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Former PM will battle Juppé in next vote to be candidate of right, writes Tony Barber
Tony Barber
The man of the hour in French politics is François Fillon. On Sunday, the 62-year-old conservative Catholic, who served as prime minister from 2007 to 2012, rewrote the script of France’s 2017 presidential election by cruising to victory in the first round of primaries to pick the centre-right’s candidate. Mr Fillon will now face Alain Juppé, another former premier, more centrist in his views, in the Republicans party’s second run-off round next Sunday after the concession of Nicolas Sarkozy.
A Fillon-Juppé contest will be closely fought. However, before the first round, the pollsters OpinionWay published a survey suggesting that Mr Fillon would defeat Mr Juppé by 54 to 46 per cent. In the space of a few weeks, Mr Fillon has transformed himself from an also-ran whose political views seemed irrelevant to France’s future to a formidable campaigner who has possibly the best chance to enter the Elysée Palace as the next president.
The French left is unpopular and in disarray, so it is generally assumed that the winning centre-right candidate will confront Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front in the second round of the presidential election next May. In other words, to avoid a political earthquake similar to Britain’s vote in June to exit the EU and Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory, France needs its best qualified, most trustworthy centre-right politician to keep out Ms Le Pen.
The first-round results appeared to show French voters do not think Mr Sarkozy fits that role. True, it seems that a sizeable number of leftwing and far-right voters took part in the primary, eager to sabotage Mr Sarkozy’s chances. In a deeper sense, however, Mr Sarkozy was damaged goods because of his volatile personality, the whiff of alleged corruption scandals around him and memories of his uninspiring record as president between 2007 and 2012.
The next French president will have to take on the revival of the crisis-torn EU — a project badly rattled by Brexit — as well as Europe’s refugee and migrant emergency, terror attacks and the eurozone’s chronic troubles. How successfully might Mr Fillon or Mr Juppé tackle France’s challenges?
Mr Fillon takes a hard line against Islamist terrorism, having published a book with the title Beating Islamic Totalitarianism. He favours a diplomatic rapprochement with Russia. On economic matters he advocates pro-business reforms, such as tax cuts and a less rigid labour market, plus cuts to the welfare state and the civil service. Like Mr Sarkozy, whom he served as premier, Mr Fillion is vulnerable to the charge that during his five years in power, he made no discernible progress in reforming France’s economy.
Mr Juppé is a more soothing personality who emphasises the need to heal France’s divisions over Islam and national identity. His economic policy proposals are less ideologically free-market than Mr Fillon’s, but he too wants to lower taxes and curb public expenditure. At the age of 71, he is open to the criticism that he has spent his entire career as part of a political elite that has failed to get to grips with the nation’s troubles.
For either candidate, the challenge in next year’s election is that millions of financially hard-pressed voters may not want to hear the message of economic reform, belt-tightening and a slimmed-down welfare state that the centre-right has embraced in the primaries. Although not far-right in their political sympathies, many of these voters could turn to Ms Le Pen, whose anti-establishment status may prove an advantage. The task of either Mr Fillon or Mr Juppé may be to persuade these voters that their bold reforms are the right way forward for France.
https://www.ft.com/content/2bbff644-af60-11e6-9c37-5787335499a0
Tony Barber
The man of the hour in French politics is François Fillon. On Sunday, the 62-year-old conservative Catholic, who served as prime minister from 2007 to 2012, rewrote the script of France’s 2017 presidential election by cruising to victory in the first round of primaries to pick the centre-right’s candidate. Mr Fillon will now face Alain Juppé, another former premier, more centrist in his views, in the Republicans party’s second run-off round next Sunday after the concession of Nicolas Sarkozy.
A Fillon-Juppé contest will be closely fought. However, before the first round, the pollsters OpinionWay published a survey suggesting that Mr Fillon would defeat Mr Juppé by 54 to 46 per cent. In the space of a few weeks, Mr Fillon has transformed himself from an also-ran whose political views seemed irrelevant to France’s future to a formidable campaigner who has possibly the best chance to enter the Elysée Palace as the next president.
The French left is unpopular and in disarray, so it is generally assumed that the winning centre-right candidate will confront Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front in the second round of the presidential election next May. In other words, to avoid a political earthquake similar to Britain’s vote in June to exit the EU and Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory, France needs its best qualified, most trustworthy centre-right politician to keep out Ms Le Pen.
The first-round results appeared to show French voters do not think Mr Sarkozy fits that role. True, it seems that a sizeable number of leftwing and far-right voters took part in the primary, eager to sabotage Mr Sarkozy’s chances. In a deeper sense, however, Mr Sarkozy was damaged goods because of his volatile personality, the whiff of alleged corruption scandals around him and memories of his uninspiring record as president between 2007 and 2012.
The next French president will have to take on the revival of the crisis-torn EU — a project badly rattled by Brexit — as well as Europe’s refugee and migrant emergency, terror attacks and the eurozone’s chronic troubles. How successfully might Mr Fillon or Mr Juppé tackle France’s challenges?
Mr Fillon takes a hard line against Islamist terrorism, having published a book with the title Beating Islamic Totalitarianism. He favours a diplomatic rapprochement with Russia. On economic matters he advocates pro-business reforms, such as tax cuts and a less rigid labour market, plus cuts to the welfare state and the civil service. Like Mr Sarkozy, whom he served as premier, Mr Fillion is vulnerable to the charge that during his five years in power, he made no discernible progress in reforming France’s economy.
Mr Juppé is a more soothing personality who emphasises the need to heal France’s divisions over Islam and national identity. His economic policy proposals are less ideologically free-market than Mr Fillon’s, but he too wants to lower taxes and curb public expenditure. At the age of 71, he is open to the criticism that he has spent his entire career as part of a political elite that has failed to get to grips with the nation’s troubles.
For either candidate, the challenge in next year’s election is that millions of financially hard-pressed voters may not want to hear the message of economic reform, belt-tightening and a slimmed-down welfare state that the centre-right has embraced in the primaries. Although not far-right in their political sympathies, many of these voters could turn to Ms Le Pen, whose anti-establishment status may prove an advantage. The task of either Mr Fillon or Mr Juppé may be to persuade these voters that their bold reforms are the right way forward for France.
https://www.ft.com/content/2bbff644-af60-11e6-9c37-5787335499a0
