Scenario 1: Pakistan take sides with GCC
It will spark a back lash within country specially from Shia populace and many moderate Sunni parties as well, who dont like Saudi/Wahabi influence. Around 2 divisions will get stuck in a a bloody Civil war in Yemen. Iran is most likely to deploy its forces along Pak-Iran border. India will not spare this golden chance, and collaborate with Iran on harming Pakistan. Afghans will also jump in with Indians. Chinese president has already cancelled his visit once again. USA is threatening Pakistan, as its interests are changing sides now. Our newly develop little understanding with Russia will went up into smoke. Imagine Pakistan in that situation. Even our Armed forces, due to which we have survived last 15 difficult years, will not be able to do anything as they will be in trouble from all sides.
Thing to remember, if some one claim that GCC will come for help to Pakistan, he is either stupid or not sincere with Pakistan. Apart from few thousand tons of free oil and some cash, they will do nothing, and let Pakistan split just like 1971 crisis.
Scenario 2: Pakistan take sides with Iran
It is a very low possibility, still it will bring surely a civil war here. All defeated elements of TTP and alike will get a new life. Huge influx of expatriates from GCC towards Pakistan. Saudis and UAE will encourage India to take on Pakistan. And this is absolute disaster for us.
Scenario 3: Pakistan remains nuetral
This is apparently the stance Pakistan is taking. It has make GCC very irritated, frustrated and so on. Its visible from there reactions also. It has make Iran a little contented, which make sure that atleast our border with Iran will remain peaceful. Our forces will remain in Pakistan and finish off ZeA operation, also to deter Indian misadventure.
Saudis and Co will be forced to bring in their mercenaries from AF-Pak to Yemen. If even 50% of these hardcore terrorist went their, it will be a big relief for Pakistan.
It will also show maturity on part of Pakistan, which encourage warmth of relationship from Russia.
Chinese, who are some what confused with their decision to invest in proposed trade route through Pakistan, will went ahead with their plan. Only downside is the possibility, that all 4.2 Pakistanis from GCC will be deported. Pakistan will loose free coupons of petro dollars etc.
Positive thing is that, thousands of doctors, engineers and technical workers will get back to Pakistan.
Dont worry about Oil, Iran could meet our needs. What make difference, if you pay to Iran rather then Saudis. You would also have the possibility of oil for rice kind of barter trade, which will save Pakistan's foreign exchange.
Pakistan will also have a golden chance to reverse the evils of Zia times.
Pakistan could emerge as a mature nation, while taking part as a mediator along with Turkey in ME crisis.
Its time for best of diplomacy, civil & military statesmanship. Dont look at this as a trap and negative, look at the positive sides, which Pakistan could achieve here.
PS: Expelling all Pakistanis and brokering all kind of economical relations is not so easy for KSA and UAE. It will drown their economies at once.
