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Doomsday scenario: IMF paints a gloomy picture of Pakistan’s economy

the imf is an institution that heaps misery onto nations, it is nothing more than the economic arm of the anglo american empire.

countries need to ween off imf killer programmes and find independence, i read that gadaffi was going to start his own fund that african nations could dip into to replace imf killer loans, no wonder he came to a brutal end, it was a great idea.
 
the imf is an institution that heaps misery onto nations, it is nothing more than the economic arm of the anglo american empire.
countries need to ween off imf killer programmes and find independence, i read that gadaffi was going to start his own fund that african nations could dip into to replace imf killer loans, no wonder he came to a brutal end, it was a great idea.
Come on guys, they don't force nations to take money. Nations ask them.

Don't take from them. Improve national economic policies for generation of funds and repayment of all loans at faster rate.
 
Come on guys, they don't force nations to take money. Nations ask them.

Don't take from them. Improve national economic policies for generation of funds and repayment of all loans at faster rate.

there is no room given by the western powers to use any alternative, options are limited to basically western natins or the imf, as i said earlier, gadaffi wanted to create his own independent fund, now imagine a "strings free" source of credit for africa to develop?

that being said, that does not excuse or absolve the IMF from the accusation that its loans are "killer loans" when they are given.


they bleed nations dry and undermine a nations sovereignty by forcing countries to implement their policies, its a vicious cycle that hooks nations onto imf loans at a great cost, india should know from the 90's.
 
Have mercy on ppl of Pakistan, don't give any extention, no more loan cuz it will end up in the pockets of corrupt leaders
Recover all stolen money and deduct it from loan plz plz plz
 
Of course there would be hardship ad as usual poor people would suffer more. Nevertheless it is the ultimate truth that you cannot indefinitely carry on spending more than you earn.

It is not rocket science to know that obvious measures to be taken are:

A. Cut down imports by:
1. Banning import of all food items that are produced in Pakistan. For example most affluent people eat ‘lurpak’ imported butter instead of having to do with Pakistani produce.
2. Banning import of all luxury gopds and foreign manufactured cars. Everyone should use locally made/assemble cars.
3. Banning import of all items such as clothes etc. that can be locally manufactured.

The above measures, may lead to inflation. With a ban on import on food items, it can result in shortage, which in turns has an inflationary effect on price. On the other hand, taxation of non-essential commodities and imported items is a better way to go.

B. Cut down Gov’t expenditure especially items involving FE element by:

1. Severely restricting foreign travel on gov’t business and cutting down number of hangers on the President/PM & other ministers can bring along when they travel including Hajj or Umra on Gov’t expense.
2. Restricting expenses of the President, Prime minister and Governor houses.
3. Restricting number of ministries & advisers.
4. Ban on public sector new employment
5. Reducing existing employment by eliminating all duplication.
6. Privatize the white elephants such as PIA & Railways & WAPDA.

Most of the above items as a % of overall expenditure will not be much. The 1,2,3 will not put a dent. Point 4 may result in increase in unemployment, if, the public sector is a major absorber of talent. Point 6 - there are those that believe that Railways should be privatised, I personally believe, that government has a strong role to play in development of rail systems in a developing country. The problem is more to do with accountability and neglect as far as Pakistan railways is concerned.
and

C. Increasing income by:

1. Taxing all income including agricultural income.
2. Meticulous follow up on income tax by asking for explanation of the extravagant style of living especially of the Customs & Excise & Income tax department staff.
3. Closing down loopholes of tax avoidance.

Completely agree with you that strict collection of taxes is required. Before one starts taxing agricultural income it is more prudent to frst bring in land reforms. Not very aware of the situation of this in Pakistan.
All of the above have been tried many times by different countries and met with success. But all these actions do is improve short term balance of payment and improve tax to GDP ratio.

Long term cure is sustained GDP growth for which you need investor confidence and continuous FDI. None of these is currently happening in Pakistan. For example, how can we expect growth in Quetta or Peshawar or Karachi when a person leaving his house in the morning to earn his daily bread is not sure whether he will be alive to return home in the evening? Investor is afraid that he or his family will be kidnapped for ransom.

Once it is guaranteed that life of the workers and of foreign staff is safe; flight of capital will disappear and FDI will flow in. Thus utmost priority needs to be given to tackling sectarian and religious terrorism. I am hoping against hope that some cruel Messiah will emerge following the chaos that would result when Pakistan defaults on her debts; sure thing if IMF refuses to bail Pakistan out. One can arguably ask ‘Would the economic hardship immediately following Pakistan going bankrupt would be worth the possible long term benefit?’

In my view, there are only two options available to Pakistan, either reform herself or end up as a failed state. Knowing my countrymen, I doubt if we would ever reform if we keep getting bailed out. Refusal of IMF bailout package may force us to reform ourselves.

The most important thing is setting up educational institutions. There are only 3 ways for a country to improve.

1. Enforce education in the primary system
2. Increase the number of students enrolling in to universities
3. Setup as many centres of excellence as possible in higher education


This ofcourse is my personal opinion.
It is also stupid to deny that Pakistanis could possibly fail to/ or are unable to reform and all we get is severe economic hardship. It is the fear of this possibility that has forced successive Pakistani governments to go to IMF with a begging bowl.

I admit that my views are highly controversial and would welcome constructive criticism.

The only way Pakistan will develop will be like India and not China. Not because of the government, but, inspite of the government.
 
the imf is an institution that heaps misery onto nations, it is nothing more than the economic arm of the anglo american empire.

countries need to ween off imf killer programmes and find independence, i read that gadaffi was going to start his own fund that african nations could dip into to replace imf killer loans, no wonder he came to a brutal end, it was a great idea.



For the record Qaddafi’s fall had nothing to do with IMF. Libya being oil rich had FE reserves of more than $70-billion in 2011 at the start of the protests in Libya. Muammar Qaddafi had been in power for 42 years and the opposition to his rule within Libya had been simmering for a long time. Ease with which Ben Ali in the neighbouring Tunisia; in power for 23 years; was overthrown encourage Libyan opposition to start anti Qaddafi protests.

I have read many articles, both pro and anti Qaddafi including the article about African fund. In my view all of this is speculation. Only rational explanation of Qaddafi's fall is probably the oil. If Qaddafi had not been sitting on about 75-billion barrels of oil reserves, it is doubtful that West would have intervened. Let us also not forget that it was the Arab League who formally asked the United Nations to protect civilians that resulted in the UN Security Council Resolution 1973 authorizing limited use of force against the Qaddafi regime.

I see from the posts in this thread that many members don’t have clear understanding of the role of IMF in the world economy. My post did not imply that I don’t like IMF or that IMF is an unnecessary evil. IMF has 188 member countries and its financing comes from the contribution from each of the member country. US is the largest contributor, thus it has the biggest say in the IMF award.

Broadly speaking, any country unable to pay her international bills poses potential problems for the stability of the international financial system which the IMF is supposed to protect. IMF loans are meant to help member countries tackle short term balance of payments problems, stabilize their economies, and restore sustainable economic growth. The crisis prevention role is at the core of IMF lending.

Simultaneously, IMF needs to safeguard that its loan will be repaid , therefore the Bank insists on certain economic reforms to create conditions that IMF experts think would put the country’s economy on right track.

IMF does not finance projects. IMF facility is similar to a temporary over draft from the bank that has to be repaid as agreed and is stopped if the conditions are not met. Nearly 50% of the IMF lending has been to the industrial countries, some of it very successful, thus it would be wrong to blame IMF for the ills of Pakistani economy. The worst that can be said about IMF is that its experts can be wrong and that conditions often only cause suffering without ensuring eventual cure. Some what similar to 'Panadol' reducing the temperature but not really fighting the infection that caused the high temperature.

However, IMF does not voluntarily offer facility, member countries approach IMF for it. Most of the economic problems occur because of over spending (Greece being the prime example). IMF conditions force the governments to reduce spending especially eliminating the subsidies which in turn cause hardship to the common man. Country’ rulers tend to put the blame on the IMF whereas the hardship is always direct result of incompetence of the ruling elite.

In Pakistan’s case everyone knows that circular debt is one of the root causes of power shortage. This is generated thru theft of electricity & non-payment of electric bill by many. However when IMF will insist on raising the electricity prices to balance the book; everyone will blame IMF.

It also is common knowledge that WAPDA, Railways, PIA & the Steel Mill are eating up nearly Rs 400-billion in subsidies. GOP has been printing money to make up the short fall resulting in spiralling inflation and fall in Rupee value. Since the debt repayment is in dollars, more Rupee funds are required for international debt servicing making next year’s budget deficit even greater hence need to print more money. The cycle goes on ad infitim.

Don’t you think that our deficit financing will be drastically reduced if the white elephants listed above are privatised? This will however cause unemployment because thousands would lose their jobs thus increasing misery of the poor.

Nevertheless the demons of circular debt and of subsidies have to be tackled sooner or later if Pakistan economy is to be put on solid foundations as no country, factory, shop or even a family can survive for long if expenditure continuously exceeds income. Refusal of IMF facility would only hasten the inevitable. I would personally rather have it sooner and get it over with.
 
For the record Qaddafi’s fall had nothing to do with IMF. Libya being oil rich had FE reserves of more than $70-billion in 2011 at the start of the protests in Libya. Muammar Qaddafi had been in power for 42 years and the opposition to his rule within Libya had been simmering for a long time. Ease with which Ben Ali in the neighbouring Tunisia; in power for 23 years; was overthrown encourage Libyan opposition to start anti Qaddafi protests.

I have read many articles, both pro and anti Qaddafi including the article about African fund. In my view all of this is speculation. Only rational explanation of Qaddafi's fall is probably the oil. If Qaddafi had not been sitting on about 75-billion barrels of oil reserves, it is doubtful that West would have intervened. Let us also not forget that it was the Arab League who formally asked the United Nations to protect civilians that resulted in the UN Security Council Resolution 1973 authorizing limited use of force against the Qaddafi regime.

I see from the posts in this thread that many members don’t have clear understanding of the role of IMF in the world economy. My post did not imply that I don’t like IMF or that IMF is an unnecessary evil. IMF has 188 member countries and its financing comes from the contribution from each of the member country. US is the largest contributor, thus it has the biggest say in the IMF award.

Broadly speaking, any country unable to pay her international bills poses potential problems for the stability of the international financial system which the IMF is supposed to protect. IMF loans are meant to help member countries tackle short term balance of payments problems, stabilize their economies, and restore sustainable economic growth. The crisis prevention role is at the core of IMF lending.

Simultaneously, IMF needs to safeguard that its loan will be repaid , therefore the Bank insists on certain economic reforms to create conditions that IMF experts think would put the country’s economy on right track.

IMF does not finance projects. IMF facility is similar to a temporary over draft from the bank that has to be repaid as agreed and is stopped if the conditions are not met. Nearly 50% of the IMF lending has been to the industrial countries, some of it very successful, thus it would be wrong to blame IMF for the ills of Pakistani economy. The worst that can be said about IMF is that its experts can be wrong and that conditions often only cause suffering without ensuring eventual cure. Some what similar to 'Panadol' reducing the temperature but not really fighting the infection that caused the high temperature.

However, IMF does not voluntarily offer facility, member countries approach IMF for it. Most of the economic problems occur because of over spending (Greece being the prime example). IMF conditions force the governments to reduce spending especially eliminating the subsidies which in turn cause hardship to the common man. Country’ rulers tend to put the blame on the IMF whereas the hardship is always direct result of incompetence of the ruling elite.

In Pakistan’s case everyone knows that circular debt is one of the root causes of power shortage. This is generated thru theft of electricity & non-payment of electric bill by many. However when IMF will insist on raising the electricity prices to balance the book; everyone will blame IMF.

It also is common knowledge that WAPDA, Railways, PIA & the Steel Mill are eating up nearly Rs 400-billion in subsidies. GOP has been printing money to make up the short fall resulting in spiralling inflation and fall in Rupee value. Since the debt repayment is in dollars, more Rupee funds are required for international debt servicing making next year’s budget deficit even greater hence need to print more money. The cycle goes on ad infitim.

Don’t you think that our deficit financing will be drastically reduced if the white elephants listed above are privatised? This will however cause unemployment because thousands would lose their jobs thus increasing misery of the poor.

Nevertheless the demons of circular debt and of subsidies have to be tackled sooner or later if Pakistan economy is to be put on solid foundations as no country, factory, shop or even a family can survive for long if expenditure continuously exceeds income. Refusal of IMF facility would only hasten the inevitable. I would personally rather have it sooner and get it over with.

if you think oil was the only reason for invasion then I would say your worldview is narrow.

oil in libya only accounted for 2 percent of global reserves, not a massive amount.

what gadhafi threatened to do was remove the anglo american domination of the financial system, this is even more intolerable than sitting on a vast oil reserve.

the IMF promotes the building up of foreign exchange for nations, not development or infrastructure but promoting the anglo american financial system of having the dollar as the world reserve currency.

what gadhafi did was give black africa a chance to break out of IMF shackles, therefore he had to go.
 
if you think oil was the only reason for invasion then I would say your worldview is narrow.

oil in libya only accounted for 2 percent of global reserves, not a massive amount.

what gadhafi threatened to do was remove the anglo american domination of the financial system, this is even more intolerable than sitting on a vast oil reserve.

the IMF promotes the building up of foreign exchange for nations, not development or infrastructure but promoting the anglo american financial system of having the dollar as the world reserve currency.

what gadhafi did was give black africa a chance to break out of IMF shackles, therefore he had to go.


No “invasion took place”. It was more a military intervention as no non- Libyan forces were involved on the ground. The intervention involved attacks from the air only.

On March 12, 2011 Arab League called on the Security Council to impose no fly zone over Libya to protect civilians from the attacks by the Libyan Air force. Formal request was conveyed by the Oman Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Abdullah. The resolution by was proposed by the Lebanese UN Ambassador Nawaf Salam. The resolution 1973 was passed 2 days later.

Military intervention was started by the French on the 19th of March 2011 when they attacked Libyan Armoured units and air defence installations. Other NATO members including UK & the US joined in later. UAE & probably Qatar also took part in the operation. Among the casualties was on UAE F-16 which git damaged upon landing back at the base in Italy.

For the record Libya has approximately 3 % of the total world reserves which is nothing to be sneezed at. Libya was an Italian colony until 1943. After the Second World War Libya came under the control of UK and France. It was granted independence in 1951 and become a kingdom under King Idris. 27 year old Moammar Qadhafi led by a small group of Military officers took over Libya on Sept. 1, 1969.

Qaddafi nationalized British Petroleum in 1971. In 1973, Libya announced the nationalisation of oil major Hunt's assets in the Sarir field in retaliation for US support of Israel. Later in the year the regime issued a decree nationalising US-owned Occidental, transferring 51% of all funds, rights, assets, shares and interests to the state. The Oasis Group also signed a similar agreement affecting Continental, Amerada, Marathon and Shell.

In 1974 further nationalisation activity took place, with Qadhafi nationalising three US companies by seizing the remaining 49% share of California Asiatic Company, American Overseas Petroleum Company and the Libyan-American Oil Company. By 1975 the assets of almost all companies working in Libya were either fully nationalised (such as BP) or majority owned by the Libyan State, who held a 63% of the assets of German Wintershall, 85% of Austrian OMV, 59.2% of the Oasis Group and 50% of the assets of Italian Agip.

I am no fan of IMF but I like to analyse the data before I put the blame on a financial entity that has no military power of its own and certainly not enough leverage to seduce Arab League to put in formal request to the UN without which the intervention would not have taken place. Libyan Oil is preferred feed for the Italian, Spanish and French Mediterranean refineries. French were in the forefront and the aircrafts used Italian basis. That is why in my opinion Oil was one of the main reasons for this intervention as I doubt that the NATO action was for purely sentimental reasons. No doubt Arabs, especially the rich Gulf States were also sick of the antics of maverick Qadhafi was wanted him removed.

However, if in your wisdom you still insist that IMF is the real culprit, you have every right to believe whatever you feel is the truth.
 

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