Dunya News Election Survey 2018 - Punjab

[Imad.Khan]

Elections 2018: Punjab to rule Pakistan, who to rule Punjab?
Last Updated On 14 June,2018 03:48 pm

With 141 seats, the elected members of Punjab actually determine whom to be given the throne?
(Dunya News) As the general elections 2018, draws near, the predictions and calculations for the most likely ruling parties in provinces and particularly in center, are being made. Constituencies are being surveyed to get an idea of the most promising candidate and the party contesting from. With 141 seats, the elected members of Punjab actually determine whom to be given the throne to rule Pakistan.

POWER POLITICS OF PUNJAB TO RULE PAKISTAN

Punjab plays the most crucial part in the power politics of Pakistan. Punjab alone constitutes 141 seats in National Assembly while the Punjab Assembly has 297 seats. According to the latest delimitations, Punjab’s first constituency for National and Provincial assemblies, is Attock adjacent to Khyber PakhtunKha while the last is Southern Punjab’s Rajan Pur.

According to the previous delimitations, the most populated province of Punjab was consisted of 148 constituencies which reduces into 141 after the latest delimitations, being done by the Election Commission of Pakistan after the Censor 2017.

Punjab power politics cannot be completed without considering the foremost and principal role of GT road. GT road comprises of 07 districts which constitutes 40 constituencies. PMLN secured 28 percent of Punjab seats from these districts. Out of these 40 constituencies, PMLN won 35 seats followed by PTI with 3 seats and PMLQ and Awami Muslim League each.

PMLN remained a governing entity in Punjab since a decade and successfully took over the term, one after another five year. Though the Panama Fiasco and the internal disturbances drag PMLN into hot waters but for the forthcoming election, would PMLN qualify to lead Punjab for another term or Tabdeeli-famed Imran Khan would succeed in bringing his change in the dynamics of accustomed politics of Punjab? PPP is also not running out of the game to win Punjab. PPP’s co-chairman Asif Zardari has also set a keen eye on Punjab.

To testify the claims made by almost all the major political parties to conquer the Punjab, Dunya News Program ‘Headlines’ conducted a series of surveys, have been done in constituencies across the country. To forecast the most promising political party on the canvas of Punjab politics, Punjab in general and overall, Lahore and Southern- Punjab were surveyed separately.

Punjab, in General

PMLN leads PTI, PPP and other parties in Punjab in general ahead of genral election 2018: Photo: Dunya Survey

According to the general provincial survey, Punjab still chants in the charm of Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz, leading with more than half of the majority of 53 percent followed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf with quite fair competition of 39 percent.

Also Read: PML-N s work in health sector is being praised globally: Shehbaz

Pakistan Peoples Party has shown the most disappointing and devastating situation across Punjab with only one percent public support.

Also Read: PPP to reclaim Punjab in next elections: Zardari


Lahore

PMLN leads PTI, and other parties in Lahore ahead of genral election 2018: Photo: Dunya Survey

Lahore has the same significant role in constituting a rule in Punjab as Punjab has in National Assembly. Lahore actually set the bars to constitute a government in Punjab.

Also Read: Imran s 11-point agenda for Naya Pakistan

The survey says that PMLN is leading with 57 percent confidence of people. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is next if not in tough competition than with 37 percent backing of voters in a substantial competition. Whereas, all other parties including PPP constitute 07 percent only, in total.


Southern Punjab

PTI leads PMLN, PPP and other parties in Southern Punjab ahead of genral election 2018: Photo: Dunya Survey

Southern Punjab is quite the rural part of the Punjab. The ratio of urban population in south Punjab is markedly thin than that of the rest of Punjab and migrated and settlers, who principally are agriculturalists, constitutes a huge number of it.

Also Read: Who joins whom? New political alliances & changing loyalties ahead of general election 2018

This rural population decides the fate of the politics under the hand of the feudal families and landlords ruling the region since ages.
Southern Punjab displays the interesting results after the recent exodus from different parties into PTI. As per the survey, Pakistan Tehrek-e-Insaf is overtly leading with fifty percent, followed by PMLN with 37 and other parties including PPP with 07 percent votes’ support in the battleground ahead of general election.



https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/443849-Elections-2018-Punjab-to-rule-Pakistan-who-to-rule-Punjab?

 

[Imad.Khan]

Punjab = 141 Seats

Lahore = 14 Seats

South Punjab =59 Seats

Full video

@ziaulislam @notorious_eagle @Zarvan @Zibago @war&peace @PakSword

 

[PakSword]

Punjab = 141 Seats

Lahore = 14 Seats

South Punjab =59 Seats

Full video

@ziaulislam @notorious_eagle @Zarvan @Zibago @war&peace @PakSword

Hmm south Punjab has more sense than north Punjab

 

[Imad.Khan]

Hmm south Punjab has more sense than north Punjab

This is exactly what @ziaulislam has been saying

 

[Zibago]

Elections 2018: Punjab to rule Pakistan, who to rule Punjab?
Last Updated On 14 June,2018 03:48 pm

With 141 seats, the elected members of Punjab actually determine whom to be given the throne?
(Dunya News) As the general elections 2018, draws near, the predictions and calculations for the most likely ruling parties in provinces and particularly in center, are being made. Constituencies are being surveyed to get an idea of the most promising candidate and the party contesting from. With 141 seats, the elected members of Punjab actually determine whom to be given the throne to rule Pakistan.

POWER POLITICS OF PUNJAB TO RULE PAKISTAN

Punjab plays the most crucial part in the power politics of Pakistan. Punjab alone constitutes 141 seats in National Assembly while the Punjab Assembly has 297 seats. According to the latest delimitations, Punjab’s first constituency for National and Provincial assemblies, is Attock adjacent to Khyber PakhtunKha while the last is Southern Punjab’s Rajan Pur.

According to the previous delimitations, the most populated province of Punjab was consisted of 148 constituencies which reduces into 141 after the latest delimitations, being done by the Election Commission of Pakistan after the Censor 2017.

Punjab power politics cannot be completed without considering the foremost and principal role of GT road. GT road comprises of 07 districts which constitutes 40 constituencies. PMLN secured 28 percent of Punjab seats from these districts. Out of these 40 constituencies, PMLN won 35 seats followed by PTI with 3 seats and PMLQ and Awami Muslim League each.

PMLN remained a governing entity in Punjab since a decade and successfully took over the term, one after another five year. Though the Panama Fiasco and the internal disturbances drag PMLN into hot waters but for the forthcoming election, would PMLN qualify to lead Punjab for another term or Tabdeeli-famed Imran Khan would succeed in bringing his change in the dynamics of accustomed politics of Punjab? PPP is also not running out of the game to win Punjab. PPP’s co-chairman Asif Zardari has also set a keen eye on Punjab.

To testify the claims made by almost all the major political parties to conquer the Punjab, Dunya News Program ‘Headlines’ conducted a series of surveys, have been done in constituencies across the country. To forecast the most promising political party on the canvas of Punjab politics, Punjab in general and overall, Lahore and Southern- Punjab were surveyed separately.

Punjab, in General

PMLN leads PTI, PPP and other parties in Punjab in general ahead of genral election 2018: Photo: Dunya Survey

According to the general provincial survey, Punjab still chants in the charm of Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz, leading with more than half of the majority of 53 percent followed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf with quite fair competition of 39 percent.

Also Read: PML-N s work in health sector is being praised globally: Shehbaz

Pakistan Peoples Party has shown the most disappointing and devastating situation across Punjab with only one percent public support.

Also Read: PPP to reclaim Punjab in next elections: Zardari


Lahore

PMLN leads PTI, and other parties in Lahore ahead of genral election 2018: Photo: Dunya Survey

Lahore has the same significant role in constituting a rule in Punjab as Punjab has in National Assembly. Lahore actually set the bars to constitute a government in Punjab.

Also Read: Imran s 11-point agenda for Naya Pakistan

The survey says that PMLN is leading with 57 percent confidence of people. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is next if not in tough competition than with 37 percent backing of voters in a substantial competition. Whereas, all other parties including PPP constitute 07 percent only, in total.


Southern Punjab

PTI leads PMLN, PPP and other parties in Southern Punjab ahead of genral election 2018: Photo: Dunya Survey

Southern Punjab is quite the rural part of the Punjab. The ratio of urban population in south Punjab is markedly thin than that of the rest of Punjab and migrated and settlers, who principally are agriculturalists, constitutes a huge number of it.

Also Read: Who joins whom? New political alliances & changing loyalties ahead of general election 2018

This rural population decides the fate of the politics under the hand of the feudal families and landlords ruling the region since ages.
Southern Punjab displays the interesting results after the recent exodus from different parties into PTI. As per the survey, Pakistan Tehrek-e-Insaf is overtly leading with fifty percent, followed by PMLN with 37 and other parties including PPP with 07 percent votes’ support in the battleground ahead of general election.



https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/443849-Elections-2018-Punjab-to-rule-Pakistan-who-to-rule-Punjab?

South Punjab is the key central punjab is favoring local interests over interests of the country sadly

 

[delta2]

The Pakistani deep state needs to learn a few lessons from the CIA (and the United States deep state in general)! The CIA is embedded into the important layers of state level governments. It is the state legislatures that make policies that directly impact the lives of the citizens. This implies that there is a severe need of creating newer provinces.

 

[QatariPrince]

PTI Minimum Estimate

20 KPK
02 Fata
02 Islamabad
02 Balochistan
05 Sind

Main nay minimum estimation ki hai seats ki. Koi yea na bolay is say zada seats lain gay. Jitni nikalain gay utna behtar hai per idea key lye yea estimation ki hai

That means PTI needs 70 seats from Punjab to cross 100 NA seats. Government wohi party banaye gi jis ki NA main minimum 100 seats hon gi.

 

[Imad.Khan]

The Pakistani deep state needs to learn a few lessons from the CIA (and the United States deep state in general)! The CIA is embedded into the important layers of state level governments. It is the state legislatures that make policies that directly impact the lives of the citizens. This implies that there is a severe need of creating newer provinces.

I reckon we should just get rid of all provinces and have govts at Divisional level. No need for provincial parliaments either.

PTI Minimum Estimate

20 KPK
02 Fata
02 Islamabad
02 Balochistan
05 Sind

Main nay minimum estimation ki hai seats ki. Koi yea na bolay is say zada seats lain gay. Jitni nikalain gay utna behtar hai per idea key lye yea estimation ki hai

That means PTI needs 70 seats from Punjab to cross 100 NA seats. Government wohi party banaye gi jis ki NA main minimum 100 seats hon gi.

Those 2 Balochistan seats, are they of Jamali and Rind?

 

[QatariPrince]

I reckon we should just get rid of all provinces and have govts at Divisional level. No need for provincial parliaments either.



Those 2 Balochistan seats, are they of Jamali and Rind?

Yea! Mujhy 2 say zada jeetnay ki umeed nahi. Pashtun Belt per kaam nahi kya PTI nay. Wahan kaam kertay tu 2 aur nikal saktay thy.

 

[ziaulislam]

South Punjab is the key central punjab is favoring local interests over interests of the country sadly

There is only one key its northern / central URBAN EDUCATED Punjab

Total seats in central/northern Punjab 103, urban seats 45 out of 103.
These 103 seats decide the fate of Pakistan and pmln know it
If pmln even won 70ish out 103 seats it will become the largest party. As PPPP which use to challenge it via KPK+SINDH+southern Punjab is finished and PTI doesn't has sindh
In 2013 it won 98 out of 103 seats !!@

Fate of Pakistan is in the hands of most educated central Punjab(45 Seats) which will vote again for educated PMLN

PTI Minimum Estimate

20 KPK
02 Fata
02 Islamabad
02 Balochistan
05 Sind

Main nay minimum estimation ki hai seats ki. Koi yea na bolay is say zada seats lain gay. Jitni nikalain gay utna behtar hai per idea key lye yea estimation ki hai

That means PTI needs 70 seats from Punjab to cross 100 NA seats. Government wohi party banaye gi jis ki NA main minimum 100 seats hon gi.

Largest party will form govt
PMLN will get 80-10 seats with clean swipe in central urban Punjab
PTI will get 40-70 seats with clean sweep in KPK urban areas
PPPP will get 30-40 seats with clean swipe in rural sindh
Urban Karachi I am not sure but seems people will vote again for MQM

Rural Kpk /baluchistan will give some votes to JUI/Ji

So let's agree that this has nothing to do with education, I fact most educated people believe in " Khata hey too lagata be hey concept "
Mqm, pml n usually does better in urban educated areas

However a gap is closing rapidly..39 vs 52 is actually 39+/-5 and 52+/-5

So difference could be just 5 points...
Lot will thus demand upon turn out actually...
So don't be surprised if PTI supporters pull a better performance in Punjab
The gap was 15 vs 60% in 2013

It's time people make their leaders accountable..its not about PML N vs PTI its about accountability...PMLN performance was very bad and they need to be out of power to learn that

Few unpredictable things

PML Q might steal s couple of seats
While grand alliance could make things tuff on sindh while mqm is broken and establishment Clearly wants PMLN out

 

[Imad.Khan]

Yea! Mujhy 2 say zada jeetnay ki umeed nahi. Pashtun Belt per kaam nahi kya PTI nay. Wahan kaam kertay tu 2 aur nikal saktay thy.

There is only one key its northern / central URBAN EDUCATED Punjab

Total seats in central/northern Punjab 103, urban seats 45 out of 103.
These 103 seats decide the fate of Pakistan and pmln know it
If pmln even won 70ish out 103 seats it will become the largest party. As PPPP which use to challenge it via KPK+SINDH+southern Punjab is finished and PTI doesn't has sindh
In 2013 it won 98 out of 103 seats !!@

Fate of Pakistan is in the hands of most educated central Punjab(45 Seats) which will vote again for educated PMLN


Largest party will form govt
PMLN will get 80-10 seats with clean swipe in central urban Punjab
PTI will get 40-70 seats with clean sweep in KPK urban areas
PPPP will get 30-40 seats with clean swipe in rural sindh
Urban Karachi I am not sure but seems people will vote again for MQM

Rural Kpk /baluchistan will give some votes to JUI/Ji

So let's agree that this has nothing to do with education, I fact most educated people believe in " Khata hey too lagata be hey concept "
Mqm, pml n usually does better in urban educated areas

However a gap is closing rapidly..39 vs 52 is actually 39+/-5 and 52+/-5

So difference could be just 5 points...
Lot will thus demand upon turn out actually...
So don't be surprised if PTI supporters pull a better performance in Punjab
The gap was 15 vs 60% in 2013

It's time people make their leaders accountable..its not about PML N vs PTI its about accountability...PMLN performance was very bad and they need to be out of power to learn that

Few unpredictable things

PML Q might steal s couple of seats
While grand alliance could make things tuff on sindh while mqm is broken and establishment Clearly wants PMLN out

As per Habib Akram who has conducted the polls, he reckons PTI will easily take 30 seats out of 39 from KPK. Going by the polls if PTI takes half of Southern Punjab seats that would be another 30 seats out of 59. Islamabad polls were conducted on only 2 out of 3 seats and both of them PTI was over 50%, lets assume that PTI will only win those 2. Balochistan also just 2 seats.

KPK = 30
S.Punjab = 30
ISB = 2
Balochistan = 2

That is 64 seats. The party that gets to 100 seats first will get Independents to start joining. That means PTI needs 46 more seats from FATA (12), North Punjab (82) and Sindh (61).

Its going to be a very interesting elections indeed.

 

[war&peace]

Punjab = 141 Seats

Lahore = 14 Seats

South Punjab =59 Seats

Full video

@ziaulislam @notorious_eagle @Zarvan @Zibago @war&peace @PakSword

I think the elections are supposed to be held on July 25.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Imran khan himself is contesting from my area in Karachi that is NA 243..this is confirmed seat for him... I know the ground realities of pechs, bahadurabad, gulshan e iqbal area. Add NA 243 to PTI tally as well.

From Karachi, NA 247 and NA 243 will likely to go to PTI.

 

[ziaulislam]

As per Habib Akram who has conducted the polls, he reckons PTI will easily take 30 seats out of 39 from KPK. Going by the polls if PTI takes half of Southern Punjab seats that would be another 30 seats out of 59. Islamabad polls were conducted on only 2 out of 3 seats and both of them PTI was over 50%, lets assume that PTI will only win those 2. Balochistan also just 2 seats.

KPK = 30
S.Punjab = 30
ISB = 2
Balochistan = 2

That is 64 seats. The party that gets to 100 seats first will get Independents to start joining. That means PTI needs 46 more seats from FATA (12), North Punjab (82) and Sindh (61).

Its going to be a very interesting elections indeed.

So yeah pti might end at 70 but than what about PML N it will easily hit 80-130 given urban Punjab 45 votes and central Punjab 103 votes..independents will run towards PML N..
So key us educated urban Punjab which hold 45 seats

Imran khan himself is contesting from my area in Karachi that is NA 243..this is confirmed seat for him... I know the ground realities of pechs, bahadurabad, gulshan e iqbal area. Add NA 243 to PTI tally as well.

From Karachi, NA 247 and NA 243 will likely to go to PTI.

But IK also going for multiple seats a good and bad ploy but still he will have to empty some seats

Honestly it should have been an electrol based presidential system