Fate of TTP after 2014, my analysis

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

ISI is very efficient organization. So far they have succeeded in turning one faction of talibans against another and prevent them from uniting under one banner...look at ISI's record
1- They quicky approached turkistan bhittani , who split away from baitulluh mehsud due to differences. They provided finances and other supports to bhittani talibans and encouraged them to launch attacks on mehsud talibans. They also brought turkistan to media to say that how TTP actions are unislamic. Resources and attention of TTP got spending on turkistan bhittani. Then in military operation in south waziristan army employed bhittani group to establish control on already captured areas. Turkistan bhittani was dreaming of having his own area of influence. But due to poor performance of bhittani against powerful mehsuds, army unarmed him and his men despite his protests , to establish army writ over Tank district. Bhittani claimed that he got used by Army against TTP ...moral of this story is that if you give yourself completely to army, they are going to used you and then throw away like tissue paper.
2- Abdullah mehsud group split away from baitullah mehsud group...they were also approached by ISI and togather with turkistan bhittani, they were helped by army to fight against baitullah mehsud...its leader Qari hussain was assassinated in DI khan, their story ends here...
3- Maulvi nazir, leader of wazir talibans of south waziristan got in conflict with troublesome uzbeks, this angered baitullah mehsud who was providing sanctuary to Uzbeks. ISI took advantage of the situation, provided him every kind of help in his war against uzbeks and then against TTP...after that army formed non-aggession pact with maulvi nazir group...Maulvi nazir survived two drones and because of that he broke peace deal and said that deal is invalid untill pakistan ask america to stop drone attacks. Later he formed alliance both with TTP and hafiz gul bahadur group, also maintained non-aggression against pak army and focused on Afghanistan...to break the alliance between TTP and maulvi and turned them against each other, pampflets in pashto were distributed by ISI in nazir's area supposedly written by baitullah against maulvi nazir. Both group called it propaganda of ISI...This guy got droned recently and his group's trust in pakistan military is seem to be lifted and i think they are realizing double games of Pakistan...
4- Hafiz gul bahadur , commander of north waziristan talibans...they are focused on afghanistan...like nazir they are hostile to uzbeks...has formed non-aggression pact with pak army, has allowed them limited movements in north waziristan...is not part of TTP but is not hostile to them either...whenever army try to flex its muscles , they attack and kill or kidnap faujis as warning....as army is focused on TTP so they have no choice but to have peace deals with this guy...after american withdrawl they would continue to focus on afghanistan but if pak army gets naughty with them then he can easily join hands with TTP against army...
5- Haqqani network, has good relationships with ISI , wont participate against in move against pakistan army.
6- Mangal bagh , commander of lashkar e islam in khyber agency of afridi tribe. Was fighting long sectarian war with bareilvi militants of ansar ul islam and defeated them. Had complete control of bara tehsil, was openely pro-pakistan and pro-army and ISI allowed him to carry on his activities in khyber agency freely. Now this month army has decided to clear the tirah of his militants so that NATO supply line is in governament control after american withrdrawl. Mangal bagh has joined hands with TTP and togather they are giving so much resistance to Pak army that dozens of elite SSG commandos are falling like common soldiers..to prevent it from being a disaster, pakistan air force is bombarding each and every inch of tirah...if mangal bagh and his group survives he would be a great headache for Pakistan army as their area of influence is few kilometers away from peshawer...and is also has long border with afghanistan.

In short ISI has utilized its capabilities and has taken advantage of every oppurtunity so far to keep talibans divided...yet they have badly failed against TTP now led by hakimullah mehsud....still they would continue playing their spy roles and lets see how they perform...hakimullah mehsud's amir ul momineen is mullah omar and they listen to him and respect him...afghan talibans would definately provide sanctuary to TTP. TTP has support of foriegn militants as well as punjabi talibans, now mangal bagh of khyber agency has made alliance with them, their range and scope is very wide...TTP can not defeat pak army but they would exchaust them in the long run..similarly pak army is unable to finish TTP...the question is who has high stamina for decades long war?...pashtun talibans? Or pak army who surrendered its 90 thousands of its troops after just 8 days war in east bengal when they faced stronger enemy....while religion and faith drives and motivates TTP...secular like Pak army relies on support , motivation and cheering from civilians , and civilians support is disappointing, from pashtun population there is no support at all, so they are highly demoralized....they are definately going for peace deals with talibans, as after american withdrawl they wont be able to milk dollars from uncle sam...TTP i think wont listen, their goal is islamabad...according to retd general ali jan orakzai, the main person behind peace deals with talibans, it was always army during musharaf times who broke peace deal with talibans under american pressure...TTP simply dont trust two tongued Army/ISI
@TaimiKhan, @nuclearpak, @Abu Zolfiqar , @haviZsultan, @Awesome, @Last Hope, @Safriz,
@TaimiKhan, @nuclearpak, @Abu Zolfiqar , @haviZsultan, @Awesome, @Last Hope, @Safriz,

 

[Last Hope]

Whose side are you on again?

I find this biased and wrongly represented.

 

[RazorMC]

TTP uses geurilla tactics and is therefore extremely difficult to contain for a conventional army. Despite managing only 1% of the US defense budget, Pak-Mil has been able to take the offensive away from cities to the TTP themselves. While the US has failed in Afghanistan, Pakistan is presenting a much better story.

TTP's willingness to talk was just proof of what PA has achieved. The cost in lives, effort and resources is great, but so is the end result.

 

[darkinsky]

you cant defeat TTP through usual tactics, you need to go and establish a civilian order, bring progress and development

if you defeat them, they will hibernate in caves and will sprout in the suitable time and favourable conditions

if you make pathans realise the difference between cave mentality and taste of better life they will never join TTP

reality cant be changed, they are living a shitt life, they can resist the temptation for a better urban life

 

[Emmie]

No offense but this scribble is faulty & colored! And as usual you simply couldn't resist mentioning the word Pashtun again and over again.

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

TTP uses geurilla tactics and is therefore extremely difficult to contain for a conventional army. Despite managing only 1% of the US defense budget, Pak-Mil has been able to take the offensive away from cities to the TTP themselves. While the US has failed in Afghanistan, Pakistan is presenting a much better story.

TTP's willingness to talk was just proof of what PA has achieved. The cost in lives, effort and resources is great, but so is the end result.

It is time Pakistan army becomes serious and sincere in negotiations with talibans. When TTP offered peace talks, all the pakistanis started shouting that they are so weakened that they are trying to make peace deal, they needed final blow. On this TTP denied that they are weak, withdrew their offer and intensified attacks on military...Now mangal bagh like commander with several thousands afridi militants has made alliance with TTP and are giving a very tough resistance to a professional army in ongoing tirah operation...they are not weakened, every islamic militant is potential ally of TTP.
And TTP has changed its stretagy, they are now entirely focused on attacking military targets instead of civilians...that would be troublesome for pak army.

 

[RazorMC]

@Pak-one,

Aray bhai, maybe you misunderstood my post.

TTP is on the backfoot now. So there is no point in peace talks. It is the PA who has the high ground and is constantly pushing TTP back. Better funding for the operations would ensure a swift end to the TTP and appropriate development steps by the government will further eradicate this problem.

Granted that Islamic militants are potential TTP-allies, but once the TTP is dealt with, Islamic militancy's main banner will be finished.

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

No offense but this scribble is faulty & colored! And as usual you simply couldn't resist mentioning the word Pashtun again and over again.

Pashtun is mentioned "again and again" in every article and book written about taliban , do you know why?
I thought you were a think tank. You shouldnt be allergic to this word *looking at your location*

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

Aray bhai, maybe you misunderstood my post.

TTP is on the backfoot now. So there is no point in peace talks. Is the PA who has the high ground and is constantly pushing TTP back.

Better funding for the operations would ensure a swift end to the TTP and appropriate development steps by the government will further eradicate this problem.

I understood your post, just went on analysing further....
If Pakistan has to finish TTP then it has to do it before American withdrawl from Afghanistan in 2014. And there an operation is needed in north waziristan , that would antagonize neutral taliban hafiz gul bahadur and hafiz gul bahadur has very good relations with haqqani network...thats why Pak army is reluctant in n.waziristan...
Pakistan can not eradicate talibans, solution through military operations wont work.

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

you cant defeat TTP through usual tactics, you need to go and establish a civilian order, bring progress and development

if you defeat them, they will hibernate in caves and will sprout in the suitable time and favourable conditions

if you make pathans realise the difference between cave mentality and taste of better life they will never join TTP

reality cant be changed, they are living a shitt life, they can resist the temptation for a better urban life

You could have said it in decent words but you are making a good point.
Its simple pathans are "either your best friends or worst enemies", musharaf didnt know that and involved army in a war which is stretched now for 9 years with very very poor results...

 

[RazorMC]

I understood your post, just went on analysing further....
If Pakistan has to finish TTP then it has to do it before American withdrawl from Afghanistan in 2014. And there an operation is needed in north waziristan , that would antagonize neutral taliban hafiz gul bahadur and hafiz gul bahadur has very good relations with haqqani network...thats why Pak army is reluctant in n.waziristan...
Pakistan can not eradicate talibans, solution through military operations wont work.

Only a military solution never works. Diplomacy+Development+Military is the key. The problem is only one aspect is working while the other two have been put to rest by the GoP.

America's withdrawal is good or bad for Pakistan ...... I don't know for certain. What does it entail for the Taliban and the TTP? What will PA's strategy be after 2014? Reconciliation or should we push the offensive further?

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

Only a military solution never works. Diplomacy Development Military is the key. The problem is only one aspect is working while the other two have been put to rest by the GoP.

America's withdrawal is good or bad for Pakistan ...... I don't know for certain. What does it entail for the Taliban and the TTP? What will PA's strategy be after 2014? Reconciliation or should we push the offensive further?

Lets see how events in Afghanistan unfold after 2014, it will have direct impact on morale and future ambitions of TTP.

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

Whose side are you on again?

I find this biased and wrongly represented.

Why i have to pick one side? It is war between creators and creatures...it is war between Parent (army) and its childern(taliban).

 

[Icewolf]

TTP wil probably be borken into split pieces, and the cave monkeys will end up killing eachother, just like they are doing in Tirah

Btw, TTP is getting weaker now... Pakistan Army doing a good job eliminating these rats

 

[darkinsky]

You could have said it in decent words but you are making a good point.
Its simple pathans are "either your best friends or worst enemies", musharaf didnt know that and involved army in a war which is stretched now for 9 years with very very poor results...

its not about pathan's instincts, musharraf is never at fault, he inherited the mistakes of his predecessors, zia took all afghan refuges and thats how the mess started, before khyber pukhtunkhwa was a very modern province, now it has fallen like a stone age, it needs to be brought back to civilization

also thr tribal area needs to come to the national circle, the lawless land will breed more terror so its necessary to bring civilization to them and teach them to live a healthy good modern live which they never imagined before

military solution has never worked in iraq, vietnaam and any where else

a guy who has nothing to loose doesnt care about his life and thats eactly whats going on in KPK and TTP