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Does the Establishment realize that Pakistan's future is with China?

WotTen

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This is not an option; it is a necessity forced upon us.

All this talk of balancing and diplomacy misses the point that the US is irrevocably against Pakistan. We can and should pursue economic interest but, strategically, they will never accept a strong Pakistan. The US will only tolerate a weak Pakistan that is subservient to India. This will not change no matter how much we dance to their tune.

1. The US' top priority is China containment and they have picked India as their regional ally. To that end, they must weaken Pakistan so India can focus on China.

2. The all-powerful Israeli lobby in the US will continue to push an anti-Pakistan agenda even if we recognize them. Israel will never accept a nuclear-capable Pakistan. It is non-negotiable.

3. The Muslim world is irrelevant. The Arabs and Iranians are locked in their eternal conflict, the Turks are schizophrenic about being part of Europe or Asia, the East Asian Muslim countries are rightfully focusing on domestic issue first.

If Pakistan loses China's trust, that will be the final nail in the coffin for this country. The economic meltdown will be followed by a reduction in military budget and forfeiture of our nuclear assets. For people who think that will never happen, why do they think the civilian and military leadership cannot be bought? Do current events justify such a sanguine self-assurance?
 
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NEUTRALS only interested in DHA real estates...
Veil has been brutally snatched from their face..they are exposed and stand naked.
مرا دیس میر سپاہ کا
مرا شہر مال غنیمت ہے

Problem is IK does not give in...
کبھی تو آئے گی بے داغ سبزے کی بہار
 
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This is not an option; it is a necessity forced upon us.

All this talk of balancing and diplomacy misses the point that the US is irrevocably against Pakistan. We can and should pursue economic interest but, strategically, they will never accept a strong Pakistan. The US will only tolerate a weak Pakistan that is subservient to India. This will not change no matter how much we dance to their tune.

1. The US' top priority is China containment and they have picked India as their regional ally. To that end, they must weaken Pakistan so India can focus on China.

2. The all-powerful Israeli lobby in the US will continue to push an anti-Pakistan agenda even if we recognize them. Israel will never accept a nuclear-capable Pakistan. It is non-negotiable.

3. The Muslim world is irrelevant. The Arabs and Iranians are locked in their eternal conflict, the Turks are schizophrenic about being part of Europe or Asia, the East Asian Muslim countries are rightfully focusing on domestic issue first.

If Pakistan loses China's trust, that will be the final nail in the coffin for this country. The economic meltdown will be followed by a reduction in military budget and forfeiture of our nuclear assets. For people who think that will never happen, why do they think the civilian and military leadership cannot be bought? Do current events justify such a sanguine self-assurance?



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This book tells the story of the tragic and often tormented relationship between the United States and Pakistan. Pakistan's internal troubles have already threatened US security and international peace, and Pakistan's rapidly growing population, nuclear arsenal, and relationships with China and India will continue to force it upon America's geostrategic map in new and important ways over the coming decades. This book explores the main trends in Pakistani society that will help determine its future; traces the wellsprings of Pakistani anti-American sentiment through the history of US-Pakistan relations from 1947 to 2001; assesses how Washington made and implemented policies regarding Pakistan since the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001; and analyzes how regional dynamics, especially the rise of China, will likely shape US-Pakistan relations. It concludes with three options for future US strategy, described as defensive insulation, military-first cooperation, and comprehensive cooperation.

Read more

Reviews & endorsements​

'Daniel Markey takes the title and opening remarks of No Exit from Pakistan, his book on the US-Pakistani relationship, from Sartre's Huis Clos, a work that contains the famous dictum 'Hell is other people'. Hell, for many US policymakers, is having to work in Pakistan. As Markey writes, the degree of sheer personal animosity felt by parts of the Washington establishment toward Pakistan is beginning to have a serious effect on the clarity of thought about that country.' Anatol Lieven, New York Review of Books
 
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Pakistan can keep good trade relations with US, just as China does. It could be vested and transactional just as China's or any other country.

But throwing the sovereignty away and be a vassal state of US shouldn't be an option. When and If Pakistan take a strong stance with the nation behind it, US will respect that stance.

If one sells to the highest bidder, US will armtwist with coercive power.



How much does China export to the USA?


US$577.13 Billion

China Exports to United States was US$577.13 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. China Exports to United States - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on May of 2022.
 
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Pakistan can keep good trade relations with US, just as China does. It could be vested and transactional just as China's or any other country.

People think that the US holds all the cards as the superpower but that is not true. Two things to consider:

Firstly, the US will not like Pakistan to go 100% in the Chinese camp, so they will use the sticks and carrots approach. They want Pakistan to be substantially weaker than India, but not a complete loss such it becomes a nursery for extremist elements.

Secondly, the US always has a contingency plan. In this case, the US wants a backup plan if India goes rogue, either pro-China, pro-Russia, or independent. In that case, they want Pakistan to be strong enough that it can cause trouble to India (with US help).

A smart Pakistani government would understand the long term game and chart a course through these murky waters for the best benefit of Pakistan. Unfortunately, the only benefit Pakistani leaders seek is for short-term personal gain for themselves and their relatives.
 
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Pakistan should go for a balancing act, get the best of both worlds, US is still powerful enough to damage Pakistan economically with IMF, WB, ADB, FATF and dozens of other Fin. institutes controlled by her. Should be pragmatic and farsighted enough to be diplomatically prudent.

And that can be used as a leverage to get closer to China as well, which Pakistan is already in all aspects be it strategic, military and economic.

Yes we should be diplomatic - no point declaring open hostility - but we should understand that there are permanent, powerful elements in the American administration that view Pakistan as the perpetual enemy. Especially as long as we have nuclear weapons. Any 'overtures' will have ulterior motives.

By contrast, China has no deep ideological conflicts with Pakistan. They may not be our BFF, but they also have no reason to hate us.
 
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This is not an option; it is a necessity forced upon us.

All this talk of balancing and diplomacy misses the point that the US is irrevocably against Pakistan. We can and should pursue economic interest but, strategically, they will never accept a strong Pakistan. The US will only tolerate a weak Pakistan that is subservient to India. This will not change no matter how much we dance to their tune.

1. The US' top priority is China containment and they have picked India as their regional ally. To that end, they must weaken Pakistan so India can focus on China.

2. The all-powerful Israeli lobby in the US will continue to push an anti-Pakistan agenda even if we recognize them. Israel will never accept a nuclear-capable Pakistan. It is non-negotiable.

3. The Muslim world is irrelevant. The Arabs and Iranians are locked in their eternal conflict, the Turks are schizophrenic about being part of Europe or Asia, the East Asian Muslim countries are rightfully focusing on domestic issue first.

If Pakistan loses China's trust, that will be the final nail in the coffin for this country. The economic meltdown will be followed by a reduction in military budget and forfeiture of our nuclear assets. For people who think that will never happen, why do they think the civilian and military leadership cannot be bought? Do current events justify such a sanguine self-assurance?
Seceding sovereignty and becoming a province of China is the only way you can be sure that Pakistan's future lies with China.
Otherwise, how are you so sure China will not use and throw you at an opportune time?
 
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Theory 1) Pakistan should go for a balancing act, get the best of both worlds, US is still powerful enough to damage Pakistan economically with IMF, WB, ADB, FATF and dozens of other Fin. institutes controlled by her. Should be pragmatic and farsighted enough to be diplomatically prudent.

And that can be used as a leverage to get closer to China as well, which Pakistan is already in all aspects be it strategic, military and economic.

Theory 2) Pakistan should go completely in China-Russia bloc resulting in huge consequences, like trade barriers, FATF blacklist, sanctions and amendments in US policy towards Pakistan, just as US did with Iran or currently Russia.

But the positive sides of the US sanctions would be a more independent and sovereign nation and foreign policy, and China and Russia coming with help in cheaper oil, gas supply and China negating the US sanctions impact with strong financial help and in trade and commerce, trade in Yuan and Russian Ruble...will take some doing.


Theory 3) Pakistan should go in US bloc and with close relations with EU and ending the close cooperation with China and stop any future deal with Russia. Stop or slow the CPEC and China's footprint in Pakistan.

Yes we should be diplomatic - no point declaring open hostility - but we should understand that there are permanent, powerful elements in the American administration that view Pakistan as the perpetual enemy. Especially as long as we have nuclear weapons. Any 'overtures' will have ulterior motives.

By contrast, China has no deep ideological conflicts with Pakistan. They may not be our BFF, but they also have no reason to hate us.
 
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That's weird, you claim Pakistan's future lies with China and yet can't explain why China won't cut you short.
China has insane amount of leverage over you, what do you have on China that you think the relationship is mutual?

Where did I claim that the relationship is mutual?

I wrote explicitly that the US will never, ever be an honest friend to Pakistan because powerful, permanent elements in the US will ALWAYS be against Pakistan.

That is not the case with China: there is no permanent ideological enemy entrenched within their power structure. They will do business and Pakistan can find a more honest playing field without a built-in bias.

Theory 1) Pakistan should go for a balancing act, get the best of both worlds, US is still powerful enough to damage Pakistan economically with IMF, WB, ADB, FATF and dozens of other Fin. institutes controlled by her. Should be pragmatic and farsighted enough to be diplomatically prudent.

And that can be used as a leverage to get closer to China as well, which Pakistan is already in all aspects be it strategic, military and economic.

Theory 2) Pakistan should go completely in China-Russia bloc resulting in huge consequences, like trade barriers, FATF blacklist, sanctions and amendements in US policy towards Pakistan, just as US did with Iran or currently Russia.

But the positive sides of the US sanctions would be a more independent and sovereign nation and foreign policy, and China and Russia coming with help in cheaper oil, gas supply and China negating the US sanctions impact with strong financial help and in trade and commerce, trade in Yuan and Russian Ruble...will take some doing.


Theory 3) Pakistan should go in US bloc and with close relations with EU and ending the close cooperation with China and stop any future deal with Russia. Stop or slow the CPEC and China's footprint in Pakistan.

Theory 3 is not an option as long as we have nukes.

Theory 2 is not a good idea to make ourselves so dependent on others.

Theory 1 is the only option, but with eyes open and no illusions. It's like people greeting each other nicely at a dinner party but everyone knows they hate each other.
 
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