Govt to float bonds to raise Rs1.8tr by pledging major airports and road networks

[ziaulislam]

No bro thats not happening, hence the recent desperation. Thats the word around

I was laughing at their comments. Right now their favorite point is FDI. These idiots dont know that because of that FDI which they are now boasting about their electricity bills went up.

On topic for educated posters.

It is a very positive development that sukuk are paid importance by this governemnt, their aim is to increase sukuk to 10% of national debt instead of usual T bills and PIB, thats encouraging. Debt mangement team especially at SBP is extraordinary (they are doing excellent work in restructuring debt).

Inflation is real and it will undo the goverment ans nothing the govt can do about it given global situation
If it artifically manages at we will be back to IMF
If it doesnt ..we will be back to maryum nawaz

 

[Kingslayerr]

No one can stop PTI.

Fazlu can. Remember he's so powerful he recently pressured IK on not giving bases to US.

 

[El Sidd]

Fazlu can. Remember he's so powerful he recently pressured IK on not giving bases to US.

If he can make them work for him like that, he no need stop them

 

[Norwegian]

If skuk bonds are better than other modes of borrowing why PTI was criticising PMLN on full throttle??

Can't PTI make mistakes Patwari?

 

[Norwegian]

One credit should be given to dar is that our FDI increased, major investment came and major investment.

Major investment came. Major foreign exchange left

Market base currency was the worst idea that came with.

Pakistan's currency is semi market based

perception worst than a default country.

Khota Biryani overdose

i would request to ask from your heart did we achieved anything in PTI era?

Saving country from default?

 

[Norwegian]

Did the state charge asad umar with pushing millions below the poverty line ?

Did the state punish Ishaq Dollar when he ran away to London while bankrupting Pakistan?

hence PMLN won again in 2018 in punjab(though tareen stole that mandidate)

Pmln was not in the position to make govt in Punjab as Pml Q and independents supported PTI. Difference of seats was just 5. So nothing was stolen from Pmln in Punjab.

Sindhis and balochis however made a "smart" choice .

Smart choice by choosing Bilawal Zardari??

 

[Norwegian]

Worst than 2018. We are way more worse than 2018 crisis.

Is Pakistan going bankrupt as it did back in 2018?

GDP is down
Inflation is up

Tax to GDP ratio is down
Food imports are up

Debt has ballooned massively
exports are stagnant

Average tax collection increase is way down than PMLN
Electricity, gas rates are up

Fiscal deficit is up
PKR value is down

Circular debt is up despite massive increase in electricity prices

Biryani overdose

Why can't we pledge golf courses and housing complexes as collateral??

Why can't we pledge Nawaz Sharifs London flats as collateral?

 

[Old School]

Government bonds will become more attractive when our credit rating gradually improves. This is a good decision to the right direction. Fiscal discipline needs a lot of improvement which has been damaged due to few decades of misrule by feudal clans.

 

[Norwegian]

@Patriot forever this is 90%mentality of pakistanis..you will seen ganja back in 2023 i will eat my words if it doesnt happen(unless election is rigged)

Elections were rigged to bring the Ganjas in 1990. No rigging is needed to keep them out.

1990 election was rigged, rules SC

The SC ordered legal proceedings against former army chief Aslam Baig and former ISI chief Asad Durrani over allegations of influencing the 1990 election.

www.dawn.com

Only PTI is facing problems. IMF has problems with PTI, ADB has problems with PTI, WB has problems with PTI, every single lender has problem with PTI because they do not buy buillshit.

That is why our Visa getting ban in Gulf countries, Saudi never asked ever to Pakistan to return loan only n PTI achieved this.

Yes all of Pakistan's problem started after PTI came in govt. Everything was hunky dory when your Nawaz Sharif was in govt.

Don't we have enough assets to raise funds to clear or minimize the debt?

Yes we can always sell Nawaz Sharifs London flats to minimize the debt

 

[Mentee]

Smart choice by choosing Bilawal Zardari??

Ethno facists from other territories of Pakistan stay in their okaat this way, ghaas na dalna. Punjab is taking the blame for the screw ups of federal govt as usual.

Did the state punish Ishaq Dollar when he ran away to London while bankrupting Pakistan?

Why would i.k extradite the number 2 when he and his cabinet at large arranged a safe exit for number one ?

 

[Jungibaaz]

because it was PML-N who increased the deficit both fiscal and CAD to such extent and then to address the deficit arranged finance by issuing high rates international bound .... and If I remember correctly [i have forget the details it happened when Ishaq Dar Finance Minister] one such transaction was made at 8% rate in USD while bonds issued by other countries were less than 5%

Ishaq Dar was THE REAL ECONOMIC HIT MAN in Pakistan.

This isn’t how pricing works. We can’t just take other countries as comps. Yields and yield curves shift. In Pakistan’s case, we had two major directional movers of our sovereign curve, first was the current account crisis, next was Covid. Both shifted our yield curve up.

Before that, we had other bailout cycles from the IMF. So a 10Y PAKGB in 2012 priced at 13.5% yield, then in 2016 we managed a 10Y at just under 8%, then in 2019 we had a 10Y price at 12.1%. And more moves in price in between, I’m not looking at secondary market prices, only issue yields where they’re publicly quoted.

As incompetent as Ishaq Dar was, I think any notion that he messed with bond pricing like this, or somehow got us uncompetitive spreads, these allegations need more thought and evidence.

 

[Patriot forever]

This isn’t how pricing works. We can’t just take other countries as comps. Yields and yield curves shift. In Pakistan’s case, we had two major directional movers of our sovereign curve, first was the current account crisis, next was Covid. Both shifted our yield curve up.

Before that, we had other bailout cycles from the IMF. So a 10Y PAKGB in 2012 priced at 13.5% yield, then in 2016 we managed a 10Y at just under 8%, then in 2019 we had a 10Y price at 12.1%. And more moves in price in between, I’m not looking at secondary market prices, only issue yields where they’re publicly quoted.

As incompetent as Ishaq Dar was, I think any notion that he messed with bond pricing like this, or somehow got us uncompetitive spreads, these allegations need more thought and evidence.

Yes yield curves are very much dependant on macro economic stability, on which a countrys credit ratings are based.

From 2016 onwards our rating was downgraded i think to B3 negative and unstable, later on by the end of 2019 i think we regained B3 +ve and stable outlook.

If we can somehow move to investment grade raring, our dependency on commercial chinese bank loans (not concessionary loans by state they are a great deal) IPP, IMF would end as it would allow us to easily roll over our maturing debt at low cost and raise capital for critical infrastructure projects.

PPP no matter how much corrupt they were they never played/manipulated our macroeconomic fundamentals. Musharraf gave them a 13b CAD (the currency was not manipualted though), by the time they left the governemnt CAD was at 4b (which is not bad) and currency was not manipulated either, exports were good aswell. Had we continued on that path we would have been in a much much better position.

The macro economic manipulation started as soon as plmn got into power. People only see the affects because our CAD started balloning only after 2016 but it was in the making since 2014.

( Credit @Norwegian)

Graph is of cyclic years not financial years so by Dec 2018 we REER vakue of 107 was achieved and 97 by Dec 2019 . It is a miracle how we managed a huge CAD of 19.5b along with a highly overvalued currency with meager reserves and high amount of maturing debt (which needed to be rolled over, i think more than 11b in FY 2019 vs 6b in FY2018).


I think it is not true to directly blame dar for bond yield but he is absolutely to be blammed for bond yield indirectly for creating the circumstances that warranted high yields.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Yes yield curves are very much dependant on macro economic stability, on which a countrys credit ratings are based.

From 2016 onwards our rating was downgraded i think to B3 negative and unstable, later on by the end of 2019 i think we regained B3 +ve and stable outlook.

If we can somehow move to investment grade raring, our dependency on commercial chinese bank loans (not concessionary loans by state they are a great deal) IPP, IMF would end as it would allow us to easily roll over our maturing debt at low cost and raise capital for critical infrastructure projects.

PPP no matter how much corrupt they were they never played/manipulated our macroeconomic fundamentals. Musharraf gave them a 13b CAD (the currency was not manipualted though), by the time they left the governemnt CAD was at 4b (which is not bad) and currency was not manipulated either, exports were good aswell. Had we continued on that path we would have been in a much much better position.

The macro economic manipulation started as soon as plmn got into power. People only see the affects because our CAD started balloning only after 2016 but it was in the making since 2014.

View attachment 756005

View attachment 756013
( Credit @Norwegian)

Graph is of cyclic years not financial years so by Dec 2018 we REER vakue of 107 was achieved and 97 by Dec 2019 . It is a miracle how we managed a huge CAD of 19.5b along with a highly overvalued currency with meager reserves and high amount of maturing debt (which needed to be rolled over, i think more than 11b in FY 2019 vs 6b in FY2018).


I think it is not true to directly blame dar for bond yield but he is absolutely to be blammed for bond yield indirectly for creating the circumstances that warranted high yields.

Yes, my point is that the high yield on a bond issue isn’t really determined by an evil finance minister. If it seems high, there is usually a reason, and every DMO on earth will try to price their deals tight vs FV. While trying to maintain good order books.

Put it this way, if Dar had made it so that we issued unreasonably expensive debt, based on market conditions and our then credit profile, it would price cheaply on primary markets. Then all the grey traders and secondary markets would immediately move it tighter and rake in loads of cash, it would be as near to arbitrage as one can get with illiquid names like PAKGB.

 

[Patriot forever]

Yes, my point is that the high yield on a bond issue isn’t really determined by an evil finance minister. If it seems high, there is usually a reason, and every DMO on earth will try to price their deals tight vs FV. While trying to maintain good order books.

Put it this way, if Dar had made it so that we issued unreasonably expensive debt, based on market conditions and our then credit profile, it would price cheaply on primary markets. Then all the grey traders and secondary markets would immediately move it tighter and rake in loads of cash, it would be as near to arbitrage as one can get with illiquid names like PAKGB.

I was seconding the point you raised sir. It is not possible for a finance minister to alter bond yield . It is determined by a host of factors the major one being credit ratings ( my post was in way highlighting our dismissal credit ratings and those responsible)

Bangladesh at 5.4% has moved past India 6% and we are at 9.9% I think. ( Wapda recently floated $500m 10 yr green bond (which is cheaper than normal bond) at 7.5% so a credit rating upgrade is on cards may be next year if we maintain discipline)

 

[Norwegian]

( Credit @Norwegian)

My financial tabligh is working