GDP growth rate of over 5.5pc to hurt economy: Shaukat Tarin

[ziaulislam]

Probably the idiot known as Farukh Saleem

He is not an idiot
He is a genious
The poor stupid things he put out the greater following he gets

So he is stupid?

The term I used was to cover the imports. Notice cover and not equal-to-imports.

Pakistan needs to cover only equivalent to current account deficit per month. A country with much lower percentage of foreign remittances or exports would need higher foreign reserve to cover the imports.

If difference between USD inflows & outflows continue at current rate of $2 billion per month, then current reserves can cover about 11 months of imports.

The world doesnt look at this way

They look at this way

You need pay for import bill even if due to extwrnal shocks or internal shocks u cant generate inflows(like massive earth quake financial crisis covid etx)

A 4-6 months would mean reserves worth of 30b are needed

But these have to be reseverves ans should not be depleting

In a sinking ship the ones that are sucessful are those who csn get out before the sink has any signs of compromise not when wveryone knows it sinking; this is how stock market and economy works

Money is pouring in india bengaldesh because people are prediciting stability and rational economy despite their covid errors, not in pakistan... because people are prediciting patwarisim in 2023 and jaylaism /bhuttoism in 2028 both have been tried and tested for their ponzi schemes last 50 years srarting from bhutto nationalism

See the difference

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

He is not an idiot
He is a genious
The poor stupid things he put out the greater following he gets

So he is stupid?

The world doesnt look at this way

They look at this way

You need pay for import bill even if due to extwrnal shocks or internal shocks u cant generate inflows(like massive earth quake financial crisis covid etx)

A 4-6 months would mean reserves worth of 30b are needed

But these have to be reseverves ans should not be depleting

In a sinking ship the ones that are sucessful are those who csn get out before the sink has any signs of compromise not when wveryone knows it sinking; this is how stock market and economy works

Money is pouring in india bengaldesh because people are prediciting stability and rational economy despite their covid errors, not in pakistan... because people are prediciting patwarisim in 2023 and jaylaism /bhuttoism in 2028 both have been tried and tested for their ponzi schemes last 50 years srarting from bhutto nationalism

See the difference

Pakistan is going to lose GSP plus status in 2023. That will be another shock which only current govt could have prevented by implementing HR conventions relating to minorities. Which PTI have failed to do. Blaming past govts after certain point doesnt make sense.

Either we want strong Pakistan economy or deals with TTP, TLP types etc

 

[Patriot forever]

The term I used was to cover the imports. Notice cover and not equal-to-imports.

Pakistan needs to cover only equivalent to current account deficit per month. A country with much lower percentage of foreign remittances or exports would need higher foreign reserve to cover the imports.

If difference between USD inflows & outflows continue at current rate of $2 billion per month, then current reserves can cover about 11 months of imports. Back when foreign exchange reserves were at $7 billion in 2018, economists on TV were saying that it can cover only 3 months worth of imports, when imports were like $5.5 billion per month.

Bro term 'import cover' is equal to value of imports.

But I do get your point. We can take care of the part you mentioned ( we also have free currency so the burden is not fully on reserves aswell) , but the reason we are at the IMF and also similar arrangements with other countries is to be able to roll over our maturing debt and interest payment ( not just cash inflows to cover it but also at cheaper rates).

 

[Vapnope]

Well

Can you share the policy change that would increase our services sector contribution to GDP?
From the article,
//During Covid, global buyers turned towards Pakistan. As a result, Pakistani exporters received the opportunity to quote competitive prices and offer better quality products.//

Also i can tell you that reduction in duty of raw materials for pharma is a lie. You can check the API prices and duty structure.

The economic woes continue to hurt us in near future because the much needed reforms are still not there.

 

[Patriot forever]

Can you share the policy change that would increase our services sector contribution to GDP?
From the article,
//During Covid, global buyers turned towards Pakistan. As a result, Pakistani exporters received the opportunity to quote competitive prices and offer better quality products.//

Also i can tell you that reduction in duty of raw materials for pharma is a lie. You can check the API prices and duty structure.

The economic woes continue to hurt us in near future because the much needed reforms are still not there.

Bro our services sector contribution to GDP is already high. ( Due to other sectors having disproportionately lower contribution)

With the growth in manufacturing the growth is automatically translated to retail sector. What we need to do is improve our manufacturing sector and make services sector less reliant on direct imports. (retail)

Other components of service sector are doing fine Telecommunication, Banking, Healthcare etc ( basically service sector in general is more reliant on consumption)

We don't own any patented technologies so it is useless to discuss this part ( limited to much more developed economies)

IT is doing very well, basically we have doubled our IT exports which barely grew previously.

We never had a shipping industry ( internationally shipping is very much in demand, a container that costed $2.5k now costs $9k after covid).

API import structure was bound to be revised, dont know if it was included in tariff lines that were given relaxation. I think Pakistan pharma industry can manufacture generic API, and this has more to do with protecting companies that do manufacture them like citipharma ( recently they also held a very successful IPO and are going to expand considerably 3X their current production).

 

[ziaulislam]

Pakistan is going to lose GSP plus status in 2023. That will be another shock which only current govt could have prevented by implementing HR conventions relating to minorities. Which PTI have failed to do. Blaming past govts after certain point doesnt make sense.

Either we want strong Pakistan economy or deals with TTP, TLP types etc

Vietnam and china doesnt has GSP status

Bro term 'import cover' is equal to value of imports.
View attachment 791179

But I do get your point. We can take care of the part you mentioned ( we also have free currency so the burden is not fully on reserves aswell) , but the reason we are at the IMF and also similar arrangements with other countries is to be able to roll over our maturing debt and interest payment ( not just cash inflows to cover it but also at cheaper rates).

He ia going to come with some philosphical answer which will make you speechless or he will quote hamilton or newton

And then will call you an idiot for not putting a space or fullstop somewhere.

 

[Vapnope]

Vietnam and china doesnt has GSP status

He ia going to come with some philosphical answer which will make you speechless or he will quote hamilton or newton

And then will call you an idiot for not putting a space or fullstop somewhere.

I hope you are aware of this,

• GSP Plus would allow Pakistani exports to enter the 28 member countries of EU. 
• Market of 500 million consumers is now open for Pakistani exports.  Cotton and Textile products are the largest exporting sectors of Pakistan. 
• Pakistan has edge over its Competitors (China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia). They do not have duty free access as well as no preferential access.

Our exports will falls exponentially if GSP+ is revoked.

 

[Vapnope]

What we need to do is improve our manufacturing sector and make services sector less reliant on direct imports. (retail)

This is what i am trying to say here and you have perfectly captured it here. GoP assistance is required to manufacture raw material or semi finished materials inside Pakistan. You will be surprised to know that we import ketchup base from China to be used in Knorr. API manufacture is still at nascent stage ( I think sami pharma is working on it).

 

[ziaulislam]

I hope you are aware of this,

• GSP Plus would allow Pakistani exports to enter the 28 member countries of EU. 
• Market of 500 million consumers is now open for Pakistani exports.  Cotton and Textile products are the largest exporting sectors of Pakistan. 
• Pakistan has edge over its Competitors (China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia). They do not have duty free access as well as no preferential access.

Our exports will falls exponentially if GSP+ is revoked.

If you are dependent upon GSP+ status then whats the point?

If you want become comeptitive do it without hidong behind GSP+ or other tarrif advantages
China vietnam have higher textile exports then pakistan

 

[Vapnope]

If you are dependent upon GSP+ status then whats the point?

If you want become comeptitive do it without hidong behind GSP+ or other tarrif advantages
China vietnam have higher textile exports then pakistan

You are absolutely right about it but this brings us back to the question that who is going to do it? I have not seen a structured change in policy so that we can get better other than GSP+.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Vietnam and china doesnt has GSP status

Your point being? See PTI will let slip status to please mullahs but keep blaming what happened 20 years ago. Govt is supposed to fix things, not live in the past. GSP plus is needed, Pakistan isn't going to become China in few years.

 

[ziaulislam]

Your point being? See PTI will let slip status to please mullahs but keep blaming what happened 20 years ago. Govt is supposed to fix things, not live in the past. GSP plus is needed, Pakistan isn't going to become China in few years.

My point is simple exports decreased during gsp+ status..

Whats important is inteenal stability peace rather then + status

If confronting mullahs is going to create problems better losing gsp+ status

Did you see how many people showed up at minar pakistan for this mullah funeral??

He is not famous elsewhere but he is the main mullah in pakistan educated heart/center i.e lahore

You cant run a country with agitated Lahore

 

[Patriot forever]

This is what i am trying to say here and you have perfectly captured it here. GoP assistance is required to manufacture raw material or semi finished materials inside Pakistan. You will be surprised to know that we import ketchup base from China to be used in Knorr. API manufacture is still at nascent stage ( I think sami pharma is working on it).

Government has done a lot given the constraints they are operating under.
Concessionary financed TERF (I know 70% of it is textile) , LTFF facility for machinery imports. Low interest rate in general on top of it. Revamped DRAP pricing structure to make pharmaceutical industry more profitable ( can raise capital and expand). Banned imports of medicine from India (except life saving drugs).

 

[Patriot forever]

I hope you are aware of this,

• GSP Plus would allow Pakistani exports to enter the 28 member countries of EU. 
• Market of 500 million consumers is now open for Pakistani exports.  Cotton and Textile products are the largest exporting sectors of Pakistan. 
• Pakistan has edge over its Competitors (China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia). They do not have duty free access as well as no preferential access.

Our exports will falls exponentially if GSP+ is revoked.

I understand. But to let LGBT and libtards free reign is not acceptable to us.

Society will revolt.

What they want is to give free hand to sponsered NGO. Anti-religious groups.

Want protection for people like Hamid Mir. Baloch Insurgency apologists etc. PTM type organizations.

They have wreaked havoc in our society.

You seem in the same dilemma that Pakistan was when it joined US war on terror.

Do not sell yourself for candies, the cost paid will be greater than whatever candy they give you.

(It is coming from someone who fully understands the implications )

The aim is to target religion, state and its security forces.

 

[POPEYE-Sailor]

Yes. PTI always talk with facts and facts require financial and economic graphs to prove the point, something Patwaris could never understand since they vote with stomach instead of brain View attachment 791092View attachment 791093

In two weeks time crushing season starts and then sugar price will fall back to normal. Then you will have so much sugar that you will export it and blame Imran Khan for it

Youthia xD