Gen-next of immigrants in US return home ; India, China to gain from revers

[Shardul.....the lion]

Asian century is over rated my man..... It is very much China's time to rise, and US will remain stable or grow somewhat...

India so far has just been an overhyped marketing campaign by people wanting to pitch it against China's rise.

As much as I would love to see India excel, truth is it is nowhere near China/Taiwan/Korea he'll even Singapore, Philippines and Iran in terms of domestic capability for hi-tech industries. All it is, is a land of over a billion people and it's just this number that is making it grow on minimal effort. We need to put in a lot more effort and much faster if we want to even think of catching up with rest of Asia.

The only real hope I have is from DMIC, rest is just nothing impressive.

We are talking about brain drain revesing.

Indians would love to comeback to their own country if situation is better than last 10 years.
I have seen many examples in last 2-3 yrs people have came back from US and are having higher positions in Indian industries.

My several friends doing postdoc in US keep irritating me asking to find a job for them. But in durin 1990s and 2000s postdoc was considered better option than job in India. Now the situation is reversing.

And yes, I know we are behind China in most of aspects.

 

[Hello_10]

We are talking about brain drain revesing.

Indians would love to comeback to their own country if situation is better than last 10 years.
I have seen many examples in last 2-3 yrs people have came back from US and are having higher positions in Indian industries.

My several friends doing postdoc in US keep irritating me asking to find a job for them. But in durin 1990s and 2000s postdoc was considered better option than job in India. Now the situation is reversing.

And yes, I know we are behind China in most of aspects.

sir, there is no future of US’s/ Western industries. Even if you work on 150k+ job in US/ Australia, you know your company won’t grow like how an Indian or Chinese company may grow in future. Even if you may get 20lacs per annum in India on the basis of the overseas degree and work experience you gained in US/ Australia, you would back to India as the job you will get with those Indian companies who will grow in future, providing better carrer opportunities

We have experience that no matter how much you say about superior quality of an equipment made in Australia/ West, more efficient/ less maintenance required etc, but just 15% price difference in enough to lose business to a Chinese supplier. Western companies are waiting for their death, there is just no future of Western companies, while the Indian companies have their own internal demand? Like, in Australia almost every one has TV/ fridge/ mobile/ car etc we import from China. but in India which is making its own over 20mil middle class every year who are demanding more? Being in a ‘saturated’ economy, the current developed countries, is justified only to the extend you may get quality experience, along with your overseas degree, which may help you get a good job in India and then you would simply back to India

 

[raavan]

People who have the skills and drive to be entrepreneurs will do it in the US itself, given the 15 trillion dollar market. The ones who run off half a world away are the ones who can't make it in the super-competitive US environment.

Exactly US markets are already saturated...whereas Indian markets are growing at 8% which offers more opportunity

 

[Hello_10]

Asian century is over rated my man..... It is very much China's time to rise, and US will remain stable or grow somewhat...

India so far has just been an overhyped marketing campaign by people wanting to pitch it against China's rise.

As much as I would love to see India excel, truth is it is nowhere near China/Taiwan/Korea he'll even Singapore, Philippines and Iran in terms of domestic capability for hi-tech industries All it is, is a land of over a billion people and it's just this number that is making it grow on minimal effort. We need to put in a lot more effort and much faster if we want to even think of catching up with rest of Asia.

The only real hope I have is from DMIC, rest is just nothing impressive.

first, we know Indian industries are now as much advanced that now India is categorized among the NICs, isn't it?

Newly industrialized country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And with 200mil upper middle class and 300mil lower middle class, India does have a big market of 500mil middle class? Here, as you said, we know Philippines is a remittances based economy. Philippines with 100mil population receives $20+ remittances while India and China with 1200mil and 1300mil population receive hardly $50bil remittances due to their "highly qualified migrants". While per capita income of its neighbors like Thailand is 2.5 times and of Malaysia its 4 times to Philippines? Even if per capita income of India is almost equal to that of Philippines, 80% of Indian GDP is because of its 350mil middle class whose per capita income on PPP is at par with the 'very high HDI' countries like Argentina, Poland, Malaysia? Remember, even if World Bank has changed its way of measuring GDP on PPP, the ‘undocumented part’ of Indian GDP was estimated at around 63% higher than that of accurate information of the ‘new way’ of measuring GDP on PPP.

There are, however, practical difficulties in deriving GDP at PPP, and we now have two different estimates of the PPP conversion factor for 2005. India's GDP at PPP is estimated at $ 5.16 trillion or $ 3.19 trillion depending on whether the old or new conversion factor is used," it said.

It's official: India's a trillion-$ economy - Times Of India

And this way, if GDP on PPP of India was around $4.5tn in 2011 then even if we consider a margin of 60% to include the ‘undocumented part’ similar to the method we had till 2005, GDP on PPP of India comes around $7.3tn by 2011 and if share of Indian middle class is around 80% to whole Indian GDP then it makes $5.8tn as their total share in GDP with per capita income on PPP at around $16,500 making 350mil Indian middle class in the category of “very high HDI” countries like Argentina, Poland, Malaysia etc. And even if it leaves around $1.7tn for rest of around 800mil ‘non-middle class’ and poor people of India, then still per capita income of this 800mil Indian poor comes at around $2,100 which is higher than that of many other countries like Bangladesh, Nepal etc. and this 350mil middle class of India with ‘very high HDI’ is more than even the total population of India at the time of freedom in 1947? Then how will you say that a country like Philippines which is heavily dependent on remittances from West, full tech support they got from West, is more successful than India? India has over 55 billionaire, does Philippines has? Does any of the city of ASEAN is as expansive as Delhi/ Mumbai, excluding singapore?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Mumbai, which was the world’s second most expensive 'office' market during the last survey in November 2007, is now in fourth place, though its rental of $210.97 per sq ft is still 41 percent higher than it was last November.

Moscow, where office rentals have risen 93 percent since last November to $232.37 per sq ft, is now at second place instead. Delhi is now in seventh place, from eighth last November.

Office rents in Mumbai~ Delhi still among 10 most expensive | India

World's Most Expensive 'Residential' Real Estate Markets 2009

Battling for the number 2 position are prime central Moscow and London. Prime central Moscow's US$20,853 per square metre price tag slightly outpaces core Prime London's US$20,756 per square metre, though it is fairer to say the two cities are neck-and-neck.

Completing the top ten most expensive real estate markets are two European cities (Paris at 7th and Rome at 9th) and two other Asian cities (Singapore at 8th and Mumbai at 10th). Average prices range from US$9,000 per sq. m. to US$12,000 per sq. m.

Most expensive real estate markets in 2009

I just made a post with a warning that path of a country like Philippines will take Pakistan towards destructions, as below. Please answer the reasons behind the logic I explained

http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...pable-overtaking-uk-france-6.html#post2833510


I made a post regarding why can’t India catch up with China as below, please have a look on it and respond, as below. I would welcome as many arguments you may make to prove that Philippines has any technology which is superior to India, even if Philippines got enough support from West due to its Christian religious background

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...sh-manufacturing-labour-compete-chinas-8.html

1. The most valuable technology of the world is space research and we find China has done its manned mission by 2006 then India has also planned it by 2015. And till now, India is among those few nations who may launch even a group of satellites at one time and it has done it’s unmanned moon mission, Chandrayaan-1, also by 2009 which made it among the 5 nations who have done so. (US, EU, China, Russia and 5th its India now.)

Although the mission was less than 10 months in duration, and less than half the intended 2 years in length,[82][84][7] a review by scientists termed the mission successful, as it had completed 95% of its primary objectives, consisting of:
To construct the complex spacecraft with 11 scientific instruments.
To place the spacecraft in a circular orbit around the Moon by orbit raising manoeuvres from a near Earth orbit.
To place the Flag of India on the Moon.
To carry out imaging operations and to collect data on the mineral content of the lunar soil.
To set up a deep space tracking network and implement the operational procedures for travel into deep space. [86][87]

The data collected from the mission have been disseminated to Indian scientists and also the partners from Europe and U.S.A. for analysis.[63][64][65][7]

Chandrayaan-1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2. Second, if we go to the street then we find the most important manufactured product in the market is Cars. And here, we know that Chinese car companies are now doing pretty good in world but where India stand? have a look on the website of Tata Motors as below and see what type of cars they make in India. Second is Mahindra in India and you would check their models also.

Tata Motors : Home

New Mahindra Scorpio Pictures . See Interior & Exterior Mahindra Scorpio Photos | CarDekho.com

3. Lets see the nuclear power areas, (the so called main strength of any country and Iran still couldn’t get any nuclear reactor from any super power), then here, will luck help India with Kazakhstan to sell their first ever nuclear reactor which is in competition with Russia

If India manages to convince Kazakhstan about the efficacy of its reactors over Russian ones, this would be the first-ever export of indigenously designed and manufactured reactors, official sources said.

The Hindu : News / National : Renewed efforts to sell nuclear reactors to Kazakhstan

4. And as its defence forum, India has now made its first nuclear submarine by itself, Arihant, and is among the 6 nation in world. India is involved for 5th gen aircraft project PAK FA with Russia from design, production to operation with having LCA program. India is making its own tanks, missiles, making first indigenous aircraft career IOC-1 etc with many other defence projects.

5. Now what, yes in software then we know that Indian companies like TCS, Infosys, etc have performed excellent in world. We hope China would do little better in this field. Iran always complain that Russia delay expansion of oil gas field of Iran while Indian companies like IOCL/ ONGC/ Reliance have pretty good experience of developing oil/ gas field with making gas pipelines also?

What else? India is also making big buildings, express way roads, top class shopping complexes?

 

[kak1978]

Most people who start a company want to make money today or next year, not 50 years from now when India (maybe) overtakes American GDP.

Looks like you are either totally unaware or in denial of whats going on in developing countries like India and China. Let me give you an example FlipKart.com started in 2007 with US $8,000 today it has a revenue of US$100 million. Aiming at US$ 1Billion by 2015. All they did is replicate what Amazon has done some 10 years back, but in a growing market like India. There are numerous other examples of such startups in China and India.

more info on wiki Flipkart - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Black Widow]

One day I said, attacks on the Indian origins in US/ UK/ Australia and in other western countries started since 2008, it was the time when Indian professionals started coming back to India. And I made a point, “No US’s green card or permanent visa of Australia/ UK/ Canada is offered for charity. Being falling under certain ‘skill categories’, mainly to those after a Master of Engineering level degree from these countries itself, then they are offered these key visas which are intended to keep these highly qualified people within US. It was a strategy of US till 90s to keep masters level engineering qualified people within US by offering green card, if someone have got a master of engineering type degree from a US’s universities and have studied what is taught in a t echnological institute of US. And if these highly qualified people start having 7-8 years of experience and go back to their home countries then what technologies the US will be left with?”

technologies are meant by those professionals who work for high tech companies. Every tech has to be improved by passage of time and it’s the top class professionals who get this done. as how under high school pass people of US/ UK/ Australia/ Canada type countries will develop technologies? And those who made technologies for US’s firms, after studying a master level degree from a US’s institute itself, and if these professionals go back to their home countries after 7 to 10 years of experience in their field while working in US/ West, they may do the same for their home companies also.

I had made a clear statement that ‘Hate Crimes’ started against the Indian professionals in West during 2009/ 10 was because of the new trend of reverse flow of brains from US/ West to India. US/ West won’t feel that bad if a professional migrate there as compare to the case when a highly qualified professional may then back to their home country after 7-8 years of ‘fit’ experience from US, with a master level engineering degree from US's institute also. What I mean to say, if all the professionals of US suddenly back to India then they will have made Indian companies exactly same as US’s firms they work for. Almost 100% professionals/ technical experts working for the US’s top firms like MicroSoft are migrants and among those who are ranked highest are mainly Indian origins. They are the ‘creamy layer’ of their society who work for US/ Western firms. And if they all will back to their home countries, US will then be dragged into a type of recession which will level them with the country like Congo/ Afghan, big land but low population, without any credibility or proper education background. Countries like US/ UK/ Canada/ Australia are made by under high school pass people only and their credibility is because of highly qualified migrants only and if they back to their home countries, these Western countries will have lost their credibilities

only half you said is true. first of all not all indian will come back. second even if many come back USA WILL not become cango, they are full with resource. thirdly recession is a part of capitalism so it has nothing to do with brain drain.


indo-us relation is base on mutual gain.

 

[Punjabbi Munda]

__________________

 

[Hello_10]

only half you said is true. first of all not all indian will come back. second even if many come back USA WILL not become cango, they are full with resource. thirdly recession is a part of capitalism so it has nothing to do with brain drain.


indo-us relation is base on mutual gain.

I dont know how old you but few things we learn from experience only. One day I was asked, at around 2007, what will be the market size of BSE by 2010 and I simply calculated 8% growth and 10% inflation with 5% to 10% value added factors and said, it would be somewhere at around 30,000 from the level of 18,000 in 2007. While even if India registered close to 8% average growth rate per year since 2007, including the recession period of 2009, our BSE sensex is maintained at 17,500 right now. One day we had a management class, (I was doing part time MBA in project management in Sydney), and our lecturer said the ‘spot value’ of currency is its true price, and I fully supported him. As, even if the currency value keep going up and down every day, its true value is its current value

Few things we learn from experience only. Its kids who say that ‘straight line’ concept work on the real case scenario. Things keep going up and down in an ‘unpredictable’ way. I have seen per capita income of Russia on PPP around two times to Poland,/Mexico, 12 times to China and just 30% less than Britain in 1990 and in front of mine, Russia reached the level by late 90s that Indian doctors started running from Russia. And since then, we find Mr Putin controlling Russia and Russia finally recovered its per capita income level of 1990 by 2007. yes high metal/ energy price also helped it. I have read fall and success of Russia in an every month way since 1990. in the same way I remember how export level of China increased from $300bil in early 2000s to $1.9tn last year, making the superiority of OECD to their foot. Where the world stood in 2000 and where we are right now? I can see broadway shopping centre of Sydney and other things there almost exactly as it was in 2002 while in India, things are dramatically different after 10 years. Only thing changed in life style of Sydney is, we had big mobile with camera in 2003 while now its smaller size. I bought a Sony Laptop in 2003 when I was an international student which was ‘made in japan’ while now almost every laptop in sydney is ‘made in china’. We had high fuel consuming ‘toyota camery’ car that time, second hand I bought, while now people in Australia want only less fuel consuming cars there. there is nothing much changed there while in India, new shopping centres/ high speed roads/ 24 hours power supply in most of the cities, things got very changed now in India.

And with my experience, I can say that things will change with little more dramatical way by next 5-6 years. Russia did have oil/ gas/ metals to support its economy during fall it faced in 90s but what the US/ EU have, if they will lose business of high tech products to Chinese companies which are now available for less cost, while 15% price difference is enough to lose business to the competitors? “if you want to import oil/ food products/ cloths etc then you would be able to export that much also. if you want to maintain 1US$= 6.0 Yuan then you would export as much that it may keep your currency at this level on the back of high volume of export of high tech products/ services.” Losing highly qualified professionals to India/ China, this trend of ‘reverse brain drain’ along with losing export business of high tech products to China, will help US/ EU get their industrial jobs back from China, which will occur only in the case when the labor cost of China may become expansive than that of US/ EU. And I have predicted, from Asia, the industrial jobs will first go to US/ West then to Africa. Write down somewhere.

I have seen world changing during last 20 years and hopefully I will participate in economics related talks by next 10 years also. we will discuss industrial jobs moving from China to US on PDF within 5 to 10 years from now, just be with me. US/ UK/ EU are struggling to change their ‘destiny’, a change which is ‘inevitable’ and how will they avoid it, it will be interesting to see, if they can.

 

[scrumpy]

It is quiet simple really. There are a lot of new offices opening up in India which required new talent. Career growth is much faster in India than in the UK at the moment. The salaries are not bad either keeping in mind that the cost of living is much lower.

This reverse brain drain would have bee much higher if India allowed dual citizenship.

 

[protest]

Most people who start a company want to make money today or next year, not 50 years from now when India (maybe) overtakes American GDP.



Ford is already established worldwide. We are talking about start-ups.



Absolutely. The article talks about US citizens.

Okay, let me break your bubble. Its been close to 9 months since I moved back to India. I have started my own firm two months after that. Remember this is a local business not dealing with exports. In so far, I have made deals worth a million dollars here. Now I would have probably made 100-120k in US but no where near this. Obviously, you really don't know how it is to be in a fast developing country. Your disdain for Indian growth is really seeping through. 'Take care' would my final word for you.

Looks like you are either totally unaware or in denial of whats going on in developing countries like India and China. Let me give you an example FlipKart.com started in 2007 with US $8,000 today it has a revenue of US$100 million. Aiming at US$ 1Billion by 2015. All they did is replicate what Amazon has done some 10 years back, but in a growing market like India. There are numerous other examples of such startups in China and India.

more info on wiki Flipkart - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And its already valued at $1 billion dollars in 4 years with some VC fund buying 15% of share for $150 million dollars. And this is just one e-commerce site. Imagine the potential.

 

[Hello_10]

Okay, let me break your bubble. Its been close to 9 months since I moved back to India. I have started my own firm two months after that. Remember this is a local business not dealing with exports. In so far, I have made deals worth a million dollars here. Now I would have probably made 100-120k in US but no where near this. Obviously, you really don't know how it is to be in a fast developing country. Your disdain for Indian growth is really seeping through. 'Take care' would my final word for you.


And its already valued at $1 billion dollars in 4 years with some VC fund buying 15% of share for $150 million dollars. And this is just one e-commerce site. Imagine the potential.

Sir, It used to be the time in early 90s when I was very keen to know the reasons behind liberalization of Indian economy which has resulted us paying for ‘Thums Up’ to a foreign company. I was deeply hurt by a truth that we were then drinking the same Thums Up, same Indian water, but paying the price/ benefits to a foreign company. And then I read too many articles regarding liberalization of ASEAN and China which took place in 70s and helped the country like Thailand get on average 9% per year growth rate during 70s, 80s and till 1997, which is a similar type of economy like China and India. Even Indonesia and Malaysia used to get revenue through oil export during 90s but not Thailand/ China who were the similar type of economy like India. And it was argued that when we do business then we will lose somewhere then we will gain on the other side at the same time. No business was ever done to benefit other side and no foreign companies would come to India to benefit India. and then Indian economy got a pace from mid 90s. we did nothing which ASEAN, Korea and China had not tried by even 70s and we liberalized the economy in the same way as rest of the world. And the credit goes to the Indian businessmen/ Indian professionals who performed excellent and helped India get on average 7% growth rate since early 90s. over decades of 70s and 80s we spent to learn from the experience of liberalization of economy by ASEAN+China+Korea and then India tried the same since 1990


But whatever I said in my posts as above, (in posts '16' '18' '20' '24'), me and Mr Manmohan Singh both know, including many other economists. but the only difference between me and him is, Mr Manmohan Singh is the man who wants to help his Western lords to avoid the worse of economic crises they may face, while Im ‘not interested’

 

[Developereo]

sir, ROI in the emerging markets like India, China, ASEAN is much higher than developed countries

Plenty of start-ups in the US are doing just fine. Conversely, India produces relatively few successful high-tech start-ups. It's all about concept and execution. Good concept/execution will make you millions anywhere; the reverse will fail in any economy, regardless of GDP growth.

Okay, let me break your bubble. Its been close to 9 months since I moved back to India. I have started my own firm two months after that. Remember this is a local business not dealing with exports. In so far, I have made deals worth a million dollars here. Now I would have probably made 100-120k in US but no where near this.

And you couldn't have started this company in the US and made similar profits? Why not?

And its already valued at $1 billion dollars in 4 years with some VC fund buying 15% of share for $150 million dollars. And this is just one e-commerce site. Imagine the potential.

Flipkart was started by local Indians, so is not relevant here. In any case, I am sure Bank of Zimbabwe is also doing well. The Karachi stock exchange posts impressive gains. Companies around the world are making profits. That is not the debate here.

we did nothing which ASEAN, Korea and China had not tried by even 70s and we liberalized the economy in the same way as rest of the world.

Glad to see you finally admit you are Indian.

 

[protest]

Plenty of start-ups in the US are doing just fine. Conversely, India produces relatively few successful high-tech start-ups. It's all about concept and execution. Good concept/execution will make you millions anywhere; the reverse will fail in any economy, regardless of GDP growth.



And you couldn't have started this company in the US and made similar profits? Why not?



Flipkart was started by local Indians, so is not relevant here. In any case, I am sure Bank of Zimbabwe is also doing well. The Karachi stock exchange posts impressive gains. Companies around the world are making profits. That is not the debate here.



Glad to see you finally admit you are Indian.

Nobody can do anything about a dogmatic person. Good Luck.

 

[Developereo]

Nobody can do anything about a dogmatic person. Good Luck.

So, no answer to the question why you couldn't have opened the start-up in the US itself?

 

[Hello_10]

Asian century is over rated my man..... It is very much China's time to rise, and US will remain stable or grow somewhat...

India so far has just been an overhyped marketing campaign by people wanting to pitch it against China's rise.

As much as I would love to see India excel, truth is it is nowhere near China/Taiwan/Korea he'll even Singapore, Philippines and Iran in terms of domestic capability for hi-tech industries. All it is, is a land of over a billion people and it's just this number that is making it grow on minimal effort. We need to put in a lot more effort and much faster if we want to even think of catching up with rest of Asia.

The only real hope I have is from DMIC, rest is just nothing impressive.

economic state of India is still not as bad as compare to so called ‘rich’ nations like US and many EU’s countries whose debt to GDP ratio has already crossed 100% mark. There is no sign that these ‘rich’ economies will register any high growth similar to developing countries but they are only borrowing more and more to maintain ‘richness’. I recently said, “if US might not have borrowed debt in 2011 then it might have faced recession, true. But after borrowing more, US’s debt to GDP ratio has now gone to over 100%. From here, if the US will have reached a debt to GDP ratio of 200%, say by 2015/16, and if they will then prefer not to borrow anymore and face recession, then it will be the worse they will face than what might have happened to them in 2011.” “there is a limit to borrow and bear expanses. US and ‘PIIGGS’ economies of EU are not borrowing debt but borrowing a ‘Time’, ‘a time’ they are set to face within just 5 to 6 years from now, which they are avoiding for few more years with a hope of any miracle which may change their ‘destiny’, (an ‘inevitable’ change in world), which they will face within 5 to 6 years. At the same time companies of US/ West are losing their Compatative Advantage due to high labor cost as compare to Chinese products, which may help the western nations earn through export of high tech products to help maintain high value of $ than Yuan. And losing trade business to China, as expected, will mean it . We will see many things happening within next 5-6 years