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Editorial By Najam Sethi
Despite the usual limitations and qualifications of any polling exercise, a recent national poll by Gallup Pakistan covering January-July 2011 reveals interesting political trends regarding the public perception of the performance of politicians, judges and generals that they would be advised to heed.
Game is set
Despite the usual limitations and qualifications of any polling exercise, a recent national poll by Gallup Pakistan covering January-July 2011 reveals interesting political trends regarding the public perception of the performance of politicians, judges and generals that they would be advised to heed.
Asif Zardari (PPP), Yousaf Raza Gillani (PPP), Altaf Hussain (MQM), Fazalur Rehman (JUI), Chaudhry Shujaat (PMLQ), Asfandyar Wali (ANP), General (retd) Pervez Musharraf (APML) and Munawar Hussain (JI) are viewed negatively by a majority of Pakistanis. Most Pakistanis also think that we have made a hash of law and order, foreign policy and the economy. Since all except the JI are part of the ruling coalitions, this is a significant indictment with electoral implications. Munawar Hussain is in the dock because of his extremist position on most issues, a departure from the carefully articulated responses of his predecessor Qazi Hussain Ahmad, while people have still not forgotten General Musharraf's excesses (Lal Masjid, CJP ouster, etc) in his last year in office.
Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif, Imran Khan and General Ashfaq Kayani are viewed positively. But before they begin to dance a jig, all except Imran Khan should realize that they are rapidly losing positivity. Justice Chaudhry's positivity has declined from +24 to +16, Nawaz's from +16 to +12, Shahbaz's from +20 to +10, and General Kayani's from +19 to +1. Clearly, Justice Chaudhry hasn't delivered justice while appearing to be biased against the PPP; the Sharifs haven't provided good governance in Punjab or stiff opposition to Zardari; and General Kayani's stock has fallen because he has taken a three-year extension in service and because the US Navy Seal Raid to extract OBL from the military's backyard in May is perceived to show the army leadership's complicity or incompetence. These factors would help to explain why the Sharifs are now on the road, canvassing for votes and lashing out at Zardari, while General Kayani is publicly taking a hard line with the Americans.
Imran Khan is the only positive gainer, albeit only from +4 to +5. But by the time Gallup does another poll in December this is likely to rise in view of the popular support he is now getting. This will probably be at the expense of the Sharifs rather than Zardari because Zardari's negativity has declined from -53 to -39. Indeed, Zardari is expected to "improve" his performance by doling it out as the election draws nearer.
All the Chief Ministers, except for Punjab's Shahbaz Sharif, are negatively viewed. But Sharif's position is stagnant, which means he is running to stay in the same place.
The poll also predicts voting behaviour based on this outlook. The PPP got 31% of the vote in 2008 but would get only 19% if elections had been held last July. The PMLN got 20% in 2008 but would more than double its tally to 41% now. The PMLQ got 23% in 2008 but would be wiped out now - its voters will swing to the PMLN. Imran Khan's PTI would be a third contender.
The public perception of the military's performance is significant. It gets a positive +15 rating for conducting successful operations in FATA. But it is -3 on handling political issues, -12 on ability to run government and -67 on conducting Pakistan's foreign policy. This should deter any wannabe Bonaparte.
It is perfectly understandable that over 66% are fed up and want a change in the political situation and over 75% are ready to opt for an immediate election. The good news for Nawaz Sharif is that 75% are for him and only 21% for Asif Zardari and Nawaz also has an edge (53%) over the army (45%). The bad news for him is that a government of technocrats (54%) is preferable to one by him (45%), which should feed into the conspiracy theory of an army-judiciary backed putsch to set things right by means of a prolonged "interim" government of clean and efficient technocrats.
The poll was conducted three months ago. Since then new developments may have impacted public opinion. An outbreak of Dengue fever is hurting Shahbaz Sharif's performance. Meanwhile, the PMLQ has all but merged into the PPP and an electoral alliance between the two is bound to hurt the PMLN. The floating Muslim Leaguers of the Likeminded Group and Independents are running from one camp to another, hoping to be absorbed into the PPP, PMLN or PTI. Imran Khan is making a dent in Sharif's vote bank in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa while Sharif is desperately casting about in Sindh, trying to rope in those who went with the PMLQ in 2002 and 2008 because it was the King's party then. The mullahs are making a bid to come back in KP so that they can make an alliance with the PTI or PMLN in the next coalition government there.
The next poll in December should be decisive after it incorporates these new trends. The game's all set.
Despite the usual limitations and qualifications of any polling exercise, a recent national poll by Gallup Pakistan covering January-July 2011 reveals interesting political trends regarding the public perception of the performance of politicians, judges and generals that they would be advised to heed.
Game is set
Despite the usual limitations and qualifications of any polling exercise, a recent national poll by Gallup Pakistan covering January-July 2011 reveals interesting political trends regarding the public perception of the performance of politicians, judges and generals that they would be advised to heed.
Asif Zardari (PPP), Yousaf Raza Gillani (PPP), Altaf Hussain (MQM), Fazalur Rehman (JUI), Chaudhry Shujaat (PMLQ), Asfandyar Wali (ANP), General (retd) Pervez Musharraf (APML) and Munawar Hussain (JI) are viewed negatively by a majority of Pakistanis. Most Pakistanis also think that we have made a hash of law and order, foreign policy and the economy. Since all except the JI are part of the ruling coalitions, this is a significant indictment with electoral implications. Munawar Hussain is in the dock because of his extremist position on most issues, a departure from the carefully articulated responses of his predecessor Qazi Hussain Ahmad, while people have still not forgotten General Musharraf's excesses (Lal Masjid, CJP ouster, etc) in his last year in office.
Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif, Imran Khan and General Ashfaq Kayani are viewed positively. But before they begin to dance a jig, all except Imran Khan should realize that they are rapidly losing positivity. Justice Chaudhry's positivity has declined from +24 to +16, Nawaz's from +16 to +12, Shahbaz's from +20 to +10, and General Kayani's from +19 to +1. Clearly, Justice Chaudhry hasn't delivered justice while appearing to be biased against the PPP; the Sharifs haven't provided good governance in Punjab or stiff opposition to Zardari; and General Kayani's stock has fallen because he has taken a three-year extension in service and because the US Navy Seal Raid to extract OBL from the military's backyard in May is perceived to show the army leadership's complicity or incompetence. These factors would help to explain why the Sharifs are now on the road, canvassing for votes and lashing out at Zardari, while General Kayani is publicly taking a hard line with the Americans.
Imran Khan is the only positive gainer, albeit only from +4 to +5. But by the time Gallup does another poll in December this is likely to rise in view of the popular support he is now getting. This will probably be at the expense of the Sharifs rather than Zardari because Zardari's negativity has declined from -53 to -39. Indeed, Zardari is expected to "improve" his performance by doling it out as the election draws nearer.
All the Chief Ministers, except for Punjab's Shahbaz Sharif, are negatively viewed. But Sharif's position is stagnant, which means he is running to stay in the same place.
The poll also predicts voting behaviour based on this outlook. The PPP got 31% of the vote in 2008 but would get only 19% if elections had been held last July. The PMLN got 20% in 2008 but would more than double its tally to 41% now. The PMLQ got 23% in 2008 but would be wiped out now - its voters will swing to the PMLN. Imran Khan's PTI would be a third contender.
The public perception of the military's performance is significant. It gets a positive +15 rating for conducting successful operations in FATA. But it is -3 on handling political issues, -12 on ability to run government and -67 on conducting Pakistan's foreign policy. This should deter any wannabe Bonaparte.
It is perfectly understandable that over 66% are fed up and want a change in the political situation and over 75% are ready to opt for an immediate election. The good news for Nawaz Sharif is that 75% are for him and only 21% for Asif Zardari and Nawaz also has an edge (53%) over the army (45%). The bad news for him is that a government of technocrats (54%) is preferable to one by him (45%), which should feed into the conspiracy theory of an army-judiciary backed putsch to set things right by means of a prolonged "interim" government of clean and efficient technocrats.
The poll was conducted three months ago. Since then new developments may have impacted public opinion. An outbreak of Dengue fever is hurting Shahbaz Sharif's performance. Meanwhile, the PMLQ has all but merged into the PPP and an electoral alliance between the two is bound to hurt the PMLN. The floating Muslim Leaguers of the Likeminded Group and Independents are running from one camp to another, hoping to be absorbed into the PPP, PMLN or PTI. Imran Khan is making a dent in Sharif's vote bank in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa while Sharif is desperately casting about in Sindh, trying to rope in those who went with the PMLQ in 2002 and 2008 because it was the King's party then. The mullahs are making a bid to come back in KP so that they can make an alliance with the PTI or PMLN in the next coalition government there.
The next poll in December should be decisive after it incorporates these new trends. The game's all set.
