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Dhaka should reap benefits of granting India transit rights

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Transit deal aims to transport Indian soldiers, armaments

M. Shahidul Islam in Toronto

Policies are as smart and effective as the makers who fashion them, so goes the argument. Today's global village is not the kind of place to adopt medieval tactic to exile political leaders or ordinary citizens. Nor do we live in a planet where arbitrary decision can be executed smoothly or digested calmly. That is why some recent decisions of the government with respect to domestic handling of political matters and the conduct of foreign policies have begun to rebound. As a result, not only uncertainties are clouding our political horizon, national interest and national security faces grave dangers for reasons that are borne of hasty decision and lack of accountability.

No sooner it became clear that the military-backed regime was trying to exile the two women leaders, than protests from around the world began to reverberate and a barrage of anti-Bangladesh propaganda started springing anew, following a brief lull since the four-party alliance's relinquishment of power in October 2006.

Propaganda
Citing Indian and US intelligence sources, a Texas-based intelligence portal Stratfor -- which has the reputation of being the unofficial CIA front -- claimed on April 23 that Pakistan's Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) is working with Bangladesh intelligence agencies to facilitate cooperation between militant groups like ULFA and other jihadi outfits of the region, including Tamil rebels of Sri Lanka.

Titled as 'India: Islamisation of the Northeast', the report says "there is a growing Islamisation in the region, spurred by the ISI and the ongoing instability in neighbouring Bangladesh which is giving foreign powers (China and Pakistan) a gamut of exploitable secessionist movements for use to prevent India from emerging as a major global player." The report goes on to say, there exists a strong nexus between ISI and Bangladesh's intelligence agencies and there are growing indications that these two agencies are working clandestinely in Bangladesh to bring all the Northeast-based insurgent outfits and jihadi elements under one umbrella.
"The ISI has facilitated cooperation between ULFA and other Northeastern militant outfits; with the LTTE in Sri Lanka, Islamist militant groups in Jammu and Kashmir, Islamist groups in Bangladesh and a growing number of Al Qaeda-linked jihadi groups operating in the region," claimed the report.

The report quoted one anonymous Bangladesh source as saying, there exists "meaningful cooperation between ISI and Bangladesh's intelligence agencies in their combined fight against terrorism, at the nudging of the West, but their joint efforts to trap India may just be a collateral strategic gain." Observers say this latest anti-Bangladesh propaganda is part of an India-orchestrated campaign to obtain as much leverage from Dhaka, as may be feasible, while the non-party regime retains the power to decide matters arbitrarily without any debate by elected public representatives.

It also seems that Dhaka's umpteen assurances to India, including during the 14th SAARC summit in Delhi that Bangladesh soil is not being used by the Indian insurgents to launch attacks on Indian security forces, has had no substantive impact; India remains unconvinced.
As the insurgency in the Nnortheast becomes more ferocious, especially after the first suicide attack launched during PM Manmoham Singh's recent visit to the region, Delhi became desperate to overcome its geopolitical handicaps by using Dhaka's temporary regime to facilitate troops and military hardware movements to India's Northeast via Bangladesh, it was learnt.

Delhi thinks the strategy of using massive force in the 1980s against the Sikh separatists of Punjab can be emulated in Northeast India too.But such a stratagem can easily backfire, say analysts. Unlike Punjab, where insurgents were mostly in an urban setting, the Northeast is remote, underdeveloped, desolate and ideal for guerrilla operations. Home to over 220 heterogeneous tribes and communities, the entire Northeast is infested with over 57 armed rebel groups with modern weapons and international connectivity.

Why then blame Bangladesh? Virtually disjointed from Delhi and the India's mainstream, the Northeast India succumbed to insurgency over 50 years ago when the Nagas launched their first armed struggle to secede from Delhi under the leadership of Angami Zaphu Phizo. The Manipuris followed suit under Hijam Irabot Singh as did the Mizos since the 1960s. In the late 1970s was born the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), which has proved to be the toughest bunch of all. All these groups are fighting for independent homelands of their own and scapegoating Dhaka is a political luxury that India never felt shy of using despite the real solution being in reaching lasting political settlements with the insurgents by redressing their genuine grievances.

Although it is unclear why Indian intelligence apparatuses are getting involved in anti-Bangladesh propaganda at this very moment, some analysts tend to believe the campaign may be related to the recent government decision to bar AL leader Sheikh Hasina's entry into the country.

Pressure on Dhaka
Geopolitical experts, however, maintain that India has been desperately exploring possibilities of a transit route via Bangladesh to transport military personnel, arms and ammunition to the war-torn Northeast as well as to reduce freight cost and distance between Kolkata and Agartala. It seems that the anti-Bangladesh media campaign is designed to exert psychological pressure on Dhaka. The distance between Kolkata and Agartala is about 1,500 km. and, a transit route via Bangladesh is likely to reduce the rail distance to just 350 km, and reduce the freight costs substantially.

What seems certain is: being on the brink of loosing the Northeast to the ever powerful insurgents, Delhi's game plan to use Bangladesh as a transit has more to do with transporting military personnel and hardware to the war-torn Northeast than cut cost on freight and transportation of goods, although, the purpose does have a dual implication.
India also wants to revive subsequently other dysfunctional rail route linkages with Bangladesh, including the broad gauge connections between Gede-Darsana, Singhabad-Rohanpur, Petrapole-Benapole and the only metre gauge connection between Radhikapur and Shahbazar -- all with the aim to increase connectivity for military usages.
The arguments for military use become more impressive when one looks at the statistics of bilateral trades between India and its neighbours. During the fiscal 2006-07, Indian exports to Pakistan touched the billion-dollar mark. But imports from that country were worth no more than $ 350 million. The collaborations between the two nations are centered on reducing tension in Kashmir and making Indian presence in Afghanistan more prominent.

On the other hand, Nepal's Terai region is home to a large number of industries which were built only to sell in Indian markets. But Indian trade chambers have been vigorously lobbying for restricting imports from Nepal, arguing that, such imports undermine their own production base. Bangladesh ran up a deficit of $1.1 billion with India in 2002-03. The trade gap widened to a staggering $1.5 billion in 2005-06.

Experts say unless there is a clear understanding of what India will buy from Bangladesh to break even the huge trade gap, a transit treaty or agreement will be suicidal for Bangladesh. Dhaka must also make sure that it will not allow land, air or sea facilities for transporting India's military personnel or defence hardware due to the danger such a decision will unleash from the Northeastern insuregents who might conduct retaliatory attacks against Bnagladesh's interests any time, anywhere.

Yet, since the assumption of power by the current administration, a newly formed regional sub-group (South Asian Sub-regional Economic Cooperation (SASEC)) has been working diligently to finalize the transit, energy cooperation and other issues that India wants finalized before an elected government assumes office (see Holiday; April 20, 2007, p-1).
Reliable sources say, the decision to establish a rail link between Kumarghat and Agartala by December 2007 has already been taken. In return, Delhi offered a $150 million line of credit to Bangladesh for railway development. Besides, a regular railway service between Kolkata and Dhaka has already been announced.

While the government is keeping the nation preoccupied by chasing corrupt politicians and cleaning the so-called political mess, foreign nations are getting deals that are detrimental to national security and the economic survival of the country. Surprisingly, no one even cares to have a debate over those issues by brainstorming their ramifications. This is unfortunate, sad and dangerous.

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