This is one more reason for “them” to allow actual free and fair elections, which would inevitably see IK return to power.
Under a second IK administration, after the nation makes the hard economic reforms it needs it, Pakistan could form a new understanding with Afghanistan with the help of the Central Asian nations and China.
IK could, with the right thought out agreement formed by economists, diplomats and think tanks, craft a long term agreement between the two nations, where they would recognize the border as the boundary between administration from Peshawar (which continues to swear allegiance to Islamabad) and the other side as administration from Kabul, but have in place agreements that allow free movement of people (with some restrictions for safety and smuggling), sharing business opportunities under the BRI, and rehabilitation financing.
De facto the Afghans know that whatever side the Pashtuns of KPK and Baluchistan stand with, the Afghans will have to respect, and at this crucial time, IK is the only personality that could make lasting peace between the two nations, not the least for his stance against the GWOT for the last 20+ years.
One concrete thing that could be done under IK, is issue each Afghan Refugee and their descendants in Pakistan an Afghan ID card, and offer them services the way Pakistani Citizens are offered services, but give them back a status of a citizen of a nation, Afghanistan. These Afghans wouldn’t be force to move back, but would be resident aliens of another nation residing in Pakistan; having a legal status. This would in a way help Afghanistan say it is no longer a country at war, with Refugees, and could move towards international recognition.
The sooner Pakistan recognizes them (after such a deal is made), and gets economic projects off the ground, the sooner more nations will recognize them, when they see the economic benefits of dealing with a nation with trillions in minerals and open for business.
What the Talibs seek most is legitimacy, and with IK as the honest face in front of our national interests, we could strike a hard bargain that allows Pakistan to leverage its advantages to form a lasting agreement. Retd. Gen. Tariq Khan could be the advisor to the PM on any deal from a military point of view. One that will be vital if a Trans-Afghan Railway is going to be of any use to Pakistan and it’s geo-strategic interests of marketing itself as the
Gatekeeper of the only direct land route to Central Asia through a corridor friendly to western investors (outside of the influence of Russia, Iran, and China or the Caspian which Iran and/or Russia could threaten).
Beyond Afghanistan are the trillions more in resources in Central Asia. With the older generation of Soviet leaders of these Central Asian nations dying out or their protégés looking for new partners, now it the time for Western and GCC MNCs to move into Central Asia.
With the authority of a stable government in Islamabad, a stable government in Peshawar, and a stable government in Kabul, if coupled with a roadmap to international recognition, investment and support in wiping out Daesh, the Afghans could have an economy that would allow them to divest from smuggling of narcotics and other goods, and join the global resources trade, and move up the value added ladder. That could be a market in which Pakistani business could sell products as well, on preferential terms, with the right agreement between the two countries.
Pakistan and Afghanistan could also negotiate a mutual defense treaty if an agreement is formed, and thing go well for a few years, decreasing the need for money to be spend on border forces, and more on each other’s infrastructure, education and healthcare. All areas Pakistani companies could get more contracts in, paid for by the Afghans from their mineral wealth.
Ultimately, we need a deal that ends any perceived benefits certain Pashtun groups are trying to convince Afghans will be could gain by making irredentist claims but are just cover for their criminal smuggling behaviors (such as the TTP and Daesh). We need an economic plan for Afghans in Afghanistan and living in Pakistan for decades. One that benefits both nation and makes both nations interdependent and the border real but mostly a formality, like the US/Canadian Border.
We need the Afghan Taliban to delegitimize the TTP and any other group that may try to spring up to replace it.
www.reuters.com
