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Geo Strategic Implications of India’s Covid Disaster.

Bossman

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Natural and man made disasters do have significant geo strategic implications. For example India exploited the misery created by the 1970 cyclone, one of the most disastrous in the world, to forment anti Pakistani sentiments which ultimately led to creation of Bangladesh. The Chernobyl disaster was a major contributor to collapse of the Soviet Union.

The purpose of this thread is to get serious and objective thoughts from other members about the possible, if any, geo strategic implications of the current Covid situation in India.

Some of my random thoughts are that the death toll going over a million and/or a break down of the food supply chain and/or significant slow down in economic activity could lead to social turmoil raising existentialist concerns about India. Some media houses are already raising such concerns but in my opinion they are very premature.

India is being seen as a counterbalance to China by the West and it is doing everything to prop it up. Full Security Council membership could be on the cards. Based on its disastrous handing of the pandemic, some G7 countries (The Indian delegation might have just infected a G7 ministerial meeting in London) might be scratching their heads about India’s readiness for such a status and its overall dependability

Last couple of years have been disastrous for Modi. The Balakot and Ladakh debacles, anti Muslim riots in Delhi, the farmer’s agitation, loss of clout in Afghanistan and a total mishandling of the pandemic. Ultimately the spin will run out. Understanding Modi’s megalomaniac mind set, he might do something to regain his standing and/or distract attention. Consequently, an aggressive move against their usual target Pakistan cannot be ruled out. The only thing stopping him would possible reaction from China.

what are your thoughts?
 
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India has been living off hype for some time now.
From incredible India to super power 2020.
It's been humiliated and embarrassed in front of anyone who cares to notice.
The reason why this is not being picked by the western MSM is because they want to use India in the hope of distracting China.
 
Natural and man made disasters do have significant geo strategic implications. For example India exploited the misery created by the 1970 cyclone, one of the most disastrous in the world, to forment anti Pakistani sentiments which ultimately led to creation of Bangladesh. The Chernobyl disaster was a major contributor to collapse of the Soviet Union.

The purpose of this thread is to get serious and objective thoughts from other members about the possible, if any, geo strategic implications of the current Covid situation in India.

Some of my random thoughts are that the death toll going over a million and/or a break down of the food supply chain and/or significant slow down in economic activity could lead to social turmoil raising existentialist concerns about India. Some media houses are already raising such concerns but in my opinion they are very premature.

India is being seen as a counterbalance to China by the West and it is doing everything to prop it up. Full Security Council membership could be on the cards. Based on its disastrous handing of the pandemic, some G7 countries (The Indian delegation might have just infected a G7 ministerial meeting in London) might be scratching their heads about India’s readiness for such a status and its overall dependability

Last couple of years have been disastrous for Modi. The Balakot and Ladakh debacles, anti Muslim riots in Delhi, the farmer’s agitation, loss of clout in Afghanistan and a total mishandling of the pandemic. Ultimately the spin will run out. Understanding Modi’s megalomaniac mind set, he might do something to regain his standing and/or distract attention. Consequently, an aggressive move against their usual target Pakistan cannot be ruled out. The only thing stopping him would possible reaction from China.

what are your thoughts?
Tend to agree with you however take into account the current social media environment. There is a large cell of Indians who are present on all major platforms defending and even banding against any dissenting voice. This is not just on Twitter and Facebook but is also prevalent on professional platform like LinkedIn.

This will slow down the rot. The fact of the matter is that the rot has been set. All dreams of social and developmental superiority they had over other Asian countries has been challenged, it is not because of Pakistan or China - it is due to their own mismanagement which hits home harder.

The stark truth is glaring them in the face and divisions are already being seen on the ground. Don't forget before the COVID saga the Farmers march was still a thing. As you have given some great examples it is right to think that the Indian Federation will collapse.

I don't think it will be soon, it will take a few decades and it will likely be bloody and disastrous for the overall region. The telling point will be the next election if BJP stays in power - India is then a goner if congress wins it could be different altogether.
 
Natural and man made disasters do have significant geo strategic implications. For example India exploited the misery created by the 1970 cyclone, one of the most disastrous in the world, to forment anti Pakistani sentiments which ultimately led to creation of Bangladesh. The Chernobyl disaster was a major contributor to collapse of the Soviet Union.

The purpose of this thread is to get serious and objective thoughts from other members about the possible, if any, geo strategic implications of the current Covid situation in India.

Some of my random thoughts are that the death toll going over a million and/or a break down of the food supply chain and/or significant slow down in economic activity could lead to social turmoil raising existentialist concerns about India. Some media houses are already raising such concerns but in my opinion they are very premature.

India is being seen as a counterbalance to China by the West and it is doing everything to prop it up. Full Security Council membership could be on the cards. Based on its disastrous handing of the pandemic, some G7 countries (The Indian delegation might have just infected a G7 ministerial meeting in London) might be scratching their heads about India’s readiness for such a status and its overall dependability

Last couple of years have been disastrous for Modi. The Balakot and Ladakh debacles, anti Muslim riots in Delhi, the farmer’s agitation, loss of clout in Afghanistan and a total mishandling of the pandemic. Ultimately the spin will run out. Understanding Modi’s megalomaniac mind set, he might do something to regain his standing and/or distract attention. Consequently, an aggressive move against their usual target Pakistan cannot be ruled out. The only thing stopping him would possible reaction from China.

what are your thoughts?

The West is now heavily invested in quad, and for that reason it would do all it can to prop-up india, as much as it can. One can see the pattern when one looks at how the West has encouraged (successfully so) in bringing Japan out of its Pacifist Policy. And how it is now arming Taiwan to the hilt. The way is aggressively courting Vietnam.

All these are indicators that the West is comprehensively invested in anti-China Policy. These indicators are a good measuring stick to project what level of support it would give india, in order to fulfill it's objectives.
 
Could be a Glasnost, Perestroika moment for Bharat....

Or in other words, a Balkanization of the unnatural construct of Bharat.

Lets keep our fingers crossed but pointing towards her.
 
Not a well thought through objective response I was expecting but this what I expect from the likes of you.

That is your problem. You want a response what you expect. Why am I needed here. You can post my response on my behalf.
 
Indians are desensitized to massive deaths and won't care when Modi sends millions of Indian young men to die in a war with China.
 
two strategic implications can be:
quad gets reduced down to trio.
hardest hit indian states will rebel against the union to create their own country due to lack of attention to their plight from the union gov.

In sha Allah both will happen soon.
 
For China, Mexico and central America will be the next frontier in geo politics. Covid accelerates Chinese investment/political influences across Americas. US full charge into SAARC covid aid relief (World bank + Covax allocated 80 million USD to Sri Lanka, and millions to Bangladesh as well) while neglecting plights of America countries like Columbia, Peru, and Brazil will drive China expansion in the region. US should really worry about rise of Latino nations facilitated perhaps by military hardware sales to America's in the next decade, maybe even in Cuba.

For India, post Covid will be interesting. India could end this non alignment facade and fully embrace US integration and allow US bases. No sure US will allow its economy to be hijacked by Indians though. Interesting times.
 
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Pakistanis on this thread unable to differentiate reality from their own wants. A pandemic can obviously slow India down for a few years but it can't kill the reasons why India has pushed ahead in recent times.

Let me ask a more valid question. Why do Pakistanis think India will -"Spiral into a hell hole?" . Let's talk beyond lollywood dialogues and scripts. Let's talk economic parameters, market and trade.
 
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