Washington and other regional powers were trying to "knock out progressive governments that make them uncomfortable."

Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, flanked by senior members of the country's military, speaks in support of President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday.

US calls for Security Council meeting
Pompeo urged all members of the regional Organization of American States to support Guaido, saying Maduro's regime is "now defunct" and illegitimate.

People cheer as they listen to Venezuela's National Assembly head Juan Guaido during a mass opposition rally against leader Nicolas Maduro.
Pompeo announced that the United States, in response to a request from the opposition-led legislature, is ready to give Venezuela $20 million in aid to help with food and medicine shortages, to be distributed "as soon as logistically possible."
The United States said it has asked for a Saturday open meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss Venezuela.
Trump vowed in a statement Wednesday to use "the full weight of United States economic and diplomatic power to press for the restoration of Venezuelan democracy."
Depending on Maduro's response to the protests, Trump is prepared to take a range of actions in retaliation, including possible oil sanctions, two sources familiar with White House deliberations said.

Countries divided over leadership crisis
While many world leaders quickly expressed their support for Guaido, many others stood behind Maduro.
Describing Maduro's regime as illegitimate, several countries, including the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru, recognized Guaido as president.

Russia, China, Cuba and Turkey are among the nations backing Maduro -- and Russia in particular is criticizing the United States for undermining him.
Washington's interference in Venezuela could lead to "lawlessness and bloodshed," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
"We see in the unceremonious actions of Washington a new demonstration of total disregard for the norms and principles of international law, an attempt to play the role of the self-proclaimed arbiter of the destinies of other nations," the statement reads.
A few other countries like Mexico have said they prefer to stay on the sidelines. Mexico's Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Thursday the country will follow its policy of nonintervention.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for dialogue.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the UN chief said he hoped discussions could "avoid an escalation that could lead to the kind of conflict that would be a total disaster for Venezuela and the Venezuelan people and for the region."

This is not the first time that the US and many of Venezuela's neighbors declare they wouldn't recognize Maduro's presidency. Maduro's election in May and the country's deep economic crisis was a flashpoint for many of them.
The election was boycotted by opposition groups and largely discredited by opponents, with hundreds of complaints of election violations and a low turnout.
This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Juan Guaido's last name.
CNN's Radina Gigova, Madeline Holcombe, Jennifer Hansler, Richard Roth, Stefano Pozzebon, Hande Atay Alam, Mitchell McCluskey, Saskya Vandoorne and Michael K. Callahan contributed to this report.

These are the countries that support Guaido

• Argentina
• Brazil
• Canada
• Chile
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• Ecuador
• Guatemala
• Honduras
• Panama
• Paraguay
• Peru
• United Kingdom
• United States

These are among the countries that support Maduro

• Bolivia
• China
• Cuba
• Nicaragua
• Russia
• Syria
• Turkey

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Venezuela may 'spiral out of control' with at least 20 dead in protests, UN says
(CNN)As two declared presidents vie for power in Venezuela, a UN human rights official says at least 20 people have died in protest-related violence this week in the Latin American country, sparking her concern that the situation there "may rapidly spiral out of control."

The 20 people allegedly were shot to death by security forces or members of pro-government armed groups during demonstrations Tuesday and Wednesday, UN human rights High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet said Friday, citing "credible local sources."
This comes amid a mounting crisis inside and outside Venezuela over its future, with opposition leader Juan Guaido having declared himself acting president, openly rebelling against President Nicolas Maduro, whose opponents allege was illegitimately elected for a second term.


More than 350 demonstrators have reportedly been detained during the scores of protests that have occurred in Venezuela this week, Bachelet's office said.
"I am extremely concerned that the situation in Venezuela may rapidly spiral out of control with catastrophic consequences," Bachelet said.
"Any violent incident resulting in death or injury should be subject to an independent and impartial investigation to find out whether there was excessive use of force by the authorities, or if crimes have been committed by members of armed groups, whether pro-government or otherwise," she said.

Guaido, the head of Venezuela's opposition-led legislature, declared himself acting president Wednesday amid massive anti-government protests.
The power struggle has sparked a diplomatic row as well, with the United States and at least a dozen other countries saying they'll recognize Guaido, while Russia, China and others back Maduro.
Maduro, who accuses the United States of meddling, said Thursday he's closing Venezuela's embassy and all its consulates in the United States, and has given US diplomats until this weekend to leave his country.
"I believe there's no doubt that [US President] Donald Trump wants to impose a de facto government, unconstitutional government, a coup against the people and democracy in Venezuela," Maduro said Thursday in a lengthy speech that aired live on state broadcaster VTV. "There's no doubt that is Donald Trump with his craziness of believing he's the world's police."

Guaido wants diplomats to stay in US
Speaking at Venezuela's Supreme Court on Thursday, Maduro said Venezuela's diplomats and consulate personnel in the US will return to the Latin America country by Saturday.
Maduro reiterated his decision to cut diplomatic ties with the US and continuously slammed President Donald Trump, among other top US officials.


Who is Venezuela's Juan Guaido?
All non-emergency US employees were ordered to leave Venezuela on Thursday, according to a security alert. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had earlier brushed off Maduro's order that US diplomats leave the country, saying the US doesn't recognize his power to do so.
The US Embassy in Caracas opened Thursday but all visa appointments were canceled.
Late Thursday night, Guaido called on Venezuelan diplomats to stay in the US.
"You have in your hands the decision to stay and be recognized by the people of Venezuela and by the one who is writing you today [himself]," Guaido said in a series of tweets, adding that diplomatic staff have "legitimate, internationally recognized authority."
He said he and his cabinet "will be working on protecting the goods of the nation" as they have been "stolen" by the current regime.
"We have to remember that we are still in a dictatorship in Venezuela and that they are still withholding the weapons and that represents a threat," Guaido said in an interview with Univision television network.
Guaido also said he would consider amnesty for Maduro and his allies if they don't hamper Guaido's ascension to temporary power. He has called for elections.

Venezuela military loyal to Maduro
Top military brass still appear to back Maduro. Hours before his speech Thursday, military commanders and the country's defense minister expressed allegiance to him.
In military dress uniform and flanked by members of the military's high command, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said that Maduro was the country's legitimate leader -- and that Washington and other regional powers were trying to "knock out progressive governments that make them uncomfortable."

Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, flanked by senior members of the country's military, speaks in support of President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday.

US calls for Security Council meeting
Pompeo urged all members of the regional Organization of American States to support Guaido, saying Maduro's regime is "now defunct" and illegitimate.

People cheer as they listen to Venezuela's National Assembly head Juan Guaido during a mass opposition rally against leader Nicolas Maduro.
Pompeo announced that the United States, in response to a request from the opposition-led legislature, is ready to give Venezuela $20 million in aid to help with food and medicine shortages, to be distributed "as soon as logistically possible."
The United States said it has asked for a Saturday open meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss Venezuela.
Trump vowed in a statement Wednesday to use "the full weight of United States economic and diplomatic power to press for the restoration of Venezuelan democracy."
Depending on Maduro's response to the protests, Trump is prepared to take a range of actions in retaliation, including possible oil sanctions, two sources familiar with White House deliberations said.

Countries divided over leadership crisis
While many world leaders quickly expressed their support for Guaido, many others stood behind Maduro.
Describing Maduro's regime as illegitimate, several countries, including the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru, recognized Guaido as president.

Russia, China, Cuba and Turkey are among the nations backing Maduro -- and Russia in particular is criticizing the United States for undermining him.
Washington's interference in Venezuela could lead to "lawlessness and bloodshed," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
"We see in the unceremonious actions of Washington a new demonstration of total disregard for the norms and principles of international law, an attempt to play the role of the self-proclaimed arbiter of the destinies of other nations," the statement reads.
A few other countries like Mexico have said they prefer to stay on the sidelines. Mexico's Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Thursday the country will follow its policy of nonintervention.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for dialogue.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the UN chief said he hoped discussions could "avoid an escalation that could lead to the kind of conflict that would be a total disaster for Venezuela and the Venezuelan people and for the region."

This is not the first time that the US and many of Venezuela's neighbors declare they wouldn't recognize Maduro's presidency. Maduro's election in May and the country's deep economic crisis was a flashpoint for many of them.
The election was boycotted by opposition groups and largely discredited by opponents, with hundreds of complaints of election violations and a low turnout.
This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Juan Guaido's last name.
CNN's Radina Gigova, Madeline Holcombe, Jennifer Hansler, Richard Roth, Stefano Pozzebon, Hande Atay Alam, Mitchell McCluskey, Saskya Vandoorne and Michael K. Callahan contributed to this report.

These are the countries that support Guaido

• Argentina
• Brazil
• Canada
• Chile
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• Ecuador
• Guatemala
• Honduras
• Panama
• Paraguay
• Peru
• United Kingdom
• United States

These are among the countries that support Maduro

• Bolivia
• China
• Cuba
• Nicaragua
• Russia
• Syria
• Turkey

20 dead ain't anything compared to civil war. That be millions dead.