ACE OF THE AIR
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as of 2014 NATO forces are going to withdraw from afghanistan but karzai administration and new afghan army are to weak to stop the country from falling into chaos.
Late 2014:
most of the international troops withdraw,leaving behind only 10,000 american and 6,000 other NATO troops behind with a substantial air force and a few drones,as americans have left so situation gets really worse worse in the southern and eastern provinces from farah to nuristan and tensions also escalate in provinces like baghlan,herat,kunduz etc.
2015:
taliban launch aggresive assaults through out the southern provinces and destroying the weak afghan army and many of these soldiers start joining the taliban ranks and launch bombings and artillery fire in the cities kandahar and ghazni which are still controlled by afghan army with help from usa.drone strikes are increased in the southern as well as eastern provinces like logar,khost,paktia etc but to little avail,in the north the hizb-e-islami faction of gulbudin hekmatyar is facing difficulty in taking full control of provinces like nangarhar,nuristan,kunar as in these areas thenorthern alliance is able to support the army,the main battlefield in the north is the city of jalalabad.
2016:
due to to much bombings and loss of afghan and american soldier,americans and afghan army decide that it is better to leave these cities and concentrate on kabul,jalalabad and mazar sharif in the north as the taliban are very strong in the surrounding areas of ghazni and kandahar so they leave they leave all the cities in the south and the east to the taliban,after this victory,taliban launch increase their operations in the herat province against the forces of ismail khan and also launch offensive against the forces of mohammad mohaqiq,in the hazara majority areas of uruzgan,ghazni and ghor,as both ismail khan and mohaqiq are iranian supported warlords so they get no support from america and face difficulty in battling taliban,in the north huge number of talibs from the south as well as a large number of fighters from pakistan and middle-east join hekmatyar,s forces attacking jalalabad,for pakistan it is very important to capture the city because the indian consulate in jalalabad is being used to promote,support and equip terrorists in pakistan,so india must be thrown out from this city.a large battle begins at jalalabad and 75% of the cities population leave the city mostly migrating to pakistan and tajikistan,both sides try ruthlessly to maintain their control over the city,americans also do their best this time to stop the taliban from taking over the city,india also starts using it,s air force from the farkhor base in tajikistan.
2017:
pakistan is outraged at the indian use of their air-force,so they turn towards china,after negotiations between china,pakistan and taliban,china agree,s to provide taliban with manpad air defense system(equivalent to stingers) for a short time and even provide funding if the taliban agree not to harbour the uighur militants of xingiang and safeguard china,s interests in afghanistan to which taliban agree,so as soon as the taliban get this,they are able to target the indian aircrafts and to some extent even the american drones.this changes the tide of the jalalabad battle in the favour of taliban,because after the use of the manpads,america and india decrease their air strikes,by april 2017 taliban take control of the jalalabad city,the indian consulate is reduced to rubble and some of the staff that was left behind is brutally murdered, at this point seeing the loses of their soldiers and air force americans decide to withdraw the remaining forces from afghanistan and all the international troops leave by the mid of the year,taliban had already established it,s control in herat,ghazni and uruzgan,ismail khan had retreated with his remaining forces into iran,taliban now launch an offensive towards the province of bamyan in the centre,the province of badghis in the south,the northern provinces of baghlan and kunduz and for the first time towards kabul.
2018:
after the defeat at jalalabad,the afghan army was finished and the soldiers joined the militant groups of their respective ethnicities,NATO was gone and now the battle was directly between taliban and the northern alliance,during the later months taliban had inflicted great damage to the northern alliance in badghis,as the majority of the badghis province is turkmen so after enduring heavy loses,the leader negotiates with the taliban,and after negotians the taliban enter the province without much bloodshed as this also happened during the taliban reign from 1996-2001.in the north mohaqiq,dostum and ahmed zia massaud are able to keep taliban out of their terrotory,but they are facing a large problem in the northern provinces of kunduz and baghlan as they have large pashtun populations which are supportive towards taliban,as far as kabul is concerned,the taliban launch their offensive from two fronts,one from jalalabad,which is controlled now by gulbudin hekmatyar and the other from the city of ghazni,during most of 2018,kabul is repeatedly bombed,the city is reduced to rubble and most of it,s population leave and migrate to the neighbouring countries,but the northern alliance is still able to hold the city of due to strong support coming from russia,india and iran,during this time ismail khan returns with a strong force from iran and take over the herat city,only to be driven out after another taliban offensive,also seeing the resistance of the northern alliance at kabul,pakistan sends units of it,s Frontier Corps and also provides air support to the taliban as americans are no longer there to stop them,this weakens the position of the northern alliance along with more stronger taliban offensives and as a result by the end of the year they retreat from kabul leaving it once again to be ruled by taliban.
2019:
the taliban now rule kabul and they have almost defeated the forces of mohammad mohaqiq and by march 2018,bamiyan falls. the taliban also have weakened the northern alliance at kunduz and baghlan,now the taliban mainly concentrate towards the uzbek provinces as the IMU(Islamic movement of uzbekistan is very strong in some of these provinces and they have created many trouble,s for dostum,s forces in these areas so both taliban and IMU fight unitedly against the northern alliance,and plus china and saudi arabia provide a lot of money to taliban with the help of which they are able to bribe many leaders of the northern alliance,so by the end of the year taliban capture mazar sharif,kunduz and baghlan.dostum fleds to turkey where he is provided asylum.
2020:
now as most of afghanistan is under their control the taliban now concentrate towards panjshir valley which is the defacto capital of the northern afghanistan for now,throughout the war the taliban were unable to capture this city,the northern alliance despite small numbers always paralyzed the taliban at this valley,now the taliban starts gathering a large force which consists of taliban,IMU,Pakistan Frontier Corps,foreign fighters from middle east and pakistan and the former generals of northern alliance which are now allied with the taliban,the offensive begins in may,but the taliban face a very strong resistance,air strikes are also launched in the valley and taliban also bomb this area from kunduz and baghlan,by the end of 2020 panjshir is lost and the remnants of northern alliance surrender,leaders like amarullah saleh,ahmed zia massoud take refuge in usa,europe etc.this marks the end of the 41 years of war in afghanistan.
This is not going to happen and as far as Afghanistan in concerned. Pakistan always thought Afghanistan to be a friend but this is not how the Afghans thought. For a long time Pakistan thought Afghanistan was going to give some sort of depth but in reality this was not possible. There are many factors that contributed towards this. After the pull out of NATO & USA things would not get better within till the joint peace process is possible. Considering the current situation Afghanistan is controlled mostly by local war lord who would try to act as Gangs of New York, leading to a power struggle.
The best defence for Pakistan is to secure her westren border. Yet again the refugee crisis is looming this time it might be much higher as the persons migrating would not be as rich as before. Most of the problems that were faced at the time the Afghan civil war was over will re surface. International funding regarding water, infrastructure, health and safety etc required would be a problem due to the financial conditions the world faces.
..We took 40% Kashmir but they still think it was their victory as they didn't loss whole Kashmir to Pakistan...
