Harvard research puts BD in low growth category

[Mage]

This @Nilgiri

It projected that Bangladesh economy would grow by 2.82 per cent annually on average until 2025.

I understand what you mean. But this should've been stated more clearly in the OP

 

[Nilgiri]

This @Nilgiri


I understand what you mean. But this should've been stated more clearly in the OP

Well no link was provided to the article and its from BD media I think....this one I believe:

http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.c...rvard-research-puts-BD-in-low-growth-category

Reliability and credibility of article assertion needs to be checked at original source always (esp when BD media regarding economic matters, unless its fully internal information chain report etc)....esp before dragging other countries into any argument.

First few repliers now have major egg on their face....they went all in taking the media article to be verbatim what the report itself was talking about.

The quality of the reporting is also atrocious:

The economic complexity growth projections also differ from those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

...implying that this is indeed GDP growth being talked about (because thats really what IMF and EIU do growth projections for).

It projected that Bangladesh economy would grow by 2.82 per cent annually on average until 2025.

Flat out completely wrong.

 

[wiseone2]

It did not say about the author.. it gave the contact address of
Center for International Development

I am still convinced that the author is an Indian origing graduate student under mr Chuck McKenney. I made sure calling that number.




About the Center for International Development
The Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University is a university-wide center that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty. CID is Harvard’s leading research hub focusing on resolving the dilemmas of public policy associated with generating stable, shared, and sustainable prosperity in developing countries. Our ongoing mission is to revolutionize the world of development practice.

Contact: Chuck McKenney

Email: chuck_mckenney@hks.harvard.edu

Phone: (617) 495-4112

What does a poor Indian graduate student gain by putting down Bangladesh ?

Despite having the worst political instability in the subcontinent we have succeeded to post a growth rate of 6%+. I wonder what sort of shock we will go through that will slump our growth rate from 7.1% to 2.8% as the study projects. I can only predict one scenario when India gets disintegrated in a massive civil war and we have to receive scores of refugees which may take a toll on our economy.

Anybody having even the slightest of doubt over our economy could visit the Chittagong port, despite being one of the largest in the Indian Ocean, it is literally jam-packed with vessels and containers while every other moment a new vessel emerges at the dock. Handling is growing at an enormous rate.

Why should Bangladesh have a civil war just because economic growth slows

 

[Nilgiri]

What does a poor Indian graduate student gain by putting down Bangladesh ?



Why should Bangladesh have a civil war just because economic growth slows

You bother to interact with this fellow after what I just posted in last few posts?

He already stated he has "called" Mr. McKenney and confirmed that grand total of one Indian graduate student produced the entirety of a CID study and report.

Mr. McKenney also forgot (or deliberately misled topcat) to mention at the time that this was economic complexity being talked about...not economy per se.....thus BD media article cannot and should not be blamed at all.

All this is tucked alongside the "confirmation" that Indian merchandise exports include IT exports (because they are classified as an "industry" by Indian govt), that BD can develop a nuclear bomb in less than 5 years time and that filing a patent in any country in the world gives automatic IPR in every other country....among numerous other "confirmations".

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Well no link was provided to the article and its from BD media I think....this one I believe:

http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.c...rvard-research-puts-BD-in-low-growth-category

Reliability and credibility of article assertion needs to be checked at original source always (esp when BD media regarding economic matters, unless its fully internal information chain report etc)....esp before dragging other countries into any argument.

First few repliers now have major egg on their face....they went all in taking the media article to be verbatim what the report itself was talking about.

The quality of the reporting is also atrocious:

The economic complexity growth projections also differ from those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

...implying that this is indeed GDP growth being talked about (because thats really what IMF and EIU do growth projections for).

It projected that Bangladesh economy would grow by 2.82 per cent annually on average until 2025.

Flat out completely wrong.

But Pakistani posters here and Pakistani media reports are citing this 'economic complexity growth rate' as GDP growth rate.What about that? Many got confused by reading Pakistani media reports like this-
Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is even higher than that of China: Harvard study
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...even-higher-than-that-of-china-harvard-study/

 

[Nilgiri]

But Pakistani posters here and Pakistani media reports are citing this 'economic complexity growth rate' as GDP growth rate.What about that? Many got confused by reading Pakistani media reports like this-
Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is even higher than that of China: Harvard study
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...even-higher-than-that-of-china-harvard-study/

Its bit more complicated now that I revisited the source site again. They do not say "GDP" (or anything specific) but rather "economy". This way they can define more long term trends w.r.t their GCI.

The way I interpret it overall is this is how much growth a country going to get from economic complexity, diversification etc (they make the assertion that economic growth is largely dependent on economic complexity and its growth).

Thus say BD grows effectively at 6 - 7% (real terms taka) annually in the period in question. Effectively 3% or so comes from economic complexity (i.e expansion into truly new stuff, innovation compared to before etc). 3% comes from mix of "old" GCF inertia, expansion of conventional stuff...and 1% population (esp labour pool) growth etc. Much over-simplified here but just to show you what I mean. They projecting around 4.5% growth per annum for China too from economic complexity...and old GCF+pop momentum would add 1 - 2 % in total there too...to give total around 6%+ region till 2025 in my view.

Thus I see it more as how much future growth comes from economic complexity (in whatever ratio they propose it to be as part of total realised growth). This BTW is very important as stand alone number as well as it shows the long term sustainability of the realised economic growth.

If they make the claim its actual total realised growth projection of something very specific like GDP, I need to see that. I cannot see that being made with what they released right now (i.e vague "economy"). Anyone can say economy simply is just the "complex" "sustainable" part of total production for example....or any definition (incl total production or some composite etc) Its a vague term in economics...and deliberately so.

I may have been a bit harsh though on the BD media article, they do quote some stuff verbatim from the harvard page:

The economic complexity growth projections differ from those of the IMF and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Relative to EIU predictions, CID researchers are less optimistic about a set of countries that include Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Cuba. Conversely, CID researchers have greater optimism for the growth prospects of Uganda, Guatemala, Mexico, Tanzania, and Brazil.

But again context was not really given accurately...but then again not many people really delve into nuances of terminology and definition differences between GDP and economy etc.

 

[bluesky]

These Harvard Pundits forgot to clearly explain the reasons for their pessimistic views on the economic growth of BD. They have suddenly reached a singular result. Are they just a group of sophomore economic novices doing their BBA?

 

[Bilal9]

What does a poor Indian graduate student gain by putting down Bangladesh ?

A Bhakt has to do his duty, bhaisaab. Rich or poor, who cares.....

 

[gslv mk3]

A Bhakt has to do his duty, bhaisaab. Rich or poor, who cares.....

The butt-hurt is high on this one...

 

[Śakra]

Once walmart moves shop to the next country bengeldesh will have hyperinflation and ZERO growh

 

[wiseone2]

A Bhakt has to do his duty, bhaisaab. Rich or poor, who cares.....

You have not been a graduate student. Graduate student is more worried when he is getting his next meagre paycheck, when he is graduating and where is going to get his job.

 

[Bilal9]

Once walmart moves shop to the next country bengeldesh will have hyperinflation and ZERO growh

We all have our vulture wishes.

I could wish that all US outsourcing to India stopped. Especially to Indian companies who willingly hire racist communal Sanghi types, which is prohibited under US law.

BUT fat chance of that happening.

You have not been a graduate student. Graduate student is more worried when he is getting his next meagre paycheck, when he is graduating and where is going to get his job.

I wouldn't be so quick to make assumptions....

 

[wiseone2]

Once walmart moves shop to the next country bengeldesh will have hyperinflation and ZERO growh

It is more likely that a robot does the automated manufacturing

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

Swamiji's IQ is more than combined IQ of some Bangladeshi posters here.

Do you think all barking dogs

have high I.Q.

Is there any miracle medicine that can upgrade the growth, such as devaluation or revaluation of currency?

Don’t worry BD brothers and sisters if you guys are ready our joint growth could be 5.97+2.82=4.4 which is equal to china.

 

[Nilgiri]

These Harvard Pundits forgot to clearly explain the reasons for their pessimistic views on the economic growth of BD. They have suddenly reached a singular result. Are they just a group of sophomore economic novices doing their BBA?

Harvard has a million times more credibility than anything that comes out of BD, esp your BBS.

BD has a serious economic complexity (and thus sustainable economic growth) problem, if you want to stick your head in the sand and not address that, its completely fine....you suffer in the end, no one else in the world cares.

The problems are already showing up big time, enjoy more coming with time and stacking up.