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Dhaka should reap benefits of granting India transit rights

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Dhaka should reap benefits of granting India transit rights

M.I. Ali

HOLIDAY - August 3, 2007

An Indian junior minister, during a recent trip to Bangladesh, reiterated India's desire for securing transit rights through Bangladesh to its north-eastern territories. As in the past, this time too the response to the request was not positive, with Bangladesh arguing that its request for transit rights to Nepal and Bhutan has not been honoured by India. India does not see the need for reciprocity as granting Bangladesh such rights will loosen the Indian stranglehold over these two landlocked countries and India will not be able to choke essential supplies if they do not tow the Indian line.

India has made it clear time and again that it does not believe in multilateral relations among its neighbours and all issues involving it must be dealt with on a bilateral basis. The best example of the Indian policy is SAARC, which is probably the most emasculated and ineffective regional forum in the world.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, does not have any hegemonic aspirations regarding its neighbours. Therefore, granting India the transit rights will not have equal political importance, except for some people in Bangladesh who believe that it may jeopardise the country's security. For Bangladesh, the transit issue should not be addressed from a political point of view as it is most unlikely that India would use any Bangladesh route to transport unauthorised cargo like weapons and ammunition to arm its forces in the northeast.

As for security threats to this country, India does not need transit rights for carrying out mischief here. There are lots of other options open to it. On the other hand, giving India the transit rights will help Bangladesh improve its much-needed transport infrastructure and give a boost to its economy. India being the blue eyed boy of the West, all multilateral development and financial organisations are going to fall over each other to develop the infrastructure in this country to facilitate the implementation of the agreement.

The transit issue for Bangladesh is an economic one and should be evaluated on that basis. If giving transit to India is profitable for Bangladesh then it should be given by all means and we should extract the maximum benefit from it. Due consideration should be given to the fact that roads in Bangladesh are already overcrowded with our own traffic. Therefore, a completely new road system should be developed to accommodate the Indian traffic that will transit through Bangladesh.

However, as this is the most densely populated country in the world and the new road system will displace a huge number of people who, in no way, can be resettled elsewhere in Bangladesh' after all, land is extremely scarce here, the only way this problem can be resolved in the short run is India agreeing to settle them temporarily in Arunachal or Assam, where unpopulated land is abundant, until industrial jobs are created for them in Bangladesh for their return. The population density in these states is very low and infusion of the temporary settlers, who are farmers, will help boost their agriculture. Bangladesh can import these excess agricultural produces. Here, too, India can help Bangladesh by encouraging its industrialists to invest in Bangladesh. The sooner the jobs are created the sooner the displaced persons can return to Bangladesh.

Once the transit protocol is operational, raw materials can be brought from India, processed in Bangladesh using cheap energy and labour, and exported abroad, including India. Unlike India, where the strong rupee is making exports expensive, Bangladesh has a stable currency and a disciplined labour force that make it a better platform for setting up industries than India. Indian entrepreneurs will definitely seize the opportunity if conditions are conducive here.

India should also be allowed to use the Mongla Port to facilitate international trade of eastern India, including Bihar and West Bengal. The Chittagong Port should be reserved for Bangladesh as it is currently meeting the most of this country's needs and does not have excess capacity to meet India's requirements. Mongla should be developed as a regional entrepot and the cost of such development should be borne by India as a gift to Bangladesh, with no strings attached. Unfortunately, Mongla has a serious situation problem that must also be addressed by India. This can be done through the release of an adequate amount of water from Farakka Barrage to flush Mongla Port of silt to keep it navigable throughout the year. India should stop diverting the Ganges waters to central India, if it considers the use of Mongla Port important to its economy, and make that water available for flushing Mongla Port.

Many economists and logistics experts have identified Bangladesh as the ideal transportation hub for the north-eastern India and south-western China. However, when Bangladesh was punched out of the eastern region during the 1947 partition of India, the economy of the region was upset. Many political and economic pundits had predicted that time that this country would fail to stand on its own and would have to revert to status quo within a short period. The opposite has happened and now the economic stability of the entire eastern India is at stake because of the disruption of the traditional lines of communication. These lines were further disrupted following the 1962 Sino-Indian war when cross-boarder movements became restricted. To become economically viable, the region has to be integrated as a near-homogenous economic unit once again. This is in the interest of both India and Bangladesh, but more so in India's than Bangladesh's.
 
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Transit and Beyond :Economic and strategic significance

Air Cdre Ishfaq Ilahi Choudhury ndc, psc (Retd)

Introduction
Local newspapers reported in the last few days that Bangladesh agreed in principle to the proposed Myanmar-India gas pipeline to pass across her territory. There were also reports that there might be talks on transit corridor between Bangladesh and Nepal and Bhutan through India and also talks on future trans-national power grid. These were icebreaking events in the context of Indo-Bangladesh relations. In the past, whenever such proposals were discussed, certain quarters in the country used to raise the spectre of Indian hegemony or threat to national security. These people had the rugs taken from under them when Pakistan agreed to let the Iran-India gas pipeline pass through her territory. Time is now ripe to take the next logical step of dispassionately examining the whole issue of transit or transhipment across Bangladesh - not only of goods and passengers of Indian origin, but of the whole region and beyond.

Bangladesh sits at a crossroad between South and Southeast Asia. If we put this geographical advantage to use, we could turn Bangladesh into a regional centre of investment, trade, commerce and industry. Those, in turn, could speed up the development process. Despite our important geo-strategic location, we cannot effectively influence the regional affairs mainly because of our poor economy and general backwardness. An economically vibrant Bangladesh is destined to play a far more important role in the region. Our experiences in SAARC and BIMSTEC suggest that there is enormous prospect of regional trade that could bolster the economy of the whole region. However, in order to facilitate regional trade, we need to integrate and standardise the transportation system of Bangladesh with those of the region. We need to simplify and modernize cross-border trade and help free flow of goods and services within the region. If Bangladesh could become a regional hub, it could gain economically in the form of increased revenue and investment. It would also have a positive impact in the strategic equation between Bangladesh vis-à
-vis India, Myanmar and China. This paper aims to examine the economic viability and strategic issues involved in such a proposal.

Importance of Regional Trade

South Asian economies and especially Bengal's economy suffered major disruption due to partition in 1947. A look at the map will reveal that the Bengal Railways were cut at seven places and the road links at innumerable points. East Bengal was cut-off from Kolkata, the capital and industrial centre, so was the port of Chittagong from its hinterland Assam. Whatever little link remained was finally snapped with stoppage of river and rail transit in the aftermath of Indo-Pak War of 1965. Impact of this dislocation can be gauged from the facts that while Assam and Bengal were economically some of the leading provinces of British India, today India's NE region and Bangladesh are some of the poorest.
India's NE states have abundance of raw materials such as tea, timber, coal, gas, oil etc. However, they lack direct access to the rest of India and the outside world. Direct access means transiting through Bangladesh. If Bangladesh provides such access, she could earn substantial transit fees and bargain for greater market access to the NE India a region of 80 million people. Similarly, economic potentials of Nepal and Bhutan remain untapped due to communication bottleneck and lack of entrepreneurs. These two countries have the world's largest potential for hydropower. Bangladesh could be a major buyer of electricity that could mitigate our perennial shortage. Bangladesh could be the prime mover of trade and transit of goods to and from Nepal and Bhutan. Over the last three decades we have developed a group of dynamic entrepreneurs who would be ready to set up industries in the region.

Importance of Transit Traffic

At present the sources of our foreign exchange earning are very narrow mainly limited to export of ready made garments and remittances from Bangladeshis working abroad. Both these sources are highly vulnerable to changes beyond our control. We need to diversify the sources of earning. Opening up the road, rail, air and river transit routes could be one of the options. With the opening of transit traffic, there will be new investment in transportation sector by the users and we will be greatest beneficiary of those investments. Easier transportation of goods across the border will open for Bangladesh a large export market of consumer goods in the Indian NE. We already have a share in that market through non-regulated trading i.e. by smuggling. Easing of regulated trading will only boost legal trade and curb smuggling and all criminal activities associated with it. With the opening and modernisation of transportation system we can expect more investment and joint-collaboration projects from abroad, especially from India.
Huge expenses incurred at present for the maintenance of the highways and bridges will be somewhat offset by additional tolls earned from transit traffic. Major future projects such as the second Padma Bridge, 4-lane expressways etc. would become more feasible if we add the transit traffic. There would be secondary benefits such as more hotels and restaurants, truck stops, service stations, petrol pumps etc. Increased railway traffic would enhance revenue for the Bangladesh Railways (BR). That in turn would enable BR to provide better services to its customers. Transit traffic would be important for the continued growth and development of the two seaports of Chittagong and Mongla. Until partition, Chittagong port handled all traffic of NE India. If we allow the flow of traffic again, the earning of Chittagong port would increase substantially. Mongla could be developed to handle traffic of Nepal, Bhutan and Northern Bengal. There is also the prospect of revitalizing maritime traffic from Kolkata and Chittagong to Assam. The river routes had substantial traffic up to 1965, but later fell into disuse mainly due to lack of maintenance and investment. Bangladesh could be an air transportation hub too. Dhaka and Chittagong should have air link with cities in NE India and Western and Northern China with facilities for onward connection to the outside world. Thus, Dhaka could become a regional transit airport, something like Singapore at present.

Transit beyond South Asia

Once Asian Highway and the proposed Trans-Asian Railway Projects take shape, Bangladesh could attract traffic moving to and from SE Asia to ME, Central Asia and Europe. For that to happen we need to be connected with the international transportation grid. It would be very unfortunate, if the transportation arteries bypass Bangladesh, like the way it happened with the Submarine Cable Project. Most important thing now is to be connected, for to be disconnected is to be left behind. Take the two cases: Myanmar and North Korea. Myanmar was the richest country in SE Asia in the 50s; today it is the poorest. This was mainly because the military junta, in order to perpetuate their rule, kept the country isolated from the rest of the world. North Korea, the most isolated country in the world, remained impoverished and backward, while South Korea, by staying connected, turned into a modern day miracle.

Strategic significance of transit traffic

Besides economic gains, transit traffic has significant political, diplomatic and strategic significance. As Bangladesh becomes a centre of regional communications network and a cross-road of intercontinental traffic, her importance in the geo-politics will naturally increase. Her international image will undergo a metamorphosis. Instead of a country perennially at the receiving end, Bangladesh will have something to offer to others. Peace, prosperity and stability of Bangladesh will be a matter of concern not only of us, but of all with a stake in trade and transit. Our security posture is strengthened by getting others beyond the region interested in our security and wellbeing.

On the diplomatic front, transit trade will improve Bangladesh's relations with India, Myanmar and China. Unimpeded movement of goods and people will create a pro-Bangladesh lobby in our immediate neighbourhood. As more and more FDI pours in and joint-venture projects are launched, interstate relations become too intertwined to be disturbed by petty irritants. Despite long history of war and conflict, the European Union is economically so interconnected today that a war between EU nations is almost impossible. Business people in Europe have made war too difficult for the politicians and generals. Regional cooperation strengthens regional and national security. Interconnected transportation system and unimpeded movement of goods and people are some of the first steps towards achieving regional cooperation. Thus our security interest is best served by being connected to the regional and international transportation network rather than staying outside the loop.

Conclusion

The terms such as 'independence', 'sovereignty' etc. loses their meanings for a poor nation. Economic under-development takes away the national pride and dignity. Therefore, all our efforts must be directed towards achieving economic development at the earliest. Transit traffic and growing regional trade gives us another avenue for progress. Bangladesh's geographical advantage gives her the opportunity to attract transit traffic from India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Tibet and Western China. It could make Bangladesh a regional hub of trade, commerce and industries. Revenue from transit traffic could be an important source of earning foreign exchange. Being connected to the regional and international transportation network would boost flow of foreign investment and accelerate the pace of development. On the strategic and diplomatic front it could provide greater security to the country and enhance her image in the international arena. As a WTO member, a signatory of SAPTA, a member of Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway Projects, we need to vigorously pursue free and unimpeded flow of goods and traffic across Asia and beyond. We need to form a national consensus on these issues. The longer we wait on the sidelines, the more we lose.

http://www.thedailystar.net/strategic/2005/01/02/strategic.htm
 
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'Granting transit facilities to India will be suicidal' :Speakers observe at discussion

Speakers at a discussion in the capital on Friday said any decision to provide transit facilities to India will be a suicidal step for Bangladesh.The discussion on "Transit-Corridor: Implications for National Security and Economy of Bangladesh" was organised by Policy Research Initiative (PRI) at the National Press Club yesterday. In the age of globalisation, transit facilities benefit the economy of the countries concerned. But any decision to give transit facilities to India by Bangladesh may bring reverse result as India has failed to prove her credibility and trust-worthy-ness to the neighbouring countries since her independence in 1947, they observed.

After getting all out assistance from India in the liberation war in 1971, the Bangladeshi people thought that India was a real friendly state. But India is yet to hand over the enclaves, Angorpotha and Dahagram, to Bangladesh though the then Bangladesh government gave the Indian enclaves to that country immediately after signing the Mujib-Indira treaty in 1974, they said. They urged the government to think of national security instead of country's economic benefit before taking decision regarding the transit issue.

Among others, former justice Abdur Rouf, ex-state minister for foreign affairs Abul Hasan Chowdhury, prof. Imajuddin Ahmed,Shah Abdul Hannan and Maj. Gen. (retd.) Golam Quader spoke at the discussion meeting with PRI chairman prof. Mahbub Ullah in the chair.

http://www.thebangladeshtoday.com/dhaka.htm#dhaka-01
 
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It will be interesting to know what are the factors that make it 'suicidal' for Bangladesh to grant a transit corridor beyond the generalities that the PRI mentions.
 
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You will find the answer in the following report -


Only elected government can decide on transit issue: seminar

Staff Correspondent

New Age - August 4, 2007

An unelected government should not take any decision on providing transit rights to India through Bangladesh territory, a seminar in Dhaka was told on Friday.

Eminent professionals from various disciplines termed the issue highly sensitive for national security and economy. They insisted that there should be debates in parliament and public opinion should also be taken into account on whether or not to give India the transit facility.

‘This government cannot make a decision on the issue without having discussions in parliament,’ said Abdur Rauf, a former chief election commissioner and Supreme Court justice.

At the seminar styled ‘Transit-Corridor: Implications for National Security and Economy’ at the National Press Club in the evening, he also questioned the intention of New Delhi in seeking the transit.

The Policy Research Institute organised the programme presided over by the institute chairman, Mahfuz Ullah. Zakir Hossain Khan presented the keynote paper.

Former executive chairman of the Board of Investment Mahmudur Rahman detailed possible implications of providing transit facility to India, including its impact on the economy, national security, bilateral relations, and infrastructure.

He suggested that Dhaka could tag the facility to India giving Bangladesh transit rights to the landlocked countries of Nepal and Bhutan. ‘Time and again we have said that north-eastern India is a target market for us and providing transit to India means it will carry its products to that part easily and cheaply,’ Mahmud, also a former energy adviser, said.

Opposing giving transit rights to New Delhi under the circumstances, Abul Ahsan Chowdhury, a former state minister for foreign affairs, said, ‘We cannot compromise the national security of an independent and sovereign country.’

He expressed the conviction that confidence building was essential between the two neighbouring countries before making any decision on such a ‘crucial issue’. ‘We must proceed after making a coordinated effort on addressing all the issues concerned.’

Former chairman of the National Board of Revenue Shah Abdul Hannan said, ‘A package deal should be made on the issue and we must consider it from a realistic point of view.’

Emphasising the need for good relations between the neighbours, he said, ‘We cannot protect our national interests by making our relationship with India bitter.’

‘We cannot even afford to keep it [the transit issue] unresolved for long,’ he opined.

Golam Qader, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, said, ‘Signing any transit treaty will be suicidal for the country.’

A retired senior army officer, Golam Qader said the unelected government now in power could not take any decision on the issue. ‘Only an elected government can take the decision on it after having a debate in parliament as well as respecting the public opinion.’

Former Dhaka University vice-chancellor Emajuddin Ahmed said the government should apply prudence before taking a final decision on the issue.

‘We must make the decision in the long-term interests of the country, especially ensuring our national interests as well as our road infrastructure,’ he told the seminar.

An eminent columnist, Sadeq Khan said he did not support the idea of providing transit facility to India, especially considering the country’s infrastructure inadequacy.

‘Our trucks cannot reach Chittagong and Mongla ports on time. How can we say that Indian goods will reach their destinations on schedule,’ he asked.

He said the government might consider the issue of good relation with the Indian government as well as the people of the north-eastern India while striking any deal. ‘If we fail to maintain the relation, it could create a threat to the country.’

Abdul Qayum, a former inspector general of police, said, ‘We must assess whether we have the capacity to handle the situation after providing India transit right through the country.’

He said while India intended to use Bangladesh to have faster access to its north-eastern territory, there was also a chance that the insurgents of that part spreading their field of operations to Bangladesh.

‘Besides, India will expand its intelligence network in its own interests. That will also become a threat to our national security. So, we have to consider whether to take the risk or not,’ the ex-IGP said.

http://www.newagebd.com/front.html#12
 
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Maybe it is a good thing that Bangladesh is not ready for granting Transit Rights.

Though the intelligence issue is not very credible since as it is people from either side can move to each others country legally and can do what they wish to do. Transit Rights does not mean that there will be no Customs and Passport checks on the borders.
 
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You will find the answer in the following report -


Only elected government can decide on transit issue: seminar

Staff Correspondent

New Age - August 4, 2007

An unelected government should not take any decision on providing transit rights to India through Bangladesh territory, a seminar in Dhaka was told on Friday.

Eminent professionals from various disciplines termed the issue highly sensitive for national security and economy. They insisted that there should be debates in parliament and public opinion should also be taken into account on whether or not to give India the transit facility.

‘This government cannot make a decision on the issue without having discussions in parliament,’ said Abdur Rauf, a former chief election commissioner and Supreme Court justice.

At the seminar styled ‘Transit-Corridor: Implications for National Security and Economy’ at the National Press Club in the evening, he also questioned the intention of New Delhi in seeking the transit.

The Policy Research Institute organised the programme presided over by the institute chairman, Mahfuz Ullah. Zakir Hossain Khan presented the keynote paper.

Former executive chairman of the Board of Investment Mahmudur Rahman detailed possible implications of providing transit facility to India, including its impact on the economy, national security, bilateral relations, and infrastructure.

He suggested that Dhaka could tag the facility to India giving Bangladesh transit rights to the landlocked countries of Nepal and Bhutan. ‘Time and again we have said that north-eastern India is a target market for us and providing transit to India means it will carry its products to that part easily and cheaply,’ Mahmud, also a former energy adviser, said.

Opposing giving transit rights to New Delhi under the circumstances, Abul Ahsan Chowdhury, a former state minister for foreign affairs, said, ‘We cannot compromise the national security of an independent and sovereign country.’

He expressed the conviction that confidence building was essential between the two neighbouring countries before making any decision on such a ‘crucial issue’. ‘We must proceed after making a coordinated effort on addressing all the issues concerned.’

Former chairman of the National Board of Revenue Shah Abdul Hannan said, ‘A package deal should be made on the issue and we must consider it from a realistic point of view.’

Emphasising the need for good relations between the neighbours, he said, ‘We cannot protect our national interests by making our relationship with India bitter.’

‘We cannot even afford to keep it [the transit issue] unresolved for long,’ he opined.

Golam Qader, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, said, ‘Signing any transit treaty will be suicidal for the country.’

A retired senior army officer, Golam Qader said the unelected government now in power could not take any decision on the issue. ‘Only an elected government can take the decision on it after having a debate in parliament as well as respecting the public opinion.’

Former Dhaka University vice-chancellor Emajuddin Ahmed said the government should apply prudence before taking a final decision on the issue.

‘We must make the decision in the long-term interests of the country, especially ensuring our national interests as well as our road infrastructure,’ he told the seminar.

An eminent columnist, Sadeq Khan said he did not support the idea of providing transit facility to India, especially considering the country’s infrastructure inadequacy.

‘Our trucks cannot reach Chittagong and Mongla ports on time. How can we say that Indian goods will reach their destinations on schedule,’ he asked.

He said the government might consider the issue of good relation with the Indian government as well as the people of the north-eastern India while striking any deal. ‘If we fail to maintain the relation, it could create a threat to the country.’

Abdul Qayum, a former inspector general of police, said, ‘We must assess whether we have the capacity to handle the situation after providing India transit right through the country.’

He said while India intended to use Bangladesh to have faster access to its north-eastern territory, there was also a chance that the insurgents of that part spreading their field of operations to Bangladesh.

‘Besides, India will expand its intelligence network in its own interests. That will also become a threat to our national security. So, we have to consider whether to take the risk or not,’ the ex-IGP said.

http://www.newagebd.com/front.html#12


Gosh you B'deshis are seriously insecure.

Either you're totally paranoid, or you suffer from some inferiority complex.

Noone's out to take your land from you, so just chill out and learn to trust your neighbours.

National security...lol...look after your own country before blaming India for all your problems.
 
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Transit cannot be a condition for increased trade with India

The large trade gap between India and Bangladesh remains among the major problems for the smaller country as far as its foreign trade is concerned. Bangladesh’s imports from India, amounting to almost $1.5 billion, is over ten times worth its exports to the neighbouring country officially. But the volume of trade from both sides should increase to far higher levels if South Asia is to become a thriving and vibrant region in terms of trade and commerce. Rather regrettably, the internal trade of the countries in this region account for only four per cent of the trade volume of the entire region, whereas such intra-regional trade accounts for substantial proportions of trade in the case of the European Union or other groups of countries.

We find the inauguration of the India-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry an encouraging move in the direction of a stronger regional integration with new avenues of commerce opening up and increased interaction between the peoples of the two countries. The enthusiasm of the visiting Indian state minister for commerce, Jairam Ramesh, is also heartening. His forthcoming attitude indicates a genuine interest in narrowing the trade gap between the two countries.

We point out here that there are two main factors that deter potential exports to India, in the form of tariff and non-tariff barriers. While the Indian government acknowledges the existence of tariff barriers, it is not the case with non-tariff barriers that deter Bangladesh’s exports. That Beijing also wishes to increase bilateral trade volume to be increased to some $5 billion is also welcome. We urge the government to continue its negotiations, but keep in mind above all that the trade gap with both New Delhi and Beijing must be reduced and, with that end in view, look towards increasing the export opportunities to both the countries.

It is evident from the volume of Indian imports that domestic tariff regime is friendlier to Indian products. But the Indian state minister for commerce has linked trade boost to transit facility through Bangladesh to its seven north-eastern provinces among other facilities. Such an attitude refuses to acknowledge that the Indian trade regime does not extend similar privileges to Bangladeshi products that Indian products receive in Bangladesh and that the onus is on India to remove its trade distorting barriers. One remembers the case of Rahimafrooz batteries that only showed some potential of gaining a tiny share of the Indian battery market but were restricted from entry to India due to undue exploitation of an anti-dumping rule which was later withdrawn. But the battery manufacturer is yet to regain that market.

Furthermore, only trade issues, especially those regarding tariff and non-tariff barriers, should be linked to each other, not other such issues as transit. As far as transit is concerned, we contend that it is a show of India’s hegemonic behaviour that is customary within the subcontinent. However, since the issue has been broached, it must be the position of the Bangladesh government that transit to the seven sisters be linked with Bangladesh’s transit facilities to Nepal and Bhutan through India on similar terms that might be agreed upon between the two parties.

The bitter acrimony between the peoples of the two countries would only be aggravated if this exercise of boosting trade with India comes at undue costs. Both countries across the border must agree to similar terms on similar grounds for their mutual benefit.
http://www.newagebd.com/edit.html#1
 
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Gosh you B'deshis are seriously insecure.

Either you're totally paranoid, or you suffer from some inferiority complex.

Noone's out to take your land from you, so just chill out and learn to trust your neighbours.

National security...lol...look after your own country before blaming India for all your problems.

Look whose fencing the border with barbed wire and then you have the audacity to call us paranoid. India should take a long hard look in the mirror.
 
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Look whose fencing the border with barbed wire and then you have the audacity to call us paranoid. India should take a long hard look in the mirror.

Aren't you complaining about Illegal Indians in Bangladesh?

I feel the fence is an excellent Idea. I don't see why you are against it.
It will stop border crossing. Isn't that what you want?
 
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Aren't you complaining about Illegal Indians in Bangladesh?

I feel the fence is an excellent Idea. I don't see why you are against it.
It will stop border crossing. Isn't that what you want?

Then why are you complaining about our decision on transit?

Please be consistent and try to make some sense!
 
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