Deployment of THAAD: News & Discussions

[Nan Yang]

Who own the nuclear weapon around them?

Again. Go ask S Korean and Japanese. Who are Jumping up and down because of N Korean nuclear bomb. Go look at the polls. Don't talk nonsense.

 

[Aepsilons]

The U.S. has been giving out ambiguous signals on whether it intends to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries to South Korea. For its part, China has repeatedly expressed serious concerns and deep unhappiness about the prospect. From a South Korean perspective, this is regarded as a political rather than a military matter. Would China’s strategic security really be compromised by such a deployment?

On February 4, Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan delivered China’s first official response to ongoing speculation about the prospective deployment of the U.S.-developed THAAD to South Korea, during the bilateral “cooperative” defense ministers meeting. General Han Min-koo, his South Korean counterpart, attempted to allay Chinese concerns by reiterating that there has been no agreement between South Korea and the U.S. on this issue. Nevertheless, Beijing is exerting heavy pressure on Seoul to speak out against any such deployment, claiming that it would endanger their bilateral relationship and threaten regional peace and stability. Why is China so sensitive?

China’s Concerns

Whenever a state places defensive weapons and systems at forward bases to protect forward forces from a specific adversary, this can easily give rise to political misunderstandings by neighboring states, resulting in unintended military escalation. For China, the deployment of THAAD to South Korea is just such an apparent provocation.

The deployment would imply that South Korea is part of the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) led by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. South Korea is also developing an indigenous missile defense system against North Korean threats, the Korea Air Missile Defense (KAMD) system, which is less likely to antagonize China than THAAD, since it will not be integrated into the wider BMD system designed to counter Iran in Europe and China in the Asia-Pacific.

Moreover, operating THAAD in South Korea represents an explicit threat to China’s asymmetric Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy, which aims to exclude forwarded U.S. forces from the so-called first island chain. So China could interpret THAAD deployment by South Korea as a major military posture by the U.S. intended to neutralize China’s A2/AD strategy. In September 2013, Jane’s Defence Weekly reported a successful test of an integrated linkage between the Aegis and THAAD systems, the fourth consecutive successful intercept test. THAAD can therefore serve as a hard kill tool for the broader GBMD system. China is also understandably concerned about South Korean involvement in the trinational intelligence sharing accord signed last year with Japan and the U.S. and the extent to which this facilitates GBMD coordination.

Moreover, THAAD’s range will extend beyond the Korean Peninsula. The coverage provided by the existing sea-based Aegis system will be greatly extended by the planned deployment of AN/TRY-2 radars. These track inbound short- and medium-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs and MRBMs) with a high-resolution X-band (8-12.4 GHz) phased-array sensor system providing a 120-degree azimuth field out to 1,000∼3,000km, effectively covering the whole of mainland China.

China’s Fears Justified?

China is clearly rattled by the possible consequences of the U.S. plans to deploy additional defensive THAAD to the Asia-Pacific region. Jane’s Defence Weekly reported in April 2013 that the first THAAD was installed in Guam that month; it is intended to provide early intercept capability for North Korean missiles during their boost or ascent phase.

Military leaders in Beijing will have noted General Curtis Scaparrotti’s infamous remarks during his keynote speech at a defense-related forum held in Seoul on June 3, 2014. Scaparrotti recommended the deployment of THAAD to South Korea as a superior option to KAMD, citing THAAD’s capability to engage all classes of ballistic missiles and in all phases of their trajectories. This rings alarm bells for China, which sees the U.S. stance as intended to deter not only North Korean WMD threats, but also as a military rebalancing to Asia in which the U.S. acquires the capacity to detect air and missile trajectories over China.

What has particularly disturbed the Chinese military is the prospect of the U.S. linking individual sensors, interceptors, and communications assets dispersed all around the Asia-Pacific region into a comprehensive and integrated BMD system to interdict Chinese ballistic missiles in the boost and ascent phases of their trajectories. This would allow THAAD to penetrate and severely compromise China’s air defense zone. The Chinese senior political and military leadership, right up to President Xi Jinping, are worried that the deployment of THAAD and Aegis surface combatants in and around Japan and South Korea will prove a game changer. This is because China has numerous SRBMs and MRBMs which, in the event of conflict, could potentially annihilate U.S. forward bases; but which could be neutralized with a full deployment of THAAD and related systems.

No Game Changer

The South Korean press has exaggerated the significance of this issue, at least insofar as it concerns South Korea directly. If THAAD is indeed deployed in South Korea, then it will be the U.S. using this system to protect its forward military forces in South Korea, which are under constant threat from North Korea. Therefore, if the Chinese are concerned, Beijing should take the matter up directly with Washington, instead of leaning on Seoul and thereby fuelling the ongoing speculation about the possible deployment of THAAD.

And China should remember that South Korea is a core strategic partner, and that their bilateral relations have been growing ever closer and more consolidated, while China’s ties with North Korea have deteriorated. It must be evident that South Korea has no interest in deliberately provoking China. The controversy about whether to deploy THAAD is not being taken lightly in South Korea: we understand the Chinese standpoint.

All things considered, China should accept at face value the U.S. insistence that the purpose of deploying THAAD in South Korea is to protect the U.S. military force in South Korea from incoming North Korean SRBMs and MRBMs. China should also recognize that South Korea has no intention to be integrated, in the way that Japan is, into the U.S.-led theater BMD architecture which counters Chinese SRBMs and MRBMs targeting U.S. forward-deployed military forces in the region. Given China’s vast stockpile of ballistic missiles, which underpin its A2/AD capabilities, it is not surprising that the U.S. is incrementally building a collective BMD system in East Asia. With continuing technological advances, Chinese ballistic missiles are becoming ever more capable and sophisticated, so that with the possible deployment of THAAD to South Korea, and even with the ultimate regional integration of THAAD and related systems, the Chinese will still be able to retain a very adequate defensive posture.

South Korea represents a significant strategic wedge, balanced between China’s declared vision of a New Asian Security and the U.S. implementation of its rebalancing to Asia. It is true that South Korea hosts U.S. forward military forces on the Korean Peninsula, but these number fewer than 30,000. Again, China should take up the issue of THAAD deployment in South Korea directly with the U.S., through the recently established bilateral military-to-military channels. It should refrain from pressing South Korea to directly oppose the U.S.: Chinese interests are better served by allowing South Korea strategic autonomy, while China continues to hedge its bets between the two Koreas.

Sukjoon Yoon is a retired navy captain and a senior research fellow of the Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy. He is also a visiting professor at the Department of Defense System Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea.



Are China’s THAAD Fears Justified? | The Diplomat

 

[BoQ77]

Let me correct you, THAAD of Korea is for protecting themselves from anyone, except American who still deployed in SK as protector.

@Nan Yang : I think my idea posted here.

 

[xunzi]

What are you going to do? Bomb South Korea immediately before its deployment?

We never have any intention of bombing South Korea. But you must remember any change in the balance of MAD will have a proper response.

The question is, Whatever SK decided to Deploy in their own soil is SK own internal affair, for China keep calling other not to meddle with Foreign Affair, this is alike a giant Slap on the mouth.

China can stop trading or deploy a lot more missile to the Border, if that is how Chinese want to win the game.

We never force them not to deploy THAAD. We only warn of the consequence if they do. We respect their sovereignty but we have our own security concern. They can deploy whatever they want. We will have a proper response to protect our national security. Is that clear?

 

[jhungary]

We never have any intention of bombing South Korea. But you must remember any change in the balance of MAD will have a proper response.


We never force them not to deploy THAAD. We only warn of the consequence if they do. We respect their sovereignty but we have our own security concern. They can deploy whatever they want. We will have a proper response to protect our national security. Is that clear?

lol, the US also did not force China to respect Human Right, just warning of the consequence if they don't lol. Can you then not say US meddling Chinese affair??

 

[Nan Yang]

The question is, Whatever SK decided to Deploy in their own soil is SK own internal affair, for China keep calling other not to meddle with Foreign Affair, this is alike a giant Slap on the mouth.

China can stop trading or deploy a lot more missile to the Border, if that is how Chinese want to win the game.

First ....Missile defense do not work against countries like China and Russia Far East...like you said too.

Second .... you escalate tension with 3 neighboring countries. Including your biggest trading partner.

Third ... Deploying the missile defense will pleased it's real enemy Japan.

As you can see, there is absolutely no advantage for S Korea to deploy the missile defence And they will not.

lol, the US also did not force China to respect Human Right, just warning of the consequence if they don't lol. Can you tborderhen not say US meddling Chinese affair??

When you deploy the missile defense which allows you to monitor large area of your non threatening neighbor you are preparing the ground for future battle. It's no longer an internal issue.
Like if China deploy a quarter of a million troop at the korea border, its no longer an internal issue.

 

[BoQ77]

When you deploy the missile defense which allows you to monitor large area of your non threatening neighbor you are preparing the ground for future battle. It's no longer an internal issue.
Like if China deploy a quarter of a million troop at the korea border, its no longer an internal issue.

Invaded by radar? is that what you mean?

how's about DF-21 ? and ICBM and other long range offensive ? is that internal issue?

 

[Nan Yang]

Invaded by radar? is that what you mean?

how's about DF-21 ? and ICBM and other long range offensive ? is that internal issue?

Did I say invade? Don't talk nonsense.

First ICBM is covered by China no first use policy and no use against non nuclear weapon country. And only use for retaliatory response.

And you know where DF 21 missile are deployed? Who do they target?

 

[jhungary]

First ....Missile defense do not work against countries like China and Russia Far East...like you said too.

Second .... you escalate tension with 3 neighboring countries. Including your biggest trading partner.

Third ... Deploying the missile defense will pleased it's real enemy Japan.

As you can see, there is absolutely no advantage for S Korea to deploy the missile defence And they will not.



When you deploy the missile defense which allows you to monitor large area of your non threatening neighbor you are preparing the ground for future battle. It's no longer an internal issue.
Like if China deploy a quarter of a million troop at the korea border, its no longer an internal issue.

first of all, lets should all agree that SK have the final say on whether or not THAAD deployment were benefiting or damaging their own national security interest, not US nor China can say what is benefiting to SK and whats not

And you cannot say becuase you use THAAD to monitor otherwise peaceful or meutral country then this would be an international issue, a radar alone deployed to border would have that effect, would then a wrong thing to deploy even a normal flight radar to the border for Civil Aviation use?

China can mass a million troop in its border, this would be a concern, but not an interest to the international community, SK can mass their troop in response to the Chinese mpve, but they simply cant call off Chinese troop becuase your deployment is worrying me

 

[Nan Yang]

first of all, lets should all agree that SK have the final say on whether or not THAAD deployment were benefiting or damaging their own national security interest, not US nor China can say what is benefiting to SK and whats not

And you cannot say becuase you use THAAD to monitor otherwise peaceful or meutral country then this would be an international issue, a radar alone deployed to border would have that effect, would then a wrong thing to deploy even a normal flight radar to the border for Civil Aviation use?

China can mass a million troop in its border, this would be a concern, but not an interest to the international community, SK can mass their troop in response to the Chinese mpve, but they simply cant call off Chinese troop becuase your deployment is worrying me

A normal radar is very different from a thaad radar. A thaad radar is way above that required to defence the sovereignty and territorial integrity of S Korea.

Above all China foreign policy has been very clear from day one. Its all geared towards stability and peaceful development. China is the biggest beneficial of the current world order.

 

[BoQ77]

A normal radar is very different from a thaad radar.

what difference ?

 

[TaiShang]

Asked whether to purchase the THAAD system, Kim said South Korea "never has any plan to purchase the THAAD," noting that the country only has a plan to establish its own missile defense system called Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD).

　　His comments indicated South Korea's existing position on the THAAD deployment, or "three Nos," - No Request, No consultation and No decision. It means that there have been no request from the United States and no consultations between Seoul and Washington over the issue, so no decision has been made yet.

　　But, if Washington calls on Seoul to deploy the U.S. missile defense system on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea is highly likely to accept the proposal though it may refuse to purchase the expensive THAAD system.

Obviously SK is under double pressure from the Chinese and US side.

SK is in a delicate situation.

Other than risking being a second major front (after Japan) in a hypothetical China-US military confrontation, the deployment of the US system will create strong reaction from China that will also include trade measures. I am not sure how much of its 50billion trade surplus SK is ready to sacrifice as well as the greater benefits that will be accrued from the signing of the FTA by the end of this year.

The better option for SK now seems to be to build its own missile defense systems particularly aimed at North Korea, against which China has no objections.

As I see it, SK is a much more mature and strategically-oriented country and won't allow itself be used as a pawn in the larger China-US struggle.

If the US system was set up, the US would be the real winner. And the real loser would be the prospects for regional cooperation and development. Because the US has less economic leverage in the region (and more military/security leverage) than China, it is normal for it to try to securitize the China-SK relations. Hopefully the Korean side will side with less-securitized and more cooperative and development-oriented option.

Seemingly, there is serious internal discussion in SK. The following is about a week old.

***

Interview: New milestone set for military cooperation with China: S. Korean vice defense chief

English.news.cn 2015-03-12

by Yoo Seungki, Zhang Qing

SEOUL, March 12 (Xinhua) -- South Korea is expected to return to China later this week another 68 more remains of Chinese soldiers in the 1950-53 Korean War, a fresh move that South Korean Vice Defense Minister Baek Seung-joo sees will serve as "new milestone for military cooperation between the two countries.

"The return of the remains of Chinese soldiers has great significance in that it served as a new stepping stone of trust between the two countries by quickly resolving the historical issue from a humanitarian perspective that opened a way for going toward future," Baek said an exclusive interview with Xinhua on Wednesday.

South Korea and China, which fought against each other about six decades ago, now become partners to go beyond the past and toward the future, Baek said. The return of the remains opened a door to cure scars of the past and "set a new milestone for military cooperation of the two countries by building trust."

In March 2014, South Korea handed over to China the remains of 437 Chinese volunteer soldiers killed in the war after President Park Geun-hye made a proposal to solidify bonds with China during her state visit to Beijing in June 2013.

President Park, who took office in February 2013, picked China as her second state-visit destination instead of Japan.

According to Baek, on March 20, South Korea will make the second return of 68 more remains of Chinese soldiers to make them rest in peace in their homeland, more than six decades after they said farewell to their beloved ones and left to fight in the war on the Korean Peninsula.

He said that it wasn't until Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Seoul in July 2014 and held summit with his South Korean President Park that relations between the two neighbors ushered in a new era of "warming politics, hot economy."

To Baek, people in China and South Korea must have felt the reality of closer bonds between the two countries, especially in culture and economy. South Koreans now can easily find "made in China" products in stores, and many South Korean soup operas gained popularity among Chinese viewers.

Trade between China and South Korea surged to 228.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2013 from 6.4 billion dollars in 1992 when the two countries set up diplomatic ties, according to data from the South Korean presidential office. The number of tourists in the two nations visiting each other already topped 10 million.

Now the two countries are pushing their "strategic cooperative partnership" to new heights in the military arena, Baek said.

Military exchange between South Korea and China has increased significantly to the point that more than 30 groups of military delegates visit each other every year for regular meetings and exchange programs.

"It served to rapidly enhance military trust between the two countries," said Baek who has a long year of "knot" with China from his school days.

Baek said he was fascinated by late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping and read many books about Deng when he was a high school student in the late 1970s.

When Baek went to Peking University in 1996 as a scholar of the Korean Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), he always carried a heavy Chinese dictionary in his backpack and helped the KIDA sign a memorandum of understanding with its Chinese counterpart on holding an annual regular academic event in the military area.

Since then, Baek visited Beijing several times as a senior research fellow.

He still remembers clearly his one-hour dialogue with then Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan in July 2014 when traveling to China as South Korean vice defense minister. Baek said he was " deeply moved" that time.

"I had a meeting with Chinese defense minister... I cannot help but recall my dream since my school days... Since I began to pay attention to Deng Xiaoping in late high school days, I have maintained such attention... In reality, I became the partner of an important dialogue (with China)," Baek wrote in his Facebook posting on Sept. 13, 2014.

With the progress in defense cooperation between South Korea and China, Baek said close working-level discussions are under way to set up a hotline between defense ministries of the two countries within this year.

The hotline is expected to boost peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia as it can facilitate exchange of information and opinions in the military sphere between the two nations.

South Korea's army and navy chiefs of staff also plan to visit China this year.

Militaries of the two countries are exchanging education programs among junior army officers, and are reviewing increased cooperation in anti-pirate and maritime rescue efforts which have a peaceful purpose.

In the long run, South Korea and China should build mutual trust in the defense sector to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the region and in the world at large, which is in line with the future-oriented military partnership shared by President Park and President Xi, Baek said.

SENSITIVE ISSUES

In South Korea, controversy was raised again over a thorny issue, that is, whether to adopt the advanced U.S. missile defense system called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). Ruling Saenuri Party floor leader Yoo Seung-min raised the need during a party meeting on Monday.

Defying the need, lawmakers of the main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy said on Tuesday that it will be " meaningless" to discuss whether to deploy the THAAD on the Korean Peninsula as the U.S. missile defense is aimed at intercepting an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

"Given the South Korean political system, many talks and claims are coming in from many people," said Baek. "For now, the Defense Ministry has no plan to purchase and introduce the THAAD. The U.S. side hasn't even called for the THAAD deployment."

Baek said that if the United States officially calls for the THAAD introduction on the Korean Peninsula, the ministry would determine the yes or no only based on security and national interests of South Korea.

He said positions of other countries will not be considered important while making decisions, noting that the most important factor would be how effectively it could respond to the nuclear threats from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The South Korean military now has a plan to develop its own missile defense system, called Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) that is focusing on the terminal-phase, low-altitude missile defense against potential nuclear and missile threats from the DPRK.

While the THAAD, developed by the U.S.-based Lockheed Martin, was designed to intercept missiles at an altitude of 40-150 km, the KAMD aims to shoot down missiles at an altitude of about 40 km. The South Korean military is developing the long-range surface-to- air missile and medium-range surface-to-air missile to establish a multi-layered missile defense system.

As to the ongoing South Korea-U.S. annual war games, Baek said the "Key Resolve" and the "Foal Eagle" have been held regularly in preparations for what he called the DPRK's "military threats," reiterating the ministry's earlier stance.

He noted that the joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington were staged even in 2000 and 2007 when leaders of the two Koreas met in Pyongyang.

The annual joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington, which kicked off on March 2, are scheduled to run through April 24. The DPRK fired off two short-range ballistic missiles on the day when the drills began, in what appeared to protest against the joint war games, which mobilize more than 10, 000 U.S. forces and 200,000 South Korean troops.

The DPRK offered to halt the South Korea-U.S. joint war games in 2015 in return for its suspension of nuclear test, a proposal flatly rejected by Seoul and Washington. Pyongyang denounced the drills as a rehearsal for northward invasion.

 

[William Hung]

Let's hear some official words before jumping to conclusions. From Daniel Russell, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs:

Seoul, South Korea
March 17, 2015

QUESTION: What do you think about China’s concern about THAAD deployment in Korea?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY RUSSEL: Well, I find it curious that a third country would presume to make strong representations about a security system that has not been put in place and that is still a matter of theory. Now, you can see from my suit that I’m not a military officer. I’m not an expert on ballistic missiles. But I do know that the Republic of Korea and the United States face a significant threat from North Korea’s growing ballistic missile program. It’s a program that North Korea is pursing in violation of international law and our military authorities have a responsibility to consider systems that would protect the Republic of Korea and its citizens, protect the United States from that threat. How they do it, when they do it is something that the experts will have to determine, but I think that it is for the Republic of Korea to decide what measures it will take in its own alliance defense and when.

QUESTION: Has there been any mention of the THAAD deployment today?

ASSISTANT SECRETARY RUSSEL: I’m not here, nor am I qualified, to discuss the issue of THAAD deployment. The issue is very much in the public domain now because of the comments of our Chinese colleague yesterday. That is not part of my agenda. Other questions?

http://www.state.gov/md239351.htm

Those comments were made today.

What are you going to do? Bomb South Korea immediately before its deployment?

Sir, don't mind my brother @xunzi. He's actually a US resident. I've heard that all US residents pay federal taxes which partly funds these foreign military assistance program, is that correct? (@jhungary, can you confirm this?)

So if you were to ask @xunzi what is he going to do personally if SK accept this THAAD deployment, he might very well be the one helping contribute to this deployment with his federal tax payment (that's if he pay taxes). He does not have any choice to decide where his tax goes to, right?

Off topic for @BoQ77 : I've read that the US Congress advisors also recommended that the US should also assist VietNam and Singapore's defense by deploying these Ballistic Missile defense system in each country.

 

[BoQ77]

Off topic for @BoQ77 : I've read that the US Congress advisors also recommended that the US should also assist VietNam and Singapore's defense by deploying these Ballistic Missile defense system in each country.

What ? THAAD for Vietnam ?
That's good, another one for PH too.

See this

 

[William Hung]

What ? THAAD for Vietnam ?
That's good, another one for PH too.

See this

I can't remember if they were recommending the THAAD or something else. I also can't remember if they included the Philippines in their plan or not. But I remember they included Singapore and VietNam.

Basically an anti-ballistic missile system designed to shoot down short, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles Here are the specs, keep in mind the real ones are probably highly classified.

Length 6.17 m (20 ft 3 in)
Diameter booster: 34 cm (13.4 in); KV: 37 cm (14.5 in)
Weight 900 kg (2000 lb)
Speed 2800 m/s (9200 fps)
Ceiling 150 km (93 miles)
Range > 200 km (125 miles)
Propulsion Pratt & Whitney solid-fueled rocket
Warhead none ("hit-to-kill")

The radar for THAAD is the AN/TPY-2, a phased array X-band radar, with a very long range.Sources claim that it can detect a ballistic missile-size target at 1000 kilometersView attachment 203857

Thanks, this is an amazing system. Even with this spec, it is very potent. The indigenous system that SK is currently developing cannot match this. For their own security interest, South Korea should have the right to deploy the best system.