cross posted from another thread:
I have been suggesting one for the longest time, Pakistan should make a deal with Russia:
- Pakistan and Afghanistan will both join Putin's Eurasia Union and will urge Iran to do the same (Mongolia should join too, but not relevant here)
- All 4 new countries joining Eurasian Union get full strategic and military protection from any threat from outside power
- in return Russian relation with any non-member country must be agreed to by all member states of this expanded Eurasian union, as is natural and common for any regional union
Problem solved. Pakistan will never have to worry about Indian threat again.
Win-win for all, because the region will stabilize and no more worries about "terrrist" safe haven here.
The best solution is a confederation of Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan and the six former Muslim republics of Soviet Union. This would only happen with the support of Russia / China. It will have a domestic market of nearly 500 million people and a potential of 10 Trillion USD. It will have a huge land mass as being the third Largest country (landwise) and a third most populated country.
All such projections including the one I made are of course exercises in imagination. But its good to consider different possible scenario:
1. Eurasian Union with all former Soviet Republics (including 5 stans) + Mongolia +Iran + Afghan + Pakistan
2.
- Eurasian Union with all former Soviet Republics (including 5 stans) + Mongolia
- Turkey+Iran+Afghan+Pakistan
3.
- Eurasian Union + Mongolia - 5 Central Asian stans - Azerbaijan
- Turkey+Iran+Afghan+Pakistan+5stans+Azerbaijan
What you have proposed is No. 3, while I have proposed No. 1. But No. 2 is more likely than No. 3.
Reasons:
- former Soviet states such as 5 Central Asian stans and Azerbaijan in Caucasus region are Russianized, Russian speaking and have long history of Russia influence
- even before Soviet Union, they used to be part of Russian empire:
Russian Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- all of them are still kind of satellite states or vassal states of Russia
- many of them have significant Russian population, although diminishing with time. Kazakhstan still has the largest number of ethnic Russians, about 24%
Considering the above, these states are unlikely to leave their mother ship of state, Russian federation.
So instead of No. 3, No. 2 scenario is more likely. But that too has certain problems:
- Turkey is an integral part of NATO since its formation
- Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally
- Afghanistan may remain a non-NATO ally, depending on future govt. after the US leaves, but it may not, many are predicting a civil war with unpredictable result
- Iran is the more serious problem here, as it is absolutely hostile to NATO, especially the current theocratic regime and the regime will probably continue for the foreseeable future
So Iran is going to be the stumbling block for scenario No. 2
Now if we consider scenario No. 1, Turkey is excluded as it is a part of NATO, while the rest can be brought within SCO umbrella. So all these states nicely fit together only in this arrangement of scenario No. 1. A potential problem is Pakistan's status as non-NATO ally of the US, but this is a special case because of the need to go into Afghanistan. Once Afghanistan is stabilized and Pakistan has potential to be less troubled by extremism and has the possibility to become more stable, then the US should have no objection to see it become a part of this new Eurasian Union.
An integrated region will be good for China, India, Turkey, GCC+ and EU, as they will now be able to trade goods, energy etc. from this vast region, without hindrance or hassles of so many borders between existing nation states.
As part of NATO, Turkey will have more synergy with NATO ally and protected GCC+ (Arab states within Asian continent)
The other important consideration for these regional union ideas is to have at least one member state with a mature industrial base. Only Russian federation at this moment fits this category, while Turkey is on its way, although still 1-2 decades away. So from this perspective also No.1 makes more sense.
These regional unions may not become permanent arrangements. Lets say in scenario No. 1, once Muslim states like Iran together with 5 stans are able to function as a mature industrial base, then the Muslim part can break off while the Christian part could join the EU, 4-5 decades later. But my guess is that 4-5 decades later, religion may not dictate geopolitics as much as it does today.
Russian Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Russian Empire (Pre-reform Russian orthography: Россійская Имперія, Modern Russian: Российская Империя, translit: Rossiyskaya Imperiya) was a state that existed from 1721 until the Russian Revolution of 1917. It was the successor to the Tsardom of Russia and the predecessor of the short-lived Russian Republic, which was succeeded by the Soviet Union. It was one of the largest empires in world history, surpassed in landmass only by the British and Mongol empires: at one point in 1866, it stretched from eastern Europe across Asia and into North America.
At the beginning of the 19th century, the Russian Empire extended from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Black Sea on the south, from the Baltic Sea on the west to the Pacific Ocean and into North America on the east. With 125.6 million subjects registered by the 1897 census, it had the third largest population of the world at the time, after Qing China and the British Empire. Like all empires, it represented a large disparity in economic, ethnic and religious positions. Its government, ruled by an Emperor, was an absolute monarchy until the Revolution of 1905. Afterwards it became a constitutional monarchy, though its Emperor continued to wield considerable power in the new political system until the final demise of the empire during the February Revolution of 1917, the result of strains brought about by its participation in World War I.
House of Romanov - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The House of Romanov (Russian: Рома́нов, IPA: [rɐˈmanəf]) was the second and last imperial dynasty to rule over Russia, reigning from 1613 until the February Revolution abolished the crown in 1917. The later history of the Imperial House is sometimes referred to informally as the House of Holstein-Gottorp-Romanov.
The Duke of Holstein-Gottorp, who was himself a member of a cadet branch of the Oldenburgs, married into the Romanov family early in the 18th century; all Romanov Tsars from the middle of that century to the revolution of 1917 were descended from that marriage. Though officially known as the House of Romanov, these descendants of the Romanov and Oldenburg Houses are sometimes referred to as Holstein-Gottorp-Romanov.[citation needed]
Dukes of Holstein-Gottorp - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It is simply not worth the trouble and it is not a critical place geopolitical wise, unlike Tibet and Xinjiang and central Asia. China will keep a close tie with Kazakhstan and Mongolia so they can provide engergy and minerals to China. In turn China's economic boom make them rich as well. Kazakhstan's per capita GDP soared from $200 to $15,000 in 20 years. It is not difficult for Mongolians to get rich as well. China's inner Mongolia rivals Turkey in terms of per capita GDP. Monglia with less population could be even richer. These two countries will play a balance between Russia or China. Mongolia may want to play US card as well.
