GDP 4.1pc grows five years high

[forcetrip]

Pakistan FY is July-June. Today report was released for first three quarters, July-March of FY13-14, growth 4.1%. Full FY report will be released by octuber this year.

As i said by19 June not even FY ended.



First july? Or 7 January?

Dates are given next to correspondence. Last letter was for 1st July. We just have to wait for 19th June one being posted.

 

[farhan_9909]

Definitely should have. I give you that. But thats not how news stories work. Thats more like investigative reporting.

until than,this is only a random claim as long as he doesn't attach the copy of MFEP MOU signed with IMF with his report.

 

[Shabaz Sharif]

GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Graph


Well sir if they report is not released,How the writer got the info?

He should have not opened his mouth as long as the official report is not revealed.

Post the MFEP MOU with IMF and everyone will believe it.

This is the problem with the Pakistani qoam.They will never ever accept even if they are growing positive

Thats why i said Tribune article sound like personal opinion instead of facts.

 

[forcetrip]

GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Graph


Well sir if they report is not released,How the writer got the info?

He should have not opened his mouth as long as the official report is not revealed.

Post the MFEP MOU with IMF and everyone will believe it.

This is the problem with the Pakistani qoam.They will never ever accept even if they are growing positive

The official report is revealed, just not publicly. I will try to get that June 19 correspondence from somewhere. But what will happen if I do? Post it here for you all to still protect the bad apples?

Its exactly the opposite. Pakistani qoum is actually a bit too positive that they feel that fudging numbers is part of the deal.

 

[INDIC]

Good info. Learned something new.

3.3% growth, 4.1% growth and 6.1% growth. which one is true.

 

[forcetrip]

until than,this is only a random claim as long as he doesn't attach the copy of MFEP MOU signed with IMF with his report.

Plus a picture of Ishaq Dar handing over the report showing 3.3% in bold letters.

 

[farhan_9909]

The official report is revealed, just not publicly. I will try to get that June 19 correspondence from somewhere. But what will happen if I do? Post it here for you all to still protect the bad apples?

Its exactly the opposite. Pakistani qoum is actually a bit too positive that they feel that fudging numbers is part of the deal.

World bank certainly is not fool to put Pakistan Growth rate at 6.1%

Most important the 2012-13 Growth rate achieved was 3.6% under PPP but even IMF today has updated it to 4.1%

Anyway i will simply accept it.But i am not going to accept a random claim when the world bank and economy survey put a different numbers

 

[forcetrip]

World bank certainly is not fool to put Pakistan Growth rate at 6.1%

Most important the 2012-13 Growth rate achieved was 3.6% under PPP but even IMF today has updated it to 4.1%

Anyway i will simply accept it.But i am not going to accept a random claim when the world bank and economy survey put a different numbers

Pakistans growth rate is not 6.1%. You know that and I know that. I hope you know that. Because 6% growth rate effects would have blown any anti sharif guy out of the park. Now I will try to bring more details about what you call this random proof because its a huge claim and it has been quoted as the government saying this, not some analyst on a talk show. If untrue the newspaper can be shut down and barred for spreading false information and libel proceedings can begin.

 

[farhan_9909]

Pakistans growth rate is not 6.1%. You know that and I know that. I hope you know that. Because 6% growth rate effects would have blown any anti sharif guy out of the park. Now I will try to bring more details about what you call this random proof because its a huge claim and it has been quoted as the government saying this, not some analyst on a talk show. If untrue the newspaper can be shut down and barred for spreading false information and libel proceedings can begin.

Not going to happen.Many such random claims are made one after another in Pakistan even if the Economy growth rate is in double digit.these journalist has the habit of making claim to bring public attraction.

i am not pro PMLN but i am also not going to accept any claim with no solid proof

 

[ares]

Pakistan’s fudged GDP figure

pervez.tahir@tribune.com.pk

Being in Istanbul, I had hoped to be able to write on the possible nexus between Taksim Square, Tahrir Square and our own D-Chowk in the context of the ‘holy trinity’ of the Q3 — Qadri, Q League and Quasi Tehreek of Imran Khan. However, the press reports about data fudging made me change my mind. In any case, the Q3 have been stumped by the launch ofZarb-e-Azb. It seems fudging has become an official habituation. The PML-N government had no reasons to do wonders in its very first year. But it began with the fudging of GDP data by claiming over five per cent growth in the first quarter of 2013-14. Pakistan did not have a quarterly GDP series, which hindered decision making and analyses during the year. Patient work on it was underway for some time, but the overzealous finance minister, who also chairs the National Statistical Council, forced the PBS to make a premature announcement based on what was essentially work in progress. Deformation thus built into the series has been carried into the estimation of the annual number. A good and much-needed initiative lost credibility from day one.

On the budgetary side, the fiscal deficit continues to be the Achilles’ heel. When the IMF is looking over the shoulder of the government, it becomes the centre point of policy. In the absence of meaningful tax reform and expenditure management, all kinds of tricks are played to show it at the targeted level. Shahbaz Rana (The Express Tribune, June 14) has stolen the gimmickry of treating the Saudi grant and the other development expenditure in a way that scales down the fiscal deficit. What is more worrying, however, is the massive surplus imposed on the provincial budgets. In the last budget, this surplus was only Rs23 billion. The revised figure, not given in the budget, is around Rs200 billion. In the budget for 2014-15, the provincial surplus is pitched even higher at Rs289 billion. As the increase in the provincial share in the National Finance Commission resources is Rs218 billion, the practice means that the federal government will take back from the provinces more than what it gave as additionality. It works to cover up the federal government’s inability to restrain its current spending and development enthusiasm despite the devolution of most development activity to the provinces. Also, it enables continued bestowing of exemptions and exceptions in the tax structure to vested interests. For the provinces, this back-hand deal involves development expenditures lower than what they would have been. Social sector and agriculture, the sectors that relate to the poor most, fall wholly in the provincial domain.

The icing on the fudged cake is the poverty data. Although Pakistan is seriously lagging behind on most MDG targets, the one related to reducing poverty to 13 per cent by 2015 was achieved in 2010-11! At least that is what the latest Economic Survey claims by estimating the headcount ratio at 12.4 per cent. At his post-budget press conference, the finance minister placed over 50 per cent of Pakistanis below the poverty line. He was referring to the $2 a day poverty estimates by the World Bank. Who does one believe? Kis ka yaqeen ki jeeaye kis ka na ki jeeaye (Who should be believe, who should we not believe).

The autonomy of the PBS was meant to overcome this habituation of fudging. Let the PBS be under the CCI rather than the ministry of finance, with professional board members representing the provinces as well as the federal government. As fiscal data is produced by the ministry of finance, not the PBS, other means will have to be found to ensure fiscal transparency.

Pakistan's fudged GDP figure – The Express Tribune

 

[INS Kolkata]

3.3% growth, 4.1% growth and 6.1% growth. which one is true.

Annual GDP growth forecast by World Bank for Pakistan is 3.7% for 2014.
World Bank > Data > Country (Pakistan) > Scroll Down to - Global Economic Prospects - Forecasts

 

[forcetrip]

Not going to happen.Many such random claims are made one after another in Pakistan even if the Economy growth rate is in double digit.these journalist has the habit of making claim to bring public attraction.

i am not pro PMLN but i am also not going to accept any claim with no solid proof

The journalist is quoting the government. Its not an unknown source. Journalism 101. I will find and post that letter here and then we can accept it together.

 

[INDIC]

Annual GDP growth forecast by World Bank for Pakistan is 3.7% for 2014.
World Bank > Data > Country (Pakistan) > Scroll Down to - Global Economic Prospects - Forecasts

6.1% growth seems a wrong figure because conditions such amount of growth isn't present in Pakistan right now.

 

[farhan_9909]

Annual GDP growth forecast by World Bank for Pakistan is 3.7% for 2014.
World Bank > Data > Country (Pakistan) > Scroll Down to - Global Economic Prospects - Forecasts

Unless you think World bank is pro Paksitan

Beside this the Growth rate,GDP PPP,GDP Nominal figure for 2013 are only updated late last month.IMF still hold the 2012 Growth rate for Pakistan(Google trend)

Pakistan 2013 Growth rate revised to 6.1%: World Bank

 

[Shabaz Sharif]

not some analyst on a talk show. If untrue the newspaper can be shut down and barred for spreading false information and libel proceedings can begin.

I agree that WB 6.1% is exagerated, but what are you saying about libel case is 100% untrue in Pakistan Other wise 90% of news papers/ tv channels will be banned over night.