Global Times: How cooperation among China, Russia and Iran will be updated under Raisi era

[beijingwalker]

Global Times: How cooperation among China, Russia and Iran will be updated under Raisi era
By Niu Song
Published: Jun 27, 2021 04:09 PM

Ebrahim Raisi speaks after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tehran, Iran, June 18, 2021. Photo: Xinhua

Ebrahim Raisi has won Iran's presidential election, as expected. Educated in the seminary, Raisi has served in several positions in Iran's judicial system. He ascended from chief justice to president and is likely to be the next supreme leader. His life experience features both hard line and Shia clerics.

When it comes to the Raisi administration's foreign policy, two aspects should be considered. Firstly, in terms of dealing with the West, Raisi is expected to take a tough line in defending Iran's economic and security interests. In January, 2020, Raisi said that Iran planned to sue the then US president Donald Trump for the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani. In January 2021, Raisi warned that Soleimani's killers "will not be safe on Earth," during a ceremony in Tehran to mark the one-year anniversary of the drone assassination of Soleimani.

"Do not presume that someone, as the president of America, who appeared as a murderer or ordered a murder, may be immune from justice being carried out. Never," said Raisi, adding, "those who had a role in this assassination and crime will not be safe on Earth."

Secondly, Raisi will attach great importance to strengthening security cooperation and religious ties with Islamic countries, and pay close attention to the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

Regardless of his hard line, Raisi's top priority is to address livelihood problems caused by the US sanctions. Although Raisi is talking tough, rejecting the possibility of meeting with US President Joe Biden, this does not mean Raisi's government will take a radical confrontational policy against the US. After Raisi's new government formally takes office, hardliners in Iran are likely to promote a new nuclear agreement, which will be helpful for improving Iran's economy.

Raisi will be formally inaugurated as Iran's president on August 3, when the US-Iran relationship might witness many possibilities. On the whole, whether the Raisi administration admits it or not, Washington will remain an important and even the primary factor affecting Iran's domestic and diplomatic interests.

Some analysts argue that Raisi will center his foreign policy on the "Look East" strategy, which means closer cooperation with China and Russia after he takes office. The advancement of Iran-China relations and Iran-Russia relations has always been supported by the supreme leader Khamenei. The Raisi administration will continue the existing cooperation framework and mechanisms with China and Russia. Iran's relations with China and Russia are hopeful to enjoy development in the following two fields.

First, China and Russia are likely to take further active steps on the Iranian nuclear deal, especially by hosting events to address relevant problems. Raisi will continue to emphasize the roles of China and Russia in helping restore the nuclear deal.

Second, China and Russia may, within the framework of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), further exert the positive influence of Islamic factors on the trilateral relations between China, Russia and Iran.

Raisi is not only the next president, but also the possible supreme leader. The Islamic factor will be an important ideological foundation for his foreign policy. On June 13, China's first-appointed representative to the OIC submitted his appointment letter to the secretary-general of the organization, which marked the establishment of China's institutional links with the organization. Besides, Russia is an observer country of the OIC. This provides a new opportunity for China and Russia to strengthen exchanges and coordination with Iran on Iran-related issues within the framework of OIC.

Nonetheless, Iran under the Raisi era is unlikely to form an alliance with China and Russia. In other words, Raisi will not take sides between the US and China and Russia. To a large extent, Raisi's foreign policy has two dimensions: taking a tough attitude toward Washington and deepening political and religious ties with the Islamic world. After all, China and Russia are not Islamic countries. After taking office, the Raisi government will continue the practices of the Hassan Rouhani government, and will maintain a relatively close interaction with China and Russia. It may further develop the 25-year cooperation agreement with China. However, this will not lead to a so-called new alliance between Iran, China and Russia. Besides, Beijing and Moscow have shown no desire to form such an alliance.

How cooperation among China, Russia and Iran will be updated under Raisi era - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

 

[zectech]

Iran needs to make about 100K HM-41 per year, for ten years, costing 20-40K euros per piece. That would be 2-4 billion euros on artillery. Half field, other half light mountain. And make 5000 or more short range air defense per year to protect artillery from drones, guided bombed, cruise missiles. Costing 100K per mobile unit due to economy of scales. That is 500M euros per year. In addition, Iran needs an endless supply of high altitude ADS to further protect these assets.

This would give enough time to fill the gap of hypersonic missiles attack from enemies of Iran. You have to swarm the enemy of targets and defend those targets with ADS. Drones would be an option to destroy the artillery, so you have mass produced ADS to protect them. Make an invasion too expensive. 1000000 Howitzer artillery would defend from beach attack.

In 10 years, hopefully Iran would have a defense against hypersonic glide vehicles.

Artillery is the lowest of the modern weapons, however can be much less expensive than something like aircraft. You want too many targets, long range towed howitzer artillery is the cheapest for effectiveness. Cheaper than tanks and ADS.

Ideally for this to work, you want the cost per HM-41 to be as low as possible. Maybe a corporate profit of 100 euros per piece. So possibly make them for 15K euros each for the heavier field ones.

Iran would need to train Iranians in how to use these as conscripts in a time of war.

For the cost of about 60 Iranian destroyers that can be sunk in a matter of minutes, Iran can buy a long time of delay. 1M targets are really tough to destroy. Protected by 50K ADS is even tougher.

And later you can supply excess units to Syria to defend Syrian independence. Once Iran has enough ADS for defending from newer missiles.

A year ago I said making cheap tosan tanks would be the effective means. I am going even cheaper with howitzers, here. You can deploy a radar warning to warn personnel of incoming bomb to save lives with these are manned in threat of invasion. You simply lose 20K euros per guided bomb hitting a howitzer. And then you can recycle the material and make another. This is much better than tosan tanks.

And crunch the numbers of how long it would take for an airforce to swarm the short range air defense systems, 50K of them. And then destroy 1M artillery units scattered around Iran by air strikes. That is a long time. Many, many months.

EW won't work to destroy a howizter, you can't emp a howitzer. The anti-personnel EW would work against Iranian soldiers.

The ADS would have to be protected by cheaper ADS from swarms. Not only group them together, 1.5 km apart, so a MOAB would only destroy one unit, get more cheaper CIWS ADS to provide further protection. Deploy 20K howitzers and 1K short range ADS at a time on the southern coast. Keeping the rest scattered scattered around Iran separated from each other. You would need enough trucks to tow them to the front lines in the south.

As an invasion arrives, you group them closer together to repel an attack along the whole coast.

The area of concern is during an attack, your enemy would try to gum up communication so there is not a artillery barrage defense, since these are kms away from the battlefield. So Iran get motorcycles to relay info into which beach to barrage. Or color coded lanterns system. Or pick another way to let the artillery know when and where to attack.

 

[hualushui]

Iran has unrealistic expectations of the United States and Europe.
After the signing of the nuclear agreement in 2014, Iran treated Chinese companies unfairly.
When the United States withdrew from the agreement, Iran hoped that China would increase investment.
The anti-China atmosphere in Iran is very strong, and the upper class in Iran is fashionable to use European luxury goods.
I am not optimistic about Iran.

 

[aziqbal]

Iran has unrealistic expectations of the United States and Europe.
After the signing of the nuclear agreement in 2014, Iran treated Chinese companies unfairly.
When the United States withdrew from the agreement, Iran hoped that China would increase investment.
The anti-China atmosphere in Iran is very strong, and the upper class in Iran is fashionable to use European luxury goods.
I am not optimistic about Iran.

but do the counties have free independent judiciary system, do they have a free press, do the have free and fair elections can the people of these nations go into the city centre of the capital city make image of their prime minster and call them out on corruption?

can they openly call and and ask for freedom of religion ?

if the answer is no then all the money and big shiny buildings mean nothing

 

[beijingwalker]

but do the counties have free independent judiciary system, do they have a free press, do the have free and fair elections can the people of these nations go into the city centre of the capital city make image of their prime minster and call them out on corruption?

can they openly call and and ask for freedom of religion ?

if the answer is no then all the money and big shiny buildings mean nothing

Maybe Afghanistan has all, but international expacts choose come to China to live and study, not Afghanistan. What attract people are economic development level, standard of living and personal opportunities, not empty ideologies.

 

[Aramagedon]

Future is three things :

1- China

2- China

3- China

Thank God rouhani the devil and his thief cabinet are gone.

 

[beijingwalker]

President Xi Jinping congratulates Ebrahim Raisi on being elected President of Iran 習近平主席祝賀萊西當選伊朗總統