Friendly Fire Incident Or a major plot?

[Sina-1]

In more than 40 years we have not suffered major friendly fire accidents. In 2020 we already have a second major case. I am not totally convinced that this is not some kind of a plot.

Just think about this for a second. What is the best way to topple IRI? It sure isn't sanctions or war. These "accidents" that just keep appearing are the most effective way to undermine IRI and spark a coup or revolution of some sort. Smells like the 53 CIA coup but much more advanced!

 

[Sina-1]

I somewhat share the same sentiment but I think we should open up another thread about it and share thoughts about it there Sina-1. We can have a more concise conversation without derailing this thread and diverting attention away from this horrible tragedy...

Completely agree!

Two friendly fires in 42 years.

And just happens to be during the year when Haj Soleymani got murdered and the orange is preparing for a second term. Coincidence much?

 

[Sina-1]

To me they look like incidents.

Yes, that's the whole point. They should look like incidents. Just like with the 53 coup nobody knew that it was CIA orchestrated at the time. People got brainwashed and toppled the democratically elected official.

Also i'm not saying that the incidents that have happened this year is a proof of a plot. What I am pointing to is the convenient nature of these incidents for Iran's adversaries. Just so happens to be, these incidents are much heavier blow to Iran than ANYTHING USA or Israel have done previously. Simply put, we cannot overrule the possibility of a plot.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Wrong we have many friendly fire before it.

 

[Blue In Green]

Completely agree!



And just happens to be during the year when Haj Soleymani got murdered and the orange is preparing for a second term. Coincidence much?

Personally I feel like there are multiple reasons why Iran is experiencing such horrible friendly-fire and accidental shoot downs events in recent times. Some reasons are logical and self-explanatory, some others are more insidious and dangerous but we can list them and expand upon them.

There could genuinely be issues with safety protocols. I don't think it's too far out to assume or think that the Iranian armed forces have problems with some regulations that can be causing such unfortunate events to occur. There might be rules/mechanism currently in-place that allow for the firing of a cruise-missile to happen whilst ships are out there at sea within the firing zone unbeknownst to other forces in the area. It could also be that communications between all participating vessels wasn't as up-to-date and adequate so the ship firing the missile thought that the ship which got hit was out of the kill-zone so they fired thinking everything was reasonably safe.

Needless to say there does need to be an internal-review regarding the safety mechanisms, coordination and professionalism of the Iranian armed forces.

Internal espionage campaign being ran by Israel and America. There really isn't anything far-fetched about this idea either. From an historical and factual point-of-view, we know that both Israel and America has had and currently has spies/saboteurs embedded within Iranian society and possibly within the Iranian armed forces as well.

The shooting down of the Ukrainian Civilian air-liner, and now this devastating friendly-fire incident can possibly be attributed to double-agents or inside-actors sympathetic to Israel and America trying to undermine Iran's standing in the region by showing it off to be some sort of unprofessional force that is reckless and needs to be reigned in. But my gut feeling is more towards a serious lack of professionalism/training that are causing such incidents to occur.

What we can say though without a shadow of a doubt is that Iran really, really, really needs to start taking its own safety/rules/protocols more seriously and up the level of military professionalism across the board. We really need to see some of these IRGC units or Artesh units clamp down on any-sort of sub-par behavior effectively getting rid of any old methods that are causing such a lack in safety and implementing new ones.

Personally speaking, I cannot sit here all day and make up excuses for Iran over every incident like this. Sometimes we might just have to face to music (As we Americans say) and call a spade a spade.

 

[Sage]

In more than 40 years we have not suffered major friendly fire accidents. In 2020 we already have a second major case. I am not totally convinced that this is not some kind of a plot.

Just think about this for a second. What is the best way to topple IRI? It sure isn't sanctions or war. These "accidents" that just keep appearing are the most effective way to undermine IRI and spark a coup or revolution of some sort. Smells like the 53 CIA coup but much more advanced!

Which incident are you referring to ?

 

[Surenas]

I think we can safely dismiss this theory of sabotage, simply because the Iranian government itself has taken responsibility and in no way has hinted at a plot. If there would have been the slightest suspicion of external intervention, we would have already heard about this by now.

In cases like this, always go for the simplest explantation. That is, a combination of high pressure + stress due to all the tensions and faulty safety standards that have plagued Iran's military for quite some time now.

 

[Smarana Mitra]

Yes, that's the whole point. They should look like incidents. Just like with the 53 coup nobody knew that it was CIA orchestrated at the time. People got brainwashed and toppled the democratically elected official.

Also i'm not saying that the incidents that have happened this year is a proof of a plot. What I am pointing to is the convenient nature of these incidents for Iran's adversaries. Just so happens to be, these incidents are much heavier blow to Iran than ANYTHING USA or Israel have done previously. Simply put, we cannot overrule the possibility of a plot.

In 1953, Iran was constitutional monarchy and Shah was the king. So, it was not a coup but simply bringing back the monarchy without elections. But the Shah was a weak person and had to take assistance from CIA for that and henceforth became USA stooge. Nevertheless, you can't call it as a coup as the Shah was the king at that time and he got the power, not some army general

 

[Sina-1]

In cases like this, always go for the simplest explantation. That is, a combination of high pressure + stress due to all the tensions and faulty safety standards that have plagued Iran's military for quite some time now.

The notion of simplest explanation automatically being the correct one is flawed when the hypothesis is that the incidents are designed to look like human-error "accidents".

All I am saying is that if I was in charge to topple IRI. This is exactly what I would do:

Internal espionage campaign being ran by Israel and America. There really isn't anything far-fetched about this idea either. From an historical and factual point-of-view, we know that both Israel and America has had and currently has spies/saboteurs embedded within Iranian society and possibly within the Iranian armed forces as well.

The shooting down of the Ukrainian Civilian air-liner, and now this devastating friendly-fire incident can possibly be attributed to double-agents or inside-actors sympathetic to Israel and America trying to undermine Iran's standing in the region by showing it off to be some sort of unprofessional force that is reckless and needs to be reigned in.

Again, I am not calling the incident to be a plot simply because they are highly beneficiary for Irans adversaries. However, I am saying that it is definitely a possibility simply because they have most to gain and initiating such acts would be much cheaper that direct conflict with Iran.

 

[aryobarzan]

I blame all these unfortunate events on the fast pace of development and high tempo of operations in Iran..When a country such as Iran moves at this incredible speed toward full industrialization and dominance of middle east region and is doing that while swimming in an ocean of hostility it is not so unusual events. Just look at the speed by which this country is developing various weapon systems from scratch . Operational procedures, safety procedures and training are all elements that get pushed back when you are facing immanent threats such as Iran is... so yes that is the price a country has to pay to get up there with the giants...

 

[Philosopher]

Nothing gives you experience like that that gained through hardship. The most powerful military, i.e US has made such mistakes plenty of times and learned from it. These are all learning experiences for Iran. Other nations are not making such errors because their militaries are not in a constant state of war footing and always performing war games et cetra. These tragedies become vastly more likely when you consider the mentioned factors.

 

[Mithridates]

some say the IFF antenna of missile didn't work.

 

[TheImmortal]

I blame all these unfortunate events on the fast pace of development and high tempo of operations in Iran..When a country such as Iran moves at this incredible speed toward full industrialization and dominance of middle east region and is doing that while swimming in an ocean of hostility it is not so unusual events. Just look at the speed by which this country is developing various weapon systems from scratch . Operational procedures, safety procedures and training are all elements that get pushed back when you are facing immanent threats such as Iran is... so yes that is the price a country has to pay to get up there with the giants...

Iran has had anti ship missiles for over 50 years. And the Noor has been in service since early 00’s.

So let’s not make excuses for gross incompetence by saying it’s because Iran is advancing so fast. Iran fired a decades old cruise missile design not a Futuristic rail gun that it didn’t know it’s capability.

The sad fact is Iran is still a 2nd or even 3rd world country and thus risk procedures are largely underdeveloped that you find in corresponding 1st world militaries.

Accidents happen even in US with overregulation. However, the two types of accidents have suffered this year reveal gross incompetence and not mere learning lesson accidents. Similar to US billion dollar destroyers colliding with massive freight tankers the size of multiple football fields. Simply no excuse for that type of accident.

There are Unavoidable accidents that happen and then there is gross incompetence. Both of Iran’s incidents fall in later category.

 

[Shawnee]

Those who design military exercise know the more realistic you make it, the riskier it gets.

Do you want to design a military exercise which is like a cake or something realistic.

شبهای برره و جکهای شکست از دشمن فرضی مال عوامه چون توی مانور خوب کشته هست. رژه که نیست

A parade will not teach us anything.

They all martyred for an excellent cause. Keep it going. Learn from your mistakes.

 

[QWECXZ]

Iran has had anti ship missiles for over 50 years. And the Noor has been in service since early 00’s.

So let’s not make excuses for gross incompetence by saying it’s because Iran is advancing so fast. Iran fired a decades old cruise missile design not a Futuristic rail gun that it didn’t know it’s capability.

The sad fact is Iran is still a 2nd or even 3rd world country and thus risk procedures are largely underdeveloped that you find in corresponding 1st world militaries.

Accidents happen even in US with overregulation. However, the two types of accidents have suffered this year reveal gross incompetence and not mere learning lesson accidents. Similar to US billion dollar destroyers colliding with massive freight tankers the size of multiple football fields. Simply no excuse for that type of accident.

There are Unavoidable accidents that happen and then there is gross incompetence. Both of Iran’s incidents fall in later category.

There is no such thing as the "2nd" world. The term 3rd world comes from the cold war era when the world was split between two super powers at the time: the United States and the Soviet Union. Any country that didn't have a direct partnership with them was labeled as the 3rd world, similar to the term 3rd parties in contracts.

Sine most of these countries had no strategic value and prosperity, the term third world started to have negative connotations. But there is no such categorization as 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or n-th world.

As for the topic, I think the possibility of sabotage should not be ignored.