Dr. K’s Rx for China: The US and China must avoid the "duel of the century"

[Martian2]

^^^ I have reported your vulgar post. If you cannot communicate in a civilized manner, please refrain from posting. Thank you.

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Regarding the topic of China and the United States, China should avoid a military confrontation with the U.S. until China becomes fully developed. Nothing should be permitted to hinder the rise of China's economic and military development.

In 2050, when China is at full strength, the hawks may entertain the possibility of a more aggressive foreign policy stance vis-a-vis the United States. Until that time, a military clash will hinder China's development and it must be avoided if possible.

While China is unimaginably stronger compared to thirty years ago, the logic of mutual cooperation with the United States (e.g. an important market for Chinese manufactured goods, joint ventures, joint research, etc.) for accelerated industrialization and elevated standards of living are still true today. This rationale will remain true until about 2050. By 2050, China should be able to match the United States carrier battle group for carrier battle group, stealth fighter for stealth fighter, MIRVed ICBM for MIRVed ICBM, etc.

Now is not the time for confrontation. Every strategic thinker knows that you do not make an aggressive move until you are fully prepared. Currently, the military advantage clearly belongs to the United States. Until China achieves equal military power, it is unwise to assume an aggressive posture. That option belongs in the future.

 

[below_freezing]

^^^ I have reported your vulgar post. If you cannot communicate in a civilized manner, please refrain from posting. Thank you.

----------

Regarding the topic of China and the United States, China should avoid a military confrontation with the U.S. until China becomes fully developed. Nothing should be permitted to hinder the rise of China's economic and military development.

In 2050, when China is at full strength, the hawks may entertain the possibility of a more aggressive foreign policy stance vis-a-vis the United States. Until that time, a military clash will hinder China's development and it must be avoided if possible.

While China is unimaginably stronger compared to thirty years ago, the logic of mutual cooperation with the United States (e.g. an important market for Chinese manufactured goods, joint ventures, joint research, etc.) for accelerated industrialization and elevated standards of living are still true today. This rationale will remain true until about 2050. By 2050, China should be able to match the United States carrier battle group for carrier battle group, stealth fighter for stealth fighter, MIRVed ICBM for MIRVed ICBM, etc.

Now is not the time for confrontation. Every strategic thinker knows that you do not make an aggressive move until you are fully prepared. Currently, the military advantage clearly belongs to the United States. Until China achieves equal military power, it is unwise to assume an aggressive posture. That option belongs in the future.

This assumes the US does not pressure China and suppress China's development using methods other than war, and perhaps war itself.

The recent BBC lie about Chinese hostages being taken in Pakistan is a clear example of CIA propaganda operations.

Sometimes you have to play a daring game where the first one to blink loses.

 

[Martian2]

This assumes the US does not pressure China and suppress China's development using methods other than war, and perhaps war itself.

The recent BBC lie about Chinese hostages being taken in Pakistan is a clear example of CIA propaganda operations.

Sometimes you have to play a daring game where the first one to blink loses.

China's economy is growing at almost 10% a year (and her currency is appreciating 5% a year). The United States is growing at a little over 2%. Why not wait 40 years when China will clearly dominate the United States economically and militarily?

You do not fight a world boxing champion when he is at his strongest. Currently, the United States has the world's largest economy and military. Time favors China. Let time do its work. By 2050, China will be the new world economic and military champion. She can do whatever she wants in the future.

Playing a daring game and taking foolish risks against the world's current military superpower is unwise. As the years pass, the lack of funds will cut the U.S. military to shreds (e.g. the production of F-22s was shut down). Also, China will be given time to build a truly formidable military. China should be more aggressive after she gains the upper hand, not before.

The example that you provided is trivial in the great game between China and the United States. The outcome is not in doubt. Patience is a Chinese virtue. Just wait. Any realpolitik strategist would agree.

China Pays for Growth with Rising Inflation

"China Pays for Growth with Rising Inflation
By George Leong May 19, 2011, 11:03 AM Author's Website

China is the second-largest economy in the world and is continuing to roll along at a nice pace. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded U.S. GDP growth to 2.3% this year from the previous 2.9% but concurrently raised China’s GDP growth to 9.9% this year—up from the previous 9.7%. This is why you need money in China."

 

[below_freezing]

China's economy is growing at almost 10% a year (and her currency is appreciating 5% a year). The United States is growing at a little over 2%. Why not wait 40 years when China will clearly dominate the United States economically and militarily?

You do not fight a world boxing champion when he is at his strongest. Currently, the United States has the world's largest economy and military. Time favors China. Let time do its work. By 2050, China will be the new world economic and military champion. She can do whatever she wants.

Playing a daring game and taking foolish risks against the world's current military superpower is unwise. As the years pass, the lack of funds will cut the U.S. military to shreds (e.g. the production of F-22s was shut down). Also, China will be given time to build a truly formidable military. China should be more aggressive after she gains the upper hand, not before.

The example that you provided is trivial in the great game between China and the United States. The outcome is not in doubt. Patience is a Chinese virtue. Just wait. Any realpolitik strategist would agree.

China Pays for Growth with Rising Inflation

"China Pays for Growth with Rising Inflation
By George Leong May 19, 2011, 11:03 AM Author's Website

China is the second-largest economy in the world and is continuing to roll along at a nice pace. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded U.S. GDP growth to 2.3% this year from the previous 2.9% but concurrently raised China’s GDP growth to 9.9% this year—up from the previous 9.7%. This is why you need money in China."

Sometimes you do not choose war. War chooses you. I am not talking about offensive strikes against the US. I am talking about a US imposed war against China.

 

[Martian2]

Sometimes you do not choose war. War chooses you. I am not talking about offensive strikes against the US. I am talking about a US imposed war against China.

After ten years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States is weary of war and running out of money. The U.S. is also preoccupied with a drone war in Pakistan and possibly a surreptitious war in Yemen. Furthermore, the U.S. is busy bombing Libya. The American plate is full.

The United States will not choose a war against China. The U.S. likes to steamroll weak minor countries. Sometimes, the U.S. becomes bogged down in a quagmire in conflicts against weak countries, because the U.S. rules of engagement prohibit the U.S. from fighting at full strength. Against China, the United States will fight a very different war. Against a near-peer, the United States will fight dirty and warfare will quickly become unrestricted.

Many U.S. lawmakers have already warned Taiwan that if it declares independence, the U.S. will not come to its aid. Just like Georgia, the United States is unlikely to render aid if Taiwan is the instigator. The U.S. seeks to avoid a conflict with near-peer China. Long term, the United States understands that China will become its successor and the U.S. wants good relations with China.

Similarly, outside of China's stated core interests/red lines (e.g. Taiwan, South Tibet, and South China Seas), China must show equal pragmatism and continue the tradition of the last 40 years in avoiding military conflict with the United States. This is a proven win-win strategy and China should continue this policy of maximizing cooperation with the United States and minimizing conflict wherever possible. This is to both countries' mutual advantage.