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Fate of TTP after 2014, my analysis

Pashtun is mentioned "again and again" in every article and book written about taliban , do you know why?
I thought you were a think tank. You shouldnt be allergic to this word *looking at your location*
You mean it is a divide-and-rule policy?

Pashtun is mentioned again and again because apparently Taliban is a primarily Pashtun movement aimed to topple Afghan(Karzai) government which has no(sufficient) representation from Pashtuns. This civil war-ist narrative was pushed by none other than Pakistani army as justification for their support to Taliban.
 
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If you notice only one act of Musharraf badly beat the shitzz out of extremist groups.....giving freedom to media. It has cause so much hated against these elements. That s the reason they still in caves, if you notice they scared to come cities openly. lolzz...and they know the consequence ...
 
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@Pak-one

Factually wrong article with bogus claims and figures. Lets start by your rant about East Pakistan. There was no 8 day war nor 90000 Pak army soldiers to start with. Total number of Pak forces never exceeded 45000 in East Pakistan, and that include army, police and para-military forces also. The army was in bitter guerrilla fight from 25th march, 1971. On 21st November, Indian forces attacked East Pakistan, after Indira Gandhi's ultimatum ended. On 3rd December, war on western front was also started. Somehow, Indians always blame Pakistan for starting 1971 war, and count the days from 3rd dec-16 dec 1971. It wasn't 8 days, it was 8 months and 21 days war to be exact.

TTP is not an organization driven by some ideology like for example Hamas or PLO has. It mainly started by left over militants, who after 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan went there for Jihad. Many of them ended slaughtered on the roads of Kabul, when Northern alliance took over, rest either died in containers or Guantanamo bay or are still in Bagram jail.

Its all about money, nothing more nothing less. We all know what the economy of tribal belt is. Smuggling, narcotics, illegal weapons. Stolen cars form Pakistan ends up in that lawless land. Rich persons from settled area kidnapped and taken there for ransom. When OBL along-with his million dollars seek refuge in tribal belt, every tribal malik's eyes would have been popped out with greed. Many groups or factions formed but Nek Mohammad of Mehsud tribe took the lead. An ambitious man in early 20's having little madrasa education. He got fame, money, power and above all hundreds of Uzbek fighters. The first thing the TTP does was a simple strategy. They started killing tribal elders one by one. The Jirgah system collapsed as many times such gatherings were targeted by suicide bombers. Killing of malicks created vacuum, which ensured rise of TTP on fast track.

If you know so much of Pashtuns then you must are familiar with a simple rule of tribes. Blood for blood. Can you accept the argument that on one side TTP killing other tribal elders and taking on lucrative share of illicit money all by themselves and other Tribes will just stay idol doing nothing at all? No dear, what happened that Tribes formed their own militias. And thats how the story went on. What faction did what and what ISI role is. This is another long story. Off-course in such situations there are maneuvers and ISI is no exception. Like any other spy agency of the world, it has also its share of successes and failures.

A famous quote about spy agencies "Their failures are known but their successes dont"

There were also many miscalculations on Pakistani establishment part also.

But going further into that part, let me highlight an other thing. There is not just ISI operating there, dozens of spy agencies of world are there. Huge money is involved and stakes are high for everyone.

TTP rise was boosted when it formed alliances with banned Pakistani organizations like LeJ and JeM. This gave them 2 benefits. First of all for the first time they were able to bring terrorism inside mainland Pakistan and secondly they started getting unlimited supply of brainwashed militants, who were trained in highly radical sectarian environment. The suicide attacks in mainland Pakistan against common civilians or other sects are carried out mainly by LeJ. By alliance with LeJ, TTP also got sympathies from main Deoband school of thought parties. This alliance also formed the basis of Lal mosque incident and some how rise of TTP Swat. This alliance also benefited TTP establishing a grip in Karachi. In Karachi any person having balls and a 9mm pistol can collect bhatta easily. TTP started that business there in 2008, now finances for terror operations is no problem for them. Loot a bank and there you go, money for a suicide attack is there.

The biggest help TTP received was when Ex-PA personnel like Ilyas Kashmiri, Major Haroon, Doctor Usman, Omer Rasheed and many more join the ranks of TTP. With their help TTP was able to launch high profile attacks against Pakistani military.
I have read somewhere that a simple suicide jacket cost around 6 lac. A minor suicide attacker is sold within these organizations at around 15 lac. A car bomb cost round about a crore. A major truck bomb like that targeted ISI building in Lahore fall somewhere between 3-5 crores. Major operations like attack against PNS Mehran goes into hundred of million rupees. Other then that arming and feeding and maintaining large militant force like TTP has is not a joke. Sure they are getting help from outside in a big way. After 2014, you will see break ups in their ranks as foreign investors get out. TTP will try it best to remain in lime light, for that they will try to attack any thing which ensure them to remain in news.

Ever wonder, why militant organizations claim responsibility of attacks? Is becoz it make them a star among the groups. Its make you worthwhile for agencies like RAW or CIA to invest in. Everyone bets on winning horses. TTP knows very well that they will get money only when their patrons feel that it can get the job done. After 2014, the flow of money look scarce. Thats why TTP is suddenly getting interested in Tirah valley (poppy fields) and Karachi (share of billions of rupees bhatta).

Have you ever bread a Rottweiler. Its the most powerful of dog breed. The person who keeps it have to bear the NAKHRAS of this dog also. You dont feed him he will attack you. TTP know it very well. It dont pay the money to militants it has on payroll, its dead.

Nice words. But I disagree when you say TTP does not have an ideology. They do have an ideology and they stick to it very well. They follow their leaders' orders and they are actually working for what they believe in, i.e., an Islamic Emirate. Just ignoring this fact does not help us deal with them. Because TTP gets support and sympathy in normal public exactly because of their sticking to ideology. Even if, as you suggest, they do not have an actual ideology, their propaganda convinced a lot of people about the existence of such ideology. If they hadn't attacked Kamra and destroyed the P3s their support would have been even more among Pakistani public.
 
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