Thank you sir.
IMHO. The maritime power projection competition between the USA and China has direct impact on Pakistan's security situation. Indo-US pacific partnership is a catalyst in this already explosive geostrategic milieu. Now, China alone will never be able to counter QUAD across the IOR. Starting from the pacific rim of Indian ocean, in far east, it is obvious that a big maritime showdown will take place there between China and QUAD. Now among QUAD, India is a major player which is ambitious to become a global player and for that She wants to compete with China alone in BoB and Arabian Sea regions of Indian Ocean. This is something which ushered strategic constraint for PN as well and we have seen the consequent major upgrade plans by PN as outlined by Ex-CNS Abbasi. My only regret is that PN has to do such acceleration now because it seems that this sister force was completely ignored in last 3 decades. Apart from 3 Agosta-90s in 90s, and 4 F-22Ps in 2000's there was nothing acquired of significance in last 3 decades. These assets are now require upgrade as well. We saw real thrust in last 3 years in shape of various weapons systems and now an elaborate plan of major acquisition has been unveiled. In this plan too, most of the work was done in last 4-5 years.
Going back to strategic constraint, PN has been scrambled hard to rectify some grave shortcomings and consequently the entire force is being reshaped (3 task forces for 3 regions). This shows that these constraints are severe and war gaming done keep in mind the trajectory of ongoing events in IOR, PN has reached the conclusion that it has to be reformed (Technology), reshaped (Structure and Size) and re-branded ( Indigenization).
Naturally, PN will look for technologies from everywhere it can get but China will remain our main ally and supplier as She has her own reasons to support us with latest of their system. A Strong PN in Arabian Sea means proportionally less competitive IN against PLAN in other regions of IOR. In naval diplomacy, China needs allies like Pakistan to counter weight QUAD like strategic constructs.
If these geo-strategic events remain on the same pace and trends, PN modernization will be faster than usual for all above mentioned reasons. In 2040, PN will have AAW Destroyers (local design), Guided Missiles frigates/ destroyers even submarines (follow up of Hangoor Class) and Fighter squadrons as well. Hyper-sonic missiles will be part of PN and more than 1 such weapons will be part of surface fleet. Longer range SLBM will be part of PN as well (to ensure 2nd strike capability). In 2040, hypersonic will be what supersonic today is. Exact force projection in 2040, will directly depend how situation changes in this volatile region.
Many members here are perplexed by the vision of a div size Marine force and Brigade size SSGN force. I think this is v logical step.Offense is best defense and expeditionary forces sends clear message to the enemies. Plus we have sir creek and run of kuch like terrain where heavy armor will not work, By 2040, I believe PN will have a complete Marine Corps. (2 to 3 div sized force) equipped with all necessary gear and by default Landing ships/docks will be part of PN as well. To me, major task of Marine Corps will be to disrupt enemy plans to make surprise landing on shores and hitting key targets and infrastructure in enemy territory. Similarly, SSGNs will be multiple independent brigades carrying out missions deep inside enemy waters / territories using its own small fleet of smaller submarines. We might also see preparations for complex BEL ops carried out by joint task forces comprising on elements from Marine, SSGNs, PN Air wing etc.
Lastly, In future fighter squadron, Project AZM will be a key factor in Air-Sea battle scenario. IN already has a impressive fighter arm in its air wing and we must assume it will only get stronger till 2040. Considering Pakistan is looking for large number of AEW, MPA, platforms, the need of a platform which can make ingress/egress quickly in a naval battle where PN will always has numerical disadvantage, will always remain there. UCAV's role in Indo-Pak scenairo will be an interesting thing but till the time, these platforms got autonomous guidance, their true potential will remain untapped. Ideal scenario will be PN operating AZM (based on J-31) with 3-4 heavy UCAVs with autonomous guidance as wing men. Air Dominance over our EEZ must be the goal.