Hi Guys,
Though this is an old post of May 23 in DAWN but it seems Kamran Ahmed had some super wild thoughts floating around:
Do not read the whole thing I have highlighted the WORD
The water bomb
By Kamran Ahmed
Sunday, 23 May, 2010 | 01
Nobody except few experts anticipated that the disaster of January 4th, 2010 would turn Gojal valley into a water bomb. Gojal is a valley situated in upper Hunza with a population of twenty five thousand scattered over small village settlements. The Karakoram Highway is the only route connecting Pakistan to China. KKH runs through Gojal into the Xinjiang province which makes Gojal an important asset to both Pakistan and China.
It was in the afternoon when a movement of terrain resulted in collapse of a massive segment of a mountain as an enormous landslide in an Abottabad village between Gojal and lower Hunza. The disaster resulted in deaths of twenty people and destroyed two villages completely. The collapsed mountain completely destroyed 2 km of the KKH.
The story however did not end here. The river amplified day by day and taking the contours of a deadly dam started moving upstream. Ayeenabad was the first village that fell prey to the river and submerged completely; houses, properties and plants of the people were consumed by the river. Second victim on the bank of the deadly river was Shishket village. As spring approached, water flow from surrounding glaciers and GLOFs (glacial lake outburst floods) raised the river even to a more dangerous level and a major part of Shishket was submerged. The longest bridge on the KKH situated between Shishket and Gulmit also immersed rendering strategic and monetary loss to Pakistan. So far eighty houses of Ayeenabad and Shishket have been submerged leaving the people as helpless IDPs.
Next was Gulmit village, the tehsil headquarter and largest settlement of Gojal valley. Meanwhile the river has risen to the bed of Gulmit submerging the houses and properties of Saeed Jan, a resident of Gulmit. Five kilometers of the KKH has also been submerged by the river so far which has now turned into one of the largest artificial lakes of the world; 20 kilometers in length 330 feet depth. National and international experts say that the artificial lake has maximum chances of outburst while the report offered by Professor David Petley of the International Landslide Centre at Durham University undoubtedly affirmed that there was a substantive risk of water outburst as a large flood wave may travel downstream as far as Tarbela Dam, 50 kilometers northwest of Islamabad.
The outburst is most likely when water travels across the spillway. However, such an event can be set off by a range of other processes, some of which may provide little warning.
The rising water levels are slowly but steadily causing damage to the infrastructure and endangering the downstream population destroying several villages.
In case of outburst of the deadly artificial lake, the consequences would be devastating for the downstream population right up to Tarbela Dam and settlements from Hunza Nager down to Hazara division.
The point to note is that the KKH and the river run parallel from Khunjerab down to Hazara. In case of outburst the KKH is feared to be obstructed and bridges on the KKH would be severely damaged. The worst case scenario would leave Pakistan completely disconnected through land route from China. With the KKH obstructed and the bridges damaged or collapsed, the settlements of Gojal would lose communication with Pakistan leading to food insecurity, health issues and economic slump on the local level.
As days pass and the weather becomes warmer and warmer at Gojal, the glaciers melt rapidly and frequency of GLOFs increase, the water bomb becomes more and more perilous.
Some local experts are of the opinion that early use of powerful water pumps to ejaculate
the water at the blockade site and subsequent start of work to make spill way across the debris could have saved Gojal from turning into a water bomb. As the situation deteriorates, the people are left in psychological trauma as they see their houses, properties, crops and plants getting submerged. Desperately they wonder why the authorities declared the disaster a minor issue in the first place. After outburst of the lake, will the people of Gojal survive along with remnants of their properties or would it be a desperate battle for survival?
As this goes to print 36 villages have been evacuated as water level touches the spillway. The authorities ignored the first disastrous episode and now watch the stupendous water bomb with consternation.
FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance which carries out regular disaster mitigation, geological survey and hazard measurement especially in the mountainous areas of Gilgit Baltistan in its report of 2006 identified a high risk of terrain movement and potential disaster but no preventive measures have been taken. FOCUS set up an early-warning system to alert villagers downstream in case the dam bursts.
Questions like Who is responsible for the one month delay in making a spill way?, Will a judicial enquiry begin?, Why were nt NGOs allowed to provide relief to people?, Would there be compensation for loss? remain unanswered.
Though this is an old post of May 23 in DAWN but it seems Kamran Ahmed had some super wild thoughts floating around:
Do not read the whole thing I have highlighted the WORD
The water bomb
By Kamran Ahmed
Sunday, 23 May, 2010 | 01
Nobody except few experts anticipated that the disaster of January 4th, 2010 would turn Gojal valley into a water bomb. Gojal is a valley situated in upper Hunza with a population of twenty five thousand scattered over small village settlements. The Karakoram Highway is the only route connecting Pakistan to China. KKH runs through Gojal into the Xinjiang province which makes Gojal an important asset to both Pakistan and China.
It was in the afternoon when a movement of terrain resulted in collapse of a massive segment of a mountain as an enormous landslide in an Abottabad village between Gojal and lower Hunza. The disaster resulted in deaths of twenty people and destroyed two villages completely. The collapsed mountain completely destroyed 2 km of the KKH.
The story however did not end here. The river amplified day by day and taking the contours of a deadly dam started moving upstream. Ayeenabad was the first village that fell prey to the river and submerged completely; houses, properties and plants of the people were consumed by the river. Second victim on the bank of the deadly river was Shishket village. As spring approached, water flow from surrounding glaciers and GLOFs (glacial lake outburst floods) raised the river even to a more dangerous level and a major part of Shishket was submerged. The longest bridge on the KKH situated between Shishket and Gulmit also immersed rendering strategic and monetary loss to Pakistan. So far eighty houses of Ayeenabad and Shishket have been submerged leaving the people as helpless IDPs.
Next was Gulmit village, the tehsil headquarter and largest settlement of Gojal valley. Meanwhile the river has risen to the bed of Gulmit submerging the houses and properties of Saeed Jan, a resident of Gulmit. Five kilometers of the KKH has also been submerged by the river so far which has now turned into one of the largest artificial lakes of the world; 20 kilometers in length 330 feet depth. National and international experts say that the artificial lake has maximum chances of outburst while the report offered by Professor David Petley of the International Landslide Centre at Durham University undoubtedly affirmed that there was a substantive risk of water outburst as a large flood wave may travel downstream as far as Tarbela Dam, 50 kilometers northwest of Islamabad.
The outburst is most likely when water travels across the spillway. However, such an event can be set off by a range of other processes, some of which may provide little warning.
The rising water levels are slowly but steadily causing damage to the infrastructure and endangering the downstream population destroying several villages.
In case of outburst of the deadly artificial lake, the consequences would be devastating for the downstream population right up to Tarbela Dam and settlements from Hunza Nager down to Hazara division.
The point to note is that the KKH and the river run parallel from Khunjerab down to Hazara. In case of outburst the KKH is feared to be obstructed and bridges on the KKH would be severely damaged. The worst case scenario would leave Pakistan completely disconnected through land route from China. With the KKH obstructed and the bridges damaged or collapsed, the settlements of Gojal would lose communication with Pakistan leading to food insecurity, health issues and economic slump on the local level.
As days pass and the weather becomes warmer and warmer at Gojal, the glaciers melt rapidly and frequency of GLOFs increase, the water bomb becomes more and more perilous.
Some local experts are of the opinion that early use of powerful water pumps to ejaculate
the water at the blockade site and subsequent start of work to make spill way across the debris could have saved Gojal from turning into a water bomb. As the situation deteriorates, the people are left in psychological trauma as they see their houses, properties, crops and plants getting submerged. Desperately they wonder why the authorities declared the disaster a minor issue in the first place. After outburst of the lake, will the people of Gojal survive along with remnants of their properties or would it be a desperate battle for survival?As this goes to print 36 villages have been evacuated as water level touches the spillway. The authorities ignored the first disastrous episode and now watch the stupendous water bomb with consternation.
FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance which carries out regular disaster mitigation, geological survey and hazard measurement especially in the mountainous areas of Gilgit Baltistan in its report of 2006 identified a high risk of terrain movement and potential disaster but no preventive measures have been taken. FOCUS set up an early-warning system to alert villagers downstream in case the dam bursts.
Questions like Who is responsible for the one month delay in making a spill way?, Will a judicial enquiry begin?, Why were nt NGOs allowed to provide relief to people?, Would there be compensation for loss? remain unanswered.
