GDP growth rate of over 5.5pc to hurt economy: Shaukat Tarin

[Patriot forever]

This is probably the most important revelation about the state of Pakistani economy that I have read in past 12 months. So it appears that we cannot even tolerate the increased GDP expansion because even current all-time-high foreign reserves are not enough to absorb the burden of imports when economy is growing faster than 5.5%.

I have heard many economic experts & state official stating on record that Pakistan only need foreign reserves to cover the imports for 6 months.

After what happened with the spike in crude oil prices in 2008 and recent spike in economic growth proves that Pakistan needs foreign reserves at least amounting to 1/3 the size of her GDP. The outdated economic theory of Zia time of maintaining of foreign reserves to cover only 6 months worth of imports is just not good enough.

6 months of reserves is a very healthy indicator. Wish we had that kind of reserves.

The idea of sustainable growth is we don't have to come to the point of using considerable reserves to sustain growth, otherwise no matter how much reserves we have we will run out of it sooner or later. That's what the 5.5% is indicating. ( In these circumstances with this level of international commodity inflation I would rather say 4 to 4.5, but this is temporary). In the medium term yes with our current export and remittances projections he is right. In the long term if we keep on this path we can grow further. ( Before we reach the plateau where we would need massive input to achieve minimum growth but we are a couple of decades away from that point where developed countries are where the focus is transferred to cutting edge innovation and sophistication).

 

[Aneeq Rashid]

Increasing exports and while reducing imports is the only way. The mindset should be changed to we consume what we produce.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Charter of economy is needed

3 administrations have tried 3 different economic polices - meant no stable economic policy

 

[Patriot forever]

Charter of economy is needed

3 administrations have tried 3 different economic polices - meant no stable economic policy

Nope just need to focus on increasing ability to earn dollars ( exports + remittances + right kind of FDI)

 

[Maula Jatt]

Nope just need to focus on increasing ability to earn dollars ( exports + remittances + right kind of FDI)

I don't know but I have seen a poster saying
Ppp tried Britain style economic policy/growth
Pmln tried import based growth
And now PTI is trying export based

The day PTI gets out of office PMLn would come up with it's own plan of import led growth or PPP with it's Britain style policies

This'll be a cluster f*** where no party would achieve anything for the country

We need to make sure there's some sort of political concencous on keeping the same economic policies/outlook/approach to being stability in economic policies

Need to become a statesman and figure this thing out

 

[Patriot forever]

I don't know but I have seen a poster saying
Ppp tried Britain style economic policy/growth
Pmln tried import based growth
And now PTI is trying export based

The day PTI gets out of office PMLn would come up with it's own plan of import led growth or PPP with it's Britain style policies

This'll be a cluster f*** where no party would achieve anything for the country

We need to make sure there's some sort of political concencous on keeping the same economic policies/outlook/approach to being stability in economic policies

Need to become a statesman and figure this thing out

The only way to achieve this is to get rid of this political system. Anything achieved will be only words.

I have a list of things that need to be done but I am not expecting it to happen.

Some big ones.

1) Normalised rate for local and imported RLNG and a market based model reforms in this sector.
2) Pension which is an impending crisis.
3) Loss making SOE shut down and privitized by force without courts interference.

Etc etc...

These are just some on the economic side.

 

[AZMwi]

گندم کھانے سے آدم جنت سے نکالے گئے۔۔ پیٹرول سے پولوشن پھیلتی ہے۔۔۔ چینی شوگر کا باعث ہے۔۔ دوائیاں گردے ختم کر دیتی ہیں سونا مرد کیلیے حرام ہے۔۔ ڈالر یہودی کرنسی ھے۔۔۔ چاول کھا کھا کربنگالی غدار ھوگئے۔۔۔لہذا تم گھاس کھایا کرو اور میرے گیت گایا کرو
آپ کا اپنا شغلِ اعظم نیازی
‏‎‎بقول کپتان جب 2018 تک وہ دو خاندان پاکستان کا پیسہ باہر بھیج چکےتھے تو۔
چینی 50 روپےکلو تھی، پٹرول 78 روپے لٹر اور ڈالر 106 روپے کا تھا۔۔
اب 3 سال سے وہ دو خاندان حکومت میں نہیں ہیں۔
پھر چینی 150 روپے کلو، پٹرول 146 روپے لٹر اور ڈالر 176 روپےکا کیسے ہوگیا ۔

 

[ziaulislam]

So you went for bankrupting the economy? Was that your solution to all that?View attachment 790759

Govt first panicked and did nothing for 3 years
Then 2015 ..oh shit we font have time..okay lets build LNG plants on govt money

Ironically the draft prepared in 2011 was great one build 7000mw coal based coastal project with competitive bidding
But this required govt money which nawaz sharif didnt want to spend so they pitched private investment with lot of kick backs for 3 years and then built LNG on govt money, now LNG was a great plan except that LNG is now 30$mbtu..now what!?

Coal coastal with competitive bidding and high power transmission cable(built by current govt) and doubling on dasu bhasha munda & thar coal was the answer

Coastal coal project--->>scrapped for inland coal projects(doesnt even make sense transporting coal so far!)

Transmission projects--->>>scrapped

Dasu delayed bhahsa not even touched..munda ..thrown in dustbin

گندم کھانے سے آدم جنت سے نکالے گئے۔۔ پیٹرول سے پولوشن پھیلتی ہے۔۔۔ چینی شوگر کا باعث ہے۔۔ دوائیاں گردے ختم کر دیتی ہیں سونا مرد کیلیے حرام ہے۔۔ ڈالر یہودی کرنسی ھے۔۔۔ چاول کھا کھا کربنگالی غدار ھوگئے۔۔۔لہذا تم گھاس کھایا کرو اور میرے گیت گایا کرو
آپ کا اپنا شغلِ اعظم نیازی
‏‎‎بقول کپتان جب 2018 تک وہ دو خاندان پاکستان کا پیسہ باہر بھیج چکےتھے تو۔
چینی 50 روپےکلو تھی، پٹرول 78 روپے لٹر اور ڈالر 106 روپے کا تھا۔۔
اب 3 سال سے وہ دو خاندان حکومت میں نہیں ہیں۔
پھر چینی 150 روپے کلو، پٹرول 146 روپے لٹر اور ڈالر 176 روپےکا کیسے ہوگیا ۔

Bhai i like the amount of ghee and sugar pakistanis use..really helps my business(cardiology doctor)

The amount paksitani use mean that heart disease is 3-4x more common in pakistan
Shortening oil(ghee) is practically banned in other countries..people use vegetable oil

The amount of sugar..wow..
پاکستان دنیا کا واحد قوم ہے جو قرضہ لے کر بھول جاتے ہیں کہ انکو سود بے دینا پڑے گا

 

[Zibago]

This is why any PM should have minimum understanding of how economy works. Tareen made fool out of Imran Khan to get a job and now he is back to ground reality once CAD run out of control.

Parh to lo bola kia hy

After three-years in power, the incompetent PTI Government has managed to increase exports by only $2.1

Still better than letting exports fall

https://ntc.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Study-on-Reasons-of-Decline-in-Exports.pdf

 

[Zibago]

There was a civil war like situation, mass unemployment,18-hours daily load-shedding, extreme poverty, industries shut, people committing suicides and the whole country was in a depression like mood.

And this is what PMLN did

Over four years of PML-N, Pakistani exports take a major hit

By the end of 2016-17 fiscal year, export receipts have over the past four years on the bounce have been sliding big time – by as much as 17 percent compared to where they stood in 2013 post PPP’s

profit.pakistantoday.com.pk

taxation doesn't always solve problems. If the imported goods are a necessity because we don't produce alternatives locally, taxation doesn't have major impact on bringing down imports.

Also too much protection is also bad
It creates complacency in the protected industry

 

[ziaulislam]

Charter of economy is needed

3 administrations have tried 3 different economic polices - meant no stable economic policy

So far just two different polcies have been used ovwr last 40 years
Import based
Export based

We all know the results

And this is what PMLN did

Over four years of PML-N, Pakistani exports take a major hit

By the end of 2016-17 fiscal year, export receipts have over the past four years on the bounce have been sliding big time – by as much as 17 percent compared to where they stood in 2013 post PPP’s

profit.pakistantoday.com.pk

Also too much protection is also bad
It creates complacency in the protected industry

Textiles never asked of protection but same price as region i.e 7.5 cents

 

[ARMalik]

@ps3linux @blueazure .... I think these Gentlemen had already posted long ago about why Pakistan CANNOT MAINTAIN a HIGH GDP rate.

 

[Zibago]

Textiles never asked of protection but same price as region i.e 7.5 cents

I was referring to the auto industry which is over protected and is selling junk at a higher price now

 

[blueazure]

@ps3linux @blueazure .... I think these Gentlemen had already posted long ago about why Pakistan CANNOT MAINTAIN a HIGH GDP rate.

shaukat tareen is lying - he's a banker scum after all ( owner of silk bank which he just sold to aleem khan) and a front man of zardari) .

i will not trust anything coming from him


LIE # 1
pak maintained hi growth rate ( based on imports )?

LIE # 2
cant maintain hi growth rate @ 5.5 .... ( means the above point was a LIE !)

---------------

the country has been handed over to morons and con artists -

 

[ARMalik]

shaukat tareen is lying - he's a banker scum after all ( owner of silk bank which he just sold to aleem khan) and a front man of zardari) .

i will not trust anything coming from him


LIE # 1
pak maintained hi growth rate ( based on imports )?

LIE # 2
cant maintain hi growth rate @ 5.5 .... ( means the above point was a LIE !)

---------------

the country has been handed over to morons and con artists -

Nothing new mate. This has been going on for decades. The country is in absolute shambles, and heading for an economic disaster, and I don't say this lightly. CORRUPTION by Ruling and Military Elites has sucked every once of blood from this country.