Geopolitics of Eurasia+ region

[kalu_miah]

Dude our foreign minister is a muslim,ex president was a muslim,most of our fav bollywood stars are muslims,muslims play in our national and state sports teams,our present head of intelligence bureau is a muslim and you still think we hate muslims?

Take a referendum vote in support of a SAARC union among Indian population with a list of countries they like to be included in this Union. Most Indians will suport inclusion of:

Maldives (too small)
Nepal
Bhutan
Sri Lanka
Burma (already part of ASEAN)

and reject Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

This is not going to change in next 100 years. Not that any of these countries would want to be in a SAARC union, but just stating the reality as it is with public opinion in India.

 

[kalu_miah]

cross posted from GCC+ thread:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180771-geopolitics-gcc-region-7.html#post3916236

My earlier prediction was that GCC+ will remain and integrate with regional unions in Eurasian land mass. But considering the continuing influence of Arab Nationalism, I think the following is a more likely scenario:

- Asia will integrate in two areas, East and South East Asia (ASEAN+), Central and West Asia (Eurasia+)
- GCC+ will not integrate with Central and West Asia
- instead GCC+ will integrate with Maghreb region in North Africa under Arab League
- Arab League will integrate with Sub-saharan countries in a combined African Union-GCC+
- Sub-saharan countries have following regional efforts:
African Union - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA)
the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD)
the East African Community (EAC)
the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC)

Iraq will be partitioned along Shia, Sunni and Kurdish population centers. Only Sunni part will become part of GCC+ while Shia and Kurdish part will become independent and remain with other regional unions in Eurasian landmass, together with Iran and Turkey.

Simiarly Syria will be partitioned along Kurdish and Arab lines. Kurdish part will join independent Kurdistan. The Arab part will become an integral part of GCC+. Alawite Latakia may become independent and remain with Eurasia+.

So the current conflict in the region can be looked at as a struggle to define a border between two great continental group of nations, Africa-GCC+ and Eurasia+.
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180767-geopolitics-eurasia-region-2.html#post3916234

 

[kalu_miah]

Continuing the train of thought from above post, I predict that Eurasia+ will integrate in two different regions, the Northern Eurasia+, which will be Putin's Eurasian Union, or the reincarnation of the Soviet Union, old wine in a new bottle. The Southern Eurasia+ will have the following countries:

- Turkey
- Iran
- Shia part of Iraq (as described in above post)
- Pakistan
- Afghanistan

Both Northern and Southern Eurasia+ will eventually develop strong defense and economic alliance with China as well as with the Northern and Southern wings at a later stage. Existing NATO allied countries such as Turkey and non-NATO allies like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Georgia, Armenia etc. will eventually move over to greater SCO umbrella (Tier 1), under a common Eurasia+ 2nd tier security arrangement.

As with all regional bodies, the key for great powers and aspiring great powers is to understand that helping a semi-independent regional body to integrate will empower the member countries and make that regional body a reliable ally for the foreseeable future.

So the slogan is:

Forget the past Divide and Rule, the future belongs to those who Unite and Empower.

 

[Varunastra]

Take a referendum vote in support of a SAARC union among Indian population with a list of countries they like to be included in this Union. Most Indians will suport inclusion of:

Maldives (too small)
Nepal
Bhutan
Sri Lanka
Burma (already part of ASEAN)

and reject Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

This is not going to change in next 100 years. Not that any of these countries would want to be in a SAARC union, but just stating the reality as it is with public opinion in India.

are you Indian??

 

[kalu_miah]

are you Indian??

Just do a survey among the people you know, off line and in real life. And then let us know the result. You could also run a poll among Indian posters in PDF. I am curious to find out the results and see if it matches my perception. I would love to be proven wrong. That way I can adjust my theory and look for meaning for the new data.

 

[kalu_miah]

Turkey Gets Dialogue Partner Status in SCO | World | RIA Novosti
Turkey and Shanghai Cooperation Organization to be dialogue partners
Is Turkey Leaving the West? :: Daniel Pipes
Is Turkey bluffing about joining Shanghai Cooperation Organization? - English pravda.ru
Turkey: Abandoning the EU for the SCO? | The Diplomat

Turkey moving towards East as predicted.

 

[Ahiska]

I dont really believe Erdogan is turning to the east he only says that so he can get attention

 

[-SINAN-]

Turkey Gets Dialogue Partner Status in SCO | World | RIA Novosti
Turkey and Shanghai Cooperation Organization to be dialogue partners
Is Turkey Leaving the West? :: Daniel Pipes
Is Turkey bluffing about joining Shanghai Cooperation Organization? - English pravda.ru
Turkey: Abandoning the EU for the SCO? | The Diplomat

Turkey moving towards East as predicted.

Nope mate, i can definitely say that's a move to shake EU because of the very slow going membership process.

 

[livingdead]

Just do a survey among the people you know, off line and in real life. And then let us know the result. You could also run a poll among Indian posters in PDF. I am curious to find out the results and see if it matches my perception. I would love to be proven wrong. That way I can adjust my theory and look for meaning for the new data.

currently bangladesh is viewed more positively than sri lanka... its approval rating is higher than even russia. I think there was a thread about that survey last week.

 

[kalu_miah]

The recent changes in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea by Russia and possible further annexation of Eastern Ukraine has surfaced the following trends that has been brewing for some years:

- NATO's eastward expansion is ongoing, but it hit a brick wall in Ukraine, essentially it will end in Ukraine and not go further east
- Russia is in a collision course with the West, so there is a good chance that Russia will become closer to China and other Asian nations to its South, there is diminished chance of Russia ever joining EU in the very long term
- chances of a Eurasian Union is now diminished as well, as neighbor states with significant Russian population will fear Crimea style annexation. Kazakhstan fits this bill perfectly. There is rumor I heard from Kazakhs that Nazarbayev moved the capital to Astana in northern Kazakhstan, which is more heavily populated by Russians, just so that there is more Kazakhs there to bring some demographic balance, to prevent a future breakaway situation like Crimea. It seems that he is a far sighted man after all
- there is now a possibility for a Southern Eurasian Union, including 5 former Soviet Stans, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Azerbaijan
- Mongolia may return to China voluntarily
- Georgia, Armenia, Belarus and Moldova may opt the EU/NATO route, if they see success with Ukraine in EU/NATO

So, in summary, both US/EU's relentless push for NATO/EU expansion in Eastern Europe and Russia's apprehension and nervous response will increase the likelihood of above situation. This is great news for non-Western countries, as the fear of Russia's eventual joining of EU has been removed. This is also bad news for countries who are banking on the West, such as Japan, India etc. Russia moving closer to China is also another bad news for India, as it will mean that India will no longer be able to balance alliance between Russia and the West. The Russian door will eventually close for India and India will find itself at the mercy of the West, for advanced weapon supply, which will be far more expensive than Russian weapons systems.