In fact I think the forecast for China's full year GDP in 2022 would be overstated here.
The forecast shared here was released by IMF in April, which means the data collected and studies done was probably in Feb/March. They probably did not account for the mass Shanghai lockdown from April to June, and the depreciation of the RMB against the USD in late-April.
View attachment 863285
Get the latest 1 US Dollar to Chinese Yuan Renminbi rate for FREE with the original Universal Currency Converter. Set rate alerts for to and learn more about US Dollars and Chinese Yuan Renminbi from XE - the Currency Authority.
www.xe.com
China's 2022H1 GDP:
So for China's full year GDP to exceed $20T, their 2022H2 GDP needs to hit ~$12T, which is almost 50% larger than 2022H1 GDP of ~$8T.
Yeah, not likely.
View attachment 863292
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with the People's Republic of China
www.imf.org
^Projections made by IMF for China, released in April.
The RMB has depreciated ~6% against the USD this year. Assuming no further changes in exchange rates, full year real GDP growth is around 4.5%, inflation is around 2%, China's nominal GDP growth in USD terms would be around:
-6% + 4.5% + 2% = ~0.5%.
So full year GDP in USD terms would be around USD17T in 2022.
Of course these are just estimates, there are still many variables which can happen in the second half of the year. Rolling out aggressive stimulus which will push up growth and inflation? Or more widespread Covid lockdowns across China which will dampen demand and slow growth and inflation? Divergent monetary policy between the US and China which adds more pressure on the RMB? Etc.
If you ask me, I don't think China would change their basic policy on Covid anytime soon. And with the current spread of more infectious Omicron, I don't see a sharp rebound of their GDP growth for 2022H2, which means full year GDP growth would be even more muted.
You mean in 2022?
Shared my thoughts on China above.
For the US, it's more like $2.3T based on OP. The increase in nominal GDP is driven more by inflation than real GDP growth though.
View attachment 863293
^Projections made by IMF for the US, released in April.
The increase in nominal GDP for the US is probably also going to be overstated. Last week, the IMF has already revised US's real GDP growth for the year downwards to 2.3% due to tightening monetary policies:
The US economy is forecast to grow 2.3% this year, down from 2.9% predicted in June. Read more at straitstimes.com.
www.straitstimes.com
But it also seems like full year inflation for the US is going to be higher than 7.7%, so maybe that can make up for the fall in real GDP growth lololol.
View attachment 863296
Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in November from 2.60 percent in October of 2024. This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com