Dr. Qadeer responsible for N-proliferation: Musharraf

[Aamir Hussain]

My friend M.B.Qasim:

Try to engage in a positive discussion and not respond like a child on what MastanKhan Sahib has written. Ignoring his remarks is like ignoring what history has taught us in just the recent past.

My friend some food for thought:

1. What is our long range AA missile cover? Old SA-2??? They will never be able to lift off their launch pads. Our AA cover is inadequate at best even today.
2. Before any escalation of hostilities, majority of western intelligence assets (both space and stratospheric based ) would be deployed to monitor round the clock movement of our Nuclear Assets -- to ensure advance knock out intelligence and capability
3. BLA and others in Balochistan would be utilized to house Special Forces assets and pre position them for knock out blows to strategic rail and road assets that will limit the wheeled asset deployment to pre-designated launch sites. Saddaam did try to do the hide and seek but except for a handful of Scuds all else failed. I am not taking into account pre-positioning of assets in India or offshore.
4. Severe jamming of all types of radars will be experienced thus rendering the AF to launch for only point defense missions in fair weather. They will be easy targets for F22's and their F15E's. This is all if the airbases survive the first knock out sorties by Nighthawks.
5. Navy - the less said the better.

My friend our armed forces are geared up to fight a regional fight (not more that 500 NM) and that too with India and that is also now in doubt. Our capability and capacity to fight even India in 2000 - 2001 was severely diminished as compared to today.

If terrorists can attack the GHQ and penetrate the inner cordon today after years of WoT than u can imagine what would have happened if dedicated and extremely planned interdiction strikes happened than. We are facing a tough fight in the mountains as our Army is basically an infantry centric army taught to fight set piece battles against similarly trained Indian cousins.

As far as the nuclear umbrella is concerned -- everyone also knows about it and the consequences of launching a nuclear strike (Except for us Pakistanis who have no clue as to what it would do for us in a reciprocal exchange) - so don't u think they would have already planned for it and executed some of those plans??? They are not like us.

Is pulling Israel and India into a conflict and fighting a nuclear war with them and US better than hunting Osama? The answer is obvious. And this was the choice Mushi made keeping in view our military capabilities, Pakistan’s economic capacity, our standing in the Muslim world (We are a pariah state even in the Muslim world than ) and the world as a whole, and the alternative to not doing it. We were not alone in ditching the Taliban, KSA and UAE quietly withdrew their support as well way before we did.

The only problem with Mushi plan was that he did not execute it fully, otherwise this WoT would have long finished or the quantum would have been minimal. I think if Mushi is to be blamed – he is to be blamed for not carrying out what he set out to do in the first place. I am also sure that our Pan Islamic lobby in our armed forces must have a hand in this- remember the 11K Pakistani’s plan and still counting?

Your plan at best is a flawed one and not well thought out. Need to revisit it in light of MastanKhan Sahib has written and the recent lessons from Iraq.

You have said that your plan/option is not from the Iraqi playbook. I was in US then and Saddam did address the American public using all the ploys you mentioned, he also offered to lower the oil prices and promised open supply of oil to US from Kuwaiti wells. Once these things did not pan out he promptly sucked in Israel and embossed “Allah O Akbar” on the Iraqi flag to play the Islamic card and started threatening Israel!!! He even launched couple of Scuds to garner popular Arab support. And all this to capture more oil wealth and thrash out his differences with his Arab brothers.

But than when some one asked Lee Quan Yu after his visit to Pakistan as to what advice did he give to the Pakistanis, he smiled and replied “What advise can you give to people whose lives start after death!” The problem is not Mushi, Osama, Bush etc. the problem is our behavior as responsible citizens of this world with a nuke in our pocket. We think having a nuke is just like having a glorified super bomb – it is not – it can help annihilate Pakistan and Pakistanis as a nation if we do not show maturity in our thoughts. It is an asset and at the same time a liability - it all depends upon how we behave.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

The Chagi event

When the mountain ranges in Chagi changed their colour to amber, the emotional sound of Takbeer by an named scientist was exactly what every Pakistani was feeling. This was the time when to our nation a sole Scientist on his own had given us the prize of nuclear capability. Dr Qadir was indeed a public hero and nothing short to what respect or devotion once our founding father had.

The unsung heroes, real nuclear Scientists
I remember that there was an open tussle between scientists like Dr Summer Mobarik Mund (the actual nuclear scientist) and Dr Abdul Qadir. The other scientists were complaining that this egotistic & self cantered “metallurgist” was taking all the credit for the Pakistan’s nuclear effort. Dr Summer was very vocal in saying why that guy is taking credit for something that is not even his doing. Yes he brought some blue prints and worked on the original models of the reactors but enriching uranium and conducting the nuclear tests was totally not his field.

Other stories of Dr Qadir’s obnoxious behaviour also came out but were quickly dismissed because no other scientist had any publicity & awareness among the general masses. Dr Summer was loathed and criticised (including myself) for questioning the all holy and infallible Dr Qadir Khan.

The Bust & the fall
Come the day when the Americans put the proofs of the proliferation in front of the Pakistani government and eventually the fingers pointed at Dr Qadir. I felt sick when he had to address the nation and admit the blame. Like millions of other Pakistanis I felt bad that our national “hero” had sacrificed himself for the sake of Pakistan. I would have preferred to live in this state of ignorance but alas that was not to be.

The mask falls
The Good doctor afterwards went on a personal vendetta, threatening to “expose” the national secrets, name the people and all that do exactly what the secrecy act prohibited from. And I dared my self to question the motives, moral and the character of this metallurgist. The doctor tells his daughter to start the media war in the west while he time & again arranges meetings with foreign media who were hungry for any material to sling mud at Pakistan. The good doctor totally disregarded the fact that every time he opened his in front of the foreign media & shady personalities, he was not only shaming the people of Pakistan but the state as well. his continued behaviour led to his house confinement even that didn’t deter him and he resembled more like a disgraced politician/ showbiz person who is spoiling to expose this sexual & other embarrassing encounters.

After all this I realised that Dr Summer Mubarik was not too wrong after all. The unquestioned, unlimited power and access to national resources Dr Qadir had at his disposal just corrupted him eventually. I am in no position to question his motives when he came to Pakistan on ZA Bhutto’s invitation. But I cant rule out that this absolute power and lack of monitoring eventually led him to personal greed.

He is now playing at the emotions of the people of Pakistan. Knowing well that the time and money invested in his personal image over the decades has made him an infallible hero and any one questioning him would be quickly dismissed by the public hence he is willing to satisfy his bruised pride at the expense of the Pakistani state and even the testicular cancer can not come in path of revenge.

Request to my fellow Pakistanis
Don’t you find it insulting that these public figures can always bank and rely on our emotion? That they know that the power of our emotions will remove any chance of sane and logical thinking? Isn’t it disgusting that the same political lot (both in opposition and in power) has so many times has molested this nation of its very right to live with dignity yet we continue to support it? Doctor Qadir is no different. His current actions & motives about speaking to international media are totally different to someone who took the blame and sacrificed his career for the nation.

So coming to the request. I just wonder (based on my limited knowledge & understanding). If Pakistani state had the secret dealings with Iran &Libya, would they have had been too quick and open to put the blame on Pakistan? I mean how readily these two “brotherly Muslim” countries exposed our cover leads to another possibility doesn’t it? That since the state of Pakistan not involved in this proliferation so they were not obliged to any under the table agreement to keep Pakistan name a secret? Secondly do you think the west has some special love for our armed forces & state that it didn’t blame Pakistan but only pointed out to Dr Qadir’s network? Why not both? In all other case they blame Pakistan & ISI from global worming to solar storms or the continued ulcer problems the Afghan administration has. Why would have have only stopped at the “national hero”.

For me Dr Qadir is a fall guy and I agree with Perwaiz Musharraf
Please do refute my reasoning but refrain from emotions and personal abuse. I will simply ignore ranting & insulting. I find it uterly disgusting that we are made a fool every time just because our high emotions block our vision and contact with the brain

 

[Aamir Hussain]

Baloch Sahib:

Very well articulated. My very thoughts indeed. I was in the same predicament as you when all of the Chagi episode unfolded infront of the nation and later on the the Iran-Libya affair.

 

[paritosh]

India does not have an operational nuclear device till today.
All test had been proven dud.

YouTube - Indian nuclear test failure - Part 1

^^Just look at the test site.... do you think an atom bomb has been exploded here?


Now look at real nuclear explosion test.
YouTube - Pakistan nuclear test - ????????

and this my friend is the exact way to determine the potency of nuclear science!
go to you-tube and watch it's video!

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Why should anyone read further when you make no effort to separate fact from fiction?

come on Sir
thats true, you did give ready made nukes to Israel. thats your defined national policy

I thought that the premise of Tom Clancy's "SUM of ALL fears" was not entirely fictional. Israel did almost come close to nuking Syria with US bomb

 

[paritosh]

After Israel it is India to whom US have exported ready made nukes.
failed Indian tests seriously tilted the balance of regional power to Pakistan's favor.
Therefore, bailout of India was mandatory.

and that is exactly what we sought to achieve by imploding the bombs earlier than you guys?tilt the balance in your favor to be bailed out by the us?

 

[Irfan Baloch]

After Israel it is India to whom US have exported ready made nukes.
failed Indian tests seriously tilted the balance of regional power to Pakistan's favor.
Therefore, bailout of India was mandatory.
..

what is your source on this claim? re US bomb supply to India?

do you know when that happen? did Pakistan have its own bomb by then?

did India have that US bomb during or before 1965, 1971 war? why do you think India didnt use it? are you saying India still doesnt have its own Nuclear bomb?

Handing over nukes to Iran and Korea amounts to handing them to individuals.

please elaborate you lost me there

 

[Aamir Hussain]

The initial Pakistani bomb was of Chinese design which itself was a Russian copy and the Russian Nukes ha its roots in Germany!!!!

So we are back to square one. India did get some help from Russia through exposure of their scientists to Russian Technical Institutes. After all, these Russian institutes were not producing US weapons but those of Russian design -- hence the Russian influence on Indian Nukes.

We on the other hand went alone in the beginning and than when China thought it appropriate due its strategic interests (And not out of any love for us), started helping us -- hence our initial design were of Chinese origins.

The Israeli connection is quite complex -- it is made up of various scientists of Jewish origins working in Nuclear weapons programs in France, GB, & USA siphoning materials, plans and training to Israeli scientists. The underpinning was that both US & UK turned a blind eye to these activities till the late sixties and early seventies or Until the Dimona revelation by Vanunu.

The Dimona Reactor was produced by the French and this is where the Israeli Weapons program started. Wonder why the French never get the heat as US?

My 2C worth.

I do not believe that US actually gave a Nuclear device to Israel.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

The Dimona Reactor was produced by the French and this is where the Israeli Weapons program started. Wonder why the French never get the heat as US?

My 2C worth.

I do not believe that US actually gave a Nuclear device to Israel.

nice Exposé,
the own program has to base on some model and then improve upon it. there is nothing wrong with that and any such criticism is misplaced.

Re Israeli Nuclear quest, I think the staged "shock" or heat played out in USA/ UK was just a foreplay & for media consumption to justify their claim to be impartial & true to their stated non-proliferation.

Israel was “believed” to be supplied by America during the Arab- Israel conflict. I cant recall or locate the sources. Just happened to read some printed material and some documentaries on the Arab-Israel war.

I think when it comes to Israel, the usual rules & resolutions and policies don’t apply. Due to its special & preferred status America is willing to swallow even the attack on its reconnaissance vassal USS liberty by Israeli air force. Whats more the US was prepared to go as far as nuking Egypt for the unfounded and unproven suspicions that Egypt was involved.

Looking at such a thoughtless, trigger happy and obnoxious attitude of US, it only supports the idea that Americans would have had been equally ruthless and would have provided Israel with the nuclear weapon. Yes I am hypothesising.

 

[nightcrawler]

This thread hell>>is full of ambiguities/assumptions & what not though I stand with the BATMAN on the issue that AQk can be proved accurately as somewht a traitor or whtever

 

[Aamir Hussain]

I too read the story of US supplying Israel with a nuclear device during the later Arab Israeli conflict. I will try to dig out some material. But I doubt it. But than again who knows.

I agree with you that most of the Nuclear Weapons programs had their basis in some one else's designs. I believe that the only program that never saw the daylight in its original shape was that of Germany during WWII

As far as the games that big nations play including US, it depends upon the national psyche. American can be extremely ruthless as they demonstrated after Okinawa landings and the decision to Nuke Japan.

But than Spaniards were equally ruthless in annihilation of Aztecs, or the subjugation of millions by GB for their mercantile system. For that matter the Germans and their Third Reich and than the Soviets. I guess it goes with hunger for global domination.

My 2C worth -- let me see what I can dig on Israel.

 

[Aamir Hussain]

sorry I did a double post

 

[Aamir Hussain]

1
Israel’s Nuclear Program
By Volha Charnysh,
September 3, 2009

Background
An independent nuclear deterrent has been widely seen as a matter of national survival in Israel due to its history. For the Jewish people the state of Israel came to represent the restoration of their homeland after the 19-century-long Diaspora that followed the collapse of the Herodian kingdom in the 1st century CE.

1 The land of Israel then became a part of the Roman and Byzantine empires, and from the 7th century CE had been governed by successive Islamic dynasties. By the 1800s, fewer than 25,000 Jews remained in the area. However, in the 20th century, the Jewish presence in the region grew dramatically as a result of anti-Semitism in Europe and the subsequent Holocaust perpetrated by Nazi Germany.

2 To address the problem, the movement of Zionism advocated the establishment of an independent Jewish state.

3 With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, the region was placed under British mandate from the League of Nations. According to the Balfour Declaration of 1917, Britain was to facilitate establishing a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, while preserving the “civil and religious” rights of the non-Jewish population.

4 The British efforts to bring the Jews and the Arabs together failed, however, and on November 29, 1947, the General Assembly of the newly founded United Nations voted to divide Palestine into two states. On May 14, 1948, the Jewish people proclaimed the State of Israel, which was immediately recognized by the United States, the Soviet Union, and many other states.

On the very next day, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq invaded the newly founded state. After a year of fighting, a ceasefire was concluded and a temporary border – the Green Line – established, but the hostilities between Israel and its Arab neighbors never ceased.

5 In its 60 years of independent existence, Israel’s expanding settlements have been frequently attacked by the Arab states as well as by non-state actors, most importantly the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). The disputes over territory and the status of refugees are ongoing, and the lessons learned in the Suez Crisis (1956-57), the Six Day War (1967), the War of Attrition against Egypt (1967-70), the Yom Kippur War (1973), as well as the numerous attacks by Palestinian groups against Israelis around the world, convinced the Israeli leadership that only nuclear weapons would protect the country.

6 Aware of the existential threats Israel faced, its allies closed their eyes on Israel’s nuclear exploits, and France even provided the necessary technology.

7 In 1949, a special unit of the Israeli Defense Force Science Corps was sent out on a survey of the Negev desert to locate uranium reserves. In 1952, the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) was created. Ernst David Bergmann, an advocate of an Israeli nuclear weapons program

8 and the head of the Ministry of Defense's Research and Infrastructure Division, was appointed IAEC chairman.

2
Israel progressed quickly. By 1953, a new method of producing heavy water was developed, and in the fall of 1956, Paris agreed to provide Israel with an 18 Megawatt (MWt) research reactor. After the Suez Crisis (1956-57), however, France promised to build a 24 MWt reactor instead and, in protocols that were not committed to paper, a chemical reprocessing plant. The plant was constructed in secret, outside the IAEA inspection regime at Dimona, under the leadership of Col. Manes Pratt of the IDF Ordinance Corps.

9 In 1959-1960, Britain sold 20 tons of heavy water as well as beryllium and lithium-6 to Israel, advancing its nuclear program even further. Feeling compunctions in May 1960, the French government pressured Israel into promising that it had no intention of producing nuclear weapons, would not reprocess plutonium, would make the existence of the reactor public, and would complete its construction without French assistance.

10 The United States first detected the Dimona construction after U-2 overflights in 1958.

11 The complex was variously explained as an agricultural station, a textile plant, and a metallurgical research facility. Only in December 1960 did Israel announce that Dimona was a nuclear research center built for “peaceful purposes.”

12 US inspectors subsequently visited the reactor, but failed to identify its true purpose.

13 Nevertheless, as early as December 8, 1960, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) issued a report outlining Dimona's implications for nuclear proliferation. By the end of 1968, the CIA publicly estimated that Israel had 10-20 nuclear weapons.

14 In February 1969, Henry Owen, chairman of the State Department’s Policy Planning Council, wrote to Secretary of State William Rogers, “Intelligence indicates that Israel is rapidly developing a capability to produce and deploy nuclear weapons, and to deliver them by surface-to-surface missile or a plane. Recognizing the adverse repercussions of the disclosure, the Israelis are likely to work on their nuclear program clandestinely till they are ready to decide whether to deploy the weapons.”

15 Aware of the consequences and admitting the irreversibility of the development, US National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger sent a memorandum to President Richard Nixon on July 19, 1969, warning him that “the Israelis, who are one of the few peoples whose survival is genuinely threatened, are probably more likely than almost any other country to actually use their nuclear weapons.”

16 By September 1969, US intelligence knew that Israel had completed “several sites
providing operational launch capabilities.”

17 If some uncertainty did remain, it was only as to whether Israel was days or months away from possessing an operational nuclear arsenal.

18 Although the United States did not approve of the Israeli nuclear program, it barely tried to stop it. The secret Richard Nixon-Golda Meir understanding allowed the leaders of the two countries to continue on with their policies without publicly acknowledging the emergence of a new nuclear weapons state. As experts Avner Cohen and William Burr point out, even in a classified congressional hearing in 1975, the State Department did not officially agree with the CIA estimate that Israel had the bomb.

19 There is no evidence that Israel has ever carried out a nuclear test. However, on November 2, 1966, a possible test – perhaps a zero yield or implosion test – occurred in the Negev desert, and in 1979 a US Vela satellite detected a double flash of light at or near the Indian Ocean surface – believed to be Israel’s joint nuclear test with South Africa – but this was never confirmed.

20 By 1986, leaks by Mordechai Vanunu, an Israeli technician who worked at the nuclear plant in Dimona,

21 led to the estimates of Israel assembling 100-200 fission weapons.

22 In May 1989, the director of the CIA indicated that Israel may have been working on a thermonuclear weapon.

23 On October 31, 1998, the United States and Israel signed a Memorandum of Agreement, which committed the United States to enhancing Israel's “defensive and deterrent capabilities.”

24 The United States pledged to defend Israel against “direct threats to Israel's security arising from the regional deployment of ballistic missiles of intermediate range or greater.”

25 The agreement now acts as “a virtual US umbrella” over Israel against missile attack.

26 This did not stop Israel from enhancing its own nuclear capabilities, however. In June 2000, reports surfaced that Israel will arm submarines with nuclear-armed cruise or ballistic missiles.

27 By 2003 Israel had allegedly modified the Harpoon cruise missile to have nuclear warheads.

28 Today Israel’s arsenal is believed to consist of 75 to 200 weapons, comprising bombs, missile warheads, and possibly non-strategic (tactical) weapons.

29 In January 2009, the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI) ranked Israel as the sixth world nuclear power (after the five UN Security Council permanent members) on the basis of the number of deployed nuclear warheads.

30 Unlike the U.S., Russia, UK, France and China, however, Israel is not a signatory to
the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Israel’s arsenal has never been officially confirmed or denied. Israel continues to maintain its so called “strategic ambiguity.”

31 This approach was meant to avoid the incentives within the Arab world to develop nuclear parity with Israel, comply with French conditions of complete secrecy
resulting from French-Israeli nuclear cooperation, protect the United States-Israeli
understanding, and leave the door for international aid open.

32 Israel declared that it will not be the first state to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East and is on record as supporting a WMD-free Middle East. This way Israel benefits from being perceived as a nuclear power while at the same time not suffering the adverse consequences of being one.

33
Current Issues

The tactic of nuclear ambiguity has hardly made Israel safer. Waves of violence still shake the region. After the conflict between Hamas and Israel in December 2008,

34 the fragile ceasefire was reached on January 17, 2009 and remains in force today. Moreover, three other states in the region – Iran, Iraq and Syria – have been suspected of aspiring to develop nuclear programs. In the past, Israel tried dealing with such threats unilaterally. On June 7, 1981 Israel bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor Osirak in “Operation Opera,” and in September 6, 2007 it launched an air strike, “Operation Orchard,” against a presumed nuclear site in Syria.

35 Today, it is Iran’s nuclear ambitions that are a primary concern. In a parliamentary meeting on January 18, 2008, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said, “All options that prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities are legitimate within the context of how to grapple with this matter.”

36 The potential
consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities are still debated in the international community.

37
Bennett Ramberg, who served in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs during the George H.W. Bush administration, draws attention to another nuclear-related danger in the Middle East: the possibility that Iran or Hezbollah could attack Israel's plutonium production reactor at Dimona. According to Ramberg, the effects caused by the strike would be similar to a substantial radiological weapon or dirty bomb.

38 An Iranian attack would become even more likely were an Israeli strike on Iran’s enrichment facilities to occur.

39 Israel is the only country in the Middle East that is not a member of the nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Other countries in the region have repeatedly pressured Israel to disarm. Since the 1980s, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has passed annual 4 resolutions calling upon Israel to join the NPT as a non-nuclear weapons state. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has initiated a security dialogue with the Israeli government, seeking Israeli support for a Middle East Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone. However, little progress has been made.

 

[BATMAN]

what is your source on this claim? re US bomb supply to India?

do you know when that happen? did Pakistan have its own bomb by then?

did India have that US bomb during or before 1965, 1971 war? why do you think India didnt use it? are you saying India still doesnt have its own Nuclear bomb?

please elaborate you lost me there

India may have some thing equivalent to dirty bomb but not in real sense as nuclear bomb.
I have posted a you tube link in my earlier post where Indian scientist exposing the reality about Indian nukes.
Think by logic India exploded its supposedly various nuclear device at Pakistan border in soft land.. while Pakistan never felt it.
Settelites above may have also picked up those failed tests and since the time of test India is desperate to have nuclear technology from US.
After wards US military officers have made many secret visit to India and even US war vessels also docked at India and we know US vessels always carry nuclear devices.

In 70's it was also US who proliferated nuclear technology to India via its private firms... namely GE.
There is good research work by Dr. Shireen Mazari at the developments.

India does have huge storage of chemical weapons.
US is completely ignoring Chemical & biological weapons of India while always discussing Pakistani nukes.
What do you think...... it was bad luck of Zardari to have so many natural calamities at the same time.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

India may have some thing equivalent to dirty bomb but not in real sense as nuclear bomb.
I have posted a you tube link in my earlier post where Indian scientist exposing the reality about Indian nukes.
-------------
In 70's it was also US who proliferated nuclear technology to India via its private firms... namely GE.
There is good research work by Dr. Shireen Mazari at the developments.



What do you think...... it was bad luck of Zardari to have so many natural calamities at the same time.

thats speculation of Indian media, nothing proven. I doubt that the commentator has the technical know how or the security clearance to know what is being claimed

my question was regarding the alleged supply of US N-Bomb to India that you claim was provided to tilt the balance back in Indian favour

by the way, yet again your last sentence in this post has again knocked me off completely.
what are you trying to say?
these calamities are US made?
or are they caused because of the bad omen of Zadari?


not sure how all this is relevant to Dr Qadir's threat to expose Pakistan in front of the world