Doklam 2018 - Forecast

[Indus Pakistan]

Okay. This is how I expect things to pan out over the next year in the contested Doklam region. By end 2018 the Chinese will have extended the road [which India blocked this summer] all the way south to Jampheri Ridge.

(a) Chinese PLA to move combat infantry units and dig in at [Red 1] securing the western flank. This as we already know is being done right now ~ with 1,800 troops which is about two battalions.

(b) We are in winter now. As soon as snow begins to thaw in spring 2018 expect road construction to commence at [Blue 2] under the protection of PLA troops on their western flank. The road then will be extended south to Jampheri Ridge [White 3].

When this happens Indian Army will have a choice. To move forward and engage with PLA infantry [Red 1] or just accept fait accompli. I think they will just accept the latter. And don't expect any rocks to be thrown this time. The PLA combat units will be armed and under orders to fire under the slightest Indian provocation. In face of this Indian Army will exercise maximum restraint. Jampheri Ridge will become a PLA forward position threatening all of Silgur Corridor.

Once the Indian Army is blocked off by PLA - snow thaws in spring the road will be extended south to Jampheri Ridge from which Silguri in India can be threatened.

From atop the Jampheri Ridge - Gyomochen PLA has Silguri/Chickens Neck covered. India will be left in losing position with PLA literally winning by being on the "top".

A simplified schema of how things have and will play out in 2017/2018.

So having played "Nostradamus" lets see how things play out over next 12 months. I invite other members to give their predictions. Next year we can 'size' how things went.


@AUSTERLITZ @AndrewJin @Chinese-Dragon etc

 

[Pangu]

There is a building already on Jampheri ridge, the question is, to whom does it belong to & will the road eventually lead to it?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Donglang itself is extremely important in a strategic sense, since the Donglang plateau overlooks India's Chicken's Neck corridor.

Certainly China will not stop until our infrastructure crosses Donglang from top to bottom.

 

[AndrewJin]

Hmm.....Expect more hindustan media surgika strika in 2018!

 

[Indus Pakistan]

If Modi was really serious about securing Silguri Corridor and not just scoring domestic points by looking tough guy he would have told Indian Army to secure Jampheri Ride and then place a infantry battalion on top of the Jampheri Crest by building all weather base for the troops including supply lines.

Now I expect Chinese PLA will show how it is done after the snow thaws in spring 2018. Going to be a interesting times ahead on the Doklan plateau. Just watch this space.

There is a building already on Jampheri ridge, the question is, to whom does it belong to & will the road eventually lead to it?

Yes, it will by next year,.

 

[Han Patriot]

Guys,

The strategic portion is the plateau and not the ridge. The ridge is atually at a lower elevation than the plateau.

 

[rustom]

If Modi was really serious about securing Silguri Corridor and not just scoring domestic points by looking tough guy he would have told Indian Army to secure Jampheri Ride and then place a infantry battalion on top of the Jampheri Crest by building all weather base for the troops including supply lines.

Now I expect Chinese PLA will show how it is done after the snow thaws in spring 2018. Going to be a interesting times ahead on the Doklan plateau. Just watch this space.

Yes, it will by next year,.

Problem with your ****'s is you always underestimate India and history repeats. It is very nice opportunity to prick the shooper power wana be china's bubble.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

The road will never reach jamperi ridge,nor will it be extended forward towards it.They can build side tracks all they want to support their troops in doka la or in their own areas,they have already had a road since decades.But no forward extensions.The chinese fanboys can bark all they want,minute PLA tries to move the road forward towards jamperi we will intervene again and bulldoze it.Nothing PLA can do to stop us without going to war.If the road ever extends over doklam to jamperi IA and govt will have been proven to be cowards and incompetent.But like we slapped the chinese and forced them to back down,nothing will happen.China knows its limit.A little needling here and there,nothing more.If they choose war then they will do so with the knowledge they lose all access to indian market economically,their economy crashes due to oil tankers being sunk in IOR and they have a permanent enemy in india who joins usa-japan-australia asian alliance and completes their encirclement.Their choice really.

 

[Jlaw]

The road will never reach jamperi ridge,nor will it be extended forward towards it.They can build side tracks all they want to support their troops in doka la or in their own areas,they have already had a road since decades.But no forward extensions.The chinese fanboys can bark all they want,minute PLA tries to move the road forward towards jamperi we will intervene again and bulldoze it.Nothing PLA can do to stop us without going to war.If the road ever extends over doklam to jamperi IA and govt will have been proven to be cowards and incompetent.But like we slapped the chinese and forced them to back down,nothing will happen.China knows its limit.A little needling here and there,nothing more.If they choose war then they will do so with the knowledge they lose all access to indian market economically,their economy crashes due to oil tankers being sunk in IOR and they have a permanent enemy in india who joins usa-japan-australia asian alliance and completes their encirclement.Their choice really.

I would hope Indian troops don't run away like last stand off. I was very disappointed. I was expecting brave jatts and tall Singh's to stand up against Chinese troops

 

[AndrewJin]

I would hope Indian troops don't run away like last stand off. I was very disappointed. I was expecting brave jatts and tall Singh's to stand up against Chinese troops

they are mentally and physically weak....

 

[Han Patriot]

The road will never reach jamperi ridge,nor will it be extended forward towards it.They can build side tracks all they want to support their troops in doka la or in their own areas,they have already had a road since decades.But no forward extensions.The chinese fanboys can bark all they want,minute PLA tries to move the road forward towards jamperi we will intervene again and bulldoze it.Nothing PLA can do to stop us without going to war.If the road ever extends over doklam to jamperi IA and govt will have been proven to be cowards and incompetent.But like we slapped the chinese and forced them to back down,nothing will happen.China knows its limit.A little needling here and there,nothing more.If they choose war then they will do so with the knowledge they lose all access to indian market economically,their economy crashes due to oil tankers being sunk in IOR and they have a permanent enemy in india who joins usa-japan-australia asian alliance and completes their encirclement.Their choice really.

That's the point India stood silent for 2 decades while we built up the road network on the plateau. I believe they will extend to Jampheri Ridge now, not for strategic reasons, for political reasons. Had Indian chose the diplomatic road, there might never have been a permanent presence nor a road.

Just analyze this strategically, China now occupies Doklam Plateau, that is the highest elevated flat piece of land there, facing Siliguri directly. What is 50bil$ compared to 2 trillion in trade? It goes two ways, without Chinese goods, your deficit would balloon and inflation will increase.

Sink American, Japanese and Danish tankers? You really think you are supa powa? What do you think Gwadar and Djibouti is for?

The fact is the issue was not just over the road, it was over Doklam Plateau, you exchanged postponement with occupation. What happened to defending Bhutan? Why did you run? Your media lied for months about a mutual withdrawal, now the truth is out, new road, helipads, bunkers and stores, had been built in Doklam Plateau to strenghten the positions.

Doklam Plateau was the real prize, not Jampheri ridge bhai. check the elevation and flatness in 3D from Google maps, then you will understand. No wonder Brahma C said India lost the war but won a battle.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

And so it begins... a long game of Shadows...

One side Gamed it to minute details...the other is crafting a caliberated response even as we discuss this matter. So, it is just the beginning of a Long March from both sides.

Seen from Chinese perspective the Road Must Go On... as it is directly related to a broader strategy of changing the status quo permanentaly. China offered India a permanent settlement at a time China was weak and way behind economically from India... Indians obviously calculated otherwise and nothing got settled.

For China the Time is approaching to settle the South Tibet issue... hence the road building shall continue. With NK issue moving towards an outcome that is neither certain nor to China's liking yet... so pace of advancement will be highly caliberated. Fat Kim is no strategist!

So, China is making more calculations...since more calculations mean victory...hence more calculations shall be made.
Besides South Asia is where enormus growth is going to come.... the region is far behind South East Asia, therefore, the room for growth is great. At least three decades of growth is ahead of this region. China wants to play a leading role in it... BRI/CPEC is already in full swing.

And India would rather see the back of China in the region... complexity is very simple to understand here.

There are so many strategic imperatives involved here that China has no choice but to keep moving forward.

If the broader/proper context is understood then the Chinese drive/motivation can become clearer. BD integeration into the Chinese economy along with SL, Burma, Nepal all make sense.


From Indian perspective a time of now or never is also equally reaching fast. India has enjoyed a total domination of South Asia for past 70 years. And now India sees its strategic influence and capacity to shape events/outcome in SA according to its own liking shrinking fast..Since the Great Red Dragon has made a perch in South Asia and South West Asia i.e CPEC.

India has great potential to become a great power of global influence but for that it needs at least three decades of growth and structural reform...but most importantly no interference in its backyard.
Because till now apart from the US there was no other power influencing SA in a meaningful way... and this provided India a breathing space.

This breathing space had been a double edged sowrd and allowed the apathy and forgrantedness to take root in the policies and conduct of Indian state... Both internally and in the region.

The rude awakening of the Enter the Dragon... has a massive rethink in the military and foreign affairs of Indian strategic community.

How this pans out is anyone's guess. However, a dispassionate analysis would bear naked the fact that the China has the initiative now. And India is in responding/reacting mode.

Regardless of hypernationalistic brovados from all sides... the truth of the matter is that India is in a controlled panic mode..or better put in a high alerted state of reactiveness.

Any linguist worth his/her salt can deduce this from the media/political/military statements.

In a nutshell... we are going to see this Sino-Indian Tango going forward in 2018 with more twists and turns...both sides would do their utter best to keep the tussle at managable levels. Avoiding any fatal injuries... but proxy war shall certainly accelerate.

The Cold War between Indina and China is now about 10 years old and getting colder with small flashes of fire every now and then... SCO, AIIB, BRICS nothwithstanding...

India wants China to treat them as equals. China sees India as South Asian giant and not a global player... herein lies the power calculus... here in lie the opportunities and dangers for both... and of course external players which seek to take advantage of this siutation.

India has a strategic choice in front of it...whether to join the US led forces to contain China or to chart out an independent policy of engaging China... the time to make this decision is not that far away. 2018 might be the most critical year for Indian strategic orientation and foreign policy for the decades to come.


One fact, however, must be respected... if attacked India is fully capable of defence... Indian posture is highly defensive when it comes to China. A total opposite of its approach towards Pak.


@Horus @WebMaster @The Eagle @Kaptaan @scorpionx @Joe Shearer @Chinese-Dragon @Cybernetics @TaiShang @Martian2 @Slav Defence

@hellfire , my friend, your retort would be highly welcome.

@Khafee where are you? On special assignment again? Your views from ME perspective would be greatly valued. As... how Sino-Indian tussle has any bearing in your part of the world.???

 

[Han Patriot]

And so it begins... a long game of Shadows...

One side Gamed it to minute details...the other is crafting a caliberated response even as we discuss this matter. So, it is just the beginning of a Long March from both sides.

Seen from Chinese perspective the Road Must Go On... as it is directly related to a broader strategy of changing the status quo permanentaly. China offered India a permanent settlement at a time China was weak and way behind economically from India... Indians obviously calculated otherwise and nothing got settled.

For China the Time is approaching to settle the South Tibet issue... hence the road building shall continue. With NK issue moving towards an outcome that is neither certain nor to China's liking yet... so pace of advancement will be highly caliberated. Fat Kim is no strategist!

So, China is making more calculations...since more calculations mean victory...hence more calculations shall be made.
Besides South Asia is where enormus growth is going to come.... the region is far behind South East Asia, therefore, the room for growth is great. At least three decades of growth is ahead of this region. China wants to play a leading role in it... BRI/CPEC is already in full swing.

And India would rather see the back of China in the region... complexity is very simple to understand here.

There are so many strategic imperatives involved here that China has no choice but to keep moving forward.

If the broader/proper context is understood then the Chinese drive/motivation can become clearer. BD integeration into the Chinese economy along with SL, Burma, Nepal all make sense.


From Indian perspective a time of now or never is also equally reaching fast. India has enjoyed a total domination of South Asia for past 70 years. And now India sees its strategic influence and capacity to shape events/outcome in SA according to its own liking shrinking fast..Since the Great Red Dragon has made a perch in South Asia and South West Asia i.e CPEC.

India has great potential to become a great power of global influence but for that it needs at least three decades of growth and structural reform...but most importantly no interference in its backyard.
Because till now apart from the US there was no other power influencing SA in a meaningful way... and this provided India a breathing space.

This breathing space had been a double edged sowrd and allowed the apathy and forgrantedness to take root in the policies and conduct of Indian state... Both internally and in the region.

The rude awakening of the Enter the Dragon... has a massive rethink in the military and foreign affairs of Indian strategic community.

How this pans out is anyone's guess. However, a dispassionate analysis would bear naked the fact that the China has the initiative now. And India is in responding/reacting mode.

Regardless of hypernationalistic brovados from all sides... the truth of the matter is that India is in a controlled panic mode..or better put in a high alerted state of reactiveness.

Any linguist worth his/her salt can deduce this from the media/political/military statements.

In a nutshell... we are going to see this Sino-Indian Tango going forward in 2018 with more twists and turns...both sides would do their utter best to keep the tussle at managable levels. Avoiding any fatal injuries... but proxy war shall certainly accelerate.

The Cold War between Indina and China is now about 10 years old and getting colder with small flashes of fire every now and then... SCO, AIIB, BRICS nothwithstanding...

India wants China to treat them as equals. China sees India as South Asian giant and not a global player... herein lies the power calculus... here in lie the opportunities and dangers for both... and of course external players which seek to take advantage of this siutation.

India has a strategic choice in front of it...whether to join the US led forces to contain China or to chart out an independent policy of engaging China... the time to make this decision is not that far away. 2018 might be the most critical year for Indian strategic orientation and foreign policy for the decades to come.


One fact, however, must be respected... if attacked India is fully capable of defence... Indian posture is highly defensive when it comes to China. A total opposite of its approach towards Pak.


@Horus @WebMaster @The Eagle @Kaptaan @scorpionx @Joe Shearer @Chinese-Dragon @Cybernetics @TaiShang @Martian2 @Slav Defence

@hellfire , my friend, your retort would be highly welcome.

@Khafee where are you? On special assignment again? Your views from ME perspective would be greatly valued. As... how Sino-Indian tussle has any bearing in your part of the world.???

This was never about INDIA. These geniuses think they are a supa powa and think whatever we do is against them and they end up being US pawn This was about US all along, they are the only equal power we are trying to go against. All those pearls was to defend against US aggression, but these idiots think we are containing them. We were trying to get them onboard and develop Asia together. These people have a SUPA POWA delusion in their heads with a SUPA MAN heading them now.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

The road will never reach jamperi ridge,nor will it be extended forward towards it.They can build side tracks all they want to support their troops in doka la or in their own areas,they have already had a road since decades.But no forward extensions.The chinese fanboys can bark all they want,minute PLA tries to move the road forward towards jamperi we will intervene again and bulldoze it.Nothing PLA can do to stop us without going to war.If the road ever extends over doklam to jamperi IA and govt will have been proven to be cowards and incompetent.But like we slapped the chinese and forced them to back down,nothing will happen.China knows its limit.A little needling here and there,nothing more.If they choose war then they will do so with the knowledge they lose all access to indian market economically,their economy crashes due to oil tankers being sunk in IOR and they have a permanent enemy in india who joins usa-japan-australia asian alliance and completes their encirclement.Their choice really.

These predictions on Doklam are getting funnier and funnier.

In the Doklam region China claims Batang La, Doka La and Gymochen. But has control over none of three.

The Chinese failed to take Batang La in 2007.

https://www.pressreader.com/india/the-times-of-india-new-delhi-edition/20070803/282248071163205

As of 2017, they failed to take Doka La

But future predictions - China will reach Gymochen?


Any sane individual with common sense will realize that If PLA attempts to move South towards Gymochen then PLA will get sandwiched between Indian troops from Batang La and Doka La.

Without taking over Batang La, it was foolish of PLA even attempt to take Doka La and not surprisingly PLA faced resistance from two sides and eventually gave up in Doka La.

Its like saying PLA will reach Mexico by land through Canada and USA without taking over Canada and USA and not expecting any resistance from Canada or USA

Just because India could do a Blitz Krieg in East Pakistan 1971 Pakistanis here enamored by what IA did, think China can do the same in Himalayas.

No wonder a ex PLA colonel termed it a humiliating defeat for China:

“Despite Beijing’s deliberate ambiguity, China has apparently made substantial concessions in order to end the dispute,”

“India has got exactly what it has wanted. It was a humiliating defeat for China to cave in to pressure from India despite all the tough talk,”

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...-learned-tense-china-india-border-row-it-will

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

This was never about INDIA. These geniuses think they are a supa powa and think whatever we do is against them and they end up being US pawn This was about US all along, they are the only equal power we are trying to go against. All those pearls was to defend against US aggression, but these idiots think we are containing them. We were trying to get them onboard and develop Asia together. These people have a SUPA POWA delusion in their heads with a SUPA MAN heading them now.

My dear friend,

The strategic competition is indeed between PRC and US. A reverse containtment strategy was finalised in the late 1990s. And certainly after the 2nd Gulf War... the PRC strategists accelerated implementation of plans.

As we can see now that the so-called China Containment strategy aka Asia Pivot has pivoted back...as China has successfully created its exit routes, CPEC being one.. BRI/OBOR must be seen as what it is in its totallity.

You make valid points in your own typical fashion...with a lot of hot spice that is... but, we should avoid name calling and such likes... might be more effective I believe.

However, in an environment of brovados and counter attacks... I do understand sometimes it is difficult to retain poise...

It is after all PDF!

A strategic meeting point for all ME, SA and China... so tempers will be hot is understandable.

Regardless, my assessment still stands... the best thing for Asia is to finally become free and independent.

As of now there is truly only one free and independent country in Asia... all the rest are semi-independent let alone sovereign.

One hopes that India can see the benefits of OBOR/BRI and join as partner... it will be truly a win-win..also, it will help to resolve issues between Indian and PRC in a peaceful and diplomatic manner.

Your feedback on the above is most welcome!

Regards,

Mangus



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