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Explainer | China debt: has it changed in 2021 and how big is it now?

Why am I, really? Are you that dumb to not understand why I would feel the need to go and show the words out of your own governor after half a page of non sense you utter calling everyone propaganda, lies, CIA and whatever else nonsense u say

2- numbers don’t lie. Trying to discredit an article because apparently everyone who sheds light on real economics doesn’t make the numbers false or go away
Unfortunately for you I am not dumb enough to fall for the exact same dumb spin as I literally just pointed out was used in your own American propganda article.

Liars use numbers to lie every day. Hurling out insults at everyone who sheds light on edited fake headlines and spins and in your American propaganda doesnt make the truth go away.

Your own American propaganda article answering its own fake doubts after half a page of nonsense trying to deny the truth:
Overall leverage declined by 2.1 percentage points in the first quarter of 2021
 
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I must tell you it's a ticking time bomb !

Cant sell yuan also since it's not fully convertible ! :lol:
 
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This chart intrigues me, Hong Kong NIIP suddenly grows but China NIIP slows. What is actually happening? What sorcery is this?

1623763306802.png
 
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This chart intrigues me, Hong Kong NIIP suddenly grows but China NIIP slows. What is actually happening? What sorcery is this?

View attachment 753672
A large portion of Chinas exports are routed theough hongkong taking advantage of concessions/relaxations honk kong enjoys when it comes to western markets. Its a guess, more informed members can give a more correct analysis.
 
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China debt: has it changed in 2021 and how big is it now?
  • China’s overall debt was 270.1 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of 2020, up from 246.5 per cent at the end of 2019
  • China’s outstanding foreign debt, including US dollar debt, reached US$2.4 trillion in 2020
China’s debt levels rose significantly in 2020 as a result of looser fiscal policy to help revive the coronavirus-hit economy. Photo: AFP


China’s debt levels rose significantly in 2020 as a result of looser fiscal policy to help revive the coronavirus-hit economy. Photo: AFP

What is the nature of China’s debt?
Broadly speaking, China’s debt can be divided into domestic debt and foreign debt.
China’s domestic debt, denominated in yuan, consists of three components: corporate, household and government debt. Corporate debt includes borrowings by private sector and state-owned companies. Public debt is a combination of national and local government debt.
Household debt is the combined debt of all people in a household, including consumer debt and mortgage loans.


China’s foreign debt in currencies other than the yuan includes private sector firms’ borrowing from foreign banks, trade-related credit to Chinese firms from foreign trading partners, and debt securities issued by Chinese state-owned and private sector firms to foreign investors.



What about debt that the world owes China?
Almost all of this lending is official, coming from the government and state-controlled companies. Over the years, China has been lending to emerging economies such as those in Africa.

China is also a large holder of US Treasuries, effectively funding federal budget deficits in the United States. However, many of the borrowings in developing countries are between governments, and China often does not disclose details or terms of the loans.

According to a report by the Institute of International Finance in January 2021, China’s outstanding debt claims on the rest of the world increased from about US$1.6 trillion in 2006 to more than US$5.6 trillion as of mid-2020, making China one of the biggest creditors to low-income countries.

What is China’s current debt level?

China’s debt levels rose significantly in 2020 as a result of looser fiscal policy to help revive the coronavirus-hit economy. But the Chinese government has since said debt reduction is now a priority in preventing more bad debt from building up.

China’s National Institution for Finance and Development (NFID), a government-linked think tank, put the nation’s overall debt at 270.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2020, up from 246.5 per cent at the end of 2019.
Overall leverage declined by 2.1 percentage points in the first quarter of 2021 to 268 per cent of GDP.

Household debt to GDP declined for the first time on a quarterly basis since 2012, but only by a small fraction, according to NFID, from 62.2 per cent at the end of 2020 to 62.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2021. Within the household debt category, consumer loans rose from 13.4 per cent in late 2020 to 13.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.

Public debt to GDP fell the most out of all the categories in the first quarter of 2021. The NFID’s estimates showed that the leverage ratio of local governments fell from 25.6 per cent at the end of 2020 to 24.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.

China’s outstanding foreign debt, including US dollar debt, reached US$2.4 trillion at the end of 2020, up 4 per cent compared with the total at the end of September 2020, according to China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Who owns China’s debt?
Most of China’s local government debt is held by state-owned or state-controlled financial institutions. For decades, China’s local governments have relied on off-balance-sheet borrowing through local government financing vehicles(LGFVs).


Many of these borrowings are not recorded, and transparency is weak when it comes to how the funds are used. Such hidden debts were estimated to be between 30 trillion yuan (US$4.2 trillion) and 40 trillion yuan by Standard & Poor’s in 2018.By comparison, outstanding local government debt totalled 26.6 trillion yuan at the end of April, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Chinese debt is typically held by domestic institutional investors such as commercial banks, followed by policy banks, which are state-owned banks whose investment and lending practices support government policies, including issuing bonds to raise funds for infrastructure investment and insurance companies.
Foreign investors, on the other hand, have been putting their money in China’s bond market, which consists of bonds issued by the national government, local governments and private companies, along with mortgage-backed securities and other asset-backed securities.

Chinese government bond trade proves profitable for foreign fund managers using Bond Connect
26 Feb 2021



The Chinese bond market is now the second-largest behind that of the US. Since 2016, it has become accessible to foreign investors through government-controlled schemes such as the Bond Connect programme and the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor scheme.

Foreign investors, including wealth managers, mutual funds, family offices and hedge funds, held 3.62 trillion yuan worth of Chinese bonds at the end of April, making up around 3.4 per cent of all bonds traded in the interbank market.
A total of 58 per cent of these bonds are Treasury bonds, and 27.9 per cent are invested in policy bank bonds, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

How has China’s debt level changed?
China’s domestic debt has been growing at an average annual rate of around 20 per cent since 2008, faster than its GDP growth. In a bid to counter the impact of the global financial crisis, Beijing unleashed a 4 trillion yuan (US$586 billion)
stimulus package in 2008 to boost its economy, which led to a surge in borrowing by local governments and state-owned firms.

But since 2016, China has increased efforts to reduce its debt pile to curb financial risks under
a deleveraging campaign led by the central bank. The pandemic that began in 2020, however, has sent China’s overall leverage ratio up again.


What stimulus measures did China use to combat the economic impact of the coronavirus?
15 Dec 2020



As a result, the Chinese government has renewed its efforts to control domestic debt levels, especially in the speculative property market. A series of defaults in bonds sold by state firms controlled by local governments late in 2020 also raised fears that it could trigger a financial crisis in
China’s state-dominated banking sector
.

In April, the State Council, the government’s cabinet, said that LGFVs, which are used by local governments to sidestep borrowing limits, should restructure or go bankrupt if they are unable to pay back debt.

After years of rapid growth, China’s external debt has also grown, partly because of the country’s push to acquire
foreign assets Its overseas expansion, though, has slowed somewhat since 2015 because of a combination of factors such as sluggish domestic growth, capital and regulatory controls and increasing scrutiny by foreign countries of Chinese investment.

How has China’s debt to emerging markets changed?
There are signs that Chinese overseas policy bank lending under its Belt and Road Initiative has slowed since 2016 following a number of controversies with its loan agreements with countries such as Sri Lanka Pakistan Venezuela Malaysia and other borrowers.

The Hambantota Port case in Sri Lanka put China’s overseas lending practices in the spotlight, with the US government alleging that Beijing engages in “debt trap” diplomacy
.
Some countries such as Malaysia have since reassessed infrastructure proposals and cancelled or renegotiated new projects. Beijing, for its part, has said it will focus on lending to more sustainable projects.
US-based Rhodium Group said in a research note in January 2021 that it expected to see a “drastic fall in China’s global infrastructure lending in 2020, as both China and recipient countries marshalled resources for Covid-19 and sought to alleviate debt pressure by renegotiating existing loans”.

What is the outlook for China’s debt level and overseas lending?
China’s domestic debt level has been mainly driven by its desire to grow its economy as fast as possible. Local government officials’ performance has long been evaluated almost entirely on the basis of their ability to produce economic growth.
This incentive structure has been integral to China’s economic success since it launched market reforms more than 40 years ago, and as long as China is growing at a reasonably fast rate, borrowers are able to achieve enough profits on their projects to pay off the debts they owe.
However, the Chinese government has indicated that the speed of economic growth is not as desirable as before, and thus has said it intends to keep an average annual economic growth rate over the next five years within a “reasonable” range in its
development plan for 2021-25
.

Debt reduction has been highlighted as one of five major tasks this year, as Beijing seeks to cut excess housing inventory and reduce overcapacity in certain sectors.

China's local government spending under microscope to protect national economy from ‘systemic risk’
14 Apr 2021
View attachment 753586

Overseas investment offers China an opportunity to increase trade and business, boosting its own economy. The Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s signature foreign policy initiative, enables China to leverage its economic strength to increase its influence abroad.

As such, China’s external debt level will also be affected by its foreign policy objectives under the Belt and Road Initiative.
But China’s increasing overseas lending has raised questions about whether it should continue to receive loans from the World Bank as a developing country.

The United States, as the largest shareholder of the World Bank, has objected to lending to China. David Malpass, the American president of the World Bank, has criticised China’s lending efforts to fund its belt and road infrastructure projects, saying the loans leave weaker countries with “excessive debt and low-quality projects”.

In an April 2021 meeting with China’s finance minister, Liu Kun, Malpass stressed that it was important to find “lasting solutions to the unsustainable debt burdens of the world’s poorest countries”, urging China to focus on “debt transparency and the need for full participation in debt treatments by bondholders and private creditors, as well as all official bilateral creditors”.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...a-debt-has-it-changed-2021-and-how-big-it-now
That is total debt in nominal GDP not in PPP, government debt is around 40%. You have to watch out your own country, total debt is already 300+% of GDP in real dollars value, government debt is already 127% of gdp and is only going to get worse MUCH worse.
 
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This chart intrigues me, Hong Kong NIIP suddenly grows but China NIIP slows. What is actually happening? What sorcery is this?

View attachment 753672

No idea, many countries in the list above like Japan and Singapore saw a significant jump as well.

If I can make a guess, it might be due to a huge jump in global equity prices last year, especially the US stock market. That might also explain why the NIIP of the US fell significantly further last year as well (due to the large increase of foreign ownership in domestic assets).

1623770101838.png


But as to why HK's NIIP saw a really steep increase while mainland China's actually fell despite a current account surplus, I don't know. Maybe many wealthy Chinese changed their residency to HK last year?
 
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This threads title is fake and changed by this American troll.

The real title is

The title from this fake "Chinese" American run propaganda rag SCMP is still retarded.
The news is that Chinas "overall" debt ratio has dropped and they just refuse to admit it and the first 10 paragraphs and 2 sections dodge the simple answer with citations of old 2020 pandemic stimulus data to alude that the current news is that debt is going up. Nevermind this "overall" debt spin. The simple answer and what should have been the headline if it was real journalism is that debt in China has actually been dropping according to the latest update of the think tank source they keep citing. The rest of the article are just recycled U.S. government propganda hoaxes and disinformation.

In case you wonder why this garbage reads like another U.S. government propaganda cutout:
Amanda Lee is an "ex" official U.S. government propaganda agent now working at our well known U.S. propaganda proxy mouthpiece SCMP and is still peddling blatant anti-Chinese U.S. government and British government propaganda and fakenews and literal CIA cutout disinfo on her U.S. social media profiles plus garbage from Apple Daily and uses anti-Chinese CIA textbook language to enable U.S. terrorism and separatism efforts. There is no evidence this person is even located in Beijing as claimed.


Its National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD), not "China's" or NFID" and its about as much linked to the government as the proclaimed author is linked to the British and U.S. government via here pseudo journalistic career and accademic ties, assuming she even wrote the article and didnt just paste whatever Washington sent her.
SCMP is owned by alibaba actually. Not a US company
 
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SCMP is owned by alibaba actually. Not a US company
You would never call Airbus , BAE or Aston Martin a Chinese company if it was purchased by some Chinese tycoon for whatever crazy plans. Spare us your pretense. We get your are trying to defend this lie about South China Morning Post being a "Chinese source" deflecting responsibility and bad rep of American and British propaganda labels with this routine that replaced the old meaningless "but its based in Hong Kong" phrase.

It wasnt a Malaysian newspaper before, its wasnt an Australian newspaper then, its not a Chinese newspaper now. Declaring their office in the UK or Germany doesnt make Reuters or Radio Free Europe any less US propaganda mouthpieces. Declaring their directors independent from any governments doesnt make Radio Free Asia or Voice of America any less US state propaganda mouthpieces. Proxying your funds through the NED doesnt make all your favourite one man show fake activist and belly rubbers any less U.S. state propaganda mouthpieces.

The majority of this supposedly "Chinese newspaper" staff is not even located in China but the bulk of it in the USA and nearly every "Chinese reporter" was previously trained for years by some US propaganda mouthpiece and many of them including this alleged author are still parotting explicitely anti-Chinese US propaganda and disinformation about China from their "former" employees and other U.S. propaganda mouthpieces and even literal CIA cutouts on their private U.S. social media accounts or actually still working for them at the same time. About 90% of its content is straight out U.S. propaganda and the rest just silly clickbait and generic nonsense with a few token "opinion" pieces for plausible denial of this farce you are pushing, just like every other U.S. propaganda mouthpiece does. Half the content are just literal republications of U.S. propaganda from its primarily U.S. "collaboration partners". You can cry conspiracy now as your script demands, to deny the reproduceable facts.

Nevermind that SCMP is in the process of getting sold by Alibaba Group and purged.

As if a real Chinese newspaper would be this popular with American trolls or American media costantly citing their own propaganda laundered by SCMP as a "Chinese source".
 
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Mainland China’s economy has collapsed for decades. In 2021, China’s GDP will exceed India’s six times. Haha :lol: :lol: :lol: 8-) 8-) 8-)

And if you remember that India's economy was bigger than Chinas at the time of independence for India - then you can understand India's shame even more :p: ..
 
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Chinas economic situation will only get worse in 2021 will all the sanctions and boycotts

with camels like Xi Jinping in power he is basically wasting all the hard work his predecessors have done
 
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China debt: has it changed in 2021 and how big is it now?
  • China’s overall debt was 270.1 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of 2020, up from 246.5 per cent at the end of 2019
  • China’s outstanding foreign debt, including US dollar debt, reached US$2.4 trillion in 2020
China’s debt levels rose significantly in 2020 as a result of looser fiscal policy to help revive the coronavirus-hit economy. Photo: AFP


China’s debt levels rose significantly in 2020 as a result of looser fiscal policy to help revive the coronavirus-hit economy. Photo: AFP

What is the nature of China’s debt?
Broadly speaking, China’s debt can be divided into domestic debt and foreign debt.
China’s domestic debt, denominated in yuan, consists of three components: corporate, household and government debt. Corporate debt includes borrowings by private sector and state-owned companies. Public debt is a combination of national and local government debt.
Household debt is the combined debt of all people in a household, including consumer debt and mortgage loans.


China’s foreign debt in currencies other than the yuan includes private sector firms’ borrowing from foreign banks, trade-related credit to Chinese firms from foreign trading partners, and debt securities issued by Chinese state-owned and private sector firms to foreign investors.



What about debt that the world owes China?
Almost all of this lending is official, coming from the government and state-controlled companies. Over the years, China has been lending to emerging economies such as those in Africa.

China is also a large holder of US Treasuries, effectively funding federal budget deficits in the United States. However, many of the borrowings in developing countries are between governments, and China often does not disclose details or terms of the loans.

According to a report by the Institute of International Finance in January 2021, China’s outstanding debt claims on the rest of the world increased from about US$1.6 trillion in 2006 to more than US$5.6 trillion as of mid-2020, making China one of the biggest creditors to low-income countries.

What is China’s current debt level?

China’s debt levels rose significantly in 2020 as a result of looser fiscal policy to help revive the coronavirus-hit economy. But the Chinese government has since said debt reduction is now a priority in preventing more bad debt from building up.

China’s National Institution for Finance and Development (NFID), a government-linked think tank, put the nation’s overall debt at 270.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2020, up from 246.5 per cent at the end of 2019.
Overall leverage declined by 2.1 percentage points in the first quarter of 2021 to 268 per cent of GDP.

Household debt to GDP declined for the first time on a quarterly basis since 2012, but only by a small fraction, according to NFID, from 62.2 per cent at the end of 2020 to 62.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2021. Within the household debt category, consumer loans rose from 13.4 per cent in late 2020 to 13.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.

Public debt to GDP fell the most out of all the categories in the first quarter of 2021. The NFID’s estimates showed that the leverage ratio of local governments fell from 25.6 per cent at the end of 2020 to 24.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.

China’s outstanding foreign debt, including US dollar debt, reached US$2.4 trillion at the end of 2020, up 4 per cent compared with the total at the end of September 2020, according to China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Who owns China’s debt?
Most of China’s local government debt is held by state-owned or state-controlled financial institutions. For decades, China’s local governments have relied on off-balance-sheet borrowing through local government financing vehicles(LGFVs).


Many of these borrowings are not recorded, and transparency is weak when it comes to how the funds are used. Such hidden debts were estimated to be between 30 trillion yuan (US$4.2 trillion) and 40 trillion yuan by Standard & Poor’s in 2018.By comparison, outstanding local government debt totalled 26.6 trillion yuan at the end of April, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Chinese debt is typically held by domestic institutional investors such as commercial banks, followed by policy banks, which are state-owned banks whose investment and lending practices support government policies, including issuing bonds to raise funds for infrastructure investment and insurance companies.
Foreign investors, on the other hand, have been putting their money in China’s bond market, which consists of bonds issued by the national government, local governments and private companies, along with mortgage-backed securities and other asset-backed securities.

Chinese government bond trade proves profitable for foreign fund managers using Bond Connect
26 Feb 2021



The Chinese bond market is now the second-largest behind that of the US. Since 2016, it has become accessible to foreign investors through government-controlled schemes such as the Bond Connect programme and the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor scheme.

Foreign investors, including wealth managers, mutual funds, family offices and hedge funds, held 3.62 trillion yuan worth of Chinese bonds at the end of April, making up around 3.4 per cent of all bonds traded in the interbank market.
A total of 58 per cent of these bonds are Treasury bonds, and 27.9 per cent are invested in policy bank bonds, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

How has China’s debt level changed?
China’s domestic debt has been growing at an average annual rate of around 20 per cent since 2008, faster than its GDP growth. In a bid to counter the impact of the global financial crisis, Beijing unleashed a 4 trillion yuan (US$586 billion)
stimulus package in 2008 to boost its economy, which led to a surge in borrowing by local governments and state-owned firms.

But since 2016, China has increased efforts to reduce its debt pile to curb financial risks under
a deleveraging campaign led by the central bank. The pandemic that began in 2020, however, has sent China’s overall leverage ratio up again.


What stimulus measures did China use to combat the economic impact of the coronavirus?
15 Dec 2020



As a result, the Chinese government has renewed its efforts to control domestic debt levels, especially in the speculative property market. A series of defaults in bonds sold by state firms controlled by local governments late in 2020 also raised fears that it could trigger a financial crisis in
China’s state-dominated banking sector
.

In April, the State Council, the government’s cabinet, said that LGFVs, which are used by local governments to sidestep borrowing limits, should restructure or go bankrupt if they are unable to pay back debt.

After years of rapid growth, China’s external debt has also grown, partly because of the country’s push to acquire
foreign assets Its overseas expansion, though, has slowed somewhat since 2015 because of a combination of factors such as sluggish domestic growth, capital and regulatory controls and increasing scrutiny by foreign countries of Chinese investment.

How has China’s debt to emerging markets changed?
There are signs that Chinese overseas policy bank lending under its Belt and Road Initiative has slowed since 2016 following a number of controversies with its loan agreements with countries such as Sri Lanka Pakistan Venezuela Malaysia and other borrowers.

The Hambantota Port case in Sri Lanka put China’s overseas lending practices in the spotlight, with the US government alleging that Beijing engages in “debt trap” diplomacy
.
Some countries such as Malaysia have since reassessed infrastructure proposals and cancelled or renegotiated new projects. Beijing, for its part, has said it will focus on lending to more sustainable projects.
US-based Rhodium Group said in a research note in January 2021 that it expected to see a “drastic fall in China’s global infrastructure lending in 2020, as both China and recipient countries marshalled resources for Covid-19 and sought to alleviate debt pressure by renegotiating existing loans”.

What is the outlook for China’s debt level and overseas lending?
China’s domestic debt level has been mainly driven by its desire to grow its economy as fast as possible. Local government officials’ performance has long been evaluated almost entirely on the basis of their ability to produce economic growth.
This incentive structure has been integral to China’s economic success since it launched market reforms more than 40 years ago, and as long as China is growing at a reasonably fast rate, borrowers are able to achieve enough profits on their projects to pay off the debts they owe.
However, the Chinese government has indicated that the speed of economic growth is not as desirable as before, and thus has said it intends to keep an average annual economic growth rate over the next five years within a “reasonable” range in its
development plan for 2021-25
.

Debt reduction has been highlighted as one of five major tasks this year, as Beijing seeks to cut excess housing inventory and reduce overcapacity in certain sectors.

China's local government spending under microscope to protect national economy from ‘systemic risk’
14 Apr 2021
View attachment 753586

Overseas investment offers China an opportunity to increase trade and business, boosting its own economy. The Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s signature foreign policy initiative, enables China to leverage its economic strength to increase its influence abroad.

As such, China’s external debt level will also be affected by its foreign policy objectives under the Belt and Road Initiative.
But China’s increasing overseas lending has raised questions about whether it should continue to receive loans from the World Bank as a developing country.

The United States, as the largest shareholder of the World Bank, has objected to lending to China. David Malpass, the American president of the World Bank, has criticised China’s lending efforts to fund its belt and road infrastructure projects, saying the loans leave weaker countries with “excessive debt and low-quality projects”.

In an April 2021 meeting with China’s finance minister, Liu Kun, Malpass stressed that it was important to find “lasting solutions to the unsustainable debt burdens of the world’s poorest countries”, urging China to focus on “debt transparency and the need for full participation in debt treatments by bondholders and private creditors, as well as all official bilateral creditors”.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...a-debt-has-it-changed-2021-and-how-big-it-now

2.4 trillion in external debt accounts for 16% of GDP, which makes China at the bottom of list of most indebted country in GDP ratio.
 
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