Europe will soon starve out of Energy in 1-5 years

[Akasa]

Are we talking crude or generic energy, including LNG?

The US frequently sells more oil per day than it imports. We could be completely energy independent if we chose to, and are suddenly the #1 or #2 energy producer in the world, about to be #1 for certain.

This view is very skewed. The United States is, yes, the largest energy producer in the world. However, that energy is measured in BTUs, which refers to energy that are produced from all sources of energy, including renewable energy, and also includes imported energy sources. The United States is still smaller than Russia in terms of purely oil production. The argument that the the States could become completely independent is irrelevant to its ability to export oil to the EU. Au contraire, the ability to be independent is inversely proportional to its ability to export oil.

While currently we do not export LNG, we are bursting at the seems with supply. The EU imports a minor amount from us currently, but as we import less and less, it frees up supply from the top OPEC countries in the ME.

Supply does not translate very well to sales. Oil is a resource that takes a colossal amount of money and time to make available. And as said before, all the money needed to do that would inherently drive up the price of oil and make it less attractive to Russian sources. OPEC countries would still have to contend with the fact that Russia may choose to open up its exports any time it wishes should it feel that its business is being dragged away.

I'm not suggesting the EU can or should eliminate Russian imports, I am merely saying that if Russia reduces the available supply, there are others who can pick up the slack.

The ones picking up the slack would have to take enormous steps to ensure that it happens.

Here is a good article, and it was written before all the Olympic/Ukraine fiascos:

PITTSBURGH (AP) — The Kremlin is watching, European nations are rebelling, and some suspect Moscow is secretly bankrolling a campaign to derail the West's strategic plans.


It's not some Cold War movie; it's about the U.S. boom in natural gas drilling, and the political implications are enormous.

Like falling dominoes, the drilling process called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is shaking up world energy markets from Washington to Moscow to Beijing. Some predict what was once unthinkable: that the U.S. won't need to import natural gas in the near future, and that Russia could be the big loser

Next cold war? Gas drilling boom rattles Russia - Yahoo Finance

Yes, but it is going to be difficult. That's not something a nation or a group of nations would risk to put its peoples through without complete assurance from its allies. And at this state, the US is not ready to make that promise to the EU.

 

[OCguy]

This view is very skewed. The United States is, yes, the largest energy producer in the world. However, that energy is measured in BTUs, which refers to energy that are produced from all sources of energy, including renewable energy, and also includes imported energy sources. The United States is still smaller than Russia in terms of purely oil production. The argument that the the States could become completely independent is irrelevant to its ability to export oil to the EU. Au contraire, the ability to be independent is inversely proportional to its ability to export oil.

At the end of the 2014, the bpd will be close, if not in favor of the US. But the US becoming energy independent is absolutely relevant to the EU, since again that would free up an immense amount of crude, and suppress prices for everyone, including Russia.

Barring drastic cutting of output by SA and the other main ME producers, a barrel of oil that the US doesn't buy for a given day is as good for world supply as the US supplying a barrel of oil.

My point in all of this wasn't for manhood measurement, but to say that the hype of Western Europe running out of energy soon is a little over-done. Russia has found a solid buyer for its energy in a hungry and growing hungrier China, but they aren't the only option out there should China ever buy 100% of the Russian output.

 

[UKBengali]

At the end of the 2014, the bpd will be close, if not in favor of the US. But the US becoming energy independent is absolutely relevant to the EU, since again that would free up an immense amount of crude, and suppress prices for everyone, including Russia.

Barring drastic cutting of output by SA and the other main ME producers, a barrel of oil that the US doesn't buy for a given day is as good for world supply as the US supplying a barrel of oil.

My point in all of this wasn't for manhood measurement, but to say that the hype of Western Europe running out of energy soon is a little over-done. Russia has found a solid buyer for its energy in a hungry and growing hungrier China, but they aren't the only option out there should China ever buy 100% of the Russian output.

Write-down of two-thirds of US shale oil explodes fracking myth | Nafeez Ahmed | Environment | theguardian.com

US shale oil reserves have been overestimated.

"EIA officials told the Los Angeles Times that previous estimates of recoverable oil in the Monterey shale reserves in California of about 15.4 billion barrels were vastly overstated. The revised estimate, they said, will slash this amount by 96% to a puny 600 million barrels of oil."

Demand for oil and gas from the growing economies of China(1st largest oil importer) and India(3rd largest oil importer) are by themselves enough to sustain Russia,

EU is free to stop all oil and gas imports from Russia and supplant this with more expensive imports from elsewhere. The EU is already facing a poor future and it will only get bleaker with more expensive energy imports. It is time for the EU to realise that they need Russia more than Russia needs it.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The US sanction has backfired.

 

[MarkusS]

Write-down of two-thirds of US shale oil explodes fracking myth | Nafeez Ahmed | Environment | theguardian.com

US shale oil reserves have been overestimated.

"EIA officials told the Los Angeles Times that previous estimates of recoverable oil in the Monterey shale reserves in California of about 15.4 billion barrels were vastly overstated. The revised estimate, they said, will slash this amount by 96% to a puny 600 million barrels of oil."

Demand for oil and gas from the growing economies of China(1st largest oil importer) and India(3rd largest oil importer) are by themselves enough to sustain Russia,

EU is free to stop all oil and gas imports from Russia and supplant this with more expensive imports from elsewhere. The EU is already facing a poor future and it will only get bleaker with more expensive energy imports. It is time for the EU to realise that they need Russia more than Russia needs it.

The EU imports 30% of its oil and gass from russia...but this is 80% of russias exports. If the EU stops imports it would hurt us and kill them. Your problem is?

And what poor future are you talking about? Germany is in an economic power like never before.

 

[UKBengali]

The EU imports 30% of its oil and gass from russia...but this is 80% of russias exports. If the EU stops imports it would hurt us and kill them. Your problem is?

And what poor future are you talking about? Germany is in an economic power like never before.

What part of the new massive gas contract that Russia has signed with China have you missed recently? This is more gas than Russia exports to Germany right now. There are plans to increase the 300,000 barrels of oil that Russia sells a day to China to increase to 1 million within 5 years as well.

Also, there are negotiations currently for Russia to start exporting oil and gas to India, and the Indians are the 3rd largest oil importer in the world right now.

Do some arithmetic and you will see that the EU needs the Russians more than the other way round.

Forget Germany, which is the only large economy in EU doing well, and think about a country like Italy instead. Italy's economy is literally dying before our very eyes. Since the recession in 2008, its economy has still not made up the lost output with GDP still 8% lower than it was then. Italy now is unable to grow anymore and even by 2020 it still may not be able to get back to where it started in 2008.

Don't let the current relatively high GDP/capita fool you into thinking that Italy has any sort of future left. Italy is like a man who once had a good job and made good money but has now lost it and is relying on a meagre paying job and savings to sustain it. One day when the savings are gone it will end up having a very hard time.

 

[Audio]

What part of the new massive gas contract that Russia has signed with China have you missed recently? This is more gas than Russia exports to Germany right now.

China Russia gas deal is spread out over 30 years, worth approximately at 300 bl.€. in 2012 alone, that is, in one year Russian exports to Europe were 215 bl. €. In 2013 they were worth 206 bl.€.

I suggest you yourself do some arithmetic as you so eloquently advised. I'm sure you'll figure it out, if you'll admit it, that's another matter, as it is directly in conflict to your agenda of spreading how great China is and how we, here in Europe are little more then beggars barely surviving on the dwindling resources our forefathers plundered in Asia and Americas.

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113440.pdf

 

[UKBengali]

China Russia gas deal is spread out over 30 years, worth approximately at 300 bl.€. in 2012 alone, that is, in one year Russian exports to Europe were 215 bl. €. In 2013 they were worth 206 bl.€.

I suggest you yourself do some arithmetic as you so eloquently advised. I'm sure you'll figure it out, if you'll admit it, that's another matter, as it is directly in conflict to your agenda of spreading how great China is and how we, here in Europe are little more then beggars barely surviving on the dwindling resources our forefathers plundered in Asia and Americas.

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113440.pdf

Dude, I was not comparing this one gas deal to EU.

However, it looks like I was wrong it that after this deal both Germany and China will import similar amounts of gas, 40 billion cubic metres for Germany and 38 billion cubic metres for China.

Anyway, let us also include the oil that is set to rise from the current 300,000 barrels a day to 1 million in the same period. 365 million barrels of oil a year will be around 30 billion Euro on top. So just from China, that is likely to be 40 billion Euros. Include India and you could easily be doubling that to make 80 billion Euros a year.

This is just the two big Asian countries. Others will also increase their imports, if only the supply due to the new demand from the EU is likely to squeeze the supply from other parts of the world. Russians may have to sell 10-20% cheaper but sell they will and get pretty much the same revenue as before.

In the end, the struggling economies of the EU will just end up paying higher prices for the same product as they will have lost their bargaining power due to not having the Russian option anymore. Whoever they go to will ask top prices.

 

[Audio]

Dude, I was not comparing this one gas deal to EU.

However, it looks like I was wrong it that after this deal both Germany and China will import similar amounts of gas, 40 billion cubic metres for Germany and 38 billion cubic metres for China.

Anyway, let us also include the oil that is set to rise from the current 300,000 barrels a day to 1 million in the same period. 365 million barrels of oil a year will be around 30 billion Euro on top. So just from China, that is likely to be 40 billion Euros. Include India and you could easily be doubling that to make 80 billion Euros a year.

This is just the two big Asian countries. Others will also increase their imports, if only the supply due to the new demand from the EU is likely to squeeze the supply from other parts of the world. Russians may have to sell 10-20% cheaper but sell they will and get pretty much the same revenue as before.

In the end, the struggling economies of the EU will just end up paying higher prices for the same product as they will have lost their bargaining power due to not having the Russian option anymore. Whoever they go to will ask top prices.

Ya, more projections of the future. What can i say, you have a vivid imagination.

 

[UKBengali]

Ya, more projections of the future. What can i say, you have a vivid imagination.

Think about it dude, EU is not a superpower and does not have the luxury of sanctioning an energy-superpower like Russia. Even if US did not have it's own abundant oil and gas reserves, its puppets in the Middle-East will always supply it with what it needs.

In the end the EU will lose as the Russians will find plenty of willing buyers in Asia. Your loss and not theirs. Like I have said before, this is a new world and the EU will be one among many equal players who will be vying to grab the scarce energy resources of the world.

 

[Audio]

Think about it dude, EU is not a superpower and does not have the luxury of sanctioning an energy-superpower like Russia. Even if US did not have it's own abundant oil and gas reserves, its puppets in the Middle-East will always supply it with what it needs.

In the end the EU will lose as the Russians will find plenty of willing buyers in Asia. Your loss and not theirs. Like I have said before, this is a new world and the EU will be one among many equal players who will be vying to grab the scarce energy resources of the world.

Okay. Whatever you say. More predictions of the future...

 

[Schutz]

People arguing over who has more fossil fuelds than the other when sooner or later...much sooner rather than later the whole world will have none. The quicker oil runs out the better, we can push the renewable sources much harder and wont have to kill each other over something that is killing the planet.

Think that map is a bit screwed anyway, UK has enough reserves for a good while yet and Norways populace could survive for centuries on theirs. Worst case scenario we all run nuclear plants, would rather be living in the UK then where earthquakes are non existent and bad weather is a little bit of rain and wind.

 

[MarkusS]

What part of the new massive gas contract that Russia has signed with China have you missed recently? This is more gas than Russia exports to Germany right now. There are plans to increase the 300,000 barrels of oil that Russia sells a day to China to increase to 1 million within 5 years as well.

Also, there are negotiations currently for Russia to start exporting oil and gas to India, and the Indians are the 3rd largest oil importer in the world right now.

Do some arithmetic and you will see that the EU needs the Russians more than the other way round.

Forget Germany, which is the only large economy in EU doing well, and think about a country like Italy instead. Italy's economy is literally dying before our very eyes. Since the recession in 2008, its economy has still not made up the lost output with GDP still 8% lower than it was then. Italy now is unable to grow anymore and even by 2020 it still may not be able to get back to where it started in 2008.

Don't let the current relatively high GDP/capita fool you into thinking that Italy has any sort of future left. Italy is like a man who once had a good job and made good money but has now lost it and is relying on a meagre paying job and savings to sustain it. One day when the savings are gone it will end up having a very hard time.

sorry but this is laughable. You do realize that Russia sells its gas under market prize to china and basicly becomes chinas bitch now? Beside that we talk about years here. It will take years before the first gas will flow to china. who knows what happenes until then. Putin could be long dead.

As for italy, thanks that you care so much for our economy, So far we have still a grater economy than russia. It is normal for any economy to have ups and downs. If you believe this recession is forever than you have no clue how economy works.

Same goes for your super power comment. The EU is the world greatest economy. The continent with highest living standards and highest infrastructure levels. What else you want to be happy?

 

[Arzamas 16]

sorry but this is laughable. You do realize that Russia sells its gas under market prize to china and basicly becomes chinas bitch now? Beside that we talk about years here. It will take years before the first gas will flow to china. who knows what happenes until then. Putin could be long dead.

As for italy, thanks that you care so much for our economy, So far we have still a grater economy than russia. It is normal for any economy to have ups and downs. If you believe this recession is forever than you have no clue how economy works.

Same goes for your super power comment. The EU is the world greatest economy. The continent with highest living standards and highest infrastructure levels. What else you want to be happy?

Russia GDP = 2.118 trillion

Italian GDP = 2.071 trillion


Don't you ever get tired of making yourself look stupid ?

 

[MarkusS]

Russia GDP = 2.118 trillion

Italian GDP = 2.071 trillion


Don't you ever get tired of making yourself look stupid ?

population:

russia 143.405 million

italia 60.92 million

How comes that not even half as much italians are as productive as double as much russians? You must be some lazy bastards. But it has a nice side effect.

GDP per capita 29.000€ for italia... and 6.800 € in russia. You guys economy is patheticly weak.