Egypt's System Redundancies

[Quwa]

Greetings,

Can someone well versed in Egyptian military affairs explain to me the rationale behind Egypt's decision to equip itself with many different types of aircraft? I don't mean to demean it, I want to truly understand it, i.e. the specific roles the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29/35 would play versus the F-16, or the reason behind Ka-52 when it has AH-64, etc. Is there an underlying rationale behind this, i.e. is it intentional or is it because Egypt is responding to new unforeseen requirements, and is forced to diversify to this extent? Thank you!

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Because they have engineers that can learn all the different system - simple

 

[Stannis Baratheon]

Poor planning and a foreign policy. This leads to them not knowing which side they are on and sanctions can severely hamper their Air Force.

 

[Frogman]

Greetings,

Can someone well versed in Egyptian military affairs explain to me the rationale behind Egypt's decision to equip itself with many different types of aircraft? I don't mean to demean it, I want to truly understand it, i.e. the specific roles the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29/35 would play versus the F-16, or the reason behind Ka-52 when it has AH-64, etc. Is there an underlying rationale behind this, i.e. is it intentional or is it because Egypt is responding to new unforeseen requirements, and is forced to diversify to this extent? Thank you!

There are several dimensions to this.

First and foremost it's a political decision. The United States since 2011 has not been the most forthcoming partner or in any way trustworthy. Their insistence on refusing Egypt certain weapons systems has also left the EAF among other branches with certain glaring capability gaps. In order to fill those capability gaps alternate sources are traditionally relied upon.

In terms of military requirements Egypt is currently retiring its fleet of obsolete fighters completely (MiG-21/J7/MIII). It's a considerable fleet of 200+ aircraft. The intention was always to replace these fighters with a 4+ gen aircraft that would fill the capability gaps caused by the US refusal to export certain systems. Many fighters were mulled over the years and even the JF-17 was close to joining the ranks of the EAF in 2011 but the revolution put many contracts on hiatus (Rafale for one).

The MiG-29/35 was ultimately chosen to fill that gap and will mainly be used as an interceptor due to its air to air prowess. The Rafale will be a special missions craft, S/DEAD, long range strike, and A2A are its most likely roles. The Mirage 2000 will be retired in around five years, it has been serving since the 80s mainly as AWAC escort.

The Ka-52 will replace many Gazelles that are still used in the attack role (armed with HOT atgms). Apaches would have been great but with the recent delay of ten Apaches by the US during an insurgency in the Sinai (although they weren't urgently required to conduct ops) and their continuous objection to allowing the EAF the Longbow radar has made going elsewhere possible or required.

 

[Quwa]

There are several dimensions to this.

First and foremost it's a political decision. The United States since 2011 has not been the most forthcoming partner or in any way trustworthy. Their insistence on refusing Egypt certain weapons systems has also left the EAF among other branches with certain glaring capability gaps. In order to fill those capability gaps alternate sources are traditionally relied upon.

In terms of military requirements Egypt is currently retiring its fleet of obsolete fighters completely (MiG-21/J7/MIII). It's a considerable fleet of 200+ aircraft. The intention was always to replace these fighters with a 4+ gen aircraft that would fill the capability gaps caused by the US refusal to export certain systems. Many fighters were mulled over the years and even the JF-17 was close to joining the ranks of the EAF in 2011 but the revolution put many contracts on hiatus (Rafale for one).

The MiG-29/35 was ultimately chosen to fill that gap and will mainly be used as an interceptor due to its air to air prowess. The Rafale will be a special missions craft, S/DEAD, long range strike, and A2A are its most likely roles. The Mirage 2000 will be retired in around five years, it has been serving since the 80s mainly as AWAC escort.

The Ka-52 will replace many Gazelles that are still used in the attack role (armed with HOT atgms). Apaches would have been great but with the recent delay of ten Apaches by the US during an insurgency in the Sinai (although they weren't urgently required to conduct ops) and their continuous objection to allowing the EAF the Longbow radar has made going elsewhere possible or required.

I see. So at this stage is it safe to conclude that the Egyptian Forces are now gradually reducing their dependence on American-built systems, and are looking to prioritize non-U.S alternatives ahead of what Washington has to offer? And were past American purchases (e.g. older F-16s, Abrams, etc) influenced by the advent of U.S aid in the 1980s?

 

[Frogman]

I see. So at this stage is it safe to conclude that the Egyptian Forces are now gradually reducing their dependence on American-built systems, and are looking to prioritize non-U.S alternatives ahead of what Washington has to offer? And were past American purchases (e.g. older F-16s, Abrams, etc) influenced by the advent of U.S aid in the 1980s?

Yes.

US military aid to Egypt was restructured to end 'cash flow financing' and to focus on counter-terrorism, border security, maritime security and Sinai security. That alone spells the end of multi-billion dollar procurements and the acquisition of conventional weapons systems. I can only see Egypt using the aid to possibly maintain and upgrade (if essential) the capabilities it built up with the US. Whether this restructuring will survive after the Obama term who knows.

The advent of US aid was certainly a spur but the military at the time was looking for multiple sources of arms as well. Legacy equipment like the Mirage 2000 and Cortale from France and the J-7 from China point to that. The military was also looking to modernise and expand its own defence industry.

However economic stagnation under Sadat and Mubarak plus firing the highly rated Marshal Ghazzalla in favour of the status quo loving Tantawi saw many hopes and dreams dashed including the modernisation of Egypt's indigenous defence industry. Many of the systems still produced in Egypt were a result of Ghazzalla's efforts, the M1 line included.

 

[Quwa]

Yes.

US military aid to Egypt was restructured to end 'cash flow financing' and to focus on counter-terrorism, border security, maritime security and Sinai security. That alone spells the end of multi-billion dollar procurements and the acquisition of conventional weapons systems. I can only see Egypt using the aid to possibly maintain and upgrade (if essential) the capabilities it built up with the US. Whether this restructuring will survive after the Obama term who knows.

The advent of US aid was certainly a spur but the military at the time was looking for multiple sources of arms as well. Legacy equipment like the Mirage 2000 and Cortale from France and the J-7 from China point to that. The military was also looking to modernise and expand its own defence industry.

However economic stagnation under Sadat and Mubarak plus firing the highly rated Marshal Ghazzalla in favour of the status quo loving Tantawi saw many hopes and dreams dashed including the modernisation of Egypt's indigenous defence industry. Many of the systems still produced in Egypt were a result of Ghazzalla's efforts, the M1 line included.

That's really interesting, thanks. I imagine the purchase of the Rafale actually does spell a positive turn for the Egyptian Military in that it is finally able to procure the systems it needs in order to assert itself as a regional power. I am not purely talking about the fighters, but the A2A and A2G weapon systems that it comes with. I honestly believe Egypt will gradually build it up its fleet in increments, that fighter will be in production for some time, and it is a great opportunity to build a very good offensive nucleus.

Do you think the Egyptian defence industry will take the introduction of French and Russian fighters as an opportunity to actually develop its own subsystems? I think there is always room to develop stand-off A2G weaponry, and I know (HA-200) that Egypt does have a drive in it that can make this happen, given the right amount of time, money and foreign-sourced assistance.