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Fate of TTP after 2014, my analysis

What could be future role of Haqqani network, the most powerful organization of talibans in Af-Pak, operating against NATO in Afghanistan. Has good relations with all factions of talibans, including TTP and foriegn militants like IMU, arab, chechen and others. Has also very good relations with ISI...these guys are populer and respected among common pakhtuns, when their commander iftikhar, from my home town, got killed in drone in N.waziristan, his funeral was attended by thousands in lakki marwat, largest ever seen in the area and people were calling him a great martyr..his funeral was also attended by representatives of political parties like Muslim league-N. To get better understanding of this group read this article, Haqqani network: Chasing the shadows - Rediff.com India News
Pakistan should request haqqanis to play their role in making successful peace talks of Pak army with TTP.
 
@Pak-one

Factually wrong article with bogus claims and figures. Lets start by your rant about East Pakistan. There was no 8 day war nor 90000 Pak army soldiers to start with. Total number of Pak forces never exceeded 45000 in East Pakistan, and that include army, police and para-military forces also. The army was in bitter guerrilla fight from 25th march, 1971. On 21st November, Indian forces attacked East Pakistan, after Indira Gandhi's ultimatum ended. On 3rd December, war on western front was also started. Somehow, Indians always blame Pakistan for starting 1971 war, and count the days from 3rd dec-16 dec 1971. It wasn't 8 days, it was 8 months and 21 days war to be exact.

TTP is not an organization driven by some ideology like for example Hamas or PLO has. It mainly started by left over militants, who after 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan went there for Jihad. Many of them ended slaughtered on the roads of Kabul, when Northern alliance took over, rest either died in containers or Guantanamo bay or are still in Bagram jail.

Its all about money, nothing more nothing less. We all know what the economy of tribal belt is. Smuggling, narcotics, illegal weapons. Stolen cars form Pakistan ends up in that lawless land. Rich persons from settled area kidnapped and taken there for ransom. When OBL along-with his million dollars seek refuge in tribal belt, every tribal malik's eyes would have been popped out with greed. Many groups or factions formed but Nek Mohammad of Mehsud tribe took the lead. An ambitious man in early 20's having little madrasa education. He got fame, money, power and above all hundreds of Uzbek fighters. The first thing the TTP does was a simple strategy. They started killing tribal elders one by one. The Jirgah system collapsed as many times such gatherings were targeted by suicide bombers. Killing of malicks created vacuum, which ensured rise of TTP on fast track.

If you know so much of Pashtuns then you must are familiar with a simple rule of tribes. Blood for blood. Can you accept the argument that on one side TTP killing other tribal elders and taking on lucrative share of illicit money all by themselves and other Tribes will just stay idol doing nothing at all? No dear, what happened that Tribes formed their own militias. And thats how the story went on. What faction did what and what ISI role is. This is another long story. Off-course in such situations there are maneuvers and ISI is no exception. Like any other spy agency of the world, it has also its share of successes and failures.

A famous quote about spy agencies "Their failures are known but their successes dont"

There were also many miscalculations on Pakistani establishment part also.

But going further into that part, let me highlight an other thing. There is not just ISI operating there, dozens of spy agencies of world are there. Huge money is involved and stakes are high for everyone.

TTP rise was boosted when it formed alliances with banned Pakistani organizations like LeJ and JeM. This gave them 2 benefits. First of all for the first time they were able to bring terrorism inside mainland Pakistan and secondly they started getting unlimited supply of brainwashed militants, who were trained in highly radical sectarian environment. The suicide attacks in mainland Pakistan against common civilians or other sects are carried out mainly by LeJ. By alliance with LeJ, TTP also got sympathies from main Deoband school of thought parties. This alliance also formed the basis of Lal mosque incident and some how rise of TTP Swat. This alliance also benefited TTP establishing a grip in Karachi. In Karachi any person having balls and a 9mm pistol can collect bhatta easily. TTP started that business there in 2008, now finances for terror operations is no problem for them. Loot a bank and there you go, money for a suicide attack is there.

The biggest help TTP received was when Ex-PA personnel like Ilyas Kashmiri, Major Haroon, Doctor Usman, Omer Rasheed and many more join the ranks of TTP. With their help TTP was able to launch high profile attacks against Pakistani military.
I have read somewhere that a simple suicide jacket cost around 6 lac. A minor suicide attacker is sold within these organizations at around 15 lac. A car bomb cost round about a crore. A major truck bomb like that targeted ISI building in Lahore fall somewhere between 3-5 crores. Major operations like attack against PNS Mehran goes into hundred of million rupees. Other then that arming and feeding and maintaining large militant force like TTP has is not a joke. Sure they are getting help from outside in a big way. After 2014, you will see break ups in their ranks as foreign investors get out. TTP will try it best to remain in lime light, for that they will try to attack any thing which ensure them to remain in news.

Ever wonder, why militant organizations claim responsibility of attacks? Is becoz it make them a star among the groups. Its make you worthwhile for agencies like RAW or CIA to invest in. Everyone bets on winning horses. TTP knows very well that they will get money only when their patrons feel that it can get the job done. After 2014, the flow of money look scarce. Thats why TTP is suddenly getting interested in Tirah valley (poppy fields) and Karachi (share of billions of rupees bhatta).

Have you ever bread a Rottweiler. Its the most powerful of dog breed. The person who keeps it have to bear the NAKHRAS of this dog also. You dont feed him he will attack you. TTP know it very well. It dont pay the money to militants it has on payroll, its dead.
 
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Good analysis @Rajput_Pakistani but why you think it is all about money, nothing else nothing more?...we can also say that they are driven by an ideology but they need huge amount of money to carry on their battles. For that they rely on kidnapping for ransoms (mostly) and poppy fields...we dont know whether they are financed by foriegn agencies or not...it is a conspiracy theory..if it was all about money, then they could have made lot of money through just smuggling, kidnapping for ransoms, poppy fields without any need of having violent and bloody war with Pak army....in my opinion they are the type who are focused on their goals and results and are trying achieve it by hook or by crook.
And all hamas doing was attacking innocent israeli citizens through suicide bombings, these arabs were the ones to introduce culture of suicide bombings into talibans.
 
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Good analysis @Rajput_Pakistani but why you think it is all about money, nothing else nothing more?...we can also say that they are driven by an ideology but they need huge amount of money to carry on their battles. For that they rely on kidnapping for ransoms (mostly) and poppy fields...we dont know whether they are financed by foriegn agencies or not...it is a conspiracy theory..if it was all about money, then they could have made lot of money through just smuggling, kidnapping for ransoms, poppy fields without any need of having violent and bloody war with Pak army....in my opinion they are the type who are focused on their goals and results and are trying achieve it by hook or by crook.
And all hamas doing was attacking innocent israeli citizens through suicide bombings, these arabs were the ones to introduce culture of suicide bombings into talibans.

On issue of Hamas or Palestine your thoughts and mine are totally opposite. It ain't the right thread to discuss that. Suicide bombing as far as i remember were introduce by Tamil Tigers not Palestinians.
Fight of TTP with Pakistani establishment stems from two facts:
1. Even before 9/11 there was strong urge in Pakistani higher-ups to convert B & C areas of both FATA and Balochistan into "A" areas. Because all organized criminals found refuge in these areas back then. Famous LeJ terrorist Riaz Basra, who is blamed for many high profile target killings of Shias including Iranian diplomat in 1990, also used to slip into these lawless lands.
2. In 2002, for the very first time Parliamentarians from FATA were elected into National assembly. How can smuggling and other unlawful activities continue with ease, when normal system come into force?

Yes, i do agree that LeJ and JeM like organization have powerful ideology. There strength is based on strong hate for Shias. Some how that sectarian violence has align its objective with TTP.
 
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Good analysis @Rajput_Pakistani but why you think it is all about money, nothing else nothing more?...we can also say that they are driven by an ideology but they need huge amount of money to carry on their battles. For that they rely on kidnapping for ransoms (mostly) and poppy fields...we dont know whether they are financed by foriegn agencies or not...it is a conspiracy theory..if it was all about money, then they could have made lot of money through just smuggling, kidnapping for ransoms, poppy fields without any need of having violent and bloody war with Pak army....in my opinion they are the type who are focused on their goals and results and are trying achieve it by hook or by crook.
And all hamas doing was attacking innocent israeli citizens through suicide bombings, these arabs were the ones to introduce culture of suicide bombings into talibans.


Pak army officers are fighting for their country. Young captains and senior colonels are all in it for the long haul.
Ordinary soldiers have been loyal as heck. So anyone saying Taliban are more motivated, then they do not know from A to Z of the stuff going in the tribal belt.

ANP is fighting a heroic war and my hats are off to them.

In summary, TTP is the biggest threat to progress and prosperity of Pashtuns in the near future.

A true Pashtun can never glorify them, knowing fully well what they have done to the mothers and daughters, elderly fathers, and little babies of Pashutns.

peace
 
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I have stated earlier that beating the Taliban is not merely going to be done with the use of brute force. The FCR has to be repealed, roads need to be built, employment has to be provided to the tribesmen and schools and colleges should open up. But when you head to FATA its like you are in another country. The infrastructure does not even exist.

I disagree that the main source of the problem is the ISI here as Luffy claims. ISI has become a scapegoat for anything that goes wrong in the country. The real people who make decisions are politicians. They should answer why they did not order the army to clear Hakimullah Mehsuds bastion in Ladha.
 
We also have to stop making FATA off-limits to civilization. The terrorists can be destroyed better by economic development and spurious growth. We can win this war if we want but it seems we lack the will to win it. Instead security forces chase innocent people. Even a man from Dir was arrested in Swat just for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. These attrocities need to end if Pakistan is to have a strong police force and LEA's.

The Taliban need to be ended permanently. Defeating them is the hard part because economic development has to come with use of force against militants. FATA should be fully developed.
 
I would have responded if this thread didn't include the ethnic color.
 
What could be future role of Haqqani network, the most powerful organization of talibans in Af-Pak, operating against NATO in Afghanistan. Has good relations with all factions of talibans, including TTP and foriegn militants like IMU, arab, chechen and others. Has also very good relations with ISI...these guys are populer and respected among common pakhtuns, when their commander iftikhar, from my home town, got killed in drone in N.waziristan, his funeral was attended by thousands in lakki marwat, largest ever seen in the area and people were calling him a great martyr..his funeral was also attended by representatives of political parties like Muslim league-N. To get better understanding of this group read this article, Haqqani network: Chasing the shadows - Rediff.com India News
Pakistan should request haqqanis to play their role in making successful peace talks of Pak army with TTP.

Wrong demand.

You should have said that "TTP should request haqqani to play his role in making successful peace talks of TTP with Pakistan Army".

Infact all the political BS parties of Pakistan agreed to talk to TTP BUT Pakistan army refused to bow down to demands of TTP.

Hence its TTP thats is on the run.
 
I have stated earlier that beating the Taliban is not merely going to be done with the use of brute force. The FCR has to be repealed, roads need to be built, employment has to be provided to the tribesmen and schools and colleges should open up. But when you head to FATA its like you are in another country. The infrastructure does not even exist.

I disagree that the main source of the problem is the ISI here as Luffy claims. ISI has become a scapegoat for anything that goes wrong in the country. The real people who make decisions are politicians. They should answer why they did not order the army to clear Hakimullah Mehsuds bastion in Ladha.

And you are writing book about waziristan..who told you that politicans have real power in pakistan?. You are asking policians to "order" around army to do operations? Are you kidding me. Entire FATA is under army, politicians are invalid here, even authority of a political agent is replaced by army, media needs permission from army....army dont need permission from governament to start operation any where in FATA, you think they were waiting for politicians to start military operation in tirah.
And if you read my post carefully , i have given credit to ISI in keeping pakistani talibans divided and weakened.
 
Wrong demand.

You should have said that "TTP should request haqqani to play his role in making successful peace talks of TTP with Pakistan Army".

Infact all the political BS parties of Pakistan agreed to talk to TTP BUT Pakistan army refused to bow down to demands of TTP.

Hence its TTP thats is on the run.

Pakistan army has "bowed down" several times by making peace deals with taliban in waziristan. The fact is army signaled politicians to respond to TTP peace offer through apc, army want to solve it through political process....because they themeselves have poor record of keeping peace deal with talibans, they are untrustworthy for taliban.
 
Pakistan army has "bowed down" several times by making peace deals with taliban in waziristan. The fact is army signaled politicians to respond to TTP peace offer through apc, army want to solve it through political process....because they themeselves have poor record of keeping peace deal with talibans, they are untrustworthy for taliban.

1. Waziristan peace deal was NOT with TTP.

2. There is no room for talks with TTP as long as they demand they will continue explosing bombs and killing Pakistanis.

3. This is NOT the responsibility of the Army. Political parties are dead afraid to hold these talks and want to drag army into it.

whereas Army did the right thing. it had excluded itself of any such happening. Good they should keep this stand intact.

4. Your TTP rejected political parties and demanded that Army should hold talks with it.
 
I think Pakistan should raise 2 new Corps for Baluchistan & Tribal areas by recruiting local youth, it will create employment and as they will be better aware of area and culture, so can deal with insurgents more effectively and also time has changed now, we can't leave our western border unprotected, same corps raised from locals should be assigned to protect border and stop illegal cross border movements and smuggling. Lot of opportunities can be created by developing trade routes to central Asia. In short, without development work & employment opportunities any kind of force will fail.

And stop all religious funding irrespective of sect must be banned for sake of Pakistan and next generations.
 
I can definitely vouch for majority of people in the region that TTP, in any of its forms, have no future; not today, not beyond 2014. They have been rejected by the masses and we see them desperately trying to keep themselves relevant, and the way for them to do this is to keep their cowardly attacks on innocent Pakistanis. We see them attacking election rallies and offices of political parties and issuing warnings about participation in elections, not only to the candidates, but also to the voters. They shamelessly claim responsibility of their crimes. Rest assured these common enemies of peace and prosperity are being dealt with iron hands. They have no future with their violence and brutality. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just living in fool’s paradise.


Abdul Quddus
DET-United States Central Command
U.S. Central Command
 
I can definitely vouch for majority of people in the region that TTP, in any of its forms, have no future; not today, not beyond 2014. They have been rejected by the masses and we see them desperately trying to keep themselves relevant, and the way for them to do this is to keep their cowardly attacks on innocent Pakistanis. We see them attacking election rallies and offices of political parties and issuing warnings about participation in elections, not only to the candidates, but also to the voters. They shamelessly claim responsibility of their crimes. Rest assured these common enemies of peace and prosperity are being dealt with iron hands. They have no future with their violence and brutality. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just living in fool¡¯s paradise.


Abdul Quddus
DET-United States Central Command
U.S. Central Command
American drones have played a key role in weakening TTP and its allied foriegn militants. Killing of a capable TTP leader baitullah mehsud by drone was big blow to TTP, it has never recovered to that level after his death. Baitullah was known for his leadership qualities and his ability to keep alliances and friendships strong. It also prove those conspiracy theories false that America is behind TTP and is supporting it.
 

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