Europe Seeks Way Around a Diplomatic Clash With U.S. Over Iran

[Philosopher]

The compromise pursued by French, German and British diplomats aims to constrain enough of the potential arms trade with Iran to satisfy the Trump administration while limiting the scope or duration of the arms ban to placate Russia and China, at least to the point where they would abstain in a Security Council vote, according to diplomats familiar with discussions.

Details are still at an early stage discussion, but the ideas center around a measure that would allow some arms purchases by Iran while keeping key weapons systems out of Tehran’s hands, and an extension on the arms trade restrictions that might initially be limited to 12 months, the diplomats said.

At the same time, the Europeans favor tightening oversight of Iran’s weapons exports to Tehran’s Middle East allies, possibly by providing for inspections or by granting the authority to interdict suspected weapon shipments.

https://iranian.com/custom-links/europe-seeks-way-around-a-diplomatic-clash-with-u-s-over-iran/

 

[Philosopher]

Although one cannot comment with a complete level of certainty on these matters, should the embargo not be lifted, I give a 95-99% probability the JCPOA is taken off the current life support it is on and allowed to die. There is a very slight chance Iran will not response in this manner and instead wait to see what happens first in the US elections. The reality is, on the surface Europeans have shown to lack the fortitude and the means to deliver the incentives for Iran to continue complying with the deal. In truth, I believe the Europeans are simply playing a game.

It is rather obvious the main reason Iran has stayed in the deal so far is to keep the Europeans from entering the US camp completely and see if their financial efforts such as INSTEX would bear fruit. They have not. Thus, should the not embargo be lifted, then from Iran's calculations, the benefits to stay in the deal will be outweighed by the alternative. Russia and China will blame the death of the deal on the US and continue working with Iran, to what extend, it will remain to be seen.

Iran should also make it clear that not only will this mean the death of the JCPOA but will also herald Iran's departure from the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This obvious collusion by the US and Europeans to keep a restricted arms embargo system in place (they will continue to extend it further and further) is a ploy that will not pass. There is no need for it, if the Europeans were sincere, they would keep the Russian and Chinese position of not recognising the American right to make any demands. This good cop bad cop routine being played by the Europeans and the Americans is now too exposed for people to continue ignoring it.

 

[TruthHurtz]

Pointless. In 12 months they'll just demand another extension. Don't negotiate, play hardball.

 

[fitpOsitive]

The compromise pursued by French, German and British diplomats aims to constrain enough of the potential arms trade with Iran to satisfy the Trump administration while limiting the scope or duration of the arms ban to placate Russia and China, at least to the point where they would abstain in a Security Council vote, according to diplomats familiar with discussions.

Details are still at an early stage discussion, but the ideas center around a measure that would allow some arms purchases by Iran while keeping key weapons systems out of Tehran’s hands, and an extension on the arms trade restrictions that might initially be limited to 12 months, the diplomats said.

At the same time, the Europeans favor tightening oversight of Iran’s weapons exports to Tehran’s Middle East allies, possibly by providing for inspections or by granting the authority to interdict suspected weapon shipments.

https://iranian.com/custom-links/europe-seeks-way-around-a-diplomatic-clash-with-u-s-over-iran/

What USA is good for anyway? I think it's time for Europe to think independently.

 

[Kastor]

Although one cannot comment with a complete level of certainty on these matters, should the embargo not be lifted, I give a 95-99% probability the JCPOA is taken off the current life support it is on and allowed to die. There is a very slight chance Iran will not response in this manner and instead wait to see what happens first in the US elections. The reality is, on the surface Europeans have shown to lack the fortitude and the means to deliver the incentives for Iran to continue complying with the deal. In truth, I believe the Europeans are simply playing a game.

It is rather obvious the main reason Iran has stayed in the deal so far is to keep the Europeans from entering the US camp completely and see if their financial efforts such as INSTEX would bear fruit. They have not. Thus, should the not embargo be lifted, then from Iran's calculations, the benefits to stay in the deal will be outweighed by the alternative. Russia and China will blame the death of the deal on the US and continue working with Iran, to what extend, it will remain to be seen.

Iran should also make it clear that not only will this mean the death of the JCPOA but will also herald Iran's departure from the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This obvious collusion by the US and Europeans to keep a restricted arms embargo system in place (they will continue to extend it further and further) is a ploy that will not pass. There is no need for it, if the Europeans were sincere, they would keep the Russian and Chinese position of not recognising the American right to make any demands. This good cop bad cop routine being played by the Europeans and the Americans is now too exposed for people to continue ignoring it.

I can't believe they will go along with an extension of the Arms embargo......Iran should ask Russia and China to publicly sell it arms after the extension to show that it is being ignored......we then should withdraw from the voluntary extra level of inspections since it's above and beyond what other nations do anyway. Finally, we should never withdraw from the JCPOA, this is exactly what the Zionist driven Trump administration wants. They want to kill JCPOA.....we should do everything to hold on till the election is over. Trust me Israel is panicking their free ride is coming to an end in November. I also believe Trump's chances are at an all time low...this race will be Biden's to lose.

 

[Philosopher]

Finally, we should never withdraw from the JCPOA, this is exactly what the Zionist driven Trump administration wants.

The question is, what is Iran really gaining from this deal at this moment in time that you feel it should never withdraw from it? Contrary to what you are saying, I believe Iran should not lock itself in this deal unnecessarily. If this deal fails to give Iran what it needs then it should not remain in it in the hopes that it is putting the Americans at odds with Europeans. The west only understands the language of force. If you show an opening, they will take advantage to the fullest extend possible. At this point, Iran is practically not gaining much from this deal. If the embargo is not lifted fully, then Iran could reply in the strict measures I outlined above. But it could also wait to see what happens after the American elections. I do not speak officially for Iran and thus am not privy to their calculations. Only time will show us Iran's thought process.

 

[Kastor]

The question is, what is Iran really gaining from this deal at this moment in time that you feel it should never withdraw from it? Contrary to what you are saying, I believe Iran should not lock itself in this deal unnecessarily. If this deal fails to give Iran what it needs then it should not remain in it in the hopes that it is putting the Americans at odds with Europeans. The west only understands the language of force. If you show an opening, they will take advantage to the fullest extend possible. At this point, Iran is practically not gaining much from this deal. If the embargo is not lifted fully, then Iran could reply in the strict measures I outlined above. But it could also wait to see what happens after the American elections. I do not speak officially for Iran and thus am not privy to their calculations. Only time will show us Iran's thought process.

Ok, let's take it your way....we've not gained anything from it for 4 years, but 5 months away from an election and a chance to get back to normalcy you want Iran to withdraw!? Biden is on record saying he would go back to the agreement. So what do you have to lose, wait a few more months and if the Orange Ape wins again then you savage the deal.....NOT BEFORE

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/448858/Biden-would-seek-to-reenter-JCPOA

https://ifpnews.com/trump-seeking-to-prevent-biden-from-returning-to-iran-deal

 

[Philosopher]

Ok, let's take it your way....we've not gained anything from it for 4 years, but 5 months away from an election and a chance to get back to normalcy you want Iran to withdraw!? Biden is on record saying he would go back to the agreement. So what do you have to lose, wait a few more months and if the Orange Ape wins again then you savage the deal.....NOT BEFORE

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/448858/Biden-would-seek-to-reenter-JCPOA

https://ifpnews.com/trump-seeking-to-prevent-biden-from-returning-to-iran-deal

If Biden is willing to come to back to deal, then whether Iran is in the deal or not, then it will not matter. This issue of arms embargo is not a small one. If it is not lifted it is a blatant violation of a deal, and this time not just by the US but Europeans too. Iran leaving the JCPOA will serve to pressure Trump. Moreover, the sooner Iran leaves the deal, the quicker it can expand the program and have a stronger negotiating hand in the next negotiations (assuming there will another deal). The JCPOA has many flaws, and this was made obvious by Trump, thus in the next deal , Iran can demand much more. Compare an Iran with much larger centrifuge capabilities, outside of NPT etc to the Iran that entered the JCPOA negotiation (a deal that failed). Instead you want Iran not to gain all of this but rather stay in this deal, and for what reason exactly? Do not get me wrong, I can see your point if view, but I simply do not think it put Iran in a strong enough position. If the Europeans extend the embargo, then they are the ones that have killed the deal. Lets see if they will attempt it.

 

[Yankee-stani]

Biden or Trump does not matter at this point bipartisan consensus show there is no interest in normalization with Tehran,Iran is viewed by many in the Beltway as too close to Moscow and Beijing way too independent from US interests

 

[SubWater]

Although one cannot comment with a complete level of certainty on these matters, should the embargo not be lifted, I give a 95-99% probability the JCPOA is taken off the current life support it is on and allowed to die. There is a very slight chance Iran will not response in this manner and instead wait to see what happens first in the US elections. The reality is, on the surface Europeans have shown to lack the fortitude and the means to deliver the incentives for Iran to continue complying with the deal. In truth, I believe the Europeans are simply playing a game.

It is rather obvious the main reason Iran has stayed in the deal so far is to keep the Europeans from entering the US camp completely and see if their financial efforts such as INSTEX would bear fruit. They have not. Thus, should the not embargo be lifted, then from Iran's calculations, the benefits to stay in the deal will be outweighed by the alternative. Russia and China will blame the death of the deal on the US and continue working with Iran, to what extend, it will remain to be seen.

Iran should also make it clear that not only will this mean the death of the JCPOA but will also herald Iran's departure from the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This obvious collusion by the US and Europeans to keep a restricted arms embargo system in place (they will continue to extend it further and further) is a ploy that will not pass. There is no need for it, if the Europeans were sincere, they would keep the Russian and Chinese position of not recognising the American right to make any demands. This good cop bad cop routine being played by the Europeans and the Americans is now too exposed for people to continue ignoring it.

I think, war will come for Zionists before November. Also I think American soldiers will land in Israel very soon. coming summer would be very hot and hard for both side of conflict.

 

[hussainb72]

I think, war will come for Zionists before November. Also I think American soldiers will land in Israel very soon. coming summer would be very hot and hard for both side of conflict.

I have heard alot about the Iraqi PMUs preparing for attacks in the upcoming weeks. It wont be like a simple rocket attack, its said that they want to do proper attacks and disable the american bases in Iraq. On top of that, we can see the the Houthis have started doing some proper missions like the 2 recent attacks on the Saudi airbases, destroying 6 F15s and some ammunition storage. Also with how israel has changed its activities by moving inside the Lebanese border, we will see a response from Hezbollah as well.
Hopefully the americans will be out of the region soon inshallah.

 

[Kastor]

If Biden is willing to come to back to deal, then whether Iran is in the deal or not, then it will not matter. This issue of arms embargo is not a small one. If it is not lifted it is a blatant violation of a deal, and this time not just by the US but Europeans too. Iran leaving the JCPOA will serve to pressure Trump. Moreover, the sooner Iran leaves the deal, the quicker it can expand the program and have a stronger negotiating hand in the next negotiations (assuming there will another deal). The JCPOA has many flaws, and this was made obvious by Trump, thus in the next deal , Iran can demand much more. Compare an Iran with much larger centrifuge capabilities, outside of NPT etc to the Iran that entered the JCPOA negotiation (a deal that failed). Instead you want Iran not to gain all of this but rather stay in this deal, and for what reason exactly? Do not get me wrong, I can see your point if view, but I simply do not think it put Iran in a strong enough position. If the Europeans extend the embargo, then they are the ones that have killed the deal. Lets see if they will attempt it.

What can you gain by not waiting 5 months that's so critical? Also if the deal needs to be renegotiated then that's not JCPOA, so why would you need to strengthen your hand at all? Coming back to the deal is just that, coming back to what was negotiated, you don't need more cards to play if it's the same deal, LOGIC. If you're saying it's going to be renegotiated, then the deal is lost and Israel and the Neocons have won....it won't matter anyway....there goes another 3 to 4 years of sanctions while we hammer out something new. This is bad all the way around......just wait 5 months and play nice, keep the damn Friday Prayer idiots in check till then we may get these sanctions removed.

The biggest obstacle and enemies of Iran's progress are internal.....not external.

 

[SubWater]

I have heard alot about the Iraqi PMUs preparing for attacks in the upcoming weeks. It wont be like a simple rocket attack, its said that they want to do proper attacks and disable the american bases in Iraq. On top of that, we can see the the Houthis have started doing some proper missions like the 2 recent attacks on the Saudi airbases, destroying 6 F15s and some ammunition storage. Also with how israel has changed its activities by moving inside the Lebanese border, we will see a response from Hezbollah as well.
Hopefully the americans will be out of the region soon inshallah.

Iran can use Israel as strong pressure tools against Zionists in Washington and more importantly, Syrian ground has been changed.

 

[Philosopher]

What can you gain by not waiting 5 months that's so critical?

I just explained that in the post you quoted.

Also if the deal needs to be renegotiated then that's not JCPOA, so why would you need to strengthen your hand at all?

It is the basics of negotiations, the more cards you have to play, the more likely it is for you to gain more concessions.

Coming back to the deal is just that, coming back to what was negotiated, you don't need more cards to play if it's the same deal, LOGIC

And who said you have to come back to the same deal? If Iran leaves the deal, there is no need to assume it will just return to the JCPOA. Like I explained to you, the JCPOA is flawed and it will be renegotiated if Iran leaves.

. If you're saying it's going to be renegotiated, then the deal is lost and Israel and the Neocons have won....

Won how exactly? Iran leaving the JCPOA means a much less restricted Iranian nuclear program, right? Please explain what Iran loses and what the Neocons gain if Iran leaves the deal.

it won't matter anyway....there goes another 3 to 4 years of sanctions while we hammer out something new. This is bad all the way around......just wait 5 months and play nice, keep the damn Friday Prayer idiots in check till then we may get these sanction removed.

Why you're offering is not really a proper solution. You're basically asking Iran to take all these violations for no real reason. Like I explained to you:

1) If Biden wins, then he will certainly come to the negotiating table regardless whether Iran has left or not.
2) If Trump wins, there may be a negotiation but that in my opinion is dependant on the factors forcing Trump to come back. One of those is the size of Iran's nuclear program. That is precisely why I put forward the idea of Iran leaving the deal and expanding its program in response to the European&American violations. This will not only make it more likely for Trump to ask for a deal but It gives Iran a much stronger negotiating position.

My two scenarios above are not considering the scenario of Trump asking for a "new deal" before the US elections. Therefore, I see no real arguments for Iran not abandoning the JCPOA in retaliation for what is apparently to come. This vague and undefined idea of Israelis and Neocon "winning" is not a real argument so far.

 

[Kastor]

Wow, a whole page of fluff....dancing around the real subject, which is reason to wait 5 months vs leaving now. I never questioned your plan of action, only that we must wait 5 more months....FULL STOP, Period. No Biden is not coming to a deal that the real participant left.....ask me how I know, because I live here, he's not going to look like an idiot to make Iran happy....why? They don't need Iran....they don't care if you sell your oil or die economically.....it's Iran that has to care. They've been growing prosperous for 40 yrs while we just got by. There is a saying "can't see the forest for the trees". You are so closed off to other ideas my friend. This comes from too much academia and not enough real world experience. If you did have real world experience you'd know...they hold all the cards, as you can tell by EU and UN capitulating to them in the last couple of weeks.