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Duterte to China: Back off from Pag-asa Island

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April 6,2019

President Rodrigo Duterte has warned Beijing to back off from a disputed island in the South China Sea, warning of possible military action if China “touches” it amid rising tensions over the key waterway.

Duterte, aiming to attract trade and investment from the Asian superpower, has mostly withheld his early criticism of Beijing’s expansive claims to the sea—a point of regional contention because trillions of dollars of goods pass through it.

But as the military warned this week that hundreds of Chinese coast guard and fishing vessels had “swarmed” the Manila-held Pag-asa island, also known as Thitu, Duterte spoke out late Thursday.

“I will not plead or beg, but I am just telling you that lay off the Pag-asa because I have soldiers there,” Duterte said in speech to prosecutors.

“If you touch it, that’s another story. Then I will tell my soldiers ‘prepare for suicide missions,’” he added.

He also said he would park five Navy ships in the area and tell the Chinese that they were well within the country’s exclusive economic zone.

Duterte has repeatedly said war with China would be futile and that the Philippines would lose and suffer heavily in the process.

His words came after his Department of Foreign Affairs issued a statement calling the Chinese ships’ presence an “illegal” violation of Philippine sovereignty.

China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam have all staked claims to various islands and reefs as well as waterways in the sea, with rich petroleum reserves thought to sit deep beneath the waters.

In a major victory for Manila, an international maritime tribunal ruled early in Duterte’s presidency in 2016 that China’s claims to the area have no legal basis.

However, he has largely set aside that ruling and backed off on their once tense territorial dispute over the sea.

He has been criticized at home for taking too soft a stance on China and getting little of the billions of dollars in investment promised by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For its part, Beijing has played down the rising tension over Pag-asa, saying on Thursday that both sides had “exchanged views frankly, amicably and constructively” on the issue.

The United States, long-time Philippine ally and former colonial master, has moved to oppose any Chinese expansion in the sea.

For the first time, the US said in March that it would come to Manila’s aid in case of an “armed attack” in the South China Sea.

The US navy has also forcefully asserted its right to freedom of navigation in the area, repeatedly sailing close to the man-made islands and drawing Chinese protests.

In his campaign speech, Duterte said his remarks were not a warning, but advice to a friend.

“I’m trying to tell China: That Pag-asa [Island] is ours. We have been there since 1974. If that’s yours, why didn’t you drive us away? So, let us be friends but do not touch Pag-asa Island and the rest. Otherwise… things would be different,” Duterte said.

In interviews after the speech, however, the President returned to his normal rhetoric, saying war with China would be suicide, and that Beijing could launch a missile that could hit Manila in seven minutes.

“I am sure that it has something to do with the greater game of geopolitics and it is not directed to us. And I assure you that if they kill or arrest people there who are Filipinos, then that would be the time that we will have to decide on what to do,” he added.

The country’s military earlier said about 275 ships have swarmed the vicinity of Pag-asa Island from January to March this year.

However, the Department of Foreign Affairs on Thursday labeled as “illegal” the presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels swarming around the Kalayaan Island Group.


Senator Panfilo Lacson said Friday he will join President Duterte if he decides to visit Pag-asa Island, which is surrounded by Chinese vessels.

“I volunteer to join him in my capacity as an elected senator of the republic and as a freedom-loving Filipino,” Lacson said.

In a Twitter post, Lacson said that Pag-asa is part of the Philippines as he quoted lines from the Philippine national anthem stating that Filipinos would not allow any invaders and will die fighting for the country.

He said China should not be allowed to encircle, much less occupy Pag-asa Island.

Duterte said Thursday that he would not allow China to seize Pag-asa Island even as he maintained that the country must not go to war with the Chinese.

During the 2016 presidential campaign, then Davao City Mayor Duterte said if China will refuse to honor the decision of the Arbitral Court, he would personally go to the disputed territory to jet ski to the disputed areas and plant the Philippine flag.

Months after he won the elections, Duterte said the “jet ski” reference was only a hyperbole to drive home the point that he would uphold the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea.

“You cannot expect me to ride [on a jet ski], I don’t even know how to swim,” he said in an interview with Al Jazeera in October 2016. “If it overturns, you lose a president.”

In the House, Buhay Party-list Rep. Lito Atienza welcomed the rebuke issued by the Department of Foreign Affairs and appealed to the Chinese government to stop their purported “fishing operations” in Philippine territory.

“We are appealing to the Chinese leadership to refrain from any action that may deprive our Filipino fishermen from earning their living and benefiting from our natural resources. Pag-asa Island, as part of the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG), is included in the official demarcation of Philippine territory as defined by no less than the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

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“The mere presence of Chinese vessels in the area should have required Philippine permission. But for them to shoo away Filipino fishermen in an area clearly defined as within our territory is a violation of Philippine sovereignty,” he said.

In an interview on radio dzMM, the director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Laws of the Seas Jay Batongbacal said the Philippines should seek help from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jianhua claimed the Chinese ships were fishing vessels and were unarmed

“We have to unify within the region and come up with a single ASEAN position against China’s fishing fleet because we are not the only country receiving this kind of treatment,” he said in Filipino.
 
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Military action against China? It's better to just jump off a balcony rather. That is sucidal
Not a problem. Manila is backed by military alliance US and Japan. Although I agree, alone the Philippines have no chance now, so Duterte should step up military spendings purchasing submarines, fighter jets. Why not some squadrons F35?

All the best from the people of Vietnam

:tup:
 
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Not a problem. Manila is backed by military alliance US and Japan. Although I agree, alone the Philippines have no chance now, so Duterte should step up military spendings purchasing submarines, fighter jets. Why not some squadrons F35?

All the best from the people of Vietnam

:tup:

Bro if shit hits the ground the US and Japan won't come just like they didn't come for Crimea and East Ukraine.

They will opt to sacrifice Philippines for their own survival. They don't want to fight China period atleast not in this decade or the next maybe 2-3 decades from now they might be realistically ready but not now
 
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If Duterte thinks its a "suicide mission", that shows he knows the US will not come to assist PH, and the US-PH alliance treaty is just worthless toilet paper.
 
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Bro if shit hits the ground the US and Japan won't come just like they didn't come for Crimea and East Ukraine.

They will opt to sacrifice Philippines for their own survival. They don't want to fight China period atleast not in this decade or the next maybe 2-3 decades from now they might be realistically ready but not now
Consider this: if Philippines falls, Vietnam will be the next domino that falls. If Vietnam, Philippines fall, Taiwan will fall. Once China controlls the seas, all entry exist points, she will strangulate Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines into submission. Japan will be cut off from energy and food supply from the SC sea and Western Pacific. Millions of Japanese kids will die because of famine and starvation.

Even if the US refuses to come to Philippines’s rescue, I am 100 percent sure, Japan will come. Because Japan’s survival is at stake.

@Suika
 
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Consider this: if Philippines falls, Vietnam will be the next that falls. If Vietnam, Philippines fall, Taiwan will fall. Once China controlls the seas, all entry exist points, she will strangulate Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines into submission. Japan will be cut off from energy and food supply from the SC sea and Western Pacific. Millions of Japanese kids will die because of famine and starvation.

Even if the US refuses to come to Philippines’s rescue, I am 100 percent sure, Japan will come. Because Japan survival is at stake.

@Suika

The Japanese are not stupid they will chose China and make instead an alliance with them for their own existence. When push comes to shove all current alliance will go out of the window and new for survival alliance will appear. The same with South Korea.

The same with Vietnam they won't want any of that chinese forces pushing into their territory it would be easy to make alliance with them instead and keep on surviving.

Once first bullet is fired of potential ww3 or war everyone surrounding china will submit willingly to avoid massacre and make alliance with them
 
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The Japanese are not stupid they will chose China and make instead an alliance with them for their own existence. When push comes to shove all current alliance will go out of the window and new for survival alliance will appear. The same with South Korea.

The same with Vietnam they won't any of that chinese pushing into their territory it would be easy to make alliance with them instead and keep on surviving
Military alliance is alien to China strategic thinking. Chinese think they are center of the world, the top of human civilization, they will rather jump off window that making any alliance.
 
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Japan is the top investor in the Philippines. That'll give Japan political will to do something about pressure by China.

Japan recently donated spare helicopter parts to the Philippines. Another batch of spare parts is due this August. Japan has donated many other things like 10 medium size patrol parts, 5 patrol aircraft, a couple of high speed patrol boats. The two countries are currently in talks about Japan selling to the Philippines some land-based radars. Excess aircraft has also been mentioned. Some wonder if that could mean P-3 patrol aircraft.

Japan has diplomatic influence as well and might be able to coordinate diplomatic and economic cooperation from other CPTPP countries, treaty all the US, and recently EPA trade treaty partner the EU.

It'll depend on the scale of the fight to trigger all that. Japan won't want a senseless triggering of it. But they have some levers.

China has once did the same show of sending 200+ boats to the Senkaku islands. That was in the summer of 2016. Senkaku Islands still administered by Japan and now China is trying to make nice with Japan.

As China gets stronger, so too will the Philippines and Japan, so that'll maintain a balance of power.
 
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Japan is the top investor in the Philippines. That'll give Japan political will to do something about pressure by China.
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China tops list of Philippines' foreign investors in 2018
2019-01-11 17:36:02|
MANILA, Jan. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's investments in the Philippines reached 48.7 billion pesos (930 million U.S. dollars) in 2018, making China the Philippines' top foreign investor, a high-ranking Philippine official said on Friday.

Philippine Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez told a news conference that foreign investment, a major economic growth driver, hit 104 billion pesos (2 billion U.S. dollars) in 2018.

Lopez, who is also chairman of the Board of Investments, told Xinhua that China topped the list of foreign investors in the Philippines in 2018 with 48.7 billion pesos worth of investments "because of one big investment" project approved in December last year - the integrated iron steel plant in the Philippines.

Chinese firms Hebei Iron & Steel Group signed a memorandum of understanding last month with local steelmakers to invest in an iron and steel plant in the southern Philippines.

Lopez attributed the rapid increase in Chinese investments in the Philippines to the "improved relations" between the Philippines and China.

"Chinese investments have started to really pour in, and many of these are also the result of the presidential visits, the bilateral meetings between our two countries' leaders," he said.

"There are many more (Chinese investments) in manufacturing, in agriculture as well," he added.

According to the Board of Investments, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan and Malaysia were also the major foreign investors of the Philippines last year.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/11/c_137736703.htm
 
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China tops list of Philippines' foreign investors in 2018
2019-01-11 17:36:02|
MANILA, Jan. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's investments in the Philippines reached 48.7 billion pesos (930 million U.S. dollars) in 2018, making China the Philippines' top foreign investor, a high-ranking Philippine official said on Friday.

Philippine Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez told a news conference that foreign investment, a major economic growth driver, hit 104 billion pesos (2 billion U.S. dollars) in 2018.

Lopez, who is also chairman of the Board of Investments, told Xinhua that China topped the list of foreign investors in the Philippines in 2018 with 48.7 billion pesos worth of investments "because of one big investment" project approved in December last year - the integrated iron steel plant in the Philippines.

Chinese firms Hebei Iron & Steel Group signed a memorandum of understanding last month with local steelmakers to invest in an iron and steel plant in the southern Philippines.

Lopez attributed the rapid increase in Chinese investments in the Philippines to the "improved relations" between the Philippines and China.

"Chinese investments have started to really pour in, and many of these are also the result of the presidential visits, the bilateral meetings between our two countries' leaders," he said.

"There are many more (Chinese investments) in manufacturing, in agriculture as well," he added.

According to the Board of Investments, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan and Malaysia were also the major foreign investors of the Philippines last year.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/11/c_137736703.htm

That steel plant is a big project. It puts China at the top in 2018 with about 50 billion pesos. But investment projects happen over the course of years. That steel plant isn't going to be finished in just a few months. It'll take years to complete. Japan invested 54 billion pesos in 2015. 10s of billions have been in 2016, 2017, and 2018 each as well while during those times, investments from China were only about 1-3 billion pesos each year. Without that steel project, 2018 FDI would be about 2 billion pesos again.

We'll see if that steel plant continues forward and how 2019 FDI make up looks like.
 
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That steel plant is a big project. It puts China at the top in 2018 with about 50 million pesos. But investment projects happen over the course of years. That steel plant isn't going to be finished in just a few months. It'll take years to complete. Japan invested 54 million pesos in 2015. 10s of millions have been in 2016, 2017, and 2018 each as well while during those times, investments from China were only about 1-3 million pesos each year. Without that steel project, 2018 FDI would be about 2 million pesos again.

We'll see if that steel plant continues forward and how 2019 FDI make up looks like.
Even Hong Kong and Singapore invest more than Japan and Japanese economy is shrinking while China's rising, the gap will only increase in the future.
 
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Bro if shit hits the ground the US and Japan won't come just like they didn't come for Crimea and East Ukraine.

Or when they forgot to help Georgia during the South Ossetia/Abkhazia war, or Pakistan during the 71 war. The US has a long history of betraying its allies. I admire that about the Russians. Even though Russias financial clout has been diminishing in recent years, it has been resolute in supporting the allied Syrian regime for example. The Russians dont let down their allies easily. Philippines wont get any help from the US if shi# hits the fan.
 
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Even Hong Kong and Singapore invest more than Japan and Japanese economy is shrinking while China's rising, the gap will only increase in the future.

No they don't. Collectively speaking, Japan is still way ahead in past 5 years. Hong Kong has been at the 1-2 billion peso level for the past 5 years, well in 2013 it was about half a billion. So HK is not even close to either Japan or Singapore.

We'll see if China can translate larger economy in the future into corresponding level of higher investments in the Philippines.

Might be interesting to consider that the Netherlands has made big investments too. In 2015, they put in 82 billion, out-doing China's 2018 by a wide margin.
 
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