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Future of Iran-China relations
By Mohsen Shariatinia and Ehasn Razani
October 23, 2015
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear program (JCPOA) moved into the implementation phase. With this deal, Iran's relations with the outside world would witness drastic changes in the near future. Iran's relationship with China will be no exception. What are the most important factors affecting the Sino-Iranian relations in the post-sanction era?
The first influential factor in changing ties between Tehran and Beijing would be the transformation of the U.S. role. As a matter of fact, the United States has always been a key determinant in relations between Iran and China. Since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979, the United States has constantly acted as a third player that has negatively affected the Sino-Iranian relations. In the recent decade and with the imposition of sanctions on Iran, the United States played an even more decisive role in deterioration of the Sino-Iranian relations, attempted to limit the extent of Iran-China political and economic links and prevent the deepening of strategic cooperation between the two sides.
The implementation of the JCPOA would reduce one of the key barriers to improving Iran-China relations.The deal made China as a key candidate for peaceful nuclear cooperation with Iran - what that was difficult to imagine during the sanction time. The deal can be even seen as a result of Iran-China-U.S. cooperation. As a matter of fact, it has been the first time in the last 30 years that the three countries have engaged in a strategic initiative. Besides, the JCPOA would likely reduce the U.S. desire to continue its destructive role in the Sino-Iranian relations. The change in the U.S. role would lead Tehran and Beijing to put their relations on a normal, interest-driven, and more stable basis.
The second factor affecting the Sino-Iranian relations is the summit diplomacy. Under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hu Jintao, summit diplomacy did not seem to play a major role in relationships between the two countries. The constructive role of the leaders, however, has increased under Hassan Rouhani and Xi Jinping. The two presidents have met several times and have reached agreements on major issues. Xi's plan to pay a visit to Iran in near future, as the first trip to this country by a Chinese president since a decade ago, can be viewed as an important turning point in bilateral relations. Leaders of both countries have held the same views on issues of the world politics, especially those of the developing nations. With respect to notable role of both the leaders in shaping their countries' foreign policies, summit diplomacy would be of relatively more significance in promoting warmer ties between Iran and China in future.
The implementation of the JCPOA and Iran's greater "freedom of actions" in foreign relations would also make the economic interactions between Tehran and Beijing more complex. Chinese companies, trying to fill the vacuum left by their Western counterparts, have gained growing influence in the Iranian markets during recent years. Needless to say the return of Western and other Asian enterprises could seriously challenge Chinese companies in Iran. The technological capabilities of Chinese companies would also be an important matter in this regard. For instance, while two of the leading Chinese automobile enterprises, Geely and Lifan, have constantly tried to conquer the Iranian market, it comes as no surprise that Geely would be in a better position to gain a more respectable market share in the post-sanction competitive arena.
Furthermore, the Iranian officials have always described China - as well as Russia - as Iran's "strategic partners" saying that "countries which cooperated with Iran under sanctions will be given priority in post-sanction era." In his September meeting with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that China was "Iran's friend in its difficult times." With this in mind, China would continue to be seen by the Iranian leaders as one of the most important partners in Iran's economic diplomacy and especially its post-sanction comprehensive infrastructural development plans.
Moreover, Iran and China have complementary economies. China is Iran's most important investor, its largest import and export market, the major buyer of the Iranian crude oil, as well as the biggest potential customer of its natural gas. These factors together could potentially strengthen the Sino-Iranian relationships over time. Generally speaking, lifting the sanctions, the Sino-Iranian complementary economies, and Tehran-Beijing summit diplomacy would provide important mechanisms to push forward relations between the two countries in future.
Mohsen Shariatinia is a research fellow of the Center for Strategic Research in Tehran, Iran.
Ehsan Razani is member of the School of Law and Politics, Islamic Azad University, Shahrood, Iran
@haman10 , @Serpentine , @Chinese-Dragon , @tranquilium et al.
By Mohsen Shariatinia and Ehasn Razani
October 23, 2015
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear program (JCPOA) moved into the implementation phase. With this deal, Iran's relations with the outside world would witness drastic changes in the near future. Iran's relationship with China will be no exception. What are the most important factors affecting the Sino-Iranian relations in the post-sanction era?
The first influential factor in changing ties between Tehran and Beijing would be the transformation of the U.S. role. As a matter of fact, the United States has always been a key determinant in relations between Iran and China. Since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979, the United States has constantly acted as a third player that has negatively affected the Sino-Iranian relations. In the recent decade and with the imposition of sanctions on Iran, the United States played an even more decisive role in deterioration of the Sino-Iranian relations, attempted to limit the extent of Iran-China political and economic links and prevent the deepening of strategic cooperation between the two sides.
The implementation of the JCPOA would reduce one of the key barriers to improving Iran-China relations.The deal made China as a key candidate for peaceful nuclear cooperation with Iran - what that was difficult to imagine during the sanction time. The deal can be even seen as a result of Iran-China-U.S. cooperation. As a matter of fact, it has been the first time in the last 30 years that the three countries have engaged in a strategic initiative. Besides, the JCPOA would likely reduce the U.S. desire to continue its destructive role in the Sino-Iranian relations. The change in the U.S. role would lead Tehran and Beijing to put their relations on a normal, interest-driven, and more stable basis.
The second factor affecting the Sino-Iranian relations is the summit diplomacy. Under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hu Jintao, summit diplomacy did not seem to play a major role in relationships between the two countries. The constructive role of the leaders, however, has increased under Hassan Rouhani and Xi Jinping. The two presidents have met several times and have reached agreements on major issues. Xi's plan to pay a visit to Iran in near future, as the first trip to this country by a Chinese president since a decade ago, can be viewed as an important turning point in bilateral relations. Leaders of both countries have held the same views on issues of the world politics, especially those of the developing nations. With respect to notable role of both the leaders in shaping their countries' foreign policies, summit diplomacy would be of relatively more significance in promoting warmer ties between Iran and China in future.
The implementation of the JCPOA and Iran's greater "freedom of actions" in foreign relations would also make the economic interactions between Tehran and Beijing more complex. Chinese companies, trying to fill the vacuum left by their Western counterparts, have gained growing influence in the Iranian markets during recent years. Needless to say the return of Western and other Asian enterprises could seriously challenge Chinese companies in Iran. The technological capabilities of Chinese companies would also be an important matter in this regard. For instance, while two of the leading Chinese automobile enterprises, Geely and Lifan, have constantly tried to conquer the Iranian market, it comes as no surprise that Geely would be in a better position to gain a more respectable market share in the post-sanction competitive arena.
Furthermore, the Iranian officials have always described China - as well as Russia - as Iran's "strategic partners" saying that "countries which cooperated with Iran under sanctions will be given priority in post-sanction era." In his September meeting with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that China was "Iran's friend in its difficult times." With this in mind, China would continue to be seen by the Iranian leaders as one of the most important partners in Iran's economic diplomacy and especially its post-sanction comprehensive infrastructural development plans.
Moreover, Iran and China have complementary economies. China is Iran's most important investor, its largest import and export market, the major buyer of the Iranian crude oil, as well as the biggest potential customer of its natural gas. These factors together could potentially strengthen the Sino-Iranian relationships over time. Generally speaking, lifting the sanctions, the Sino-Iranian complementary economies, and Tehran-Beijing summit diplomacy would provide important mechanisms to push forward relations between the two countries in future.
Mohsen Shariatinia is a research fellow of the Center for Strategic Research in Tehran, Iran.
Ehsan Razani is member of the School of Law and Politics, Islamic Azad University, Shahrood, Iran
@haman10 , @Serpentine , @Chinese-Dragon , @tranquilium et al.
