ORSAM :: Foreign Policy Analysis
The First Step Towards Eurasian Union Taken
Dr. İlyas Kamalov, ORSAM Eurasia Advisor
As from January 1st 2012, the Customs Union, in which the Russian Federation, Belarus and Kazakhstan take part, came into action as the Common Economic Zone. Both politicians and specialists describe the Common Economic Zone as the first step taken towards the Eurasian Union.
As is known, the Customs Union was formed in 2010, by the participation of the Russian Federation, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The Customs Union and the Common Economic Zone would open the markets of member countries to each others, decrease product prices, increase the competition upon the entrance of new products into market, and it would increase salaries upon the increase of production, easier transportation and upon the removal of customs duties. Thus, it is possible to estimate that the member countries will take great advantages in economic terms. As a matter of fact, the specialists think that this practice will have brought in 400 billion dollars to Russia, and 20 billion dollars each to Kazakhstan and Belarus by 2015. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to be members of the Customs Union within 2012.
As a matter of fact, it is possible to describe the Customs Union as the beginning of a new period for the former Soviet republics (except for the Baltic states). While the Customs Union's coming into effect completes the disintegration process within the CIS, it also points out the birth of a new union. While the formation of the CIS was the idea of the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev; we can describe the Eurasian Union as the project of Putin. Vladimir Putin has many reasons to attach importance to this project. Since his coming into power, Putin has been mentioning that the collapse of USSR is a big disaster. And with the Eurasian Union, Putin is kind of planning to revitalize the USSR, and this project will be one of the important issues of the Presidential electioneering that will be carried in March. Putin has great expectations from the Eurasian Union as well. The Russian leader states that this union will become a power, with a great influence on the international arena, in the forthcoming years.
If the plans related to the project are totally put into practice, unlike the other formations in the former Soviet geography, it is possible that the Eurasian Union could really be successful. If the Customs Union, which envisages removing customs and customs duties at inter-country level, creating common customs area, following a common foreign trade policy, and the international integration, turns into the Eurasian Union; the bodies such as Council of Heads of State, Parliament, and Council of Foreign Ministers will be created and it will adopt an EU-like structure. The parties already started to carry out works to establish a common monetary unit, and to act together in terms of military. And the organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Community and Collective Security Treaty Organization, which were established after the collapse of the USSR in the former Soviet geography, will make it easier for the member countries to be organized and integrated in political, economic, military and cultural fields within the frame of the Customs Union / Eurasian Union.
On the other hand, there are certain problems that prevent the success of Putin's project. These problems are the same with the ones, which led to the failure of the organizations that had been established in the Eurasian geography before. Although Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, who are planning to solve their economic problems with the assistance of the union, declared their willingness to be the member of the union; the other republics are following the policy of wait and see, for the time being. Even the Ukrainian and Moldavian authorities, who are in a close cooperation with Russia, believe that the integration within the frame of the Eurasian Union would give damage to their independence, and also they think that the integration process developed with the EU is more important for them. The leaders of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan also want to take advantage of the implementation within the frame of the Customs Union. However, they do not want to enter into any obligation in return. Therefore, the former Soviet states know that Vladimir Putin attaches great importance to this union, and thus, we can estimate that they will pursue the policy of if it is necessary for Putin, he pays it. A similar policy has already been followed by Belarus (within the frame of the Union State of Russia and Belarus) and other republics (within the frame of the other organizations) for years; and this situation has the potential of negatively affecting the success of the union. The issues such as; Moscow's perceiving the Eurasian Union as the Soviet Union, each country's becoming the member of the union by looking after different interests as happened in the former organizations, always comparing the organization with the Western organizations and presenting them as alternative, are the factors that could negatively affect the success of Vladimir Putin's project.
The Eurasian Union has been occupying Turkey's agenda for a long time. Especially during the periods, when there are problems with the EU, the Turkish authorities and specialists mention the Eurasian Union. On the other hand, there is no place for Turkey and other countries (China, India, etc.) in the Russian Eurasia. Moscow perceives each step of the aforesaid countries towards the Central Asia, and generally each step of the Western countries to the former Soviet geography, with jealousy; and she considers these steps as a threat against her own interests. As a matter of fact, Moscow considers even China, with whom she made cooperation in the process of eliminating the influence of the U.S. in the Central Asia, as rival; and she tries to give prominence to the organizations in Eurasia, to which China is not member. It is possible to predict that Kremlin will pursue the same policy on the Eurasian Union against China and the other countries. Russia would not want to share the opportunities she created by gathering the former Soviet states under a single roof. And this is the major reason why the specialists describe the Eurasian Union as the project of revitalizing the Soviet Union.
It is simply not worth the trouble and it is not a critical place geopolitical wise, unlike Tibet and Xinjiang and central Asia. China will keep a close tie with Kazakhstan and Mongolia so they can provide engergy and minerals to China. In turn China's economic boom make them rich as well. Kazakhstan's per capita GDP soared from $200 to $15,000 in 20 years. It is not difficult for Mongolians to get rich as well. China's inner Mongolia rivals Turkey in terms of per capita GDP. Monglia with less population could be even richer. These two countries will play a balance between Russia or China. Mongolia may want to play US card as well.
