How Spin Masters Made You Believe Indians Have Maximum Confidence In Their Government

[padamchen]

We hear this a lot, but what has Modi really achieved? This is a great big marketing campaign which is a lot of hot air, but no real substance.

Thanks to 7 decades of continuous democracy, and travel and media, the Indian electorate even in the most remote villages is a pretty seasoned and sophisticated one now.

Spin doctoring will not help when jeben khali.

Spin doctoring will not help when you see cows safer than human beings in our society.

Spin doctoring will not help when you hear sabka saath sabka vikaas, but everyone around you is unhappy and fuming. Which then makes you question. These sab we keep hearing about. Which island have they been hidden on.

Cheers, Doc

 

[DarX]

lots of people were surprised

Businesses don't like surprises. And confidence once lost is very difficult to regain.

 

[wiseone2]

Businesses don't like surprises. And confidence once lost is very difficult to regain.

they do not like paying taxes too

 

[padamchen]

they do not like paying taxes too

Name one big business house caught with its pants down.

Cheers, Doc

 

[wiseone2]

Name one big business house caught with its pants down.

Cheers, Doc

it is not the big business
it is whole multitude of small medium businesses

 

[padamchen]

it is not the big business
it is whole multitude of small medium businesses

Chillar party.

Feku successfully ullu banaoing. For the most part ....

Cheers, Doc

 

[DarX]

Thanks to 7 decades of continuous democracy, and travel and media, the Indian electorate even in the most remote villages is a pretty seasoned and sophisticated one now.

Spin doctoring will not help when jeben khali.

Spin doctoring will not help when you see cows safer than human beings in our society.

Spin doctoring will not help when you hear sabka saath sabka vikaas, but everyone around you is unhappy and fuming. Which then makes you question. These sab we keep hearing about. Which island have they been hidden on.

Cheers, Doc

The problem is that this seasoned electorate is facing an even more seasoned political machine of the BJP, which has even managed to turn the disaster of demonetization into a political victory. There is no guarantee that Modi will not be able to turn the dissatisfaction of the economy into further attacks on the opposition.

We must remember how many great nations fell to the nationalism of previous maniacs. Modi's continued popularity and quite condoning of Hindutva nationalism is setting a terrible precedence.

 

[wiseone2]

The problem is that this seasoned electorate is facing an even more seasoned political machine of the BJP, which has even managed to turn the disaster of demonetization into a political victory. There is no guarantee that Modi will not be able to turn the dissatisfaction of the economy into further attacks on the opposition.

We must remember how many great nations fell to the nationalism of previous maniacs. Modi's continued popularity and quite condoning of Hindutva nationalism is setting a terrible precedence.

the opposition is in complete disarray
there is no point betting against Modi

 

[DarX]

they do not like paying taxes too

No I meant it in a different sense. As a business environment, the country must ensure consistency and avoid surprises. India already has a reputation for aggressive tax collectors and policy reversals.

 

[wiseone2]

Name one big business house caught with its pants down.

Cheers, Doc

the biggest issue with big business is not taxes but repaying loans to public sector banks

No I meant it in a different sense. As a business environment, the country must ensure consistency and avoid surprises. India already has a reputation for aggressive tax collectors and policy reversals.

culture of tax evasion has to end
look no further than Greece to see the end result

 

[DarX]

the opposition is in complete disarray
there is no point betting against Modi

I fully agree with you here, but as a very involved investor myself, I would also say that betting on Modi is not the same as betting on India's economy itself. The performance of the Indian economy right now is a mix of exuberant international investing and speculation, which is known to be gusts of hot air raising the indexes of specific areas. When real progress is seen as insufficient as compared to the speculation, it causes massive crashes.

 

[padamchen]

The problem is that this seasoned electorate is facing an even more seasoned political machine of the BJP, which has even managed to turn the disaster of demonetization into a political victory. There is no guarantee that Modi will not be able to turn the dissatisfaction of the economy into further attacks on the opposition.

We must remember how many great nations fell to the nationalism of previous maniacs. Modi's continued popularity and quite condoning of Hindutva nationalism is setting a terrible precedence.

I don't quite agree if your contention is that the BJP machine is a bigger juggernaut than the Congress one.

It is always an equilibrium between the nose of the electorate and the ability of the polity to perfume package crap.

Always has been. And India has a pretty stellar record of teaching lessons when lessons were warranted.

Modi was elected by two types of Indians. The frothing Muslim hating bigots. And the rest (who may or may not have liked Muslims in general or Islamic fundamentalism and all that it brought with it as baggage in particular) who got taken in by Modi's persona. His 10 year trial by fire. The fatigue of time (there is only so much you can handle if bombarded non stop with it for 10 years). The rampant corruption of UPA II (no shame, and no attempt to even hide). The fact that Sonia will always be seen as Italian in our country. Rahul not the brightest bulb in the chandelier. And Modi's so called Gujarat CM track record. And image as a strong man.

India was at the end of it tether in terms of options and patience with the Congress. The SC verdict on Modi made things "OK" now. I mean, 10 years and Supreme Court. Bas ho gaya.

And the spiel of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas. And the belief that he could not possibly do something on the national stage and hope to get away with it.

Well. 3 years on, he's doing it. And getting away with it.

And the economy is floundering badly.

Cheers, Doc

 

[wiseone2]

I fully agree with you here, but as a very involved investor myself, I would also say that betting on Modi is not the same as betting on India's economy itself. The performance of the Indian economy right now is a mix of exuberant international investing and speculation, which is known to be gusts of hot air raising the indexes of specific areas. When real progress is seen as insufficient as compared to the speculation, it causes massive crashes.

I could say the same about the past 25 years
real progress has lagged behind rise in stock market and asset values

 

[DarX]

the biggest issue with big business is not taxes but repaying loans to public sector banks



culture of tax evasion has to end
look no further than Greece to see the end result

Of course the culture of tax evasion has to end, but all economists, including the respected RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, were vehemently opposed to demonetization as a tool to enforce that. It had a great cost and it had very little effect. I will give you an example. The Modi government invalidated INR 15.6 trillion, and expected a full INR 5 trillion to remain invalid. Besides the benefit of attacking black money, it would've given the Modi government a windfall gain of INR 5 trillion which it could print and spend on its own without the danger of rise in inflation. However, a full 98% was deposited into the banks, which shot down any chance of catching the black market operators. The remaining 2% also consists of legitimate income that could not be deposited due to it being stored around the world.

Who lost? The poorest of the poor who survive on cash. As normal Indians cut down on cash consumption, the Rikshaw driver and the food cart seller suffered.

Btw, the Greece issue was the result of borrowing beyond the country's limit, and not tax evasion.

 

[padamchen]

Of course the culture of tax evasion has to end, but all economists, including the respected RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, were vehemently opposed to demonetization as a tool to enforce that. It had a great cost and it had very little effect. I will give you an example. The Modi government invalidated INR 15.6 trillion, and expected a full INR 5 trillion to remain invalid. Besides the benefit of attacking black money, it would've given the Modi government a windfall gain of INR 5 trillion which it could print and spend on its own without the danger of rise in inflation. However, a full 98% was deposited into the banks, which shot down any chance of catching the black market operators. The remaining 2% also consists of legitimate income that could not be deposited due to it being stored around the world.

Who lost? The poorest of the poor who survive on cash. As normal Indians cut down on cash consumption, the Rikshaw driver and the food cart seller suffered.

Btw, the Greece issue was the result of borrowing beyond the country's limit, and not tax evasion.

Succinctly put.

Only I believe that they knew that the INR 5 trillion was going to become white. That most of it already had become white even before the announcement.

Cheers, Doc