Govt turned banking sector an orphan: CPD

[Skies]

Over the last 5 years or so (2012 - 2017):

BD claimed to grow its nominal per capita by 75%, but its PPP increased by 41% only. (Total difference = 34% in the wrong direction)

From 2000 to 2012 for BD:

122% in nominal per capita, 119% for PPP. (only a 3% difference).

So don't frigging launder into a whole time period the BS that's going on now (in last 5 or so years) w.r.t BBS crap (CLEARLY showing up in the household income stagnation)...Bangladesh now is laundering a magnitude more inflation into its nominal than before (and compared to regional peers by far), its crystal clear.

So basically it means that the nominal growth contributed more positively (in right way as you say) in PPP growth (percentage wise: 3% vs 34%) before BAL came.... and people were happier with their ppp capacity (percentage wise or GDP per capita to PPP ratio)?

I was thinking if I could do a private survey on 5k people to expose lies. lol

Need to learn what economic variables should I include to get the best picture. Need to make a questionnaire and survey online.

 

[UKBengali]

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=67&pr.y=15&sy=2000&ey=2017&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=513,564,534&s=NGDPDPC,PPPPC&grp=0&a=

Over the last 5 years or so (2012 - 2017):

BD claimed to grow its nominal per capita by 75%, but its PPP increased by 41% only. (Total difference = 34% in the wrong direction)

Compare this for India in same time period: 34% increase in nominal per capita, but 43% increase in PPP (total difference = 9% in the right direction)

Pakistan: 23% increase in nominal, 21% increase in PPP (2 % in the wrong direction)

Right and wrong direction is governed by the overall direction of trade, investment from foreign liquidity pools (i.e delta imprint of their local currency vis a vis global reference the USD) for this region from the world....i.e Consumption/Foreign CA/ Cap A trends.

Heck compare to your own self since you want to go back to 2000:

From 2000 to 2012 for BD:

122% in nominal per capita, 119% for PPP. (only a 3% difference).

So don't frigging launder into a whole time period the BS that's going on now (in last 5 or so years) w.r.t BBS crap (CLEARLY showing up in the household income stagnation)...Bangladesh now is laundering a magnitude more inflation into its nominal than before (and compared to regional peers by far), its crystal clear.

@Skies @Ashes @Tanveer666 @bluesky @Chak Bamu @Xlvee01 @django @Zibago

You stupid dude?

Forget nominal for once and focus on the growth rate that BBS is putting out. You say that you trust GDP per capita PPP in terms of real incomes and so it must follow as below:

If BDP GDP per capita PPP is growing at the same rate over the last 5 years as India is, then that means that either BD is telling the truth or both BD and India are lying about their growth rate.

Which is it?

 

[Nilgiri]

So basically it means that the nominal growth contributed more positively (in right way as you say) in PPP growth (percentage wise: 3% vs 34%) before BAL came.... and people were happier with their ppp capacity (percentage wise or GDP per capita to PPP ratio)?

I was thinking if I could do a private survey on 5k people to expose lies. lol

Need to learn what economic variables should I include to get the best picture. Need to make a questionnaire and survey online.

Basically there is not enough scale of demand for Taka (and supply of say USD) external to Bangladesh... to cause such a rise in nominal growth vs PPP growth suddenly in such timeframe too (as compare to say when this happened in say India case in the hot money FPI phase of 2004 - 2010).

Bangladesh is neither swinging its Current Account or Capital Account to the levels needed (i.e say double or triple defacto productivity of its resources)....nor is there massive FPI or FDI swing in this time period for this level it is claiming.

If it is happening purely by domestic forces (and assume BBS is accurate and no inflation laundering)...the BBS survey is basically suggesting that 1% rich BD people got all the benefits... and much worse they keep all they money as cash, out of the banks and under their beds etc....more than anyone else on the planet. Because even if they re-invest into property or other forms of wealth, this would show up in the bond market, real estate sector and their imprint in stock market etc.

The only other option is that BBS has some interplay between accuracy and inflation laundering. To me this is the occam's razor (simplest explanation)....i.e there is slippage in accuracy and standards (whether on purpose or accident or some combination of both) and way more inflation is getting recorded as real growth than the region and world in general....and on top of that some level of the previous phenomenon also happening.

Forget nominal for once and focus on the growth rate that BBS is putting out.

Forget nominal and focus on the.....nominal growth rate Just too good. Again you are a retard confirmed.

and so it must follow as below:

Sorry you have hit the wall of retardation. I can't help explain it anymore....I literally just illustrated to you how close BD nominal and PPP growth were previously (2000 - 2012: near 1:1 correlation), and how wildly out of whack it is now in last 5 years (AND backed up by BBS own household income survey showing basically RECESSION for 99% of the BD people) with no real change in the magnitudes needed in external trends to account for this.

QED: BBS sucks and has tons of inflation in its claim for real GDP...and no one outside BD cares, and BD people suffer in the end for it.

I was thinking if I could do a private survey on 5k people to expose lies. lol

Need to learn what economic variables should I include to get the best picture. Need to make a questionnaire and survey online.

Problem if you do it online is you wont sample in unbiased way the whole of BD. But even accounting for that, it can have some merit. The questions probably should revolve around actual purchasing power, i.e are they able to upgrade the level and quality of goods etc they can buy over time with what they are able to save etc.

 

[bluesky]

You seems to have forgotten his two flag in his profile.

I actually doubt his two flag claim. If a person lives in a civilized and developed country, he should know all the components or requirements of a developed country. I do not see any in @UKBengali, sorry to say. He is unable to compare BD level of economy (not GDP) with that of European. He does not know even the process of national development and progress.

A person living in Europe can readily know about these. He should know what is our position vis-a-vis Europe. I have been to Germany. Switzerland, Holland and London. I also frequent BD, the last time it was November, 2017. People here are fighting over GDP growth, but BD remains a gutter country with unbelievable dirt and garbage in the town and cities. Guys like you are having good life when you are inside your villas. But, what happens when you come down to the streets?

People in BD are so accustomed to this garbage life that they do not know any thing better can be there in other countries. But, anyway, people like you do not have to walk down a street, because you go out with valet-driven cars. On the contrary, I, for one, know what is the rigor of bus journey in Shonar Bangla.

And, one more point. The way @UKBengali talks about economic growth, Bismark must be crying in his grave to see how ignorant a person can be on the national development process. But, I appreciate his high level of nationalism, though it does not help the country.

 

[Nilgiri]

I actually doubt his two flag claim. If a person lives in a civilized and developed country, he should know all the components or requirements of a developed country. I do not see any in @UKBengali, sorry to say. He is unable to compare BD level of economy (not GDP) with that of European. He does not know even the process of national development and progress.

A person living in Europe can readily know about these. He should know what is our position vis-a-vis Europe. I have been to Germany. Switzerland, Holland and London. I also frequent BD, the last time it was November, 2017. People here are fighting over GDP growth, but BD remains a gutter country with unbelievable dirt and garbage in the town and cities. Guys like you are having good life when you are inside your villas. But, what happens when you come down to the streets?

People in BD are so accustomed to this garbage life that they do not know any thing better can be there in other countries. But, anyway, people like you do not have to walk down a street, because you go out with valet-driven cars. On the contrary, I, for one, know what is the rigor of bus journey in Shonar Bangla.

And, one more point. The way @UKBengali talks about economic growth, Bismark must be crying in his grave to see how ignorant a person can be on the national development process. But, I appreciate his high level of nationalism, though it does not help the country.

You are increasingly more pessimistic these days too buddy. BD is doing ok (its PPP growth for example)....there is an inherent improvement going on that will take time to disseminate into the base that is experienced by majority of its people....which will in turn sustain them hopefully to push for more from their political elite that exploits them.

 

[UKBengali]

Sorry you have hit the wall of retardation. I can't help explain it anymore....I literally just illustrated to you how close BD nominal and PPP growth were previously (2000 - 2012: near 1:1 correlation), and how wildly out of whack it is now in last 5 years (AND backed up by BBS own household income survey showing basically RECESSION for 99% of the BD people) with no real change in the magnitudes needed in external trends to account for this.

QED: BBS sucks and has tons of inflation in its claim for real GDP...and no one outside BD cares, and BD people suffer in the end for it.

Again, please focus on the growth rate and not on nominal gdp per capita.

Since you say that you trust the BD per capita PPP figures then it must stand to reason that the growth rate is correct as Indian GDP per capita at PPP is growing at the same rate as BD, or are both BD and India lying about their growth rates?

If you still do not understand then I would suggest a brain transplant for the mentally challenged.

 

[Nilgiri]

Again, please focus on the growth rate and not on nominal gdp per capita.

The growth rate IS based on nominal GDP level (between two years). Sorry it can't be dumbed down anymore than that.

It's like you saying please focus on the water in the house and not on the flood LOL.

@Skies @bluesky

Since you say that you trust the BD per capita PPP figures then it must stand to reason that the growth rate is correct as Indian GDP per capita at PPP is growing at the same rate as BD, or are both BD and India lying about their growth rates?

Again BD compared to itself (last 5 years compared to decade before that) shows more than enough on the issue. Correlation of 1:1 earlier, and now way out of whack because inflation is clearly laundering into the nominal (which sets the reference for everything else).

So no, you are not growing at the same rate as countries with far superior standards. Even PPP needs a nominal reference base if you know anything about how its calculated. It's just overall less flawed (and hence shows the inflation laundering over time by BAL/BBS, just like BBS itself did with the household income survey lol) than the garbage BD directly puts out.....doesn't mean it is in its totality equivalent to another PPP level/growth rate, given garbage in (BBS inflation laundering reference) will lead to some level of garbage out, no matter how good and clean the filters are.

If you still do not understand then I would suggest a brain transplant for the mentally challenged.

Coming from an utter idiot, I would not expect any different. An idiot calling other as one, only means the latter is not one in reality . I would only be shocked if you didn't say it.

Just like its not surprising the BD people in UK that blab the most are among the worst socio-economic group in the UK (70% poverty rate....yuck)....and you being a perfect testament as to why. Those that do not label others, generally are doing lot better for themselves as well.

 

[UKBengali]

@Nilgiri

Ok. Let us do this in another way:

Do you believe the GDP per capita PPP figures for BD from 2000-2018 or have BBS laundered them as well?

 

[Nilgiri]

Do you believe the GDP per capita PPP figures for BD from 2000-2018 or have BBS laundered them as well?

From 2000 - 2012 largely seems to be believable (near 1:1 correlation in growth between them, which is what one would expect with no massive BoP swings).

2012 onwards is when the SHTF starts, there is no massive BoP differential compared to before (same RMG LDC quota environment, no huge upswing in realised wealth pools, no massive investment flow change... i.e no real massive sustained pressure on USD from Taka), but the correlation is way different to 1:1....more like 1.4 : 1 which is huge esp over 5+ years. The extra is obviously inflation laundered into the nominal component....BBS itself suggests this by the lack of real household income growth in its own survey.

You can sit back and watch the re-basing exercise for yourself, if it ever happens now to begin with.

 

[UKBengali]

From 2000 - 2012 largely seems to be believable (near 1:1 correlation in growth between them, which is what one would expect with no massive BoP swings).

2012 onwards is when the SHTF starts, there is no massive BoP differential compared to before (same RMG LDC quota environment, no huge upswing in realised wealth pools, no massive investment flow change... i.e no real massive sustained pressure on USD from Taka), but the correlation is way different to 1:1....more like 1.4 : 1 which is huge esp over 5+ years. The extra is obviously inflation laundered into the nominal component....BBS itself suggests this by the lack of real household income growth in its own survey.

You can sit back and watch the re-basing exercise for yourself, if it ever happens now to begin with.

AL has been in power since 2009, why would they start laundering figures only from 2013?
Did they need 4 years to figure out how to do it?

 

[Nilgiri]

AL has been in power since 2009, why would they start laundering figures only from 2013?
Did they need 4 years to figure out how to do it?

Entropy slippage over time as well....but yes feedback loops in econometrics generally have some lag time as well.

Lets split into 3 time frames then:

2000 - 2009:

Nominal growth per capita: 77%

PPP growth per capita: 79% (2% ahead)

2009 - 2013:

Nominal growth per capita: 41%

PPP growth per capita: 30% (11% behind)

2013 - 2017:

Nominal growth per capita: 56%

PPP growth per capita: 33% (23% behind)

Do you see a trend here? Can it be accounted purely by Taka/USD pressure change? Or more willingness to hoard in black economy by the BD elite (if BBS household income survey is accurate)? Or more inflation getting through as "real"? Given GDDS standards in BD (and financial sector stasis), you tell me.....none of these are good phenomena.

It may not all be on "purpose" in real direct way by BAL...static standards have their own trade-offs as an economy gets bulkier/impulse loaded. This is why for example a large part of why the great stock market crash (and following great depression) happened.

BD needs to improve its standards, reform its finance sector and rebase/reset effectively its GDP reference. It is still not too late...and you still have a comfortable window to do this (given FPI is not huge into BD yet) before it becomes painful to do it.

BUT, to find proper solutions, you need to admit there is a problem rather than deluding its not there.

@Skies @bluesky @Ashes @Mage @Centaur

 

[Centaur]

Entropy slippage over time as well....but yes feedback loops in econometrics generally have some lag time as well.

Lets split into 3 time frames then:

2000 - 2009:

Nominal growth per capita: 77%

PPP growth per capita: 79% (2% ahead)

2009 - 2013:

Nominal growth per capita: 41%

PPP growth per capita: 30% (11% behind)

2013 - 2017:

Nominal growth per capita: 56%

PPP growth per capita: 33% (23% behind)

Do you see a trend here? Can it be accounted purely by Taka/USD pressure change? Or more willingness to hoard in black economy by the BD elite (if BBS household income survey is accurate)? Or more inflation getting through as "real"? Given GDDS standards in BD (and financial sector stasis), you tell me.....none of these are good phenomena.

It may not all be on "purpose" in real direct way by BAL...static standards have their own trade-offs as an economy gets bulkier/impulse loaded. This is why for example a large part of why the great stock market crash (and following great depression) happened.

BD needs to improve its standards, reform its finance sector and rebase/reset effectively its GDP reference. It is still not too late...and you still have a comfortable window to do this (given FPI is not huge into BD yet) before it becomes painful to do it.

BUT, to find proper solutions, you need to admit there is a problem rather than deluding its not there.

@Skies @bluesky @Ashes @Mage @Centaur

If growth rate was better from 2000-2009 , then why BNP was failing in various sectors , and BAL is successful in such fields like electrity , reducing extreme poverty etc etc ? Honestly I haven't very clear idea about it . Some comparative statements from you will be helpful.
@Nilgiri

 

[Nilgiri]

But I think income equity is now improved in BD .

Well BBS survey (household income) doesnt say that:

https://opinion.bdnews24.com/2017/12/18/where-did-the-benefits-of-economic-growth-disappear/

This is important because each household is a survey unit, so it "grasps" the average on the ground better than simply dividing nominal GDP/capita. In essence this BBS survey is showing that the full growth of BD between 2010 and 2016 is more or less captured by the very very few elite....esp if household sizes have not changed all that much (and they generally do not in just 6 years time - they tend to change over generation kind of time etc).

Real problem is banking sector in BAL era . I am wondering it's long term bad effect in BD economy.

It looks to be in bad shape and politicians are benefiting from it that way. The 2011? crash lessons regarding say BSEC and other regulators incompetence have not been learned I have heard and there is much gross mismanagement in the sector overall...when there ought to be drive to get stabilised and push reforms.

Before BD somewhat at least would benefit from new political party taking over every so many years (and booting old guys out and new guys in for bureaucracy stuff) so there would be a potential for renewal in some time periods (striking lucky with some competent new ppl etc)....but now it seems to be complete stasis with the nepotism entrenched. It can definitely have a really bad effect for BD long term esp for newer industries outside RMG that need attractive VC flows (and solid knowledge + experience + involvement inputs) and as little bureaucracy in between as possible.

And I told you before the better income of peoples who do odd jobs like house made , btc laubor etc etc ... . Still honestly I have less idea of how to develop a nation well .

Well BBS survey shows the incomes are not improving and maybe getting worse in real terms (i.e how much they can actually consume with what they earn (even if absolute cash amount if increasing).....because of things like effective inflation (whatever BD CPI officially is).

BAL is corrently doing very well in electicity sector as in this year almost no loadsheding even in this summer .

OK good. But @Tanveer666 said there still was some in his spot. Again of course things can improve if it becomes priority for a govt...and they do real reforms on it.

What was the fault of BNP that they failed in almost every sector and also they tried to loot military budget and now then paid price .
And BAL is doing better in various sectors that was actually necessary in order to end extreme poverty.

BNP sure has many faults, but again it should be left to BD people to decide on who is better and worse (as they experience on the ground rather than what govt puts on a paper brochure) and who deserves to have a chance to set things right/better....whatever their failures in past.

As far I can remember, there was no such bank corruption in BNP regime . Still why BNP failed horribly and BAL is doing in various sectors?

I don't know much about BNP period tbh to answer that. Maybe their priorities were different on what needs to be improved.

I know in TN case, there are two polarised parties much like BD....and lets say for both within the party bureaucrats 10% are quality, 90% are different levels of crap....the question becomes when you take power, where to deploy the 10% quality and 90% crap in the ministries....(and is the 10% and 90% even known to the party power brokers in first place to assign this way - or they just throw blind at a dartboard).

So maybe the "10% quality" of BNP and BAL were just assigned in different ways (either by design, chance or some combo) in the tenures of power...as simple as that.

Also the statistics show that gdp growth was higher from 2000-2009 . I am really confused now .

Its mostly because of low-base effect. When you are 100 dollars rich, and you gain 100 dollars....you effectively grew by 100%. When you have 1000 dollars, and you grow by same 100 dollars, you only grow by 10%...etc.

Maintaining high growth rate like before (when base was low) is near impossible because of this. Rather the question should be what is a good growth rate and what type of growth is happening for a current development level....rather than simply comparing with a decade or 2 decade ago period etc when some big new (compared to before) economic force was still young etc ...

....seems i replied before you edited your question to much shorter

 

[Centaur]

....seems i replied before you edited your question to much shorter

Lol yes I felt I should ask in short so i edited my reply, as it's the thread of @bluesky who is very sensitive about on topic/ off topic stuffs , so I try to be very careful in his thread .

OK good. But @Tanveer666 said there still was some in his spot. Again of course things can improve if it becomes priority for a govt...and they do real reforms on it.

As far I can remember, he said about 2/3 hours loadsheding in summer. And it's actually nothing compared to BNP regime's 15-16 hours ( yes you are reading correctly) loadsheding in 24 hours in my small hometown and neighboring towns.
Bigger towns power problem was slightly lesser still 10-12 hours in regular basis.
In my area it sometimes.increase to 3-1 mean 3 hours of loadsheding and one hour electricity.
Even Dhaka suffered from electricity crisis in many areas 7/8 hours or more in regular basis.
However maybe posh areas didn't suffer so much, not sure about this.
So you probably feel that 15-16 hours of loadsheding in a day of hot cruel summer, is literally hell. The problem is Bengal forget everything so maybe many of us forgot those days .

Its mostly because of low-base effect. When you are 100 dollars rich, and you gain 100 dollars....you effectively grew by 100%. When you have 1000 dollars, and you grow by same 100 dollars, you only grow by 10%...etc.

Maintaining high growth rate like before (when base was low) is near impossible because of this. Rather the question should be what is a good growth rate and what type of growth is happening for a current development level....rather than simply comparing with a decade or 2 decade ago period etc when some big new (compared to before) economic force was still young etc ...

Yes understand, we'll explained. Thank you.
@Nilgiri.

 

[Nilgiri]

As far I can remember, he said about 2/3 hours loadsheding in summer. And it's actually nothing compared to BNP regime's 15-16 hours ( yes you are reading correctly) loadsheding in 24 hours in my small hometown and neighboring towns.
Bigger towns power problem was slightly lesser still 10-12 hours in regular basis.
In my area it sometimes.increase to 3-1 mean 3 hours of loadsheding and one hour electricity.
Even Dhaka suffered from electricity crisis in many areas 7/8 hours or more in regular basis.
However maybe posh areas didn't suffer so much, not sure about this.
So you probably feel that 15-16 hours of loadsheding in a day of hot cruel summer, is literally hell. The problem is Bengal forget everything so maybe many of us forgot those days .

Hmm good to hear. But again BD people are the ones that should be allowed to rank this issue for general improvement etc....among everything else.

At some point there needs to be trust vested in BD people opinion....otherwise simply it turns into big govt knows best...and big govt will simply not care about the actual mandate itself.