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Desperate Time Desperate Measures - A differential view of Pakistan's Economic

I feel that if we keep on addressing the debt issue only then we will be treating the symptoms (which is a necessity in short term) but the real issues will remain unaddressed. It is similar to fever. Where fever is itself nothing but symptom of an infection. However, if increased from certain threshold than you need to control fever first in emergency but still it will not be cured completely unless you treat the real infection.
This Fever today is life threatening,it's actually working as catalyst between damage,Pakistan and infection.
We need to treat both at same time.
Every loan we have taken in past 10 years has done damage.

THanks buddy, you identified few of the areas I missed.
Subsides need to go for good.We only should subsidize Wheat & Diesel.Vehicals other then Truck and buses running over Diesel should be compelled to pay 1000 times more token tax and sales+import duty as compared to same vehical running on Gasoline.
Tax should be lowered on medicines and every other store selling imported items should taxed heavily.
 
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A very good post and included many things which I also recommend for good economy.Our taxation System should charge taxes on revenue instead of gains for certain large businesses which are expected to earn high profits every year and have no or little chance for loss as many business claim deductions and exemptions for taxable income by exploiting tax laws which reduces tax liability to be paid to govt .

Our one problem is status which is attached to certain jobs and designations like mba, css,c.a,doctors( many women becoming doctor for getting better rishta and not practice throughout life after marriage)
and certain other jobs which not involve skills but are limited to office based jobs
Educational institution not provide proper practical training to students and knowledge remain limited to books and in theory only

Import of raw materials used to produce finished products should be exempted from tax to promote production of finished products domestically and special allowance should be provided to institutions or industries who provide training to our unskilled labors

Our public attitude and our business culture is full of fraud and involves selling of damaged and bad quality products to customers ,we should preach and give importance to ethics and customer care and quality control and govt should advertise it and educate public benefits of this and disadvantages of fraud in short and long run.In addition govt should establish new department to monitor customer care and honest attitude of businesses and if complain of fraud is made take action immediately.

Agriculture products should be packaged and preserved by using modern methods and converted to finished products for value addition and brand development.For this govt should educate landlords and farmers the benefits of brand and value development and should give incentives for value addition

Training institutes for converting unskilled labors to skilled labor should be immediately established by govt at least at big and major cities with short and medium courses from 6 months to 2 years depending on skill

Measurement of Gdp based on income is better method and I agree with you as expenditure can be made by borrowing from banks which actually increases liability and chances of default

Instead of charging hight taxes govt should lower taxes but tax all sectors with low rates and it will encourage businesses and people to pay tax.The term filer and nonfiler should be abolished as it creates fear in public and business due to past conduct of fbr ,instead govt should made regulations for businesses to submit their audited accounts to fbr each year and calculate tax on bases of such accounts and for individual according to their profession and inquiring from their empolyer calculate taxes.

When govt reduce tax rates then all businesses will encourage to pay taxes and govt should made available a complete map and money trail of how and where tax payers money is spend each year to build confidence of public.There should be separate fund of tax collected by fbr and other bodies from public and this fund should be audited each year.

Import of luxary items should be banned and only allowed to those business owner who manufacture finished products and promote training of unskilled labor

Interest rates should be abolished like japan has done it will promote entrepreneurship and businesses and people will invest money in innovative businesses instead of keeping money in bank and earning interests.Islamic system of profit sharing should be promoted instead of interest based loans for investment and risk sharing
 
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A very good post and included many things which I also recommend for good economy.Our taxation System should charge taxes on revenue instead of gains for certain large businesses which are expected to earn high profits every year and have no or little chance for loss as many business claim deductions and exemptions for taxable income by exploiting tax laws which reduces tax liability to be paid to govt .

Our one problem is status which is attached to certain jobs and designations like mba, css,c.a,doctors( many women becoming doctor for getting better rishta and not practice throughout life after marriage)
and certain other jobs which not involve skills but are limited to office based jobs
Educational institution not provide proper practical training to students and knowledge remain limited to books and in theory only

Import of raw materials used to produce finished products should be exempted from tax to promote production of finished products domestically and special allowance should be provided to institutions or industries who provide training to our unskilled labors

Our public attitude and our business culture is full of fraud and involves selling of damaged and bad quality products to customers ,we should preach and give importance to ethics and customer care and quality control and govt should advertise it and educate public benefits of this and disadvantages of fraud in short and long run.In addition govt should establish new department to monitor customer care and honest attitude of businesses and if complain of fraud is made take action immediately.

Agriculture products should be packaged and preserved by using modern methods and converted to finished products for value addition and brand development.For this govt should educate landlords and farmers the benefits of brand and value development and should give incentives for value addition

Training institutes for converting unskilled labors to skilled labor should be immediately established by govt at least at big and major cities with short and medium courses from 6 months to 2 years depending on skill

Measurement of Gdp based on income is better method and I agree with you as expenditure can be made by borrowing from banks which actually increases liability and chances of default

Instead of charging hight taxes govt should lower taxes but tax all sectors with low rates and it will encourage businesses and people to pay tax.The term filer and nonfiler should be abolished as it creates fear in public and business due to past conduct of fbr ,instead govt should made regulations for businesses to submit their audited accounts to fbr each year and calculate tax on bases of such accounts and for individual according to their profession and inquiring from their empolyer calculate taxes.

When govt reduce tax rates then all businesses will encourage to pay taxes and govt should made available a complete map and money trail of how and where tax payers money is spend each year to build confidence of public.There should be separate fund of tax collected by fbr and other bodies from public and this fund should be audited each year.

Import of luxary items should be banned and only allowed to those business owner who manufacture finished products and promote training of unskilled labor

Interest rates should be abolished like japan has done it will promote entrepreneurship and businesses and people will invest money in innovative businesses instead of keeping money in bank and earning interests.Islamic system of profit sharing should be promoted instead of interest based loans for investment and risk sharing

Excellent post brother. Clearly shows the quality of your understanding of Pakistan's economy and its issues. I request you to honor this thread with your presence. You have summarized alot of potential solutions which I was about to discuss in later threads of this series.

I request you to kindly help me out to list down the detailed practical steps required to setup an actual road map or guiding principles to actually implement these solutions. We will need experts from respective fields which can share their insights and practical hurdles.

Thanks again for valuable input and kindly keep following this thread and the future threads to come.

My plan is to initially prepare a comprehensive list of problem areas and then work out comprehensive solutions that can be implemented or atleast serve as a guiding principles to develop comprehensive solutions.
 
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I don't think IK is adequately equipped to deal with the issues Pakistan is facing. He has no control over the bureaucracy.
Exactly. He is sincere but incompetent.
Pakistan needs a guy, who is rough and tough. A guy with practical experience of Pakistan.
 
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Exactly. He is sincere but incompetent.
Pakistan needs a guy, who is rough and tough. A guy with practical experience of Pakistan.
I respect & support him but his lack of control on bureaucracy is inexplicable for me. I know he can't make amendments to the constitution or pass new laws (though I think he can if he really strives) but to control the bureaucracy should not be an issue. He should dismiss the politically appointed bureaucrats...at least that I used to believe IK will definitely do after assuming office because he used to be very tough and vocal about the corrupt & politically appointed babus but I was really disappointed when he decided to continue with old bureaucrats.
 
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Guys evident from this thread I would like to enlist it as a problems. We Pakistani has some problem with our approach which has following deficiencies :

  1. We are people focused rather than process focused.
  2. We have complaining attitude rather than solution attitude.
  3. We have biased views.
So I would like to request that kindly keep this thread free from politics. Have you ever heard the concept of think tank or actual establishment (establishment is way bigger than military). This thread is for think tanks and establishment and not for individuals. Government comes and goes but institutes, think tanks and processes remains forever. So we should stop focusing on people but focus on processes.

If someone don't like IK, then let it be if our process is right than someone else will do the job but we need to work on what needs to be done? how? and by which institutes? ignoring the physical person altogether
 
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Guys evident from this thread I would like to enlist it as a problems. We Pakistani has some problem with our approach which has following deficiencies :

  1. We are people focused rather than process focused.
  2. We have complaining attitude rather than solution attitude.
  3. We have biased views.
So I would like to request that kindly keep this thread free from politics. Have you ever heard the concept of think tank or actual establishment (establishment is way bigger than military). This thread is for think tanks and establishment and not for individuals. Government comes and goes but institutes, think tanks and processes remains forever. So we should stop focusing on people but focus on processes.

If someone don't like IK, then let it be if our process is right than someone else will do the job but we need to work on what needs to be done? how? and by which institutes? ignoring the physical person altogether
But the important question is why is it so (if any) ?
 
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But the important question is why is it so (if any) ?
That's we have to find out only then we can draft a solution for this. I guess generally it is the collective failure of parliament, judiciary and system of checks and balances. To be specific and write them down I would say:

  1. Failure of parliament to upgrade laws and regulations as per changing economical environment all around the globe.
  2. Failure of parliament to revise "Rules of business" to modernize the bureaucracy as per demand of the modern day challenges.
  3. Too much political influence in bureaucracy.
  4. Linguistic and sectarian power groups within judiciary resisting the bureaucracy to work as a single group for benefit of Pakistan.
  5. Last but not the least, absence of moral and cultural values from the education system resulting in immoral practices all across the society and hence impacting the economy indirectly.
I think above 2 are the core reasons due to which we are suffering. These are indirectly linked with the economy therefore, I am including the same in list of our problems. Kindly share your views.
 
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That's we have to find out only then we can draft a solution for this. I guess generally it is the collective failure of parliament, judiciary and system of checks and balances. To be specific and write them down I would say:

  1. Failure of parliament to upgrade laws and regulations as per changing economical environment all around the globe.
  2. Failure of parliament to revise "Rules of business" to modernize the bureaucracy as per demand of the modern day challenges.
  3. Too much political influence in bureaucracy.
  4. Linguistic and sectarian power groups within judiciary resisting the bureaucracy to work as a single group for benefit of Pakistan.
  5. Last but not the least, absence of moral and cultural values from the education system resulting in immoral practices all across the society and hence impacting the economy indirectly.
I think above 2 are the core reasons due to which we are suffering. These are indirectly linked with the economy therefore, I am including the same in list of our problems. Kindly share your views.
It is very simple,
رہزنوں سے گلہ نہیں مجھے رہبروں نے لوٹا ہے
 
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I am starting a series of threads to discuss Economic Problems of Pakistan along with the solutions. My approach will be different in the sense it will not be based on traditional view of economy but focused on more practical areas of the economy specially the trade and commerce.

The most important point I would like to focus on; I am not an economic expert but a mere student of business and commerce. The issues I will be raising here will be based on my own limited practical exposure in various industries. Therefore all learned fellows are welcome to share their views and experiences and feel free to correct me where they feel I am wrong.

In this first thread I will try to present my own introductory view of the economy in general and economy of Pakistan in particular from a non-conventional point of view understandable to a layman as well ...

Economy is measurement of a country's resources produced in particular time period generally an year. We have various tools of measuring economy but the most common tool is GDP. Economists use different methods of computation of GDP, the most common method is the expenditure approach (by combining all expenses in the economy) having the formula as follows:

GDP = Consumption + Govt. Expenditure + Private Investment + Net Exports (Export - Imports)

From computation point of view there is no problem with the formula however, from government planning and approach point of view I prefer the income approach formula (sum of all the income of the nation). GDP can also be computed as follows:

GDP = Salaries & Wages + Interest Income + Rental Income + Royalties + Profits

(It is important to note that higher the salaries higher will be the GDP hence the industries where salaries are higher (along with profits) adds much more to the economy then low income industries. We will come back to this in our future threads)

Government has a job to give a direction to the economy and has two tools for this. The most important tool is taxation which basically results in reduction in consumption and private investment and transfer the same resources to government expenditure.

During the process government setup the priorities where they suppress some of the sectors by putting taxes while uplifting others through government expenditures. For example during the last year government has increased taxation on vehicles which resulted in decline in expenditure on vehicles by Pakistani cosumers and then the same resources can be used by government probably for construction of Dams.

Since last couple of years Pakistan's GDP per capita is on declining phase (in comparison to to others). Even Bangladesh is expected to surpass our GDP per capita during next few year. The core reason behind such a catastrophic decline is implementation of imported solution to cure a domestic problem.

I believe that Pakistan core economic problems should be divided into two categories:

1) Macro-economic issues
2) Micro-Economic issues

Most of our economic advisers in past few decades were imported ones or were influenced by western economists. The core focus of the economic managers was on macro-economic levers as their knowledge base was limited to experience gained from developed economies where micro-economic issues were already resolved and the businesses and firms were already operating much efficiently in comparison to the other nations and no one bother to look at state of affairs being run at micro-economic levels.

An indication of poor performance at micro economic level is indicative from the fact that ranking of cost of doing business in Pakistan is 136 v/s 77 of India whereas despite of having big work force availability of skilled work force in Pakistan is really difficult.

In order to turn the tables we have to list down our own domestic issues and should identify innovative solutions for them that suits our own needs. My focus would be on micro-economic issues rather than macro-economic issues as the same are being tried again and again but without generating desired outcome. As per my own list key problems of Pakistan's economy at micro-economic levels are:

  1. Lack of skilled and semi-skilled labors.
  2. No culture of research and development.
  3. Inefficient production.
  4. Charity v/s investment.
  5. Sick industries.
  6. Lack of public listed companies.
  7. Lack of capital investors willing to take risk.
  8. Lack of culture of entrepreneurship especially in manufacturing industry.
  9. Lack of export support to the business organizations.
  10. Trade friendly laws and policies rather than manufacturing friendly policies (mirco as well macro economic issue)
  11. Smuggling and duty avoidance.
  12. Job security in government organization resulting in lack of initiative and commitment.
  13. Culture of middle man.
  14. Culture resistant to change.
  15. Priority on low income industries such as agriculture.
  16. Lack of value addition products.

The list is not exhaustive and I would like to add more points based on comments and suggestion received. In future threads we will discuss each of the above problems in detail along with the solution and keep it as running threads. The purpose is to learn and innovation as a mutual exercise and may be we can contribute something really positive to our nation.
I disagree with most of your stuff..
Pakistan was doing good in 1960s considering how bad it was 1950s
Nationalization killed the enterprises
But than a new policy of infrastructure led corruption growth destroyed it...

Hence when we were building motorways countries like china didn't have them !

To get the amount of money needed for that govt did a new sort of innovation ..it first dropped the interest rate and than took all the available credit off the market to finance these useless projects (which are useful now but we are talking about 30 years ago), it also decrease the inflation to inconceivable level to achieve this Rates..

Result over time savibg went to just 10% leading to lack of capital and lack of industry development ..

Productivity went down and imports became way of life and nobody cared..people like me were shouting here in 2013-16 but peoole use to ignore it and call me a PMLN hater

If fundamental are corrected same peoole of Pakistan can do wonders

Tax evasion is natural to people not doing anything about is govt fault ..


If govt fails to do sweeping reforms in next 3 years. Than it will essentially be a givt failure
 
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I disagree with most of your stuff..
Pakistan was doing good in 1960s considering how bad it was 1950s
Nationalization killed the enterprises
But than a new policy of infrastructure led corruption growth destroyed it...

Hence when we were building motorways countries like china didn't have them !

To get the amount of money needed for that govt did a new sort of innovation ..it first dropped the interest rate and than took all the available credit off the market to finance these useless projects (which are useful now but we are talking about 30 years ago), it also decrease the inflation to inconceivable level to achieve this Rates..

Result over time savibg went to just 10% leading to lack of capital and lack of industry development ..

Productivity went down and imports became way of life and nobody cared..people like me were shouting here in 2013-16 but peoole use to ignore it and call me a PMLN hater

If fundamental are corrected same peoole of Pakistan can do wonders

Tax evasion is natural to people not doing anything about is govt fault ..


If govt fails to do sweeping reforms in next 3 years. Than it will essentially be a givt failure

Kindly refer to the areas where I was referring to my belief that like you government has always focused on macro economic factors to sort out the issues while ignoring the micro economic factors altogether...

We have no dispute that nationalization destroyed the economy but even the denationalization was done almost three decades ago and still we are in same problems so we must have other issues otherwise denationalization effects must have reversed our position but on the contrary it is deteriorating day by day ...

You are claiming that savings are down as there is no money to save then why on average property market is on a rise of 30% on annual basis and from where people are investing in real estate sector? People have money to save but they don't want to save/invest in manufacturing sectors due to poor micro economic factors whereas real estate is considered as highly profitable and secure sector.

What is the total cost of the motor way? Even in today's terms it is not more than 6 billion dollars and at the time the loan were taken it was dirt cheap. For example cost of Peshawar Islamabad motorway was 22 million dollars. So assumption that we invested heavily on motor ways and took loans to finance them is baseless as is even in current value terms motorways costs less tahn 10% of our total loan .

Now the most important point you raised that import became way of life is correct but the reason you arrived it is wrong. It was not the reduction in productivity that we switched to imports but the reason was that the in-house production was costly due to inefficiencies prevalent at micro economic levels to which no body care. Business man closed down its manufacturing units and switched to imports as local production was not competitive to international market even after custom duties due to poor micro-economic management...
 
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Quick way to fix this mess is to fix the foundation. The mess that started in 1947. There should be immediate land reforms where lands that were left by people, should be distributed to farmers. All big shots that own lots of farming land, should have their assets confiscated and charged with theft.

i read somewhere in UN publication the average size of the farm in pakistan is 6.4 acres
is that data incorrect ? 6.4 acres is not too large
 
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i read somewhere in UN publication the average size of the farm in pakistan is 6.4 acres
is that data incorrect ? 6.4 acres is not too large
More people = more divisions in land = very small farms.

Guys in no way we should discuss person or politics here.

The topic at hand is what issues we have and what are the solutions irrespective the persons to implement them.

Lets have some productive discussion rather than just complaining.

@The Eagle @HRK


Thanks for the input. So I am summarizing it down. Correct me if I am wrong. You raised the following issues
  1. Incorrect distribution of wealth in the form of land lords.
  2. Lack of use of technology in agriculture.
  3. Excessive consumption of imported goods.
  4. Lack of special economic zones as per strength of multiple region.
The solution presented by you are as follows:
  1. Agriculture reforms. (I think it is another imported solution from India and I will like to discuss this in details later on) We need to analyze it to the death if it is really useful in Pakistan and if yes then how to design and implement them. It would be really helpful if we have someone who has knowledge of agriculture and land processes. Kindly tag anyone we know.
  2. Use of technology. (agreed but again we need to discuss specific solution so we will create a separate thread on this with problem and solution and I will need your help at that stage)
  3. Ban use of imported goods. Its easier to just ban but in reality its really difficult other countries will ban your export too. However, we still need to reduce import so we have to identify other barriers to suppress imports.
  4. Create special economic zones. Good point. We can start thread on specific region with specific products and then we will evaluate how to uplift the products and trade of that particular region so that they can compete international markets.
Thanks for valuable input. We will discuss them in details in threads specific to the points you raised.
You made my I said well refined :o:
And you got everything right.
For the imports it's an easy solution and it's called national pride. Make, only buying "made in Pakistan" goods, nationalistic
 
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More people = more divisions in land = very small farms.


You made my I said well refined :o:
And you got everything right.
For the imports it's an easy solution and it's called national pride. Make, only buying "made in Pakistan" goods, nationalistic
I agree but reality is we have no national pride. We have separate divisions based on sects, languages, color, status, education and many more. I wish to get united as a single nation and then your suggestion will be easier to implement
 
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