DPP victory, what course of action should China be prepared to take ?

[Zsari]

Not really bro. Hk's situation is totally different from Taiwan, For one, we 'leased' Hong Kong from China after the opium war, so when the term of the leased expired, we had to hand China's back it's territory. Hong Konger's had no say in this, in fact you will be shocked to know that had Hong Konger's been allowed to choose/vote for a handover, they would have overwhelmingly voted to remain under Britain.

You mean no one told you that HK isle was actually ceded to Britian, so it was British territory. Only the New Territory was leased.

 

[Aepsilons]

Not really bro. Hk's situation is totally different from Taiwan, For one, we 'leased' Hong Kong from China after the opium war, so when the term of the leased expired, we had to hand China's back it's territory. Hong Konger's had no say in this, in fact you will be shocked to know that had Hong Konger's been allowed to choose/vote for a handover, they would have overwhelmingly voted to remain under Britain.
So if anything you shouldn't use Hk's 'assimilation' as a model for Taiwan, for if you do, then it will mean Taiwan will overwhelmingly choose to remain independent. lol

Leased? Mike, the Opium War was a war leveled against China by the British with the context and aim of establishing British spheres of interest in China. Let's be frank here , my friend, the siphoning of Qing dynasty's silver and gold reserves was done under the cover of opium trade.

In regards to Hong Kong's return to the Mainland, I suppose i'm looking at Taipei's government reshuffling as the pretext. Tho I believe Tsai Ing Wen is a reformist, I believe that ultimately se will work with the mainland in establishing a mechanism where Taiwan will enter union with the mainland through a 2+1 mechanism.

Do I think Tsai Ing Wen will declare independence? Highly unlikely. Do I believe Taiwan , under Tsai, will see a renaissance between Tokyo and Beijing? Absolutely! Highly possible.

Will US defend Taiwan ,watch the video from 1:10:07

The United States will not. Neither does Taiwan want the United States to intervene. Neither does Japan want it as well. A war in the region will serve neither Taipei's, Tokyo's, Beijing's interest. The West , yes.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

DPP won the election not a surprise, however this is not to much of a concern they will not declare independence, that window of opportunity was gone in the 90's. They will keep status quo. The DPP is obviously going to increase ties with Japan and US, strengthen the ROC armed forces, and keep up the usual anti china rhetoric. I however do see if the DPP steps out of line Beijing will enforce economic pressure, have the remaining countries that recognize the ROC to break off relations, and speed up the PLA's modernization now that is it in power. Just my thoughts.

I agree completely, @Hu Songshan . There is no reason for Taiwan under the DPP to do anything other than maintain the status quo. The fascinating question, however, is how to define "if the DPP steps out of line" from Beijing's standpoint. Can you please explain Beijing's red lines, from your perspective? Just how far does "status quo" go as it relates to Taiwan potentially strengthening ties with countries other than China?

The Economist had an interesting article several years ago about China and soft power, but here's an especially relevant passage:

http://www.economist.com/node/21541714

in his recent book, “On China”, Henry Kissinger revealed how impressed he was by the ancient strategic wisdom Chinese officials seemed to draw upon when he visited the country in the 1970s as America's national security adviser. Mao, he noted, “owed more to Sun Tzu than to Lenin” in his pursuit of foreign policy. To some historians Mao was a dangerously erratic despot. To Mr Kissinger, he was “enough of a Sun Tzu disciple to pursue seemingly contradictory strategies simultaneously”. Whereas Westerners prized heroism displayed when forces clashed, “the Chinese ideal stressed subtlety, indirection and the patient accumulation of relative advantage”, Mr Kissinger enthused in a chapter on “Chinese Realpolitik and Sun Tzu's Art of War”. Praise indeed, from the West's pre-eminent practitioner of Realpolitik, whose mastery of the art of ideology-free diplomacy enabled President Nixon's visit to China in 1972.​

How China has changed in recent years. If we dispassionately analyze the situation today, I ask your honest opinion: today, is it the CCP (Xi Jinping) or the DPP that stresses "subtlety, indirection and the patient accumulation of relative advantage"? Is it the CCP or the DPP that "prizes heroism displayed when forces clash" (who is it that implies that there is a military solution to this issue, and even seems eager for it)?

China has a "soft power" problem. China has proven that is is a master at extracting the best from precedents, so it would be well served by further examining the effects and origins of American soft power after WWII, and more recently, the EU's (Germany's) achievements through soft power in the last two decades. PDF isn't conducive to high-level discussions, so it's not worth elaborating, but China would have far more success in the long run by extending the "Chinese Dream" to include Taiwan (and, ultimately, the whole world) rather than have it directed against Taiwan, as it is today.

That's all from me. I broke my silence on PDF out of the abundance of respect I have for you, @Hu Songshan , so I hope you will forgive my brevity and lack of follow-up.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Don't worry, Tsai is the Angela Merkel of Asia and look where that treacherous cow has led not only Germany into, but the whole EU.

 

[oprih]

Status quo will be maintained, if not Taiwan will get a tough lecturing from China.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Status quo will be maintained, if not Taiwan will get a tough lecturing from China.

As Nihonjin1051 pointed out in one of his earlier post I read, the trade ties between Taiwan and China is quite integrate in many ways today. IMO Taiwan prosperity is linked to the Mainland today.

The newly elected Tsai In-Wen honeymoon period may be over shorter than she expected if she cannot bring about economic prosperity or job opportunities to the island she promised the people.

It is very easy to criticize your opponents, the KMT Party from the side-line or even support the Sunflower Movement where the student occupied the parliament in an undemocratic manner without checking the consequences of such action when you are not in the decision making chair. (South Korea in signing the FTA has the upper hand today.

An offended or hostile Mainland China is simply NOT GOOD for business. As I see it, Taiwan GDP number may fall or even enter into contraction unless the DPP can find new market to replace those from China. USA the world biggest market at the moment is getting protectionist and EU has still not recovered. Oil prices is down to a new record.

Yes. I hate to be in her chair after making so many promises during the election.

Maybe she is something special, a SUPERWOMAN.

 

[Aepsilons]

View attachment 287782

Bro! Oh no! Lol

As Nihonjin1051 pointed out in one of his earlier post I read, the trade ties between Taiwan and China is quite integrate in many ways today. IMO Taiwan prosperity is linked to the Mainland today.

The newly elected Tsai In-Wen honeymoon period may be over shorter than she expected if she cannot bring about economic prosperity or job opportunities to the island she promised the people.

It is very easy to criticize your opponents, the KMT Party from the side-line or even support the Sunflower Movement where the student occupied the parliament in an undemocratic manner without checking the consequences of such action when you are not in the decision making chair. (South Korea in signing the FTA has the upper hand today.

An offended or hostile Mainland China is simply NOT GOOD for business. As I see it, Taiwan GDP number may fall or even enter into contraction unless the DPP can find new market to replace those from China. USA the world biggest market at the moment is getting protectionist and EU has still not recovered. Oil prices is down to a new record.

Yes. I hate to be in her chair after making so many promises during the election.

Maybe she is something special, a SUPERWOMAN.

Pray tell me, my Singaporean friend, what do you think of Taiwan's call for the Senkakus engagement with Japan? Do you think Mainland will follow? :]

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Bro! Oh no! Lol

Pray tell me, my Singaporean friend, what do you think of Taiwan's call for the Senkakus engagement with Japan? Do you think Mainland will follow? :]

The position of the ownership of Shenkaku or Diaoyutai Island has always been consistent whether it is Taiwan (RoC) or China (PRC).

If former FM Mihara at the instigation of US Sec. of State Hilliary Clinton had not ordered the expulsion and arrest of the Chinese fishermen in the first place, the status quo would have been maintain up till today or as both Japanese PM Tanaka and China Chairman Mao says, for the future generation to agree upon.

Tsai Ing-Wen call for engagement with Japan is merely a peace initiative with Japan (Maybe under pressure from her secret backer USA).

But to be seen as betraying China's stance meaning both RoC or PRC position on the ownership f those island is quite beyond her mandate of a newly elected President. It is like Japanese saying "committing Karakiri".

Let not forget Taiwanese would readily rejoin China as one nation if only China allows RoC to rule over her instead of the CCP. The so-called One China is really about who will be in control. There is NO DOUBT about the status of Taiwan as an integrate part of China.

IMHO China will follows if Japan will renounce its position and return the island back to STATUS QUO as a DISPUTED TERRITORY. Since I do not see that coming, it will be difficult and China position will not changed.

Let pray that the situation will not escalated into a skirmish or even a war. IMO Without third party and outsider instigation, there will be hope for PEACE in the region.

 

[Aepsilons]

The position of the ownership of Shenkaku or Diaoyutai Island has always been consistent whether it is Taiwan (RoC) or China (PRC).

If former FM Mihara at the instigation of US Sec. of State Hilliary Clinton had not ordered the expulsion and arrest of the Chinese fishermen in the first place, the status quo would have been maintain up till today or as both Japanese PM Tanaka and China Chairman Mao says, for the future generation to agree upon.

Tsai Ing-Wen call for engagement with Japan is merely a peace initiative with Japan (Maybe under pressure from her secret backer USA).

But to be seen as betraying China's stance meaning both RoC or PRC position on the ownership f those island is quite beyond her mandate of a newly elected President. It is like Japanese saying "committing Karakiri".

Let not forget Taiwanese would readily rejoin China as one nation if only China allows RoC to rule over her instead of the CCP. The so-called One China is really about who will be in control. There is NO DOUBT about the status of Taiwan as an integrate part of China.

IMHO China will follows if Japan will renounce its position and return the island back to STATUS QUO as a DISPUTED TERRITORY. Since I do not see that coming, it will be difficult and China position will not changed.

Let pray that the situation will not escalated into a skirmish or even a war. IMO Without third party and outsider instigation, there will be hope for PEACE in the region.

 

[yusheng]

someone very excited here,

first, taiwan issue is Chiense internal issue, none of japanese businesss, if japan want to interfere, just try. no matter how taiwan says about Daoyudao, and SCS, the strength there is PRC, can japan act as a ostrich..

second, there is smell of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere again here, just forget the old dream, my japanese friend, first you kick the US soldiers out of your territory, be an independent country.

 

[AndrewJin]

someone very excited here,

first, taiwan issue is Chiense internal issue, none of japanese businesss, if japan want to interfere, just try. no matter how taiwan says about Daoyudao, and SCS, the strength there is PRC, can japan act as a ostrich..

second, there is smell of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere again here, just forget the old dream, my japanese friend, first you kick the US soldiers out of your territory, be an independent country.

Exactly.
China will never be a true friend to any tributary of U.S of A.
A country without independency should be ignored.

 

[Aepsilons]

Exactly.
China will never be a true friend to any tributary of U.S of A.
A country without independency should be ignored.

Why do you sound so angry, my old friend?

someone very excited here,

first, taiwan issue is Chiense internal issue, none of japanese businesss, if japan want to interfere, just try. no matter how taiwan says about Daoyudao, and SCS, the strength there is PRC, can japan act as a ostrich..

second, there is smell of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere again here, just forget the old dream, my japanese friend, first you kick the US soldiers out of your territory, be an independent country.

Naturally, anything involving Taiwan is always of Japanese National Security.

 

[XiaoYaoZi]

Why do you sound so angry, my old friend?



Naturally, anything involving Taiwan is always of Japanese National Security.

You just fantasy too much.

 

[AndrewJin]

You just fantasy too much.

He is always.

 

[Aepsilons]

You just fantasy too much.

Why is it fantasy? Taiwan is , and shall always be, of vital interest to Japan. Given, the island was a former Imperial Crown Colony for 50 years. There is the historical, as well as economic-political interest, of course.