GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD

[DalalErMaNodi]

Well you can imagine what the situation would be in Pakistan if PMLN refused to hand power to caretaker govt to run a credible election (which saw a peaceful transition of power to another party given the anti-incumbency)....and instead PMLN "won" a 95% seat mandate instead.

You tell me what would be the current situation resulting from that for GDP (esp credibility and sustainability) today if that happened, because that has happened in equivalent way for BD. BBS is an inflation laundering machine....and the reason is clear once you look at all 3rd party vetted data (trade, investment, loans and forex level)

PMIK has inherited a real mess, but at least first step of recognising the mess is done so it can be fixed over time. That is the main difference in credibility now between BD and rest of south asia that dont have 95% staged seat results....or linger at bottom 10% percentile of corruption constantly.



Well said....and of course we are seeing shooting of messenger already.

Just like that dhaka uni professor that pointed out that household consumption dropped in BBS own HIES survey once you factor in consumer price level.

BBS never responded to that....and same people attacked that analysis.

Then such people want to hold up ADB, WB, IMF or whomever else analysis/prediction....as though those groups have their own independent input data stream (regarding base consumptions and price levels) rather than the one published by BBS. ...i.e Nothing systematic from BBS gets baked in at all apparently....its all a fresh set of eyes and clean parallel streams.



Yes this is going to be quite bad chunk of years coming up for many countries. Not everything is going to recover at same rate either...and there is likely some level of long term (5+ years) damage to many sectors...esp. given what the overall equity yields are looking like now esp for developing countries.



Yah, but BD does not like doing those credibly (the dhaka prof I refer to is one example where there was no response to a major real result that was overlooked in a govt survey itself).

If BD had some sense it would fund (or simply allow independent funding of) more economic institutions to offer better internal challenges and debates and RFI etc for their monolith govt econometrics....like is done in better standards countries (with better credit ratings and corruption rankings) as result.

But the ruling PM has all kind of vendetta against even their better economic minds like prof yunus of grameen. She has 95% seat result to brag and lord over any dissonant voices.

Whether it is 95% or 85% is irrelevant, it's immaterial in the context of this thread and this discussion.


Bangladesh is not a democracy, nobody pretends it is one. No Bangladeshi will ever say Bangladesh is a democracy. Hasina just keeps up the sham for various reasons relating to international diplomacy.


We like it the way it is, we don't need democracy in Bangladesh.



So your obsession with the 95% figure is quite jarring and brings nothing to the discussion.



But it matches your modus operandi :

Derailment of thread by efficient use of pedantry, outdated data and incongruous comments about the state of our 'Democracy'.


In order words : A whole lot of nothingness.



I have but one question : Why ?

 

[bluesky]

Bangladesh did not impose strict lockdown like many other neighboring countries so the impact was lesser than those countries. Let’s hypothetically 2.5% gdp growth still it’s better than many other countries where GDP growth was negative. But I highly doubt it is below 4% anyway.

Bd did not impose complete lock down, but all the importing countries did so. How do you think it would be possible for BD to export big volume of textiles when there was almost negative growth since March? Please read many of the threads you yourself have opened during and after that time.

Now, suddenly that BBS come up with a 5.3% growth. This is fiction like always to look good. People want to know true and unbiased information.

 

[Black_cats]

Bd did not impose complete lock down, but all the importing countries did so. How do you think it would be possible for BD to export big volume of textiles when there was almost negative growth since March? Please read many of the threads you yourself have opened during and after that time.

Now, suddenly that BBS come up with a 5.3% growth. This is fiction like always to look good. People want to know true and unbiased information.

Do you know how yearly growth rate works? It counts growth rate of all 12 month. 8.5 month economic activity was normal. Yes around 2 month there were lockdown but people were everywhere. Textile export reduces during last 3 month but all economic activity within the country stopped? Answer is no but it was partially impacted for sure and probably had negative growth but I don’t see negative growth is beyond 4-6%.

 

[Nilgiri]

Whether it is 95% or 85% is irrelevant, it's immaterial in the context of this thread and this discussion.


Bangladesh is not a democracy, nobody pretends it is one. No Bangladeshi will ever say Bangladesh is a democracy. Hasina just keeps up the sham for various reasons relating to international diplomacy.


We like it the way it is, we don't need democracy in Bangladesh.



So your obsession with the 95% figure is quite jarring and brings nothing to the discussion.



But it matches your modus operandi :

Derailment of thread by efficient use of pedantry, outdated data and incongruous comments about the state of our 'Democracy'.


In order words : A whole lot of nothingness.



I have but one question : Why ?

It has everything to do with your institutional credibility. Only a lousy institutional country with heavy corruption can pull off a 95% election result...the other option is military junta which shares much of the same features.

It is all correlated, it doesnt neatly abruptly end in politics domain and somehow magically not extend to every organ under said political apparatus.

For example: the reason there is a huge mismatch in your actual consumption of base inputs to your final inflation loaded GDP claim (as you simply extrapolate freebie LDC access driven RMG export to entirety of your taka claim...no matter how much inflation is present in that Taka due to whatever political pressure from the corrupt govt

That too especially as low-base effect growth wears off and very little diversification and lateral investments happen.

Take a look at your total energy consumption for example. It is only now approaching per capita what India, Vietnam, Pakistan all consumed at in the 1960s.

Has BBS released a white paper explaining why this peculiarity is found only in BD given its claimed GDP per capita?...and what the reason is for it? This super duper energy efficiency driven GDP at such low base and investment level too.

Nope.

What about the forex reserves (again stuff accumulated the hard vetted non-paper way), why have they stagnated since 2017 at the same level?

You call Vietnam as "puny" elsewhere.....yet from 2017 how did their forex grow? Or India's for that matter?

https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-exchange-reserves

(40 billion to 80 billion...a doubling in 2017- current)

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-exchange-reserves

(360 billion to 530 billion....near 50% growth in 2017-current)

https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/foreign-exchange-reserves

(32 to 36 billion.....stagnation for most of the period and blip at end mostly due to corona economics)

Want to know why these forex reserves have stagnated like this at such a low base too... for apparently a tiger export country claiming 7% or 8% growth yearly?...that is promising all kind of diversification and investment impetus and planned export growth model success?

Are you allowed to ask that to BAL? Will you get an answer? Or BD is the miracle feature of this that has never been seen anywhere in world?

Has BAL explained why and how it tanked the market cap from 70 billion to 30 billion in just one year at the DSE lately? Nope....because guess who was involved in that in a big way....and what the consequence that is now on leveraging loans....and the domino effect that will have later.

Why does every actual 3rd party metric (say remote sensing light level of BD at night from space) always show some huge dissonance with BD economic numbers? Answer: all the inflation. The same inflation thats used on rote now to make whatever number looks good.

Maybe you should ask BAL next why all the hue and cry and fanfare about rebasing the GDP has all gone quiet too while you are at it. Why that's linked to the HIES consumption survey too....specifically some not so nice stuff there that cannot be mathamagic'ed away.

I'm sure they will give a 95% credible answer on it.

 

[DalalErMaNodi]

It has everything to do with your institutional credibility. Only a lousy institutional country with heavy corruption can pull off a 95% election result...the other option is military junta which shares much of the same features.

It is all correlated, it doesnt neatly abruptly end in politics domain and somehow magically not extend to every organ under said political apparatus.

For example: the reason there is a huge mismatch in your actual consumption of base inputs to your final inflation loaded GDP claim (as you simply extrapolate freebie LDC access driven RMG export to entirety of your taka claim...no matter how much inflation is present in that Taka due to whatever political pressure from the corrupt govt

That too especially as low-base effect growth wears off and very little diversification and lateral investments happen.

Take a look at your total energy consumption for example. It is only now approaching per capita what India, Vietnam, Pakistan all consumed at in the 1960s.

Has BBS released a white paper explaining why this peculiarity is found only in BD given its claimed GDP per capita?...and what the reason is for it? This super duper energy efficiency driven GDP at such low base and investment level too.

Nope.

What about the forex reserves (again stuff accumulated the hard vetted non-paper way), why have they stagnated since 2017 at the same level?

You call Vietnam as "puny" elsewhere.....yet from 2017 how did their forex grow? Or India's for that matter?

https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-exchange-reserves

(40 billion to 80 billion...a doubling in 2017- current)

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-exchange-reserves

(360 billion to 530 billion....near 50% growth in 2017-current)

https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/foreign-exchange-reserves

(32 to 36 billion.....stagnation for most of the period and blip at end mostly due to corona economics)

Want to know why these forex reserves have stagnated like this at such a low base too... for apparently a tiger export country claiming 7% or 8% growth yearly?...that is promising all kind of diversification and investment impetus and planned export growth model success?

Are you allowed to ask that to BAL? Will you get an answer? Or BD is the miracle feature of this that has never been seen anywhere in world?

Has BAL explained why and how it tanked the market cap from 70 billion to 30 billion in just one year at the DSE lately? Nope....because guess who was involved in that in a big way....and what the consequence that is now on leveraging loans....and the domino effect that will have later.

Why does every actual 3rd party metric (say remote sensing light level of BD at night from space) always show some huge dissonance with BD economic numbers? Answer: all the inflation. The same inflation thats used on rote now to make whatever number looks good.

Maybe you should ask BAL next why all the hue and cry and fanfare about rebasing the GDP has all gone quiet too while you are at it. Why that's linked to the HIES consumption survey too....specifically some not so nice stuff there that cannot be mathamagic'ed away.

I'm sure they will give a 95% credible answer on it.

Yet more pedantry.

Classic.

 

[idune]

@WebMaster and mods, could you please take action on violation of your forum rules

 

[bluesky]

Do you know how yearly growth rate works? It counts growth rate of all 12 month. 8.5 month economic activity was normal. Yes around 2 month there were lockdown but people were everywhere. Textile export reduces during last 3 month but all economic activity within the country stopped? Answer is no but it was partially impacted for sure and probably had negative growth but I don’t see negative growth is beyond 4-6%.

Now, you are asking me about how to do math. Better you learn more on how to analyze the data. You are working for your party and I talk for my country. Yes, the pandemic did not stop people from working for a long period. But, industrial production in textiles was very slow because the importing countries' activities were slow.

Textile growth was certainly negative and agriculture certainly did not pull the economy to a 5.3% growth. When industrial growth is slow, the service sector was certainly slower than normal. So, which sector pulled ahead the economy?

BBS is as usual hoodwinking the world into believing its data and you have fallen for this bias.

 

[Black_cats]

Now, you are asking me about how to do math. Better you learn more on how to analyze the data. You are working for your party and I talk for my country. Yes, the pandemic did not stop people from working for a long period. But, industrial production in textiles was very slow because the importing countries' activities were slow.

Textile growth was certainly negative and agriculture certainly did not pull the economy to a 5.3% growth. When industrial growth is slow, the service sector was certainly slower than normal. So, which sector pulled ahead the economy?

BBS is as usual hoodwinking the world into believing its data and you have fallen for this bias.

You are again blabbering same thing again and again. The GDP growth in first 8.5 month itself overall 5.67% GDP growth considering 8% GDP growth from July, 2019 to mid of March, 2020. Now lockdown started from March 26, 2020 and Europe and USA started lockdown around mid March. So negative growth happened in April and May but June things started to open. Now question is how much negative growth happened in April and May? Same thing for June. Did economy reduced month over month at a rate of -10% which is very unlikely. If not GDP growth rate is above 2.5%.

 

[Black_cats]

You are working for your party and I talk for my country

That takes the cake

 

[bluesky]

You are again blabbering same thing again and again. The GDP growth in first 8.5 month itself overall 5.67% GDP growth considering 8% GDP growth from July, 2019 to mid of March, 2020. Now lockdown started from March 26, 2020 and Europe and USA started lockdown around mid March. So negative growth happened in April and May but June things started to open. Now question is how much negative growth happened in April and May? Same thing for June. Did economy reduced month over month at a rate of -10% which is very unlikely. If not GDP growth rate is above 2.5%.

I have little time to go through your continuous blabbering and answer some unworthy points. Let BBS speak out and protest the CPD standing. I believe what CPD says because they are economists. i wonder, if your BBS guys know even logarithm. I am not asking you the same, though!!

 

[Black_cats]

I have little time to go through your continuous blabbering and answer some unworthy points. Let BBS speak out and protest the CPD standing. I believe what CPD says because they are economists. i wonder, if your BBS guys know even logarithm. I am not asking you the same, though!!

CPD said that in June and they are trying to stick to their point. Even if BBS made some error it is highly unlikely GDP growth is below 4%.

 

[idune]

Bottom line is now independent research agency has identified cooked up GDP data by awami league regime. Hence, in CPD reference "GDP calculation as political tool" used where regime used cooked up (using BBS) data than real number. Regime has dedicated cheerleaders and beneficiaries who had been howling these cooked data when reality is people close to ruling party and government officials (who are mostly recruited from awami league party loyal) are got richer. middle class suffered a lot and so are lower income section of population. One can see how "Bangladeshi" youth willing to die to get out of "Bangladesh". Or how someone willing to take bullet from indian BSF just to earn enough to survive. If regime GDP and economic growth fairy tale was true, these tragic stories would not have repeated for yeas. Its time awami cheer leading gang here (labeling themselves as "for country") cease their propaganda and let "Bangladesh" be developed for REAL.

 

[Destranator]

CPD's suggestion for audit is in line with what I suggested the other day.
CPD, IMF, WB, SANEM, etc are not all "Jamatis".

As for ADB, they have a habit of accepting government stats for any country at face value with minor tweaks here and there, due to their own institutional deficiencies in terms of economic forecasting. Look up their stats for other countries vis-a-vis corresponding gov stats.

I know it hurts our little egos and puts into question our per capita figures we like to rub into the faces of other countries but BBS data is unreliable; Let us get it through our thick skulls.

More like Bureau of Feel-good Goofy Statistics.
People just love to believe questionable stats to feel good about themselves. The reality is our economy has not reached the level of sophistication required to grow at 8% without exporting fossil fuel/minerals.

Growth in energy demand and level of private sector investment do not seem consistent with BBS stats.

Current GDP/GNI stats from BBS are heavily inflated as every year they build on inflated stats from the preceding year.

BBS needs a number of independent audits by the likes of PWC, KPMG, etc..

Check out the below.

https://www.thedailystar.net/busine...th-asian-network-on-economic-modeling-1741114

https://www.thedailystar.net/business/cpd-doubts-bangladesh-gdp-growth-8-plus-in-2019-20-1733533

http://www.newagebd.net/article/50918/bangladeshs-gdp-grew-by-record-786pc-in-fy18-experts-doubt

http://www.newagebd.net/article/74842/gdp-growth-doubted-quality-questioned

https://bdnews24.com/economy/2018/0...-casting-doubt-on-bangladesh-s-gdp-projection

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/wb-questions-government-data-about-gdp-growth-1523276955

https://tbsnews.net/economy/high-growth-yet-questions-galore

https://www.thedailystar.net/gdp-growth-the-numbers-game-29204

 

[DalalErMaNodi]

CPD's suggestion for audit is in line with what I suggested the other day.
CPD, IMF, WB, SANEM, etc are not all "Jamatis".

As for ADB, they have a habit of accepting government stats for any country at face value due to their own institutional deficiencies in terms of economic forecasting. Look up their stats for other countries vis-a-vis corresponding gov stats.

I know it hurts our little egos and puts into question our per capita figures we like to rub into the faces of other countries but BBS data is unreliable; Let us get it through our thick skulls.




https://www.thedailystar.net/busine...th-asian-network-on-economic-modeling-1741114

https://www.thedailystar.net/business/cpd-doubts-bangladesh-gdp-growth-8-plus-in-2019-20-1733533

http://www.newagebd.net/article/50918/bangladeshs-gdp-grew-by-record-786pc-in-fy18-experts-doubt

http://www.newagebd.net/article/74842/gdp-growth-doubted-quality-questioned

https://bdnews24.com/economy/2018/0...-casting-doubt-on-bangladesh-s-gdp-projection

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/wb-questions-government-data-about-gdp-growth-1523276955

https://tbsnews.net/economy/high-growth-yet-questions-galore

https://www.thedailystar.net/gdp-growth-the-numbers-game-29204

The ingrates we are, we are complaining about 2.5% or 3% growth amid a pandemic to the scale of which the modern world has never seen.

What we fail to realise is Bangladesh is the fastest growing economy this year besides Vietnam.


Meanwhile, other countries in the region are in recession and are experiencing negative growth.


Bengali ingrates..... Arguing over stats for a few dollars from Tarek Rahman

 

[Destranator]

I have little time to go through your continuous blabbering and answer some unworthy points. Let BBS speak out and protest the CPD standing. I believe what CPD says because they are economists. i wonder, if your BBS guys know even logarithm. I am not asking you the same, though!!

No, no, Dr. Fahmida Khatun is a Jamati now.