Government targets to deliver India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier by 2018 end

[sankranti]

Work on INS Vishal will begin in late 2016/early 2017 with a targetted date for sea trails in 2023/4. 7 or so years to build a 65,000 ton carrier is not even remotely ambitious for a ship-building industry at the level of maturity as India's. That said, if the INS Vishal is tobe nuclear powered this may add time to construction and so may stratch to 8-9 years for the first of class vessel- all follow on ships of the class will have contracted build times.

So a 40 K Ton Vikrant takes 10 Years, But a 65-75 K Ton who's design is not yet ready will take 7 years ?

You should know that the design of Vikrat started in 1999. The keel laying in 2008 and delivery in 2018.

What does that tell you ? That Vishal will be ready in 7 years ?

Indian Navy started looking for P3 in 2004, was offered P-8I in 2007 and decision taken in 2009. That is 5 years from decision to purchase to actually placing an order.

Compare that with EMALS. The EMALS negotiations will itself take 3-5 years. Once that is done the AC will have to be designed along with the new Power, Space, etc requirement. When will that start ? 2019 ? 2020 ? the design itself will take 2-3 years to be complete, verified and approved. Then keel laying and then at least 10 years to complete.

Add all that up and what do you get ?

As far as actual fleet and committed budget is concerned, right now INS Vikramaditya is part of fleet, IAC 1 (INS Vikrant) will join sometime in 2018-19 and funding is cleared for a 65-70,000 Ton IAC 2 (INS Vishal), which is a flat deck AC.
Simultaneously INS Viraat is slated to be retired in a couple of years from now. So by 2025-30 IN should have 3 ACs for sure. Beyond that will depend on funding.

You are mistaken, the Program Funding has been cleared. Not the funding for the Actual AC, that will happen much later.

 

[anant_s]

the Program Funding has been cleared. Not the funding for the Actual AC, that will happen much later.

I'm not denying that.
IAC 2 still has a lot of design phase decisions pending (motive power included) and recently with US offering EMALS and possibly E2D as well along with speculated assistance in design and manufacture of ship, things may take a while.
My point is government is firm on decision of IAC 2 (Vishal) and now as things start settling, more funding will come as it happens for most such projects.

 

[Abingdonboy]

So a 40 K Ton Vikrant takes 10 Years, But a 65-75 K Ton who's design is not yet ready will take 7 years ?

I've already outlined why this 10 year figure is not representive for the IAC-1 (that already looks to be including sea trails into the timeline). Take out time for delays in sourcing specifc materials and the loss of equipment in very specific circumstances that won't be replicated again, the true time for the IAC-1's build is 7-8 years.

The IAC-2 will take 7-8 years to build because the infrastructure, capacity and know how are now in place for ships of this class.

You should know that the design of Vikrat started in 1999. The keel laying in 2008 and delivery in 2018.

the design itself will take 2-3 years to be complete, verified and approved

The IAC-2's design is effectively complete but awaiting a decsion on propulsion/EMALS as you have rightly pointed out. But it won't take 2-3 addtional years from now to come up with a final design.

Compare that with EMALS. The EMALS negotiations will itself take 3-5 years

Well this is the big unknown and what is stalling the entire process but given these talks have been going on for some time now (even preliminary discussion were held under the UPA) and the new GoI is looking to be decisive in its relationship with the US we shouldn't be waiting much longer. Once the clearance is given (if it is), final designs will be cleared in 18 months and the keel laid.


I've spoken to some industry experts on this matter and they say the GoI/MoD is being urged to begun preliminary production work on the IAC-2 now without a final decsion being made on the propulsion and or EMALS/Steam catapults as much of the basics will remain the same no matter what. But I think it is only right to hold off on such work until all aspects of the ship are agreed upon- look at the QE Class debacle to see what can happen when you start messing around with designs once the ships are already being built.

 

[sankranti]

I'm not denying that.
IAC 2 still has a lot of design phase decisions pending (motive power included) and recently with US offering EMALS and possibly E2D as well along with speculated assistance in design and manufacture of ship, things may take a while.
My point is government is firm on decision of IAC 2 (Vishal) and now as things start settling, more funding will come as it happens for most such projects.

No doubt. But INS Vishal is a good 15-18 years away.

I've already outlined why this 10 year figure is not representive for the IAC-1 (that already looks to be including sea trails into the timeline). Take out time for delays in sourcing specifc materials and the loss of equipment in very specific circumstances that won't be replicated again, the true time for the IAC-1's build is 7-8 years.

The IAC-2 will take 7-8 years to build because the infrastructure, capacity and know how are now in place for ships of this class.

The IAC-2's design is effectively complete but awaiting a decsion on propulsion/EMALS as you have rightly pointed out. But it won't take 2-3 addtional years from now to come up with a final design.

Well this is the big unknown and what is stalling the entire process but given these talks have been going on for some time now (even preliminary discussion were held under the UPA) and the new GoI is looking to be decisive in its relationship with the US we shouldn't be waiting much longer. Once the clearance is given (if it is), final designs will be cleared in 18 months and the keel laid.

HMS Queen Elizabeth keel was laid on 2008 and it is expected to be complete by 2017 i.e 9 Years for Britain. .... and you are talking about India.

The Design is a long way off. Before the design an begin, they first have to determine if it will have EMALS or not, if it will be Nuclear power of conventional powered.

Since these decisions are inter-related, there is no way one can start the design if one do know know these fundamental design parameters.

So that means the designing process is effectively frozen till a decision on EMALS is taken.

Now the real problem with the EMALS is the other 3 overarching agreements with Indian govt. i.e the Bilateral Treaties.

The Logistic support agreement (LSA), Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CMOSA), the Inspection agreement etc. Now all these are treaties that imping on India's sovereignty so its unlikely India will sign it. So that means no EMALS.

Now if there has to be a way around it, it take time and Obama's term will end before that. i.e. provide exception to India. If a new govt. comes ten expect the negotiations to stretch for a few more years. i.e at least 4 years.

IF everything goes well THEN we start negotiation with GA for EMALS. That Negotiations will take at least 2 years. Consider our progress on Shinanwa U-2 aircrafts as an indicator of progress.

THEN IF we agree on the EMALS then we do the power calculations and THEN the design of the Vishal starts in Ernest.

Now we are talking about designing a small Nuclear powered floating CITY. its not a joke and will take its own sweet time. You make initial preliminary design, Then review it and find faults. Then you correct the design faults. Conduct simulations to ensure the faults were corrected. Review the reports and then conduct a Prelimnary design Review again. Again find the faults. Redesign to cover those faults. Conduct an evaluation of the modifications. Then you conduct a Critical design review. Find faults and then correct those faluts.

By that time some new changes are required by customer, so the design is again reviews and modified.

Then the design goes for approval and budgeting. Now estimate how long this whole thing will take.

Then you have to write test cases, Quality assurance process, Quality standards, Vendor assessment, etc.

Then after all this is reviewed and approved, the Keel laying starts.

I've spoken to some industry experts on this matter and they say the GoI/MoD is being urged to begun preliminary production work on the IAC-2 now without a final decsion being made on the propulsion and or EMALS/Steam catapults as much of the basics will remain the same no matter what. But I think it is only right to hold off on such work until all aspects of the ship are agreed upon- look at the QE Class debacle to see what can happen when you start messing around with designs once the ships are already being built.

Its not possible to do that. EMALS is the core of the AC and the power requirement for the EMALS will determine its propulsion between Conventional drive and Electric drive.

 

[migflug]

No doubt. But INS Vishal is a good 15-18 years away.



HMS Queen Elizabeth keel was laid on 2008 and it is expected to be complete by 2017 i.e 9 Years for Britain. .... and you are talking about India.

The Design is a long way off. Before the design an begin, they first have to determine if it will have EMALS or not, if it will be Nuclear power of conventional powered.

Since these decisions are inter-related, there is no way one can start the design if one do know know these fundamental design parameters.

So that means the designing process is effectively frozen till a decision on EMALS is taken.

Now the real problem with the EMALS is the other 3 overarching agreements with Indian govt. i.e the Bilateral Treaties.

The Logistic support agreement (LSA), Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CMOSA), the Inspection agreement etc. Now all these are treaties that imping on India's sovereignty so its unlikely India will sign it. So that means no EMALS.

Now if there has to be a way around it, it take time and Obama's term will end before that. i.e. provide exception to India. If a new govt. comes ten expect the negotiations to stretch for a few more years. i.e at least 4 years.

IF everything goes well THEN we start negotiation with GA for EMALS. That Negotiations will take at least 2 years. Consider our progress on Shinanwa U-2 aircrafts as an indicator of progress.

THEN IF we agree on the EMALS then we do the power calculations and THEN the design of the Vishal starts in Ernest.

Now we are talking about designing a small Nuclear powered floating CITY. its not a joke and will take its own sweet time. You make initial preliminary design, Then review it and find faults. Then you correct the design faults. Conduct simulations to ensure the faults were corrected. Review the reports and then conduct a Prelimnary design Review again. Again find the faults. Redesign to cover those faults. Conduct an evaluation of the modifications. Then you conduct a Critical design review. Find faults and then correct those faluts.

By that time some new changes are required by customer, so the design is again reviews and modified.

Then the design goes for approval and budgeting. Now estimate how long this whole thing will take.

Then you have to write test cases, Quality assurance process, Quality standards, Vendor assessment, etc.

Then after all this is reviewed and approved, the Keel laying starts.



Its not possible to do that. EMALS is the core of the AC and the power requirement for the EMALS will determine its propulsion between Conventional drive and Electric drive.

such a long process. I agree that it may take another 10 to 15 year even with all those fundings

 

[sankranti]

such a long process. I agree that it may take another 10 to 15 year even with all those fundings

I guarantee you it will take 20 years.

 

[GR!FF!N]

Is India looking to have 4 aircrafts in total or are the new ones going to replace the current two?

For now,IN is targeting 3.1 under Eastern Command,1 under Western and 1 for refit while other 2 serve.

INS Viraat is soon going to retire.INS Viky,INS Vikrant and INS Vishal will be in our fleet by 2025 .

 

[Mike_Brando]

"date of delivery" suggests this would be after completion of sea trails. Bear in mind this is (by far) that largest warship ever deisgned and built in India, the first of its class and at least 2 years of delays were incurred when a road accident wrote off the gearboxes meant for this ship.

All the lessons learnt would be applied to hasten any such production in the future. Look at the P-17s, they took 6-7 years the first time around now the P-17As will take just 60 months to build despite being larger and more advanced. The same is true for the P-15Bs vis a vis the P-15As.

Man,i must the fact that you're one hell of an optimistic guy when it comes to having faith on the Indian defense establishment.Well goo for you,perhaps all of us here can learn this optimism of yours!!!

 

[Archie]

INS Vishal before 2030 is a pipe dream

Navy has more pressing needs than another carrier which will require an equally expensive battle group for protection