Holy crap!!! Haven't seen you here for a while - if you've been around I must have missed it
! I do agree with your sentiment though, the TTP will most likely happen, and if it doesn't something similar will take its place. Like the F-35, too many nations are invested in the TTP to see it fail into obscurity or have it watered down to the point that is is comparable with normal trade. Too much money, too much time, too many nations, you can't let a project like that fail to materialize.
I do have one problem with it though. As always, adding more and more voices has compromised the ease at which the project can be implemented. It's a high-risk, higher-reward type system. You let more nations have a say, more wrenches to throw into the negotiations and the result is the lag we see, but if it all can be pulled off the benefits are very, very strong.
With the Asia-Pacific being the engine of growth for much of the time going forwards, this is an investment that is worth the wait, though we can't and wont wait forever. Japan, for all its bickering and issues with the negotiations, needs this. It just can't afford to let the opportunity slip away. This will benefit all involved nations greatly and open a new door for US-Asian cooperation and relations. This is our Maritime Silk Road - to use a Chinese term, especially as Europe falters and Africa and South America go through some growing pains, but I hope that it isn't and doesn't become a new form of competition with China, rather, perhaps it can be used to entice them into a better relation with their region in return for more favorable trade ties. Sure beats the massive tariffs we already slap on their goods.
Their participation might not be possible, or wanted right now, but I would be in favor of China joining the partnership once negotiations are concluded. Right now there are too many voices and too much time being used to negotiate, we just don't need another voice right now. Perhaps in the future, but not at the moment.
Hope it gets done this year.
@Nihonjin1051 - I have only two things to say. 1. nice article
. 2. I'm all for the TTP!