Govt Breaches limit. Adds external debt worth 15.3 billion USD

[dawn_news]

Also this article appeared in Dawn yesterday. How was it debunked a couple days ago ? and please share the source for 300 billion USD GDP figure for Pakistan ...AS PER IMF, ITS $ 241 BILLION.

Thats a stupid logic. We are talking of the increase (received debt) till June 2014.

I was talking about fiscal year ending 30th June 2014, which mean next month we will get official figures.. Early estimate put GDP around $300 billion. IMF figure is of 2012-13 fiscal year. So far SBP have not released any official figure of external debt.

I will update this thread in couple of months.

 

[karan.1970]

I was talking about fiscal year ending 30th June 2014, which mean next month we will get official figures.. Early estimate put GDP around $300 billion. IMF figure is of 2012-13 fiscal year. So far SBP have not released any official figure of external debt.

I will update this thread in couple of months.

$300 billion is not appearing in any valid estimates. The closest one is by IMF that pegs Pakistani GDP for 2014 at 241 billion USD.

Even if i take 241 as last year's number (which its not), Pakistan will need to grow at a gross rate of 25% to reach 300 billion USD. Give inflation is 9%, are you expecting real GDP growth of Pakistan to be 16% in fiscal year 2013-2014 ?

 

[dawn_news]

$300 billion is not appearing in any valid estimates. The closest one is by IMF that pegs Pakistani GDP for 2014 at 241 billion USD.

Even if i take 241 as last year's number (which its not), Pakistan will need to grow at a gross rate of 25% to reach 300 billion USD. Give inflation is 9%, are you expecting real GDP growth of Pakistan to be 16% in fiscal year 2013-2014 ?

Last year Pakistan GDP was Rs 26.3 trillion, this year its supposed to be between Rs 29-29.5 trillion, 4-5% gdp growth plus 8-9% inflation. Goverment have already started using Rs 29 trillion for next fiscal year, we just don't know exact figure. It can be 29 or 30 trillion.

 

[farhan_9909]

$300 billion is not appearing in any valid estimates. The closest one is by IMF that pegs Pakistani GDP for 2014 at 241 billion USD.

Even if i take 241 as last year's number (which its not), Pakistan will need to grow at a gross rate of 25% to reach 300 billion USD. Give inflation is 9%, are you expecting real GDP growth of Pakistan to be 16% in fiscal year 2013-2014 ?

I have already explained it many times to you dear.

Like india experienced 100Billion dollars growth rate(More than 16% back than) in the GDP(Nominal) between 2002-03 despite 6.9-7.1% Growth rate

For this to be proven Either browse World Bank through google trends or Wait 5 hours for me to post them.

Nuri Nath estimates are about 290-95Billion dollars But my estimate now is 310-12Billion dollars with 98rs exhange rate

 

[ziaulislam]

A 3.6 % growth on 231 billion - so 241 seems correct.

actually sir you also add inflation of 9.5% to that when calculation nominal (not purchasing power).so if it grows by 4.4 % you will add 14% to 236

 

[karan.1970]

I have already explained it many times to you dear.

Like india experienced 100Billion dollars growth rate(More than 16% back than) in the GDP(Nominal) between 2002-03 despite 6.9-7.1% Growth rate

For this to be proven Either browse World Bank through google trends or Wait 5 hours for me to post them.

Nuri Nath estimates are about 290-95Billion dollars But my estimate now is 310-12Billion dollars with 98rs exhange rate

Weird calculations IMO. 2012 Pakistan totaled 225 billion USD (exchange rate between 94 and 98) . with a 9% inflation and 4% real growth, you are expected to hit about $250 billion (even without forex dilution where exchange rate was between 96 and 106 for most of 2013)

Dont know where you are getting the estimates of $ 320 billion

 

[acid rain]

actually sir you also add inflation of 9.5% to that when calculation nominal (not purchasing power).so if it grows by 4.4 % you will add 14% to 236

The final GDP figures also take into consideration monthly and quarterly inflation sir.
The 4% gdp figure will already be minus the inflation.
The currency valuation is a factor though..

 

[ziaulislam]

Weird calculations IMO. 2012 Pakistan totaled 225 billion USD (exchange rate between 94 and 98) . with a 9% inflation and 4% real growth, you are expected to hit about $250 billion (even without forex dilution where exchange rate was between 96 and 106 for most of 2013)

Dont know where you are getting the estimates of $ 320 billion

he just simply pushing GDP with his good intentions
anyway to a common man the real deal is PP not nominal GDP. what i think has to be improved is per capita GDP(PP), the common pakistani doesnt care about pakistan-india competition as much as the indians do.
the indians might be bragging around but the bitter reality as their people are suffering as much as we are, as their GDP/capita(PP) is not much different. the next thing to look at is HDI and its break up, Lastly at gini index for the distribution of wealth..
despite incredible growth Chinese have shown for 30 years their percapita is stilll just below world average.
a reality check is that pakistan ranks 129 and india 123 in percapita GDP and we still act as super powers and spend ridiculously on defense projects.

 

[karan.1970]

he just simply pushing GDP with his good intentions
anyway to a common man the real deal is PP not nominal GDP. what i think has to be improved is per capita GDP(PP), the common pakistani doesnt care about pakistan-india competition as much as the indians do.
the indians might be bragging around but the bitter reality as their people are suffering as much as we are, as their GDP/capita(PP) is not much different. the next thing to look at is HDI and its break up, Lastly at gini index for the distribution of wealth..
despite incredible growth Chinese have shown for 30 years their percapita is stilll just below world average.
a reality check is that pakistan ranks 129 and india 123 in percapita GDP and we still act as super powers and spend ridiculously on defense projects.

 

[ziaulislam]

The final GDP figures also take into consideration monthly and quarterly inflation sir.
The 4% gdp figure will already be minus the inflation.
The currency valuation is a factor though..

http://www.raybromley.com/notes/realnominterest.html
a simplistic explanation

 

[VCheng]

http://www.raybromley.com/notes/realnominterest.html
a simplistic explanation

Nominal growth is corrected into real growth, not the other way around.

 

[ziaulislam]

Nominal growth is corrected into real growth, not the other way around.

ofcourse u right but a simplistic explanation for common man will be real growth=nominal-inflation
actual calculation is slightly complex

 

[HRK]

Debt to GDP ratio has nothing to do here. Neither is the fact about India's debt to GDP ratio. They both use a sum total of Domestic as well as Foreign debt.

The issue being discussed is the foreign debt and its relation with the forex reserves the country has. As Pakistan's forex reserves have moved from 9 billion to 12 billion, its external debt has moved from $ 60 billion to $ 72 billion.

In India's case, the external debt is close to $ 300 billion and is amply covered by India's forex reserves of $ 300+ billion. India's foreign debt to GDP ratio is close to 17% as compared to Pakistan's 30%

Plz comment about Indian Foregin Debt and its relation with Forex reserves ....

India's foreign debt to GDP ratio is close to 17% as compared to Pakistan's 30%

You should not be worried about our wellbeing ....

Download:
http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/DOCs/156T_BST130913.xls
http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/DOCs/157T_BST130913.xls

 

[karan.1970]

Plz comment about Indian Foregin Debt and its relation with Forex reserves ....

While the thread is not about India, but sure, I have already commented on that. India's Foreign Debt to Reserves ratio is 1.25 (USD 390 billion / USD 312 billion) against Pakistan's ratio of approx 6 (USD 72 billion / USD 12 billion)

Hence my comment on India being amply covered in terms of FOREX reserves to offset its external debt. The problem with the charts you have posted is that they show the change in Forex reserves and External debt and not the absolute values.

 

[HRK]

While the thread is not about India, but sure, I have already commented on that. India's Foreign Debt to Reserves ratio is 1.25 (USD 390 billion / USD 312 billion)

On Table 157 posted previously it is exclusively mentioned 'END MARCH', as of December 2013 India's external Debt stand at $ 425.970 Billion

link to the full report of Ministry of Finance India: http://finmin.nic.in/the_ministry/dept_eco_affairs/economic_div/External_Debt_QDEC2013.pdf

and Forex reserves stand at $ 295.708 Billion, your posted figure of $ 312 is bogus as even as of 02nd May 14 it is below your quoted figures. don't know what do you want to prove by this manipulation.

link of the report from Reserve Bank of India website: http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Wss/PDFs/2T_WSS03012014F.pdf

here one interesting thing to note here
A)
Indian Foreign Loan as of December-13 425.970 Billion $
Less: Indian Foreign Loan as of March-91 (83.801 Billion $)
Increment in F. loan over the Period 342.169 Billion $

B)
Indian Forex Reserves as of December-13 295.708 Billion $
Less: Indian Forex Reserves as of March-91 (5.834 Billion $)
Increment in F. Reserve over the Period 289.874 Billion $

Incremental figures of A & B suggest that Indian Forex reserves Increase because of Increase of Foreign Loans, as you were commenting earlier in the context of Pakistan, further to note India actually lost $ 52.295 billion of foreign loan in Trade deficit & other Foreign financial commitments over the period.

links already provided in my previous post.

against Pakistan's ratio of approx 6 (USD 72 billion / USD 12 billion)

Would you post any official document which can support your claim of 72 billion $ Foregin Loan of Pakistan.

Hence my comment on India being amply covered in terms of FOREX reserves to offset its external debt.

there is no economic analysis in which economist take ratio of Total Foreign Debt and Foregin Reserves as Foreign Debt is the liability to be paid over the period, the right way to analysis the F.Debt to F. reserve is Short Term F.Debt/ Forex Reserves.

The problem with the charts you have posted is that they show the change in Forex reserves and External debt and not the absolute values.

Download the tables from reserve Bank of India website links given in my previous post.